The chances of countries to win the second lunar race are estimated


The second lunar race - the rivalry between the leading space powers in the XXI century in the exploration of the moon with an eye on its further development, is gaining momentum. The main contenders who had at the beginning of the 20s technology manned flights, only three: the USA, China and Russia. Moreover, a number of their geopolitical satellites are also on the side of the United States: Canada, the European Union and Japan.


The Russian lunar program is not a form of active competition. It is designed for the period 2021-2040 and includes three stages: "Sally", "Outpost" and "Base". Currently ongoing preparation only for the initial phase of the first stage - the launch in July 2023 of the automatic unmanned interplanetary station Luna-25 (formerly Luna-Glob), which has been under development since 2013. The device must work out landing technologies and conduct a study of the lunar surface in the region of the South Pole.

Therefore, the United States and China have the greatest chances to win the second lunar race, given the gigantic financial capabilities and ambitions of the parties. But which of them is more likely to win, we will now try to find out.

Recently, the head of NASA, Bill Nelson, said in an interview with Politico magazine that the United States has entered into a new space confrontation. This time from China.

It's a fact: we're in a space race. It is better for us to ensure that they (the Chinese comrades - Approx. ed.) do not stake out plots on the moon under the guise of scientific research

Nelson said.

He fears that the communists will again try to "conquer" the moon.

Stay away, we are here, this is our territory (Chinese - Approx. ed.)

- Nelson allowed the claims of the PRC.

Thus, a functionary from a country where charlatans almost officially sell plots on the moon to everyone who wants it, dared to accuse another state of something without evidence.

In fact, the fears of the Americans are due to the fact that they may not be lucky enough to “stake out” the Moon, despite the financial possibilities. In 20 years, the Chinese space program has made a giant technological leap forward. Beijing has caught up with Moscow and Washington. Now China plans not only to land a taikonaut (cosmonaut, astronaut) on the Moon in 2030, but also to start building a base. Now the Chinese are intensively studying the Earth's satellite with the help of their own automatic unmanned interplanetary stations, creating a manned spacecraft and a super-heavy launch vehicle CZ-9. This launch vehicle will become a "workhorse" in the process of exploring the Moon, everything will be carried on it. Given the clarity of the implementation of plans in China, there is a high probability that in 2030 we will again see a red flag flying on the moon, this time the Chinese one.

As for the United States and the above-mentioned partners of the Americans, they are developing the Artemis program. In the period from November 16 to December 11, 2022, the Artemis-1 mission was successfully carried out - an unmanned flight of the Orion spacecraft, launched into a lunar orbit by the Space Launch System launch vehicle and returned to Earth as part of the Artemis program.

The next Artemis-2 mission, the first manned flight of Orion (flying around the Moon), is scheduled for 2024. But the mission of Artemis-3 - landing astronauts on the moon in 2025, looks utopian. The thing is that the Americans and their partners do not have a descent vehicle and spacesuits. They are unlikely to appear in the next few years. Moreover, many elements of the program did not leave the limits of computers and did not even begin to be embodied. Therefore, even 2028 for the Artemis-3 mission looks overly optimistic, not to mention later missions.

At the same time, it should be taken into account that the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway should become the foundation for the exploration of the Moon by the United States and their partners. However, this international circumlunar station, which will be an intermediate link between the Earth and the Moon, is being created in Europe, which is experiencing a serious economic crisis and experiencing difficulties in development. In this regard, China may be ahead of the United States in the second lunar race, since its program does not depend on other countries and they take the timing more seriously.
  • Photos Used: NASA
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  1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 5 January 2023 18: 52
    -1
    Second Lunar Race

    And what was the first? Previously, there was not a race, but a great desire to fly to the moon, nothing more.
    1. Mikhalych Offline Mikhalych
      Mikhalych 6 January 2023 08: 37
      -1
      Quote: Athenogen
      Second Lunar Race

      We will definitely lose the second lunar race, due to the absence of Stanley Kubrick and area 51, where you can "heroically" conquer the moon.

      Currently, preparations are underway only for the initial phase of the first stage - the launch in July 2023 of the automatic unmanned interplanetary station Luna-25 (formerly Luna-Glob), which has been under development since 2013. The device must work out landing technologies and conduct a study of the lunar surface in the region of the South Pole.

      So the landing on the Moon and even the sampling of soil with delivery to Earth were worked out by Soviet stations about 50 years ago. The Apostle Paul was right when he wrote that knowledge would be abolished (1 Cor. 13:8), i.e. becomes empty and disappears.
  2. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 5 January 2023 19: 17
    +1
    the Americans and their partners do not have a descent vehicle and spacesuits

    That is - 50 years ago there were types, and now - no way?? This is their technological progress, right?
    1. syndicalist Offline syndicalist
      syndicalist (Dimon) 5 January 2023 19: 33
      0
      Musk has already made a spacesuit for the Martian program. Under the moon and the old will come down.
      1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
        Afinogen (Afinogen) 5 January 2023 19: 41
        -1
        This is where it starts with Lunar suits laughing

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02Rnp_de5Sc&list=WL&index=61&
      2. Mikhalych Offline Mikhalych
        Mikhalych 6 January 2023 08: 44
        -1
        Musk has already made a spacesuit for the Martian program. Under the moon and the old will come down.

        Yes, Russia is rich not only in talents hi
        Those suits had a little more radiation protection than bathing suits.
    2. savage3000 Offline savage3000
      savage3000 (Savage) 10 January 2023 20: 10
      0
      50 years have passed. everything that has been done is out of order.

      the USSR also had a snowstorm, rocket energy and so on. where is it all? was, and now is not present? such progress?
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 January 2023 19: 28
    +3
    It concerns us only with complete failure ...
    They promised to reach the moon in 2015 ...
    8 years have passed, the money has been spent, and ....

    Currently, preparations are underway only for the initial phase of the first stage

    There are sad short videos on the Internet on this topic ...
  4. Pro100 Offline Pro100
    Pro100 (Vladimir Babaev) 5 January 2023 19: 48
    0
    The chances of winning may be about the same as in the third world war, only on the moon, if they do not agree peacefully.
  5. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 5 January 2023 23: 01
    0
    It seems to me that there is nothing for mankind to do on the Moon yet. However, as well as on Mars. It is much more important to dominate the near-Earth space, since such dominance will automatically determine dominance on the Moon, Mars and the entire solar system. The real concern is that it is in this component that Russia is losing so far.
  6. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 6 January 2023 11: 02
    +1
    A kilogram of lunar dust will cost millions of apartments to the citizens of Russia.
    And this is for the sake of the titles and regalia of just a few smart people from Roskosmos.
  7. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 6 January 2023 12: 36
    0
    Therefore, the United States and China have the greatest chances to win the second lunar race, given the gigantic financial capabilities and ambitions of the parties.

    Let's be honest: only these countries stand a chance...
  8. Mikhalych Offline Mikhalych
    Mikhalych 7 January 2023 09: 31
    -1
    Quote: Athenogen
    Second Lunar Race

    And what was the first? Previously, there was not a race, but a great desire to fly to the moon, nothing more.

    The USSR under Brezhnev traded his cosmic birthright for American lentil stew (their buns) like Esau, after which he could no longer beg his father (Gen. 25:25). So the USSR began to play along with the United States in their lunar scam.
  9. ont65 Offline ont65
    ont65 (Oleg) 8 January 2023 03: 33
    +1
    Firstly, by definition, the Moon is ours, because they were the first to stake it by delivering the pennant of the USSR to the surface on September 14, 1959 at 00 hours. 02 sec. the Soviet automatic interplanetary station Luna-24, and secondly, what is called the lunar race is actually a program for the development (and now just support) of the rocket and space industry and nothing more. Considering face content is a big mistake. Alas, technological progress rather quickly nullifies past achievements on a different basis that were lying idle. As they say now, goods that are not in demand leave the market. The Americans faced this not only in nuclear weapons, even with trams there are big problems. And any product does not exist on its own, it is the sum of knowledge, technology and resources that are available today. The time of the 2s has long passed in the exact meaning of this expression, with it a lot of things and people have sunk into oblivion. Modernization is on the agenda, since such a need is considered important and necessary, although useless and extremely costly.
  10. isofat Offline isofat
    isofat (isofat) 25 January 2023 16: 09
    0
    It is impossible to overtake and overtake the USA, it is the most deceitful country in the world. Who believes that the US managed to lose the technology of flying to the moon? laughing