Why Russia Shouldn't Delay With a Large-Scale Offensive in Ukraine

There is such a popular genre in our country as the interpretation of the Supreme Will, based on various factors, up to the movement of eyebrows caught by the lens of a video camera and the significant glances of President Putin. Experts, analysts and other predictors, it seems to them, penetrate into the depths of Vladimir Vladimirovich's consciousness and then, with the pathos of true experts, explain to the general public all his strategic plans. As a rule, none of this comes to fruition, but who cares? One "HPP" is followed by a new one.

The writer of the lines was prompted to write this note by a series of publications trying to explain why there will be no large-scale offensive of the RF Armed Forces in Ukraine. Their anonymous author slightly scolded the “patriotic and vociferous Russians”, who, they say, call for general mobilization, without which it is allegedly impossible to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while they themselves hope to sit out in the rear, and the victory must be forged by real professionals. The general message is this: you just need to sit with a tit in your hands and wait until the corpse of the enemy floats past with the flow. I would like, as a “patriotic and vociferous Russian”, to argue in absentia with the stated theses, which seem to be false, misleading readers.

"Toxic" Ukrainian asset

So, the first deliberately false thesis is that the war in Ukraine is supposedly every month more and more heavy burden on the shoulders of decrepit grandfather Joe, who sleeps and sees how to throw the Square on the shoulders of President Putin. Sorry, of course, but the situation is exactly the opposite!

American military assistance to Ukraine can be conditionally divided into two types. The first is real money that goes directly to maintaining the stable operation of the military-bureaucratic machine of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as to pay for the services of numerous foreign mercenaries and other NATO “Ihtamnets”. This is the “oil” without which its gears simply cannot spin. Without money, for thanks, on patriotism alone, no one will fight against Russia in his mind. How much specifically does it take evergreens? The proxy war with Russia at the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine costs Grandpa Joe a purely symbolic amount. But with the militarytechnical help is much more interesting.

The fundamental point is that weapons and ammunition already produced and paid for from the budget are sent to Ukraine. Moreover, some of this obsolete armored vehicles will first have to be removed from storage and prepared by loading the capacities of US defense plants and NATO countries. Moreover, in order to compensate for their loss on the Ukrainian fronts, the Western and, in particular, the American military-industrial complex is starting to produce more and more new, modern weapons and ammunition. Factories are being mothballed, new money is flowing into the economy. Let us note how the Lockheed Martin Corporation perked up when substantive talks began about the transfer of the F-16 to the Kyiv regime, and promised to increase the production of these fighters. Associate Professor of the Faculty of World Economy and International policy HSE University Andrey Suzdaltsev commented on the scheme as follows:


In other words, the longer the conflict drags on and the more violent the conflict on the territory of the former Independent, the more profitable it is for the military-industrial complex of the United States and Western European countries, which are the main beneficiaries. The aspirations of American and especially European taxpayers for Grandpa Joe are a factor that can be completely neglected. Therefore, the assertion that President Biden still dreams of throwing a "toxic" Ukrainian asset under Putin's feet is, to put it mildly, incorrect.

"Red Lines"

Another dangerous misconception is that Grandpa Joe would never, ever dare to cross the “red lines” drawn by President Putin. Strictly speaking, what specific "red lines" are we talking about?

Let's remember how it all started almost a year ago. On February 24, 2022, President Putin publicly issued a warning to someone as follows:


However, this threat turned out to be rather vague, since neither the addressee nor possible sanctions were named. Apparently, the warning was sent to the NATO bloc, but, as we see, the supply of heavy weapons and the training of Ukrainian military personnel on the territory of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance has been going on for a very long time, and only at an increasing pace. On September 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin again issued a public warning:


And again it didn't work. German Foreign Minister Burbock is now directly saying that Europe is at war against Russia. NATO member countries today are substantively discussing the transfer to the Kyiv regime of not only modern heavy tanks, but also long-range missiles and Western-made combat aircraft. Here is the President of Lithuania, Nauseda, who publicly doubted the existence of “red lines”:


Crossing the next "red line", according to Nauseda, should consist precisely in the transfer of long-range missiles and modern fighter jets to Ukraine:


So where exactly do they pass then and what exactly awaits the enemy if they cross?

Are our expectations our problems?

As you can see, sitting on the defensive and waiting for an enemy corpse to float past on the river is a very bad idea. While we are inactive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasing their numbers, training and rearming. No one in Kyiv is going to give up the Donbass, the Sea of ​​Azov and the Crimea, which means that a further war with Ukraine cannot be avoided, and the initiative will then be on the side of the enemy. A powerful strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Azov region can, in the worst case, lead to a forced “regrouping” of the RF Armed Forces from Crimea.

That is why the attacks on the “patriotic and vociferous Russians” who call for an end to the enemy as quickly as possible, not allowing him to grow even stronger, are puzzling. The longer the conflict drags on, the more expensive Russia and Ukraine itself will pay for the elimination of the Nazi regime in Kyiv. Since we cannot fight with skill, then we must делать this is still a number.

Also, injections in the spirit of the fact that someone else, trained and professional, should fight for the “vociferous and patriotic” seem completely inappropriate. According to the personal conviction of the author of the lines, everyone should do their own thing, and do it well. The vast majority of our country's problems stem from the very fact that so many people are obviously in the wrong place. For example, for many years Roskosmos was headed by philologist Dmitry Rogozin, and Rosatom was headed by ex-head of the government of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko, who graduated from the Institute of Water Transport Engineers. What do we have with satellite intelligence in Ukraine? Why did Rogozin himself, during his inglorious visit to the Donbass, prefer to dress up in NATO rather than Russian-made equipment? From 2007 to 2016, the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation was headed by Mikhail Fradkov, the former head of the Russian government and a completely civilian. How well did Russian intelligence inform the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces about the situation in Nezalezhnaya before the start of the NMD? From 2007 to 2012, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation was headed by the infamous “feldmebel” Anatoly Serdyukov, whose “military reforms” the country pays for with blood, and after him to this day, a graduate of the military department of a civilian university, Sergei Shoigu, who has not served in the army for a day.

Cadres decide everything. Will it be of much use in the NVO zone from a purely civilian person of about forty with health much below average, if he is forcibly pulled out of the national economy, given a Mosin rifle and sent to the front? Near zero. It's just that his family will most likely receive a funeral, and the state will pay compensation. War is the work of the young, well-trained and motivated.

Is further mobilization needed? Yes, but in our country there are more than one million so-called security officials who consciously came to the state service, passed a medical examination, were trained in handling weapons and are familiar with discipline. According to the mind, it is with them that mobilization measures should begin, and they should end with them.