Why Putin is delaying the winter offensive

I have bad news for all jingoistic patriots (just don't rush to throw stones at me, I'm not happy with them myself). We are all waiting for our winter-spring offensive in the next month or two, and our enemies are also waiting with horror, not knowing which flank to block first. Their curators are also afraid of him, threatening us with deliveries of heavy armor to their wards (including the main battle tanks "Abrams", "Leopard-2" and "Challenger-2").

I understand the fears of our enemies - if we break through the front and achieve even minor successes in the Ukrainian theater of operations, it will become very difficult for them to convince their plebs, languishing from the exorbitant expenses that have fallen on them this winter, of the need to further support the Kyiv regime, which has stood between Russia and all the rest of the still free world. Putin does not know when he will come (and whether he will come at all), and their residents have to pay prohibitive prices for gas and electricity already now, so the European unfortunate leaders need a victory (even a small one) of the Kyiv regime now, otherwise they will have this winter without mass strikes and protests are unbearable.

The calm before the storm. What do we observe on the fields of diplomatic battles - stalemate or zugzwang?

Explain the incomprehensible and unintelligible actions of the Kremlin, which sent Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, on a trip to Europe, where he conducts behind-the-scenes behind-the-scenes negotiations, persuading the leaders of these countries (through ex-politicians and persons authorized by them) to force the Kyiv regime to conclude a temporary truce with fixing the current status quo (using an analogue of the Korean scenario of peace between North and South Korea along the 38th parallel), a very ungrateful thing, because I myself am an opponent of such truce. The participation of the Turkish sultan in this process, who is pushing through this idea on his part, once again convinces me that all this is not without reason, there are clearly some reasons for Moscow. Let's think about what. After all, you have to be a complete idiot not to understand that Kyiv and its curators use this respite only to accumulate strength, after which it will be much more difficult to overcome this fascist regime. Does Moscow really not understand this, or do we ourselves not understand something? Most likely the second.

Let's try to understand what makes Moscow go all out? The simplest and most banal explanation (and it is always the most correct) is that Moscow does not have enough time to prepare forces for a decisive offensive. I'm in previous The text has already described the difficulties we faced when we launched a military-police operation on February 24 last year, which resulted in full-scale military operations (which in military science are described by a five-letter word that cannot be mentioned here). And now, in order to bring these databases to a victorious end, we need to mobilize, put on shoes, train the personnel reserve that fell under partial mobilization, launch the military-industrial complex to its fullest, and this is even more difficult, although it already works in three shifts 6 times a week (and you need four shifts and 24/7), and all this takes time, because we have everything else (including money). As always, we don’t have enough time (Russians, as you know, are slow to harness, but they drive fast, however, another saying is also known - “as the poor get married, the night is small!”).

In addition, the same time is also playing against our enemies, because they must keep this mediocre regime on their necks (and only last year it turned out to be $32 billion just to support Zelensky’s pants, and this is not counting the $97 billion spent on the Armed Forces of Ukraine - all figures are official, the last one was given by Shoigu at the extended collegium of the RF Ministry of Defense held on December 21), now every day of the existence of this regime plays against them, placing an unbearable burden on their treasury.

Now it becomes clear to you why Moscow recently came out with the announcement of a unilateral 36-hour Christmas truce, and Erdogan's press secretary Ibrahim Kalyn proposed to make it indefinite. Putin is playing for time. The more he wins it, the less time Grandpa Joe will have to implement his plans, because the time of his stay in the White House is finite - it expires on November 5, 2024 (and on January 25, 2025 at exactly 12 noon EST at the moment the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States, the carriage of the 46th President will turn into a pumpkin in front of everyone). Therefore, Grandpa Joe is forcing, through former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and ex-Pentagon chief Robert Gates, the idea of ​​​​providing main battle tanks by his European satellites to the Zelensky regime for the last and decisive throw to the east (this idea was voiced by the former head of the State Department and the Pentagon in a joint article published in the electronic version of The Washington Post on January 8). Putin has a different task, since the victory will still be ours, the Kremlin’s task is to minimize possible losses on both sides (Zelensky doesn’t care to die, and we still have to restore the destroyed territory of the former Ukrainian SSR).

Now it becomes clear why Surovikin has been digging the "Wagner lines" for several months in a row, burying "dragon teeth" and building other fortifications along the entire line of contact tens of kilometers deep into Russian territory. Moscow unambiguously makes it clear to Kyiv that it is ready to switch to strategic defense, which, however, does not prevent Surovikin from preparing for an offensive (based on the principle - if you want peace, prepare for war).

Here is such a cunning plan of Putin (in my conspiracy development). Now, if you see American or German tanks in Ukraine, then the plan has failed and we are waiting for a frontal development of events with a head-on collision of opposing forces. So, Grandpa Joe won and pushed his European sixes to further escalate the conflict in Ukraine. If you don’t see deliveries of heavy armor, then Kozak’s mission was a success and his trip around Europe was successful. But how to explain such a development of the plot to the patriotic Russian population, which will immediately see in this another deflection of the GDP and a gesture of "good will", I do not know. The minions of Grandpa Joe in Russia will immediately begin to rock the boat, accusing the Kremlin of weakness and yet another evil. That is, if desired, Grandpa Joe can also benefit from this if he achieves internal destabilization in the Russian Federation. But in any case, Putin will cope with it, and in any case, it is not worth the lives lost in Ukraine. If it is possible to end the conflict there with little bloodshed and the two-year special operation is crowned with the fall of the criminal regime of Zelensky with the subsequent reformatting of Ukraine, then everything will not be in vain.

Ukraine has become an ideal testing ground for testing new weapons and disposing of old ones

I understand that the previous part of the text was a big disappointment for all those who had already eaten all the popcorn in anticipation of our general offensive, in anticipation of the Battle of Kursk, which, in their opinion, was supposed to break the back of the fascist Ukrainian reptile, after which the fate of the Zelensky regime would have been decided. It is clear that the weather factor could not have done here - the winter is too warm, the tanks are bogged down in the swamp on both sides of the conflict. And the patriots were ready to wait for frosts - frosts, and not for the cancellation of the offensive (and this applies to patriots on both sides of the LBS).

But everything that is done is for the best. Therefore, I propose to look at the current situation from a different perspective. Here, just now, our Ukrainian non-brothers, from the height of their position as overseas vassals, fighting with us with advanced enemy weapons on enemy maps drawn on the target designations of again enemy satellites, arrogantly declared that they were waging a war of the 6th generation with us, when we we still fight with them with bow and arrows, waging a 4th generation war, an analogue of the Second World War. And I would not be in a hurry to accuse them of excessive arrogance. As a result of this war, no matter how it ends, more than one generation of military personnel will still be studying, starting with future lieutenants and ending with acting colonels and generals. And for some reason, for 10 months of the NMD, I did not hear anything about the successes of our illustrious Taman division (I don’t even know if it was involved in the conflict). And I heard about the "successes" of the famous Kantemirovskaya division, but I don’t want to talk about them (because they don’t exist).

Yes, our landing force (including the 45th special forces brigade), the MTR troops, the GRU special forces, as well as the marines (Pacific and Black Sea) showed miracles of heroism, but they were all leveled by the "brilliant" leadership (only the unparalleled Gostomel helicopter landing operation What it cost! The operation, of course, is wonderful, but what is its result?!). In general, I get the impression that all our successes at the front are associated either with the Wagner PMC, or with the corps of the People's Militia of the LDNR, hardened in the crucible of battles in 2014-2022, or with the volunteer mobiles of individual BARS (BARS-16 "Kuban", BARS-15 "Ermak", later reduced to the brigade "Don", BARS-20 "Thunder", formed by the Union of Volunteers of Donbass), heroically, to the last, holding Krasny Lyman, the Kherson direction and other sectors of the front, but did not with a cadre army (correct me if I'm wrong).

But the non-brothers really have something to be proud of. I won’t say anything about our sunken Black Sea flagship and their successes in the Kherson and Kharkov directions, you yourself know about them. But about attacks on our airfields of long-range strategic aviation and on the base of the Black Sea Fleet, I'm sure you don't know enough. That is, of course, you heard about the attacks, but you don’t know the details. For example, have you heard anything about the fact that in the attack on the Black Sea Fleet base they used two types of UAVs at once - sea and air? Moreover, the air drone led the sea, checking navigation in space. This is a new word in military affairs, this has not yet been used anywhere. This is, of course, the 6th level of network-centric warfare, we can only strive for this so far. True, there are few merits of non-brothers here, their curators check the novelties of their military industry at the Ukrainian theater of operations, at the same time opening our air defense, missile defense, electronic warfare systems and other defense-in-depth systems.

By the way, both near Saratov (military airfield of the Russian Aerospace Forces Engels-2) and near Ryazan (military airfield of the Russian Aerospace Forces Dyagilevo), our air defense system failed to cope with the task assigned to it. Three echelons of air defense missed a jet trough with a length of 15 meters and a wingspan of 4 meters (stupidly they didn’t notice!). The non-brothers used the Tu-141 Swift to attack our airfields for long-range strategists - drones still of Soviet production, which they inherited after the collapse of the Union (in the amount of 152 units). I remember when the first such miracle Yudo fell in the spring of 2022 somewhere near Yasinovataya, then everyone looked at it - what had it flown to them? And they laughed at the non-brothers - what they are fighting with, they will soon switch to bows and arrows. Have passed! While you were laughing, their curators “shamanized” this product, they threw it away, they screwed it on, and now you are already catching it at your airfields of long-range strategic aviation 600-800 km from the border of the former Ukrainian SSR. Cheap and cheerful! By the way, they still have 140 Swifts. So get ready! When the Swifts run out, they will switch to the Tu-143, this is the reconnaissance analogue of the Tu-141 called "Flight" (slightly smaller, but also turbojet).

A similar story was with maritime drones. In the summer, two of them were caught in the Sevastopol region (more precisely, one was caught, the second was destroyed). They also looked at it, wondered what it had sailed to them? We agreed on the version that the non-brothers are testing the defense system of the Black Sea Fleet base using such outlandish devices. They tested it, the system works (some vigilant sailor was even awarded), but the non-brothers have gone further - now they are testing a bunch of attack air drone, attack sea and UAV-gunner on the target, leading both through the NATO satellite navigation system GPS.

While we are at war with non-brothers, reducing their load on the soil, their curators at the Ukrainian theater of operations are disposing of their junk, giving work to their military-industrial complex, loading it with orders for the future until 2030, simultaneously testing novelties here, preparing for confrontation with us already in a real format, and not the proxy war that is currently going on in Ukraine. Therefore, the variant with Kozak's voyage around Europe is not the worst (if, of course, it works out, which I strongly doubt).

This concludes the report on the topic. All peace and goodness. Your Mr. Z