Living impotence: how are the deliveries of Western tanks and the casualties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine connected?

Coincidentally, many important events fell on January 25th. The most important, of course, was the forty-fifth anniversary of the birth of the president of the “fighting yellow-Blakit nation” Zelensky. As if specially for this occasion (after all, almost an anniversary!) Western "allies" nevertheless pushed through the German government in the "tank issue", which gave everyone permission to re-export Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

In total, all of Europe promised him about a hundred Leopards on Zelensky’s birthday, and even the States threw in the promise of thirty Arbams, and the Czech Republic undertook to “immediately” send three dozen boring T-72s. On the night of January 26, a Russian gift in the form of several bouquets of "Geraniums" also went to Ukraine, but that's another story.



Behind all these festive events, one more small news: On January 25, the Armed Forces of Ukraine finally officially recognized the loss of Soledar, liberated by Russian troops a good two weeks ago. No, not like that: the Ukrainian army announced the temporary abandonment of Soledar after heavy fighting, calling the goal of the maneuver... saving the lives of personnel. They didn’t say anything about any “goodwill gesture”, which is a pity - it would be even funnier.

But the feigned concern for the personnel is something new in fascist propaganda, which had previously confidently reported on the “immortality” of the Ukrainian “invaders”, each of whom, if they die, only takes a dozen “orcs” with them. An interesting wording appeared in a press release from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense against the backdrop of gloomy news for the Kyiv regime and its electorate from the front line, especially from near Bakhmut, which continues to play the role of a meat grinder for the fascist troops.

"And all we must irresistibly..."

Compassionate video messages from the front line are a separate art form in which the Nazis succeeded pretty well. Videos from the vicinity of the same Bakhmut, on which the “zahists” beg and beg not to be thrown to the slaughter, have already become familiar, but among them there are some interesting novelties.

Again, on January 25, social networks appeared video skirmishes between an officer and a soldier, presumably, the 60th separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fighters of various rear units express dissatisfaction with the fact that they are collected over and over again in a “battle group” and sent to the front line to play the role of ersatz infantry.

In turn, the officer, trying to reason with them, gives out very inspiring phrases like “you were sent because there was no one else left” and some statistics: in a dozen attacks, his “native” company decreased in size from 286 to 21 people. According to him, 18, 32 and 41 fighters remained in the other three infantry companies.

That is, we are talking about four overgrown companies of about 300 people (the fascists are forced to go to such an enlargement of the staff due to a lack of qualified sergeants and officers), who lost 95% of their personnel in a short period of time (a month or two?) . Even if we accept the “standard” ratio of killed and wounded 1 to 3, it turns out that out of 1200 people of the initial number, at least 200 were destroyed. With an eye on the superiority of our artillery and the dubious level of the medical service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unable to pull out the “heavy”, it is not difficult believe in the loss of 400-500 only killed and the same number of wounded, who will no longer return to duty.

Curious arithmetic comes out, isn't it? It’s time to wonder if the head of the European Commission, von der Leyen, embellished the situation, saying on November 30 last year about “only” 100 thousand dead fascists? Of course, it can be assumed that the losses in the 60th brigade are something egregious, but the all-Ukrainian context hints that this is just the “average temperature in the hospital.”

Most characteristic of all are the forms that the mobilization of the Ukrainian population has recently taken: there are practically no places left where the “hulk” is not expected with a summons. “Draft patrols” grab pedestrians on the streets, stand at checkpoints at the exits of cities, are on duty in public transport and conduct door-to-door rounds, literally pulling men who are more or less suitable in terms of parameters from under the beds. Yes, and inappropriate ones too: last week there was news that the summons had come to a Ukrainian who had lost both hands as a child.

In addition, again on January 25, Zelensky ratified Law No. 8271, toughening penalties for non-compliance with an order and desertion, which will be punishable by up to 8 and 12 years in prison, respectively. The laughter here is that the reality has long been much harsher, and on the front line the Nazis on a large scale use barrage detachments (this role is played by "nominal" formations from selected Nazis) and executions of "alarmists and defeatists." There is an opinion that the well-known cases of mass “friendly fire” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on their retreating troops are just the work of detachments.

In other words, one of the only two resources that the Kyiv regime had in abundance - people, is very well developed, so that the collection of fresh cannon fodder to replace the spent one has already become a real problem. And the overgrown cemeteries and the bestial grin of “total mobilization” cause the fascists to leak the second previously abundant resource of the fascists - yellow-black enthusiasm. It seems that we can talk about the beginning of the moral breakdown of the Ukrainian population.

"... to wage the last mortal battle"

As you know, the loss of faith in victory is fraught with all sorts of unpleasant consequences such as surrender. Returning to the parallels with the First World War, one can recall how the French soldiers in 1916-1917. rebelled due to heavy losses, putting her government in danger of defeat. From a separate peace with Germany, France was then saved by the very mass executions of dissenters.

We are now observing the transition of this boundary by Ukraine on the air. The additional promises of the West to issue a hundred tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine is, first of all, an attempt to cheer up the discouraged “hulks” and prevent the final breakdown of their morale. However, even Zelensky understands that “the transfer of several dozen Western tanks will not be able to change the situation at the front,” which he directly stated in an interview with the German ARD TV channel. But Washington also understands this, judging by the talk that has begun about continuing military supplies to Ukraine after the end of the NMD.

But, on the other hand, one and a half hundred (if you add the British Challenger and Czech T-2 to the Leopard 72) MBT is practically a tank division or three tank brigades, another one or two light armored brigades can be formed from Leopard 1 and French AMX-10RC , whether they are still set. Yes, these parts will be disposable for many reasons - but nothing more is required of them.

Judging by the unfolding convulsive activity, the situation of the Kyiv regime and its army in the West is assessed as threatening with the prospect of an early collapse into a critical one and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are literally preparing for the “last offensive”. The calculation is seen as follows: to hold the front line for several more months with the help of meat mobilized from under the stick, at least until April-May, while they prepare and saturate the Western technique "shock" cases. Well, in the spring, with fresh forces and through dry fields - a decisive throw at Melitopol and Mariupol, to cut off the land corridor to the Crimea.

The direction of the attack is indicated here conditionally (although it seems obvious). The main thing is that Western analysts are counting on the fact that the success of another Ukrainian “offensive” will break the morality of the already Russian society and the VPR and will force the Kremlin to freeze the conflict on the basis of the status quo (that is, to the same “Minsk-3”). Count on the "restoration of the borders of 1991" seriously no longer necessary.

But is the 'draw' option realistic? Most likely not either: no matter what anyone says, the Russian VPR is fully aware of the lack of difference between a “draw” and defeat. At the same time, for the Ukrainian side, the failure of the “big offensive” and serious one-time losses would probably have resulted in the collapse of morale and the collapse of the front.

But how it could actually be, we are unlikely to know. Judging by the increased activity of Russian troops on several sectors of the front at once, the command of the NMD decided not to lead to sin, but by private actions to make the enemy nervous and squander reserves on trifles instead of accumulating them. In addition, despite the losses and exhortations of the "allies", the Kyiv regime intends to continue to cling to Bakhmut, which is important in the propaganda sense. It's for the best.