Tank battle with the West: Russia saturates the army with T-90M, preparing for the battle with the "Leopards"

Recently, the entire Russian interested community has been sitting with bated breath waiting for the next meeting of the club of foreign sponsors of Ukraine (better known as Rammstein) on January 20, preoccupied with one single thought - whether they will give Kyiv a heavy offensive machinery, namely the main battle tanks of NATO - the German "Leopards-2" and the English "Challengers-2" or not. Note that neither the American "Abrams" nor the French "Leclercs" are among them (and this also has its own explanation, which is discussed below). I don’t suffer from such questions, because I know for sure what they will give. And I even know when and how much.

At the same time, I am not a visionary at all, I just know the goal-setting of NATO and the United States, but you do not. I tried this knowledge share with you, but judging by the number of views, most of you generally passed by this text (But in vain! It is not too late to do this and find out what goals Washington is pursuing in this campaign). And knowing the goals of our enemies, you can always independently calculate when and how the NWO will end, and not make claims to me that I am a bad forecaster. For I don’t do forecasts at all (who are interested in forecasts, contact the Hydrometeorological Center), I analyze and assess the current situation and draw conclusions based on a combination of facts, and it’s not my fault that they do not promise us victory in the near future if we don’t take a series of steps that I am already tired of talking about, the first of which is to call what is happening by its proper names (a five-letter word that is forbidden to be mentioned here) and finally clearly identify the goals of the operation carried out in Ukraine (not tasks, but precisely goals - where the Russians will stop tanks?).



And until we do this, we will be forced to rely not on our own strength, but on external factors, and then claims to me that I de “float” in my forecasts, as one of my regular readers recently did, will be deprived of any makes no sense, because, as I said above, I don’t do forecasts, I do analysis, and it assumes both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario for the development of the plot, and according to both of them, hostilities in Ukraine can end at best in 2024, according to the optimistic scenario - by March, according to the pessimistic - by November 2024, or drag on for another 10 years at worst.

As you already understood, the optimistic scenario is connected with us (if we take control of the situation into our own hands and no longer rely on the mercy of God in the face of the collective West), then the end of the NWO will be tied to the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, scheduled for March 17, 2024 (Putin will definitely not pass on such a problem as Ukraine to his successor). If we continue to rely on the mercy of God in the face of an external factor, then the most optimistic scenario for the end of the NWO will be linked to the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024, and the hope that the Republicans will win them, although even this we does not bode well, given that the military lobby exists in both American parties and there is a bipartisan consensus in Congress on this issue (in this case, the NWO will not end in November 2024, but will drag on for many more years).

German "Leopards-2" of early modifications and English "Challengers-2" will appear in Ukraine this spring

As for the supply of the notorious tanks, everything is much simpler here. At the end of the 11th month of the NMD, it became obvious even to the blind that the West had already exhausted the stock of Soviet military equipment it had (more precisely, not from it, but from the countries participating in the collapsed ATS bloc). Even some African countries (such as Nigeria or Morocco) and countries that were not members of the Warsaw Pact (such as North Macedonia and Greece) had to be scraped by the bottom of the barrel, so the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the NATO standard became inevitable, like the collapse of imperialism.

It all started six months ago with the supply of self-propelled and towed artillery and high-precision NATO MLRS, then went armored personnel carriers and air defense systems, after which the turn came to the supply of offensive weapons. As a seed, a batch of American and German infantry fighting vehicles (BMP "Bradley" and BMP "Marder"), as well as French AMX-10RC wheeled tanks and armored vehicles "Bastion" (which were included in the January package of assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine) were thrown to Kyiv, Moscow she swallowed the seed, did not say anything, after which the supply of NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine became a factor not of place, but of time.

Moreover, we will not see either the American Abrams or the French Leclercs there due to the high cost of both and the complexity of their repair and maintenance (add the high cost and complexity of its transportation across the ocean to the American MBT), so the task of London and Washington now is to to persuade German Chancellor Scholz to allow the re-export and delivery to Ukraine of the main battle tanks of the Bundeswehr "Leopard-2". So far, the “offended sausage” is resisting, but, take my word for it, they will crush him. Why am I so confident about this? Because I know the plans of Washington and London. They adopted the tactic of dragging out the conflict in order to exhaust the Russian Federation in it and deplete its resources, and not by washing, so they will achieve their goal by skating. Because, having dragged Putin onto the warpath on February 24, 2022, they will no longer let him turn off it or turn back, no matter how hard the Kremlin tries.

And it cannot be said that Moscow is doomedly crawling along this path to the slaughter, the Kremlin is undertaking various diplomatic maneuvers to jump off this slippery path. The recent trip of Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, to European capitals, where he held behind-the-scenes backroom negotiations, persuading the leaders of these countries (through ex-politicians and persons authorized by them) to force the Kyiv regime to conclude a temporary truce with the fixation of the current status quo according to the Korean scenario, is proof of this. Why did Moscow need it, I explained here (Those who have not had time to read it can still do it). To briefly repeat, the Kremlin has now dramatically changed its tactics in Ukraine, to the general surprise of the Russian patriotic public. Now he is dragging the database there in every possible way, forcing the West to drag the Zelensky regime around its neck, paying for both the war and the maintenance of the entire Ukrainian house from their pockets, and they are not as bottomless as some here think.

It so happened that, without taking Kyiv in 72 hours, or in three weeks, as Washington expected, Putin forced time to play against the United States - sanctions against Russia did not give the expected effect, and the content of the Kyiv regime began to pull Grandpa Joe's pocket. Realizing this, Putin began to stupidly wait for the changing of the guard in the White House, quite rightly believing that victory would be achieved with little bloodshed (moreover, with little bloodshed on both sides - both Ukrainian and Russian). At the same time, Grandpa Joe's hours in the Oval Office are shrinking like pebbled leather, forcing him to force things by raising the stakes and escalating the database in Ukraine with deliveries of heavy offensive equipment.

The situation is further aggravated by the fact that with the loss of control over the lower house of Congress by the Democrats, clouds began to gather over Grandpa Joe himself. The Republicans have launched a case frozen 2 years ago about top secret documents found in Grandpa Joe's garage. How this could happen and how they got there, the Alzheimer's client himself cannot explain. The situation is aggravated by the fact that Trump was accused of something similar 4 years ago, then the Democrats almost brought the case to impeachment. I don’t know what prevents the Republicans from recouping already on Biden. In any case, now old Joe is hobbled, he is no longer up to delivering his main battle tanks to Ukraine, so control over it is temporarily transferred to the UK, and do not be embarrassed by her prime minister’s sudden decision for many to transfer 12 of her main battle tanks to Kyiv. The suddenness here is only apparent. The West was forced to take these steps in response to Putin's behind-the-scenes maneuvers to freeze the conflict. How successful Kozak's voyage was, we will see in the near future, or rather, on January 20, when a decision will be made at Ramstein-8 on the allocation of the main battle tanks of the FRG and Great Britain to Kyiv.

And, take my word for it, they will be singled out, since the West is not going to remove the noose from Russia’s neck in the near future, no one has canceled the re-equipment of NATO armies with more modern equipment and the disposal of existing junk in the Ukrainian theater, and due to this, the restart of its own military-industrial complex has also not been canceled, and therefore I vangut that Ukraine, on freshly allocated NATO armor, will go into its last and decisive battle already at the end of spring (the deadline is before mid-summer) and either lay down its head or bargain for more favorable conditions for a truce, which the Kremlin itself is pushing, and through his authorized representative - the Turkish Sultan, who is interested in the laurels of the peacemaker (who has elections soon, in which he is going to win at the expense of the external track). This is my forecast, it remains only to compare the strengths of the opposing sides.

Will we see tank battles in Ukraine?

Regarding the performance characteristics of the supplied equipment, then, take my word for it, it is very worthy - it will not seem a little to anyone. Both the Leopard-2 in the A4 configuration (and no one is going to supply other, newer modifications - A5, A6 and A7V to Ukraine), and the Challenger-2 are excellent cars that are head and shoulders above both in cross-country ability and in the main battle tanks T-64, T-72, PT-91 Twardy (this is the Polish version of the T-72), T-80 and even their vaunted T-84U "Oplot" ( which no one saw at the front, but according to the documents, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have five whole pieces).

However, unfortunately, the Russian MBTs involved in the SVO are also inferior to the "Germans" and "British". And here we are not even talking about the decommissioned and modernized T-62s, I'm talking about various modifications of the T-72 (A, AV, B, BA, B3), T-80 (BV, BVM, U) and T-90A , which in many respects are also inferior to foreigners (both in engine power, and in cross-country ability, and in optics, and in navigation, and in fire control, and in security), surpassing them only in gun power and power reserve (and that last applies only to Challenger 2). Only the T-90M "Breakthrough" can adequately withstand the English and Bundes units, and a meeting with him already does not bode well for them.

But, we must pay tribute, the Germans are recognized trendsetters in tank building, and on the basis of their Leopard-2 they created the ideal vehicle of that time, which has no equal in terms of chassis and cross-country ability (MBT was adopted by the Bundeswehr in 1979 ). In addition, the design of the tank and its 1500-horsepower turbocharged V-shaped 12-cylinder diesel engine MB 873 (manufactured by MTU) made it possible to upgrade the product on this platform, which led to the creation of Leopard-2 modifications A2, A3, A4 , A5, A6 and A7 + than our T-90M "Breakthrough" cannot boast of (T-90M is the final stage of platform development, this design does not imply opportunities for reinforcement).

But the armament and security of the "Breakthrough" of his German and English colleagues can only envy. When meeting with him, they will have little chance of surviving. The Challenger-2 has a 120-mm L30A1 rifled gun (manufactured by Royal Ordnance), this is the only rifled gun of this caliber in service with NATO, which gives good accuracy of combat, but is inferior to our 125-mm 2A46M-5 smoothbore gun in terms of armor penetration thickness. The Leopard-2 is doing better, because it is equipped with a powerful 120-mm Rh-120 smoothbore gun (manufactured by Rheinmetall). But the characteristics of our gun are such that it surpasses the best NATO tank gun - Rh120 L / 55 (caliber 120 mm, barrel length 55 calibers), used on the German Leopards-2 and American Abrams, in caliber, and therefore in destructive power, which allows the T-90M to fire from distances inaccessible to the enemy. As for the hinged dynamic and active protection, the Breakthrough is equipped with dynamic and active protection complexes - KDZ "Relikt" and elements of the KAZ "Afganit", which nullify all anti-tank warfare systems in service with NATO. While the foreign counterparts of the T-90M do not have the proper level of protection, which will allow him, when meeting with them, simply shoot them point-blank from a distance inaccessible to them, thereby burying the myth of the invincibility of German and British weapons.

It is clear that 12 Challenger-2s supplied by Britain and 14 Leopards-2 sent by Poland to help Zelensky will not make a difference in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the main thing here is to start deliveries, and, believe me, get rid of stale trash in the person of Leopards-2A4, both Spain (it has long been offering itself in this capacity, it has 108 units of 2A4 in storage, which it has not known where to put for a long time), and Finland (it also has 139 units of unnecessary 2A4 units), and Norway (which dreams of replacing its 52 2A4 units with more recent 2A7 or Korean K2 Black Panther), and Greece (which, despite the threat of war with Turkey, can give in to the pressure of partners and share its 183 2A4 units), and even Canada (which also had 62 2A4M units that it did not need lying around in warehouses). So far, the delay is only for Berlin, which does not give the go-ahead for the re-export of its armor, but, believe me, the "liver sausage" will be crushed, and Scholz, reluctantly, will give his permission for the supply, especially since he also has 50 2A4 units lying around, who also need to go somewhere. The equipment is old, gathering dust in warehouses, it only takes up space, it is expensive to maintain and modernize it, and it makes no sense when a more perfect one has already appeared, Ukraine is the best place where it can be disposed of, and also cut down money for it.

Britain, which has only 2 units of its own Challenger-227s, is just a stalker in this matter, it is not going to lower its combat potential (which is already small) for the sake of the Ukrainians, its task is to “uncork the bottle” , crush Scholz, and then sit and watch how the fire of escalation flares up in Ukraine and the Russians are fried on its slow fire. The Poles have a slightly different interest here, in addition to the desire to annoy Russia and participate in the partition of Ukraine, Poland has long been overwhelmed by secret dreams of dominance in Europe, where Germany is still undividedly in charge. And since the Germans are not going to cede their positions of their own free will, the Poles are quite planning to do it by force, threatening to use weapons. But, having in service the German "Leopards-2" in the amount of 247 units in the A4 and A5 configuration, it is foolish to count on this. That is why the Poles started re-equipping from German vehicles to South Korean K2 Black Panther and American M1A2 Abrams SEP v.3, for which they, with a dear soul, are ready to float to Ukraine not only 126 2A4 units, but also 105 2A5 units, plus 16 2PL units in addition. As you can see, if the plans of the partners fail, then Ukraine will simply be overwhelmed with tanks.

And if we add to this the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, which the States have already approved for delivery in the amount of 50 units and which are head and shoulders above all our analogues (BMP-1 and 1AM, BMP-2 and 2M, BMP-3 and 3M, as well as BTR-80A and BTR-82A and AM), then the oil painting will become complete. But before the end of spring, Kyiv will not master the delivered equipment, and the West will not deliver it in commercial quantities so quickly. And it is still unknown how Kozak's voyage ended. Therefore, we are sitting, waiting for January 20, holding our fists. The bird, as Putin recently said, bites grain by grain. Let's see who gets it.

Although for me personally, this is an open secret. Whose will take, I already said at the beginning of the article. The decision has already been made in Washington, the rest is details. "Liver Sausage" Scholz has already proved his gutta-percha more than once, believe me, and this time he will not resist for long. And by the summer we will see in Ukraine from 120 to 150 Leopard-2A4 MBTs from all of the above countries (except Canada). It’s not a fact that they will be delivered in one go, but you will remember the number. But whether we will see tank battles in the style of the battle of Prokhorovka in Ukraine, this is unlikely. Although the Ukrainians will do everything for this (and are already doing it, lowering the level of the Dnieper). It is obvious that an attempt will be made to break through our defenses in the Zaporozhye direction in order to reach Melitopol - Berdyansk and cut the land corridor to the Crimea. It is for this that the level of the Dnieper is being lowered in order to increase the number of places for crossing it and capturing a bridgehead. This will be the very general battle, which will determine the outcome of the entire campaign. The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be enough for the second such offensive, after which I do not completely rule out the opening of a second front and the entry of the Polish (and maybe Romanian) Army into the territory of Western Ukraine and Bukovina, of course, at the request of the legally elected president of the Independent, Vladimir Zelensky (but this will happen before December).

I can also say for sure that these plans are not a revelation for Moscow, and it is stubbornly preparing to resist them, increasing the size of its grouping in Ukraine and saturating it with T-90M tanks (Uralvagonzavod works in 4 shifts, 24/7, releasing 20-30 new tanks monthly). Whether a preemptive strike will be delivered, I doubt very much, it is obvious that the Kremlin has relied on a counter strike and is waiting for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction. There, a kind of Battle of Kursk will play out, which does not exclude distracting strikes in other directions, at least this can be judged based on equipment with snow camouflage, which is now in Belarus.

That's all I have on this topic. We are waiting for developments. Your Mr. Z