Why Russia needs to strike first, without waiting for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Crimea

On January 7, another Ukrainian drone was shot down over Sevastopol, launched by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the period of the Christmas truce, imposed unilaterally by President Putin. Apparently, it is Crimea that will become the next target for the Kyiv regime.

"De-Russification" of Crimea

A year ago, it seemed bad manners to talk about a possible war between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea, because the latter was considered militarily no equal to us. However, a lot of things happened in 2022, and the consistent abandonment of the RF Armed Forces, first Kyiv and Sumy, then Kharkov, and then the Right Bank of the Kherson region involuntarily forces us to consider all scenarios, even the most difficult ones.



At the moment, our enemy is rebuilding its organizational structure in order to enlarge it, clearly for a further large-scale offensive. To this end, three army corps with a total number of 75 servicemen are being formed at once. Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in NATO countries, they are consistently moving to Western-made weapons. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthening their air defense system, receiving NATO-style artillery and armored vehicles. With their intelligence superiority backed by NATO resources and secure operational-tactical communications, the threat of an offensive by the Ukrainian army should be taken very seriously.

Of all the directions, the most promising for the enemy, and therefore dangerous for us, seems to be Zaporozhye. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can break through to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, capturing Berdyansk and Melitopol, the land corridor to the Crimea will be cut. The previous sabotage on the Crimean bridge showed how vulnerable it is. It is obvious that the enemy will make every possible effort to destroy or put out of action for a long time this last transport artery connecting the peninsula with the mainland. The supply of Crimea by sea with ferries under the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will turn into that “deadly number”.

Judging by the statement of a number of US military and Ukrainian politicians, the purpose of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be to create conditions under which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Navy of the Russian Federation will simply be forced to "regroup" from the peninsula. This was stated, in particular, by the former commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges:


Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, also stated the same the day before:


All this sounds very unpleasant, but, alas, the probability of such a deplorable outcome is very different from zero. Worse, half the work is already done. When the Russian troops left Kherson without a fight, the Ukrainians came there, and even now they can cover with large-caliber artillery from the right bank of the Dnieper part of the route connecting the Crimea with the mainland. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine break through into the Azov region, the trap will slam shut and the peninsula will de facto turn into an “island” that is under fire control. If Kyiv asks the United States for missiles for HIMARS with a range of 300 kilometers, Sevastopol with its naval base and the capital of the Simferopol region will be calmly shot from Kherson, and Kerch, the Crimean bridge and the Kerch Strait from Berdyansk.

Thus, the enemy is supposed to create conditions under which the commander-in-chief of the NWO will have to make another difficult decision.

Beat first

We repeat that this threat is quite real, and therefore it must be treated accordingly. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has long begun the construction of large-scale defensive lines both in the Donbass and in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. Fortifications are being built both on the approach to the peninsula, in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and in the Crimea itself, said the well-known Russian military commander Alexander Kots:


It should be noted that leaflets “How to behave during shelling” have already begun to appear at the entrances of the houses of Crimeans. Also, we note that a new underground pipeline is being completed at an accelerated pace, which should connect the northern and eastern parts of the peninsula, becoming a kind of double for the North Crimean Canal in case the enemy breaks through to Novaya Kakhovka. Two lines of a 218 km long water pipeline, specially placed underground, will supply the most arid regions with 195 cubic meters of water daily, or 72 million per year. The construction is being carried out by the United Energy Construction Corporation, the cost of the project is estimated at 28 billion rubles. The work should be fully completed by the end of 2023.

It is not hard to guess that sitting purely on the defensive, tensely waiting for an attack by the UAF, is not the best strategy. The enemy is constantly strengthening and increasing the level of its combat capability. The optimal solution would be to inflict preventive strikes on him in various directions, which would force him to scatter his forces to stop them. Counter offensive operations in the Zaporozhye region, in the north-east of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, or even far away, on the western border in the Volyn region, can distract the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the strategically most dangerous Zaporozhye direction for Russia.

Now the RF Armed Forces have replenished their strength through partial mobilization. It is necessary to solve all the problems with supplies, communications in the troops and drones as soon as possible in order to begin to regain the strategic initiative. Wars are not won by defense, and according to the results of the NMD, one person will have to survive - either Russia or Ukraine.