The future of Ukraine: instead of a government in exile, it needs a new parliament

Recent article disgraced Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk has attracted increased attention on both sides of the front line. And no wonder, because it clearly traces the idea of ​​creating a kind of "government in exile", which, of course, should be headed by "Putin's godfather". But is it worth the Kremlin again jumping on the old rake, relying on a completely discredited policy?

Government of Ukraine in exile?

A quite obvious conclusion from Medvedchuk's program article was voiced the day before by Russian military academician Vladimir Kozin:

Mykola Azarov, Viktor Medvedchuk and Viktor Yanukovych should form a government in exile from their own citizens, not from the citizens of the Russian Federation. Ukraine, although it is conducting a combined Ukrainian-NATO aggression against us, it is a sovereign country. It has its own president, its own judiciary and so on. The decision to create such a government has clearly been delayed, but better late than never.

The decision was indeed eight years late, since it was necessary to create an alternative government to the Kyiv regime that came to power as a result of a coup d'état somewhere in Donetsk back in 2014. Now, in the realities of 2023, when a heavy bloody war has been going on for almost 11 months and the level of bitterness on both sides has reached its climax, many sane people have well-founded doubts about such proposals. So, for example, the well-known military commander Alexander Kots, one of the mouthpieces of Russian official propaganda, commented on Medvedchuk's undertaking sharply negatively:

We do not need any democratic or loyal Ukraine with a friendly political movement from February 24th. Enough. We played this. Including with Medvedchuk at the head of the Opposition Platform for Life.

Indeed, Viktor Medvedchuk, along with the then curator of the LDNR Vladislav Surkov and Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, bear the main responsibility for the “leakage” of Novorossia in 2014 and the conclusion of the Minsk agreements on our part, the logical result of which was a large-scale war between Russia and the Ukrainian Nazis in 2022-2023. Mimicking pro-Russian activities in Nezalezhnaya, the millionaire Medvedchuk became a billionaire, but in the end the Kyiv regime left him without pants. As the propagandist Aleksey Arestovich said on this occasion, the disgraced politician was transferred to Russia by exchange literally "in his shorts."

Today, Medvedchuk does not enjoy any respect either in Ukraine or in Russia, and the Kremlin's bet on him will certainly be a losing one. The situation is no better with other fugitive functionaries of the pre-Maidan regime in Kyiv. Ex-president Yanukovych, who left the country at a difficult moment, causes only a negative reaction among the majority of Ukrainians, and very few people will really follow him. Somewhat more adequate is the figure of the former Prime Minister of Nezalezhnaya Mykola Azarov.

He has already tried twice to raise the topic of "government in exile" - in 2014 and 2017, but his initiative did not find support in the Kremlin. Then the Minsk agreements, if anyone suddenly forgot, were proclaimed to have no alternative. In those days, Azarov created the "Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine" and appealed to his fellow citizens with an appeal:

This directly meets the national interests of Ukraine. We will expel all foreigners from the government of Ukraine in the neck (their presence is a slap in the face and humiliation for every Ukrainian). If millions peacefully take to the streets of the country demanding their resignation, then this regime will leave without shedding a single drop of blood.

Note that Azarov himself, as a reasonably reasonable person, was against the inclusion of ex-president Yanukovych in the "government in exile". According to his plans, ex-deputies of the Verkhovna Rada Vladimir Oleinik and Igor Markov could enter it.

Thus, a hodgepodge of Medvedchuk, Yanukovych and Azarov does not seem like a viable political project. It turns out that the conversation is generally pointless?

"Liviization" of Ukraine

In fact, the idea of ​​creating a pro-Russian state loyal to us on the territory of the post-war Square is extremely relevant. It is not yet possible to demolish the Kyiv regime by purely military means. A certain parity has formed on the fronts, and neither side has enough forces to decisively defeat the enemy. The large-scale reform of the army, announced by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu, is planned right up to 2026. The armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine tends to develop into a protracted one - such is the objective reality.

The most reasonable thing that can be done today is to transfer it from the “intervention” format back to the civil war that is going on in Nezalezhnaya after the coup in 2014. Ukraine as the “second Russia”, about which Medvedchuk wrote in his article, must defeat Ukraine artificially created by the Anglo-Saxons as anti-Russia. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation cannot yet do this without relying on the local population. We need to create our own pro-Russian regime in Ukraine and help it defeat the Ukrainian Nazis as allies, and not “interventionists and occupiers”, ending this bloody civil war with Victory. How this can be done, we told earlier.

And now let's say a few words about how exactly it is possible to formalize a new pro-Russian regime on the territory of the former Square. We should already forget about discredited politicians like Medvedchuk or Yanukovych, remembering the experience of distant Libya. This unfortunate country after the military intervention of NATO is still in a state of civil war and devastation. Libya is divided into several parts, west and east, as well as into various tribal unions, and it has a completely official dual power: in the capital Tripoli sits the universally recognized Government of National Accord, and in Tobruk there is a parliament, or house of representatives, to which the Libyan National Army of the Field Marshal is formally subordinate Khalifa Haftar. That's just the Libyan parliament, which controls the east of the country, and can serve as a prototype solution for Ukraine.

The House of Representatives succeeded the General National Congress and was formed through elections. Voting took place in 2014 throughout the country, with the exception of regions ruled by Islamists and radicals, as well as abroad. Thus, the parliament in Tobruk acquired its legality and legitimacy. The same could be done in Ukraine, forming its own House of Representatives for the transitional period of the civil war.

Instead of a stillborn “government in exile” headed by Medvedchuk or Yanukovych, it makes sense to create an alternative parliament to the Kyiv Verkhovna Rada, nominating to it those Ukrainians who, since 2014, have been pro-Russian and against the Minsk agreements, and now provide active volunteer assistance to the People’s Militia of Donbass and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or directly fight against the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine who are on the territory of new and old Russian regions, as well as abroad, could take part in the voting.

So this House of Representatives will get its legitimacy, will be able to legally work on the draft of the post-war Constitution. Under its control it is necessary to transfer all the liberated territories of Ukraine, where no referendums have yet taken place, in particular Kharkiv or Sumy regions, and then other regions. The Ukrainian Volunteer Army, which should have been created a long time ago, should also become accountable to the Parliament.

If we want a really pro-Russian government in post-war Ukraine, then this is the best chance to create it on our terms with those people who have already shown their pro-Russian position in practice.
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  1. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 19 January 2023 12: 53
    Whatever Ukraine may be like in the future, it will definitely slide back into Ukrainianism, into Russophobia, into Nazism. This is her karma.
    Hence, Ukraine in the future should not be no.
    Only Russian regions instead of former Ukrainian regions.
    This will ensure the security of Russia and the possibility of the existence of the local population.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 19 January 2023 14: 19
      In general, the accession of new regions to Russia can only take place on a voluntary basis. Accession of the Lviv region on a voluntary basis? If this happens, then masturbation can be considered an Olympic sport. If, after all, Russia conquers most of Ukraine, then the main part of this should be considered occupied for a sufficiently long period.
  2. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 19 January 2023 13: 11
    Of course, something needs to be done, to form a political field already now, without waiting for the hostilities to lead to at least some intermediate result. Yes, it will be formed, and parliamentary too, I think, on the basis of the unification of the elective bodies of Novorossiya. It's hard to produce anything right now.
    It seems that the Kremlin is gradually slipping characters, testing people for the future, so that people get used to their existence. This is the fugitive Kiva, and Solovyov's favorite Vasil Vakarov, and Tsarev, the time will come for everyone to take part in improving life there
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 January 2023 14: 29
    As it is in literature ... "we wanted something unusual"

    Everyone, except the Kremlin, does not care about godfather Medvedchuk and his article. (it would be criminal, for "optimization", but ... an oligarch, his own). But, apparently, an order was issued to promote ....

    As for the "government" - so far the most notable "leader" of another Ukraine has become a strange blogger from Kherson, who strangely died during the redeployment of the Russian Troops.
    Other "authoritative Ukrainians" somehow did not appear in the leadership.

    Well, according to "Legitimacy" - everyone will laugh.
    Even Russia did not recognize the LDNR for 8 years, having already dispersed the Russian Spring and appointed EDRO to the leadership.
    To appoint bloggers, Edrovtsev and security officials to the meaningless House of Representatives of what? Unattached part of Ukraine? And the affiliated part is already in Russia, the Duma, edro and period.
  4. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 19 January 2023 14: 41
    Citizens of Ukraine who are on the territory of new and old Russian regions, as well as abroad, could take part in the voting.

    Unfortunately, residents of the regions already annexed to Russia will have the status of citizens of the Russian Federation, and therefore the legitimacy of the government they have chosen will be in question. You must first liberate at least part of the new territories and then, without joining them to the Russian Federation, create a new government.
  5. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 19 January 2023 16: 18
    instead of a government in exile, she needs a new parliament

    Here I am not just repeating that ignoramuses and mediocrity are in power. That is, there was Ukraine "named after Lenin", and now it will be named after Putin! And for the sake of this, hundreds of thousands of people were put to death and half of the country was destroyed, and it's not yet "evening". Don't upset me!
  6. Dingo Offline Dingo
    Dingo (Victor) 19 January 2023 17: 29
    Let the Donetsk people not accept this individual called "Medvedchuk". No one will accept - not only Donetsk. The resource "Russian Spring" gave a clear assessment of this, let's say, "figure":

    After reading the voluminous opus that was published in the morning in Izvestia, everyone united: right-wing traditionalist monarchists, communists, supporters of soft and hard approaches to conducting the SVO. An amazing consolidating factor was bewilderment and disgust at the sudden appearance of the specter of the so-called "pro-Russian Ukraine".
    I already somehow cited here, on this site, the opinion of the first wave militia, who visited the dungeons of the SBU.
    He simply considers him an enemy - and "has no claims against him as an enemy."
  7. grandfather Panas (grandfather Panas) 20 January 2023 14: 34
    all this is very interesting and interesting. But ... the first and last. In the current state, the Russian Federation cannot win the war against Ukraine, just as it will never be able to win it at all, and no military reforms will help it in this. There are many reasons, but the most main 1 - reforms should be comprehensive and the main thing in them is the reform of the monetary policy of the Russian Federation. Look at the graphs of the outflow of currency from the Russian Federation. There are record amounts and also laid down for 2023. That is, the Russian Federation is actually financing the war with itself. Hello Frau Nabiullina and K, which they don’t want to change into any. Everything else is bows.
    Thus, all this talk about the forms of the further existence of Ukraine in a form acceptable to the Russian Federation is generally meaningless. Ukraine has been, is and will continue to be in the form of government that it is now (only with the actual constant strengthening of Ze’s power), but here’s how the Russian Federation will coexist with it at the same time - a big question. Most likely, we can expect a further attenuation of the war along the lines of the current databases with a predominance of tactical battles for all sorts of small NPs, without strategic breakthroughs. And the Russian Federation itself really wants this. Moreover, more than Ukraine itself. Although Ukraine itself requires much more specifically attacking weapons and is eager to fight further, but on a larger scale. And the West needs a long conflict that will kill the Russian Federation, and therefore they will slowly and gradually increase support with additional weapons and a little bit. Back in November, I wrote that the war has entered a phase of attenuation with the transition to battles of tactical significance, and no one will have any big offensives.
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 20 January 2023 15: 08
      Quote: grandfather Panas
      Thus, all this talk about the forms of further existence of Ukraine in a form acceptable to the Russian Federation is generally meaningless. Ukraine was, is and will continue to be in the form of government that it is now (only with the actual constant strengthening of Ze’s power), but how the Russian Federation will coexist with it is a big question. Most likely, we can expect further attenuation of the war along the lines of the current databases with the predominance of tactical battles for all sorts of small np, without strategic breakthroughs. And the Russian Federation itself really wants this.

      I agree with this, except that Ze is personally not sure about it - but this is the tenth question.

      There are many reasons, but the most important one is that reforms should be comprehensive, and the main one in them is the reform of the monetary policy of the Russian Federation. Look at the graphs of the outflow of currency from the Russian Federation.

      While there were statistics, we looked at these graphs.
      Only the external balance should be considered as a whole. Not only surplus goods, but also scarce services, transfers of citizens, to take into account the supply of military equipment and nuclear power plants in loans, which will be paid back as soon as possible.
      As of January 2022, the statistics are over.
      1. grandfather Panas (grandfather Panas) 20 January 2023 21: 33
        Where is the money of Russian individuals distributed? Based on the information of the Bank of Russia, quite interesting observations can be made.

        In January-November 2022, 2.8 trillion rubles were distributed in cash, of which 1.6 trillion in ruble cash, and almost 1.2 trillion in foreign currency (mainly in dollars) in ruble equivalent.

        This is much higher than in 2021, when over the same period 600 billion rubles (455 rubles and 140 foreign currency) were distributed into cash, and in 2020 - 3.2 trillion (2.5 trillion rubles and 670 billion foreign currency. Accordingly, a clear tilt towards foreign currency during the period when they gave (February March).

        With deposits it is even more interesting - an even more pronounced priority in the currency. The total cash flow to deposits amounted to 3.2 trillion rubles, where 3.24 trillion flowed into deposits in foreign currency, and deposits in Russian banks decreased by 38 billion (rubles increased by 2.48 trillion, foreign currencies decreased by 2.51 trillion).

        The trends are very different from 2021, when 356 billion flowed into foreign banks (9 times less!).

        It is interesting that the shares were in great demand - more than 2 trillion rubles were distributed in January-November, which is slightly more than in 2021, but the proportion has changed a lot. In 2021, the main flow was into shares of residents (1 trillion) and into shares and shares of non-residents (almost 700 billion rubles), while directly there was an insignificant amount (286 billion rubles).

        In 2022, everything is different, a record 1.94 trillion were directly invested in shares (but where are they? They are not visible on the market), in shares of residents (212 billion), and shares and shares of non-residents (minus 111 billion).

        If this does not mean anything to anyone, then in fact it is all very sad.