Why Russia needs to strike first, without waiting for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Crimea


On January 7, another Ukrainian drone was shot down over Sevastopol, launched by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the period of the Christmas truce, imposed unilaterally by President Putin. Apparently, it is Crimea that will become the next target for the Kyiv regime.


"De-Russification" of Crimea


A year ago, it seemed bad manners to talk about a possible war between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea, because the latter was considered militarily no equal to us. However, a lot of things happened in 2022, and the consistent abandonment of the RF Armed Forces, first Kyiv and Sumy, then Kharkov, and then the Right Bank of the Kherson region involuntarily forces us to consider all scenarios, even the most difficult ones.

At the moment, our enemy is rebuilding its organizational structure in order to enlarge it, clearly for a further large-scale offensive. To this end, three army corps with a total number of 75 servicemen are being formed at once. Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in NATO countries, they are consistently moving to Western-made weapons. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthening their air defense system, receiving NATO-style artillery and armored vehicles. With their intelligence superiority backed by NATO resources and secure operational-tactical communications, the threat of an offensive by the Ukrainian army should be taken very seriously.

Of all the directions, the most promising for the enemy, and therefore dangerous for us, seems to be Zaporozhye. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can break through to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, capturing Berdyansk and Melitopol, the land corridor to the Crimea will be cut. The previous sabotage on the Crimean bridge showed how vulnerable it is. It is obvious that the enemy will make every possible effort to destroy or put out of action for a long time this last transport artery connecting the peninsula with the mainland. The supply of Crimea by sea with ferries under the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will turn into that “deadly number”.

Judging by the statement of a number of US military and Ukrainian politicians, the purpose of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be to create conditions under which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Navy of the Russian Federation will simply be forced to "regroup" from the peninsula. This was stated, in particular, by the former commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges:

All roads lead to Crimea. And as they get closer and closer, they will be able to use HIMARS and other long-range precision strikes to hit Russian targets in Crimea. And as soon as they start using precision-guided weapons against Russian air bases and logistics and naval installations in Crimea, then I think that Crimea will become unsuitable for defense. And that is why, I believe, Ukraine will liberate Crimea before the summer.

Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, also stated the same the day before:

If we liberate the territory of Lugansk, Donetsk or Zaporizhzhya regions, then Crimea comes under the total fire control of Ukraine. I do not quite understand what the Russians will do there. They will understand that they need to run.

All this sounds very unpleasant, but, alas, the probability of such a deplorable outcome is very different from zero. Worse, half the work is already done. When the Russian troops left Kherson without a fight, the Ukrainians came there, and even now they can cover with large-caliber artillery from the right bank of the Dnieper part of the route connecting the Crimea with the mainland. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine break through into the Azov region, the trap will slam shut and the peninsula will de facto turn into an “island” that is under fire control. If Kyiv asks the United States for missiles for HIMARS with a range of 300 kilometers, Sevastopol with its naval base and the capital of the Simferopol region will be calmly shot from Kherson, and Kerch, the Crimean bridge and the Kerch Strait from Berdyansk.

Thus, the enemy is supposed to create conditions under which the commander-in-chief of the NWO will have to make another difficult decision.

Beat first


We repeat that this threat is quite real, and therefore it must be treated accordingly. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has long begun the construction of large-scale defensive lines both in the Donbass and in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. Fortifications are being built both on the approach to the peninsula, in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and in the Crimea itself, said the well-known Russian military commander Alexander Kots:

Three lines of defense were erected directly on the territory of Crimea.

It should be noted that leaflets “How to behave during shelling” have already begun to appear at the entrances of the houses of Crimeans. Also, we note that a new underground pipeline is being completed at an accelerated pace, which should connect the northern and eastern parts of the peninsula, becoming a kind of double for the North Crimean Canal in case the enemy breaks through to Novaya Kakhovka. Two lines of a 218 km long water pipeline, specially placed underground, will supply the most arid regions with 195 cubic meters of water daily, or 72 million per year. The construction is being carried out by the United Energy Construction Corporation, the cost of the project is estimated at 28 billion rubles. The work should be fully completed by the end of 2023.

It is not hard to guess that sitting purely on the defensive, tensely waiting for an attack by the UAF, is not the best strategy. The enemy is constantly strengthening and increasing the level of its combat capability. The optimal solution would be to inflict preventive strikes on him in various directions, which would force him to scatter his forces to stop them. Counter offensive operations in the Zaporozhye region, in the north-east of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, or even far away, on the western border in the Volyn region, can distract the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the strategically most dangerous Zaporozhye direction for Russia.

Now the RF Armed Forces have replenished their strength through partial mobilization. It is necessary to solve all the problems with supplies, communications in the troops and drones as soon as possible in order to begin to regain the strategic initiative. Wars are not won by defense, and according to the results of the NMD, one person will have to survive - either Russia or Ukraine.
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  1. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 9 January 2023 15: 56
    +14
    It is not hard to guess that sitting purely on the defensive, tensely waiting for an attack by the UAF, is not the best strategy.

    Gold words! But, the whole problem is that the Russian army is led by amateurs! Shoigu, never served in the army. Putin too .... V. Gerasimov chief of the general staff theoretician. I would like to know how his theories helped the army. All his approximate generals received positions and awards in peacetime. Since June of last year, we have been sitting clearly on the defensive on the principle of "not one step forward." 90% of Russian soldiers die from shelling by American MLRS or artillery. The death of a large number of soldiers in Makeevka could not be hidden, but the death of 10-15 people on the front line is unnoticeable. They are silent about this. In general, so far nothing good is visible for Russia at the front.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 11 January 2023 00: 07
      0
      In general, Gerasimov went through all the stages of service, starting from the commander of a platoon, company, battalion, regiment, division, district.
  2. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 9 January 2023 16: 09
    +5
    Now the RF Armed Forces have replenished their strength through partial mobilization.

    Mobilization officially began on September 21, 2022. Soon she will be like 4 months old. That is, the first mobilized people can already go to demobilization in 3-4 months. Since the contract is for six months. The Wagner fighters will not let you lie. The first group of those who signed a contract for 180 days received a demobilization the other day. The question is - who will replace those mobilized in September-October?
    1. Muscool Offline Muscool
      Muscool (Glory) 10 January 2023 08: 40
      0
      Where did you read this information?
      Maybe in Wagner there are some restrictions on the service life, but the mobilized defense ministries will serve until the defense mines start demobilization, there is no question of half a year, someone misled you.
  3. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 9 January 2023 16: 18
    +2
    The shelling is a reason for the removal of the civilian population, but not an excuse for the "regrouping" of the military. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were under shelling in the semi-encircled Kharkov, they are holding in all these Avdiivka / Soledary / Vugledary / Sands.
    Our warriors have enough time and money to dig into the ground and make a fortress out of every house.
    If they are not ready to fight on the defensive, then on the offensive they are definitely guaranteed hits with the Hymars.

    It is not hard to guess that sitting purely on the defensive, tensely waiting for an attack by the UAF, is not the best strategy. The enemy is constantly strengthening and increasing the level of its combat capability. The best solution would be to inflict preventive strikes on him.

    Near Kursk-1943 they showed restraint - and everything worked out.
  4. Semyon Sukhov Offline Semyon Sukhov
    Semyon Sukhov (Semyon Sukhov) 9 January 2023 16: 33
    +1
    ..according to the results of the NWO, only one person will have to remain - either Russia or Ukraine.

    That's for sure...
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 9 January 2023 16: 59
    +2
    Tse demilitarization Z.

    A year ago, it seemed bad manners to talk about a possible war between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea, because the latter was considered militarily no equal to us.

    and now...

    Apparently, it is Crimea that will become the next target for the Kyiv regime.

    (I don’t care, it’s true that Ukraine doesn’t have a fleet for landing, but you still need to get to the narrow isthmus, but it will “become” ...)

    Therefore, beat, beat and beat ... in the name of demilitarization ...
  6. The comment was deleted.
  7. garryteeth5gmail.com (harry T) 9 January 2023 18: 04
    -8
    Obviously a provocateur wrote with the aim of luring our troops into an open field, where they will shoot us with accurate Western weapons
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 11 January 2023 00: 13
      -1
      In general, people like dust write about amateurs in the General Staff of the Russian Federation, but I doubt very much that couch experts without special higher military education are sitting there, without which they simply do not serve in responsible positions in the General Staff by definition.
  8. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 9 January 2023 18: 50
    +8
    There were no normal words for our military-political steers for a long time ... Only a mat ... Fighters - good luck, health, if the wounds are small ...
  9. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 9 January 2023 18: 50
    +3
    Well, for all the conventionality of the reasoning about the Ukronat attempts to break into the Crimea, Sergei is absolutely right that it is necessary to carry out successful offensive operations. Moreover, I think, including in order to somehow shake, if not destroy the myth that has appeared about the powerful Ukrainian military and the weakness of the RF Armed Forces.
    War professionals know better, but I, thinking about what successful offensive actions can really be, come to the conclusion that individual operations will be very difficult. But if you use at least three directions at the same time, then the opposite side will have difficulties. One sees a blow along the Kharkiv-Poltava line cutting the AFU front in two, with access to the Dnieper, along with the long-awaited destruction of all the Dnieper bridges. At the same time, it will still be necessary to bang the leadership of the fallow, along with the bunkers, or wherever they sit, with the final destruction of the energy supply to Kyiv. And, of course, at the same time go along the Polish border.
    Do we have enough forces and means for this? I expect that they are accumulating in the required quantity for the time being.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 11 January 2023 00: 22
      +2
      Of course, rushing to the Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk line is a dream, for which you certainly need at least 300 thousand with weapons, since you will have to surround the one and a half millionth Kharkov and hold two lines of defense. It is more realistic to strike east of Kharkov on Izyum, destroying the encircled grouping near the Lugansk line.
  10. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 10 January 2023 08: 05
    +5
    Our time does not put forward the Suvorovs, Kutuzovs and Zhukovs. And the word "authority" in our time in our society means a successful thief and bandit
  11. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 10 January 2023 08: 50
    +1
    I heard this option somewhere else: the ukrovermacht can rush to Svatovo and further to the north of the Luhansk region - Starobelsk - Belovodsk - the village of Luganskaya. To take the M4 highway under fire control.
    We'll have to establish supplies through Volgograd. Although this is probably an unlikely scenario.
  12. av58 Offline av58
    av58 (Andrei) 10 January 2023 14: 18
    +6
    Enough already to engage in chivalry: either war, and then you need to fight, and not "protect the civilian population," or go home. It's time to find and fuck Zelensky. and the entire Kuev leadership is both military and civilian, and do not be shy with weapons. There are not so many historical buildings in Kyiv after the Second World War, the captive Banderlogs will be able to restore the city, so why wait? To the ruins of Bankovaya and its environs, and faster. Khokhlostana's communications with Poleska and the West also go there.
  13. guest Offline guest
    guest 10 January 2023 15: 36
    +3
    according to the results of the SVO, only one person will have to remain - either Russia or Ukraine.

    So it is, but it does not reach the top of ours.
  14. Vladimir R. Offline Vladimir R.
    Vladimir R. (Vladimir Russian) 10 January 2023 16: 13
    0
    I think that if there is a threat of Ukrainian occupation of the Russian Crimea, we will inflict a nuclear strike and not only on Ukraine. We simply will not have another way out.
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 10 January 2023 16: 54
      +1
      And the threat of occupation by Ukraine of other new regions of Russia does not count?
  15. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
    Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 10 January 2023 16: 33
    0
    What author are you writing about? Do we have opportunities for this? They left Kherson because they decided that there were not enough forces for this. The NGSH said that the front is 815 km, I already wrote if even one fighter per 10 meters is already 81 thousand, that is, in addition to those 150 thousand who entered in the spring and are at the front, we need at least 1 - 1,5 million more to feel confident, this is only l / s, in addition, you need to produce weapons, repair damaged ones. And when you read that the repair plant is being closed, you clearly understand why Kadyrov is outraged. At the moment, we have one way out, to build a reliable defense, to produce weapons, to establish logistics, medicine, food, to pay special attention to the life of the troops, there are enough problems, but of course, do not forget about what everything is happening for.
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 10 January 2023 16: 50
      +3
      Quote: Sergei Fonov
      They left Kherson because they decided that there were not enough forces for this.

      Well, this is an official explanation, but in reality they left it at the request of Abramovich and the Turkish Sultan.
      1. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
        Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 11 January 2023 17: 31
        -1
        If this is so, then fewer and fewer people will repeat after Suvorov "Thank God that I am Russian."
    2. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 11 January 2023 00: 28
      +2
      It should be borne in mind that of those 150 thousand that entered it is good if half is left. After all, there are wounded, killed, with an expired contract. Finally, there are soldiers who provide communications, supplies, medicine. So, not by 10 meters, but by all 40, and the mobilized have already partially filled the thinned ranks.
  16. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 11 January 2023 13: 04
    +4
    Gerasimov does not make a decision, he is an executor, he can only propose to Putin-Shoigu for consideration. It is necessary to attack, but there is nothing, the strength is not enough, so we sit on the defensive and carry out small-town offensives. There is no legal framework for Ukraine, like China has for Taiwan. The deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the President of the Russian Federation Putin do not adopt the Law, which would stipulate that the entire territory of Ukraine is an integral part of Russia. The presence of such a law would have given rise to an offensive on the military-political front, would have given everyone certainty and outlined the goal. Everyone would know what the war is for.
    1. Sancym Offline Sancym
      Sancym (Alexander ) 15 January 2023 01: 24
      0
      Vlad, don't worry, it will pass! Remember (and rejoice) the proverb:

      Who was not stupid, he was not young!
  17. Sancym Offline Sancym
    Sancym (Alexander ) 15 January 2023 01: 21
    0
    Sergey, you think like a real strategist!!! I think you used to write smarter.