Poland celebrates victory over Russia. Is it too early?
Poland is trying hard to find an alternative to "undemocratic" Russian gas. Washington offered such an alternative in the form of a 20-year contract for the supply of American liquefied natural gas. In Warsaw, happy: blue fuel will cost 30% cheaper. Victory relations sound: they say, this is a liberation from "Russian gas slavery." And if other European states follow the same path, there will be a complete victory over Russia. However, in practice it is too early to talk about “victory”.
So, the contract signed between Poland and the United States will begin to operate only in 2022. Just when the contract with Gazprom ends. At the same time, Russia covers two-thirds of Poland's fuel needs. Until now, all Warsaw’s attempts to switch to liquefied natural gas from the United States have been unsuccessful: the American was more expensive. Now in Poland they hope that it will be cheaper by a third.
However, it is impossible to predict how much gas will cost, whether Russian or American, four years later. Its price is tied to the cost of oil. It is a matter of simply comparing the current price of Russian gas with what Washington is offering.
Even if gas from the United States is cheaper, there is another caveat - delivery problems. Under the terms of the contract, all costs from the time of shipment to the American port are borne by the buyer.
In addition, so far there is no enterprise from which it is planned to ship — there is only an intention to build it.
And the contract with the USA will not cover all the needs of Poland in gas. So, only 2,7 billion cubic meters a year will arrive from Poland overseas, while Russia supplies 10 billion cubic meters.
However, it is possible that Poland will buy American gas not for itself, but for resale to third countries. For example, to South America, Asia, or - at exorbitant prices - to Ukraine, when that country has no alternatives left.
So, the contract signed between Poland and the United States will begin to operate only in 2022. Just when the contract with Gazprom ends. At the same time, Russia covers two-thirds of Poland's fuel needs. Until now, all Warsaw’s attempts to switch to liquefied natural gas from the United States have been unsuccessful: the American was more expensive. Now in Poland they hope that it will be cheaper by a third.
However, it is impossible to predict how much gas will cost, whether Russian or American, four years later. Its price is tied to the cost of oil. It is a matter of simply comparing the current price of Russian gas with what Washington is offering.
Even if gas from the United States is cheaper, there is another caveat - delivery problems. Under the terms of the contract, all costs from the time of shipment to the American port are borne by the buyer.
In addition, so far there is no enterprise from which it is planned to ship — there is only an intention to build it.
And the contract with the USA will not cover all the needs of Poland in gas. So, only 2,7 billion cubic meters a year will arrive from Poland overseas, while Russia supplies 10 billion cubic meters.
However, it is possible that Poland will buy American gas not for itself, but for resale to third countries. For example, to South America, Asia, or - at exorbitant prices - to Ukraine, when that country has no alternatives left.
Information