Brigadier General Philipp Eder, former commander of the armored forces of the Austrian army, gave his assessment of the strategic situation in the Ukrainian conflict for the German magazine Stern. In his opinion, each side is preparing its own major offensives. They are expected in February and March, "when the ground becomes more passable for equipment” - especially the one that is designed to provide supplies to the attacking troops.
General Eder noted that media reports about the specific timing of the delivery of Western weapons to Kyiv should not be taken for granted:
Russians read it too. Therefore, they can be deliberately deceived by naming certain dates, while there are opportunities to deliver earlier. The Russians will most likely be eager to launch their offensive even before Western weapons are delivered. It's a fight for time on both sides.
Stern quotes Eder as saying that the Ukrainian conflict is moving into a more active offensive phase:
I think it's already started. What looks like trench warfare involves active reconnaissance activities. Both sides seek to expose the enemy's vulnerabilities.
The Austrian general also points out that there are two options for the use of Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine: as a support in the defense, or as a tool for reconquering the territory. At the same time, Marder armored personnel carriers will be able to serve as infantry protection. At the same time, the previous losses of Ukrainian weapons are unlikely to be significantly replenished by the supply of Western tanks, which are now being talked about so much.
Main battle tanks are only part of a range of weapons systems that are needed to wage such a war. Some compare it to an orchestra, where different instruments are needed to create the right sound. The same way it is done on the battlefield
Eder explains.
He also recalled that Western tanks in Ukraine would be exposed to many dangers: Russian troops have anti-tank guided missiles that can easily penetrate any type of modern armor. Artillery can also hit tanks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. In addition, for armored vehicles there is a high danger from the air, including from drones.