Why Iran needs to move UAV and INF production to Russia faster

According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia and Iran are planning to build a plant in Tatarstan that will be able to produce up to 6000 attack drones a year. Russified Shahed-136 should have improved performance characteristics compared to Iranian prototypes. Also, according to indirect data, it can be assumed that cooperation will not be limited only to kamikaze drones.

Operation cooperation

If the WSJ information is correct, then a plant should appear in Yelabuga, which will produce Iranian Shahed-136 drones, which have already become widely known during the special operation in Ukraine called Geranium-2. WITH technical from the point of view, these are extremely primitive disposable products, but they have a very attractive price-quality ratio.

Built according to the “tailless” scheme, rattling like a lawn mower, the Iranian drone is capable of delivering up to 50 kilograms of explosive at low speed and low altitude during its only and last flight to the target. Those Geraniums can be launched from special containers installed on various vehicles, from cars to ships. The practice of application has shown that the greatest effect can be achieved with the simultaneous use of many drones in a swarm, which makes it difficult for the enemy’s air defense system to work.

In other words, "Geraniums" need a lot and constantly. Apparently, since the summer of 2022, an attempt has been made in our country to organize the Shahed-136 screwdriver assembly under a new “flower” brand with the replacement of some Iranian components with domestic ones. If the reporters of The Wall Street Journal and their sources do not lie, the production of kamikaze drones with improved performance characteristics due to the installation of more powerful engines will be organized in Russia. True, it is completely incomprehensible when exactly the conveyor will start working, it is clearly not worth expecting huge swarms of completely Russified Shahed-136s in the sky over Ukraine in the near future. And this is bad, which we will discuss in more detail later.

In addition, there is some reason to hope that technological cooperation with Iran will not be limited to Geraniums alone. The delegation that visited Tatarstan included the executive director of Qods Aviation Industries, a company that produces a line of operational-tactical Qods Mohajer UAVs, which, as it were, hints. Also, Iranian brigadier general Abdollah Mehrabi, head of the Air Force in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who oversees not only unmanned aircraft in Iran, but also the development of cruise and ballistic missiles, also visited Yelabuga with him.

The latter again refers us to the rumors persistently spread by the Western media that Tehran allegedly agrees to start supplying Moscow with its short-range and even medium-range ballistic missiles. The most likely contenders for the purchase from Iran are called Fateh-110 - mobile single-stage solid-fuel missiles with a firing range of 300 km and a warhead of 650 kg, as well as their modified versions called Zolfaghar, the firing range of which has been increased to 700 km, and the weight warhead - up to 480 kg. It should be noted that it is not worth worrying about possible purchases of short-range and medium-range missiles in Iran, since Tehran, unlike Moscow, was not bound by any INF Treaty and could carry out developments in this area without any legal restrictions. If it is possible to quickly replenish the arsenals of ballistic missiles cleaned up during the NMD, then why not do this?

Moreover, this needs to be done, and it is highly desirable not only to buy finished products, but also to transfer the production of key components of Iranian drones and missiles to Russia.

"Rear Raid"

Remember we reasoned that it would be nice to carry out a so-called raid on the rear of the Anglo-Saxons against the background of the NMD, creating a lot of internal problems for them, so that London and Washington would not be up to Ukraine. Unfortunately, while Russia is inactive, the “Western partners” are preparing with might and main to smash into the trash its own rear, which Iran suddenly became in 2022. To do this, the Anglo-Saxons and their accomplices in the Middle East intend to draw the Islamic Republic into a war that can go from several flanks at once.

The first direction that can and almost certainly will come from is the alliance between Israel and the United States. The Iranian nuclear program is at such a stage of its development that there is literally one step left before the creation of the first special munitions, which Tel Aviv rightly considers a mortal threat to itself. The whole hope of the Jewish state in the Middle East is to inflict a preventive air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, setting it back years. To this end, Israel is sparing no expense in purchasing fifth-generation American fighters and training pilots of the highest class. But the effectiveness of such an air raid can be called into question if the F-35s in the sky over Iran are met by modern Su-35 fighters and S-400 air defense systems.

For a long time, the supply of such weapons was unrealistic, but the US policy of confrontation with Russia made it possible. The fact that Su-35 fighters and a number of other air defense systems will be delivered to the Islamic Republic by March 21, 2023, was recently announced by a member of the commission on national security and foreign policy Islamic Council of the country Shahriar Heydari:

We have given Russia orders such as defense systems, missiles and helicopters, and most of these weapons will soon enter the country.

Apparently, this is what Moscow intends to pay off with Tehran for help in the rapid development of unmanned technologies and the supply of ballistic missiles. Therefore, Israel and the United States will not pull and stand on ceremony.

The second direction from which a blow can be struck is the alliance of Azerbaijan and Turkey with the Anglo-Saxons standing behind them. How we detail told Previously, Tehran has many problems with internal separatism, among which one of the biggest is South Azerbaijan. This is an Iranian province populated predominantly by ethnic Azerbaijanis, who, after Ankara's success in building the pan-Turkist project of the Great Turan, began to look in that direction.

At present, the last stumbling block in the way of obtaining a land transport corridor from Turkey to Azerbaijan and further to the Caspian through the territory of Armenia outside its jurisdiction is the position of Yerevan. After that, the alignment of forces in Transcaucasia will change dramatically in favor of Ankara and worsen simultaneously for Tehran and Moscow. In 2020, Iran did not interfere in the course of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, apparently following the advice of some of its homegrown “experts and analysts” to sit by the river and wait for the enemy’s corpse to float downstream.

Today, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, who frankly “leaked” the NKR to Azerbaijan, speaks in no uncertain terms about the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from there. This “little pig” will either hand over to the alliance of Ankara and Baku what they want as winners, or provoke them into a military solution to the problem and once again “merge”. And now in Iran they are seriously discussing the issue of bringing their troops into the territory of Armenia to protect its sovereignty. This could turn out to be another CBO. It is not difficult to guess that the armed conflict in this case will rapidly internationalize to the delight of Israel, the United States and Great Britain, who will be able to fight against Iran by proxy. At the same time, it is quite obvious that Iran's military infrastructure, its defense plants, etc. will be hit by high-precision weapons. After that, South Azerbaijan and other problematic regions of Iran will be shaken.

This will be extremely unprofitable for Russia, which has just begun deep military-technical cooperation with Tehran. Logic suggests that in order to increase the national security of both countries, the production process of Iranian UAVs and ballistic missiles should be duplicated in the Russian Federation, which is already covered from missile attacks by the “nuclear umbrella”. And preferably faster.
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  1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 8 February 2023 10: 41
    Without the participation of Azerbaijan, the North-South transport corridor will most likely not take place. How relations between Iran and Azerbaijan deteriorated sharply at the request of the United States (
  2. Vlad Burchilo Offline Vlad Burchilo
    Vlad Burchilo (Vlad Burchilo) 8 February 2023 11: 50
    The author, on the points: "organize production" of the American State Department: "DOES NOT have data", and reporters have data. "It's interesting the girls are dancing."
    2 "called Fateh, North Korean, a degraded version of the Israeli:" Eitan ", firing range 300 km"
    The Russian OPTR "Iskander" has a firing range of up to 500 km. Why build a plant to produce obsolete OPTR when they produce their own with better characteristics? It is not logical.
    You need to trust different reporters less, and turn on your head.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 8 February 2023 20: 40
      And, if you need a range of 300 km, then a heavier warhead will reduce the range of 500 km of Iskander.
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 8 February 2023 12: 52
    And now in Iran they are seriously discussing the issue of bringing their troops into the territory of Armenia to protect its sovereignty.

    Yes, you used to laugh at our allies like North Korea and Iran. But the United States and Ukraine are no longer funny.
    In this case, too, Iran, having moved a group of more than 100 people to the Transcaucasus, secured Russia for the time of the NWO.

    After that, the alignment of forces in Transcaucasia will change dramatically in favor of Ankara and worsen simultaneously for Tehran and Moscow.

    Author, wake up, Turkey did not support Azerbaijan in its latest escapades even with rhetoric. She is nowhere without Russia.
    Have you noticed such a "trifle" as the last earthquake in Turkey? Or failing to appreciate its consequences?
    The WB cannot "shake" Transcaucasia on its own, there are no resources. She had only one resource left - agents formed over the centuries, working for generations. So recently, the pro-British group in Turkey has been squeezed out of decision-making and leverage on politics and the Turkish Armed Forces. And after the earthquake, all the remnants of "dreams" about the Great Turan and the organization of chaos in the Transcaucasus will vanish like morning fog. 5 years minimum. And then it will be too late, and there will be no one to promote these ideas.
    The United States will not seriously climb into this topic. Their main problems are China and India. It is important for them to get out of the Ukrainian adventure with minimal losses. And on the agenda is a change in the power group, which began somewhere in March last year.
    The US has a debt ceiling problem on its nose. This was easy to foresee, having read the rules that imputed McCarthy when elected speaker. Why did you think he was voted 15 times?
    As for the transfer of production of UAVs and missiles from Iran to the Russian Federation, there are two reasons:
    1. These products are primitive, and therefore do not have a long-term perspective, but they are cheap and against the weak air defense of Ukraine and Eastern Europe (and not only Eastern Europe) they are quite effective. Therefore, it makes no sense to divert the already ruined forces of designers and production workers to solving this problem. They are engaged in the creation of promising types of weapons, which they will then share with Iran. Iran has recently received a sample of a rocket surprisingly similar to the Dagger. Well, maybe it doesn't fly that far, but Iran's goals are not the same as those of Russia, they will have enough.
    2. Investments are needed for the urgent deployment of production. Under Nabiullina and Siluanov, this will be a problem. And from Iran they will bring documentation and equipment, tools, equipment.
    With the change of the economic model, the issue is gradually being resolved. Partly by Mishustin, who has already done a lot, partly by a new power group in the United States, replacing the Bidonskaya. They also do not need the Global Financiers and the Bretton Woods system. They will be demolished.
    And without the Bretton Woods system, our liberals will quickly be blown away, Nabiullina and Siluanov will leave automatically, because they are not on their own.
    So, together with the "appraisers" of the United States, we will defeat the liberals. And only then we will fight with the "appraisers". Such is life, such is the power.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 8 February 2023 14: 05
      (Boris) Basically agree with you. A few in particular. By creating the "Great Turan", Turkey is confronted directly with the Russian Federation, and here it is not very bright for her to win, but also Turkey is not accepted into the EU, which repels from the EU, and even separatist Kurds with Syrian kneading from the USA .. Here she is at a crossroads. And a situational alliance of "outcasts" is being formed: the Russian Federation, Iran and Turkey. As they say, the temporary is often the most durable. At this point, Israel finds itself in the fifth corner, and how it will get out is already a big problem, because the United States with the PRC, and the Russian Federation and Ukraine, it gets stuck, but it will not be so handy to be distracted.
      According to Geraniums-Shaheeds -132, -136. Yes, they are simple, but the point is that simple and massive ones win over expensive and "fancy" piece ones, like a Kalashnikov assault rifle: simple, tenacious and massive. For the engine, you can use "printed on the printer" one-time rotary ICEs of the Wankel type, simple, light and powerful. Their weak point is small engine hours, even a plus, for flying up to 10 hours. About Mishustin, there is no need to build high hopes on him, this is also from the "liberal" clip, only not so bright. Yeltsin's ambassador, the liberals are on the main rudders of the Russian Federation - financial, economic, cultural and educational, judicial and constitutional, and until this underwater reef, the ship, moves, Russia will stand still or even sink, which is what happens in the long term.
      1. Nelton Offline Nelton
        Nelton (Oleg) 8 February 2023 14: 26
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        About Mishustin, there is no need to build high hopes on him, this is also from the "liberal" clip, only not so bright. Yeltsin's ambassador, the liberals are on the main rudders of the Russian Federation - financial, economic, cultural and educational, judicial and constitutional, and until this underwater reef, the ship, moves, Russia will stand still or even sink, which is what happens in the long term.

        In economic terms, Russia does not stand still at all, but is developing quite well.
        For the conditions that were and are, + suddenly arise due to foreign policy factors - it is developing very well - it is holding on - and developing again.

        Everything is clear with the development vectors for the next 3-4 years.
        Localization and infrastructure to the east.

        Here, an unpleasant situation may arise further, that everything that was heroically localized is inferior to world analogues in terms of quality / price.
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 8 February 2023 14: 52
          Replica. Russia is developing at 1-3% per year, this is not development, it is, at best, standing still. According to the capabilities of the Russian Federation, it should develop many times faster, but there is no money for development, everyone goes offshore and is kept in different "funds", and when necessary, they are not there - this is for those liberals, essentially the fifth column in the Russian Federation. So you can continue on in all main directions ...
          1. Nelton Offline Nelton
            Nelton (Oleg) 8 February 2023 16: 24
            Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
            Russia develops at 1-3% per year

            Development - it is not only in% per year.
            This is an increase in the depth of oil refining. gasification n/a.
            construction of housing and infrastructure.
            Let's say in 2023 there will most likely be a decline in residential construction after the record of 2022. But everything built in 2023 will be added to what was built earlier, and the accumulation of housing / roads, etc. is the same development.
            I don’t know where there is a statistic on the number of swimming pools and indoor skating rinks per capita - and their number is growing every year.
            The development of new technologies and products is the most important aspect that is not amenable to immediate statistical assessments.
            All this takes place, and all this is the same development.

            As for % per year, these figures must be handled very carefully.
            Neither natural comparisons nor monetary comparisons are ideal.

            More or less acceptable was such a methodology - the volume of GDP in rubles is converted into $, compared with the year / years when there was a comparable oil price,
            (2021 - 2018 - 2007, OPEC barrel price ~70)
            and what was shown at the same interval - both the world as a whole and the control group of countries.
            In the control group of countries, I included Brazil, Mexico and Turkey.
            Tables of GDP, GDP PC in $ by country - years are available on the WB and IMF websites.
            And God forbid using data in PPP.
            1. boriz Offline boriz
              boriz (boriz) 8 February 2023 17: 54
              It is really necessary to evaluate the figure of monetization of the economy. It should ideally be around 100% of GDP (real).
              In the West (especially in the USA), this figure has long and strongly exceeded 100%, especially considering that transactions with meaningless pieces of paper such as derivatives are included in GDP. The efficiency of investments in the West is extremely low and is constantly declining.
              We have a monetization of 40%, loans at a normal percentage are not available. This is the policy of the Central Bank. In addition, banks require more collateral for a loan than the loan itself. Therefore, it is more profitable to bankrupt the borrower and sell all assets. Banking raid.
              The pre-monetization of the economy will give unproblematic real GDP growth of about 7% within 5-7-9 years, even without changing the economic model. And during this time, the model can be changed without tension.
              1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
                Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 8 February 2023 20: 58
                Monetization is a conversation about nothing. It is different in different leading countries, but their economy is developing quite successfully. There should not be too much or too little money in circulation, but just enough so that inefficient enterprises go bankrupt, and efficient ones work with normal profits with low inflation in the country.
            2. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
              Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 8 February 2023 20: 51
              The volume of GDP, as an accounting unit, also suffers from shortcomings. For example, you can increase the production of hamburgers by 1 billion, or you can set up the production of scarce microcircuits for the same 1 billion. The difference, in my opinion, is tangible, but it will be taken into account equally.
          2. boriz Offline boriz
            boriz (boriz) 8 February 2023 17: 44
            Actually since 2012. the economy falls by 1 - 2%. This is glossed over with games with statistics, but the fall in the standard of living of the population cannot be hidden.
            Only very recently have there been signs of growth in those sectors that are poorly accessible to state control. Not counting, of course, the defense industries, which receive injections from the budget as part of the decree on mobilization. That is why the decree will not be canceled. In addition, there are also closed articles. What's in them, we don't know.
            Really big growth will begin only after the start of domestic investment. That is, after the change of economic managers, the separation of our liberals from the IMF.
            1. Nelton Offline Nelton
              Nelton (Oleg) 8 February 2023 17: 58
              Quote: boriz
              since 2012 the economy falls by 1 - 2%. This is glossed over with games with statistics, but the fall in the standard of living of the population

              The standard of living of the population depends not only on the economy, but also on the price of a barrel.
              2011-2014 were anomalous in this regard, which gave a surge in living standards.
              Especially among those very "liberals" who were spinning in the sphere of buy and sell.

              For correct estimates, the easiest way to offset the impact of the cost of a barrel is to compare years with a comparable price.
              1. boriz Offline boriz
                boriz (boriz) 8 February 2023 19: 13
                The beginning of the surge in the economy was not in 2011, at the beginning of the XNUMXs, when (after the default) Primakov, Gerashchenko, Maslyukov were temporarily admitted to the economy. They increased monetization and GDP growth became such that Gref had to mask it with statistics. Then the oil rose.
                And in the 1990s, monetization reached 4%. The work of enterprises was generally impossible, they switched to barter, and wage lags went off scale for 1,5 years. I found this while working as a foreman and I remember it well.
                1. Nelton Offline Nelton
                  Nelton (Oleg) 8 February 2023 19: 29
                  Quote: boriz
                  The beginning of the surge in the economy was not in 2011, at the beginning of the XNUMXs .... Then oil already rose.

                  That's just from the beginning of the XNUMXs, oil has been flooded up with a swift jack.
                  in 2008 there was an adjustment, 2011-2014 maximum values, then a drawdown.
                  And all the nominal indicators of the economy are strictly according to the same schedule.

                  where the rise in oil prices-there is the growth of the economy.
                  where the maximum values ​​- there is the peak of the standard of living of citizens.
                  And it is difficult to understand where oil is and where it is not.
                2. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
                  Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 8 February 2023 21: 04
                  Under Primakov, GDP growth did not occur as a result of monetization, which increased, but as a result of an increase in production at our enterprises, since the dollar exchange rate rose sharply, which limited imports, and also as a result of an increase in oil prices on the world market, which increased foreign exchange earnings, which was partially exchanged for rubles.
          3. vladivan Offline vladivan
            vladivan (Vladimir) 8 February 2023 18: 52
            And 2 trillion rubles were paid to banks for a loan that the Moscow Region did not conclude contracts with the military-industrial complex. How many shells can be produced for 2 trillion rubles? I found data from 10,15 to 20 million ye.
      2. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 8 February 2023 17: 36
        Mishustin is not a liberal at all. And he has already done a lot. It's just not very visible and not advertised noisily.
        Unnoticed, the Russian Federation got to the 10th place in the rating for the digitalization of public administration.
        Preparation of documents on time was reduced by 8 times. And this is the strongest undermining under the bureaucracy. Even before, they could be painlessly reduced by 70 percent. And now ....
        Well, within the framework of the decree on mobilization, he does a lot. According to the tasks and directions, "curators" appeared. This means that the official is responsible for the results of the task, the project.
        But one of the "achievements" of the 1990s was, in fact, the complete "presumption of irresponsibility" of the administrative apparatus.
        It's just that the country's economy is still in the hands of the liberals. But (precisely according to the decree on mobilization), a parallel circuit is being created for setting and fulfilling tasks. Which will soon become mainstream.
      3. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 8 February 2023 18: 04
        Here she is at the crossroads. And a situational alliance of "outcasts" is being formed: the Russian Federation, Iran and Turkey.

        Well, what is the union of outcasts? Do you not notice how Russia is supported by the Arabs (KSA, Qatar, UAE), and Latin America, and Africa? China, India? Yes, without substituting, but without it, we would have had a very difficult time.
        Latin America Sends USA ALL! Create a single currency, send the West about helping Ukraine. Panama sent the United States to demand that no Iranian courts be allowed through the canal.
        About simple and cheap weapons, I, it seems, clearly wrote. The Russian Federation was preparing for a war against advanced weapons. These types of weapons are expensive. Therefore, they will produce them. Against Ukraine and Eastern Europe - a ride. Something more serious is needed against the United States (and possibly France, Germany, the World Bank). But we also have this.
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 8 February 2023 13: 15
    Iran should not withdraw the production of UAVs and INF to Russia, but accelerate the creation of nuclear weapons
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 8 February 2023 13: 50
    IMHO, some kind of "socialist" fantasies.

    Iran needs to quickly withdraw the production of UAVs and INF missiles to Russia

    Yeah. Will output. And it will remain without UAVs and INF. Because the personnel, technologies and capacities will be with the "uncle", and not with Iran.
    And then once again, and the logistics will be interrupted, the managers will optimize, the Jews will hit Iran and that's it. No second factory, no UAV, everything is with the "uncle"

    In reality, it is more profitable for Iran to build everything at home, raise workers, engineers, designers, build protection, and then sell it to everyone. And greedy optimizers are head-axes, as they usually do.
    And Russia should have its own UAVs and INF ...
  6. wlkw Offline wlkw
    wlkw (Vladimir) 13 February 2023 14: 08
    The issue with Turkey was closed by an earthquake, so the article suddenly lost its sharpness.
    Kipish is canceled.
  7. Pilot Offline Pilot
    Pilot (Pilot) 10 March 2023 18: 00
    But what about the cunning plan? Where is the multipath? New equipment is only for parades, there are no UAVs, the Chinese people are buying. There are no satellites in the required number either ???