The Diplomat: Europeans are hardly ready to fight China

February 6 2023 1

The European members of the North Atlantic Alliance are trying to deploy their power in the Asia-Pacific region, but it is difficult and slow, writes The Diplomat.

For example, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the European Union have published their own Indo-Pacific doctrines; and the UK has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group in the region.

NATO members held their first dedicated debate on Taiwan issues; and the German Air Force took part in a multinational exercise hosted by Australia. Just last month, London and Tokyo signed an agreement that would allow the UK to station troops in Japan.

Scholars have also written that NATO should play a more active role in countering China. In even more detail, a recent RAND report shows how the United States and France can improve military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

But will European countries really take on an important role in securing potential key hotspots in the Indo-Pacific region? And, for example, will European military personnel really appear in Taiwan? Given limited resources and lack of defense commitments, such an effort is unlikely.

- The Diplomat believes.

The ability of the United States to defeat the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is also highly questionable, especially when it comes to the area in the immediate vicinity of the Chinese coast. For example, the National Defense Strategy Commission, commissioned by Congress in 2018, warned that in a war between China and the United States over Taiwan, the United States "could face a crushing military defeat."

Such risk appears to be perceived as increasing over time. A 2020 survey of American national security experts by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that only 54 percent of respondents believe the United States will win the conflict with China in 2030, compared to 79 percent. that believed in the victory of the United States a year earlier

writes The Diplomat.

If the US itself is in danger of losing the war with China over Taiwan, or at least suffering heavy losses, the European military has all the more reason to fear, since their military capabilities do not look particularly formidable compared to the United States.