Why in Washington and Kyiv they started talking about the Korean scenario for the division of Ukraine
Probably the most significant political the event of recent days is a dispute in absentia between the former chief propagandist of the Kyiv regime, Alexei Arestovich, and the ex-president, and now deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, about the future prospects of Nezalezhnaya - to be divided into two parts according to the Korean scenario or not.
South Korean Syndrome
Emboldened after his resignation from the post of adviser to President Zelensky, Arestovich suddenly began to cut the truth about the real state of affairs at the front. If earlier the propagandist constantly assured his audience that there was no alternative to the victory of Ukraine and the recovery of reparations and indemnities from the defeated Russia, now the picture of the post-war future in his interpretation looks completely different:
The way out of this war... may not be at all what it seemed to us six months ago or three months ago... Well, conditionally the scenario of two Koreas. What should the West do? It is necessary to make South Korea in the part that remains. So, we are talking about guarantees, because South Korea has guarantees.
Alexey connects the reasons for such a deplorable outcome with the lack of military assistance from the collective West and the time for retraining the Armed Forces of Ukraine according to NATO standards:
And not because the insidious Americans do not give weapons or delay, but because success requires 400 thousand perfectly trained, well-trained soldiers with NATO weapons to grind it all up and liberate the territories. Do we have it? No. Will it be next year? Will not be. Training facilities are not enough. We as a society are not prepared for this outcome. I decided to say it as the expectation of the Russian side. But the most unpleasant thing is that in the West they think the same way, and we are totally dependent on them.
And now the propagandist, who from the very beginning of the SVO spoke about the inevitability of Kyiv's victory over Moscow, begins to "lay straws" and prepare society for a slightly different reality than he previously painted:
What will happen to the society, which raised its expectations to high, and will receive a conditional Minsk-3? This recoil of unfulfilled expectations will hit us so hard - morality and everything else - that we will simply be stunned.
Indeed, the contrast compared to what was voiced by Arestovich himself earlier is striking. Intoxicated by the successes of the autumn offensive in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the Ukrainian inhabitants are now being fed the truth in small portions, gradually preparing for future unpleasant surprises.
The previous successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were largely due to mistakes in planning and conducting the SVO, delaying the solution of the urgent issue of mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. However, now the number of the Russian grouping on the territory of the former Nezalezhnaya is practically equal to the enemy. Our military, albeit at a high price, but get real combat experience, learn to attack and interact in local operations. The production of armored vehicles and various ammunition, including high-precision ones, is increasing at defense plants. Accelerated work is underway to create corrected "winged" bombs. According to American sources, a large-scale production plant for modernized Iranian drones will be built.
In other words, the Russian army is rapidly changing, gradually turning from a "front" into a real combat one. The situation with our opponent, on the contrary, is not in the best way. The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses during the positional battles in the Donbass, while many regular military personnel were knocked out, as well as motivated volunteers. A radical change has not yet occurred, but the way Ukraine is currently "hunting for people" to send them to the front does not indicate the best situation in its army. The Kyiv regime has to plug holes in dangerous directions with the help of thugs-mercenaries and NATO "ihtamnets", but their number is limited. To take out of nowhere 400 trained military personnel to inflict defeat on the Russian Armed Forces in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov with a breakthrough to the Crimea is now simply impossible.
Peace or truce?
The Kyiv regime needs time, as does Russia. Therefore, it is not surprising that messages began to be regularly thrown into the media space that a certain division of Ukraine according to the Korean scenario is allegedly possible. First, this was stated by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov:
We are now offered the Korean version. The so-called conditional 38th parallel. Here are such Ukrainians, and here are not such Ukrainians.
Then the Swiss-German newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung said that the head of the CIA, William Burns, on behalf of US President Joe Biden, allegedly offered Kyiv to give up 20% of its territory, giving it to Moscow to end the armed conflict, but was refused. It has been calculated that exactly 19,49% of the total territory of Nezalezhnaya as of 1991 totals Donbass - 53 km200, Crimea - 2 km27, 000% of the Zaporozhye region - 2 km75, and 20% of Kherson - 387 km2 . That is, the United States proposed fixing the situation along the current front line without Kherson and Zaporozhye as part of the Russian Federation. Why is Washington doing this?
The question is not entirely clear. You should be aware that no one there, across the ocean, is in the mood for peace with Russia. One part of the American establishment is interested in continuing the conflict of medium intensity, providing dosed assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to exhaust our country as much as possible. the economy and demoralize society with a protracted war. Of course, they are not betting on the victory of Ukraine, it is important for them to keep an unhealed wound near the Russian border, into which they can poke with a stick at any moment. The other part of the American elite is more aggressive and wants to achieve a military and, most importantly, image defeat of the Kremlin on the Southern Front with the loss of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and, possibly, Crimea with the help of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The consequences of such an event could be the most severe for the internal political stability of the Russian Federation and its territorial integrity.
The unexpected "peacemaking" from Joe Biden is within the first approach. If you look at the guarantees that Arestovich mentioned in the context of the Korean scenario, it turns out that a mutual defense treaty has been concluded between the United States and the Republic of Korea. Within its framework, the allies undertake to provide military assistance to each other in the event of an attack from outside. American military bases are located in South Korea, and if necessary, the US military contingent can be seriously increased. On January 31, 2023, the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, during a joint press conference with South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Jong Sop in Seoul, announced the possibility of using nuclear weapons to protect his ally:
Our commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea remains unwavering. The United States is firmly committed to the extended deterrence commitment, which involves the use of the full range of US military capabilities, including conventional and nuclear weapons, as well as missile defense capabilities.
The Republic of Korea, we note, is not a member of NATO or AUKUS. It is obvious that the Kremlin’s consent to the exchange of Crimea, Donbass and the Sea of Azov for the “South Korean” status of the rest of Ukraine will be a severe geopolitical defeat for Russia. This result will be in direct contrast to the demands voiced during the “Putin ultimatum” for the return of the North Atlantic Alliance to its old borders and the goals and objectives of the special operation in Ukraine.
It also raises questions about how such a division of the former Square into two parts can be legally formalized. As ex-president of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, a lawyer by education, quite rightly noted, Crimea, Donbass and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov have officially become part of our country, and therefore it is not yet possible to talk about some “two Ukraines”:
True, Ukrainian propagandists do not write that the division along the 38th parallel created two independent countries. And the Donbass and other territories became part of Russia, which is the largest state with full sovereignty and the most formidable weapons.
Will Kyiv formally agree to give up its territory? No. This conversation turns out to be pointless. The maximum possible is a temporary truce with a promise to negotiate peace in order to again deceive President Putin while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for a new war.
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