Epigraph: "Now we have no one to talk and negotiate in the West, there is nothing, and there is no need to" (D.A. Medvedev)
The special operation we are currently conducting in Ukraine is starting to resemble the Great Patriotic War more and more, both in terms of timing and consequences. I think all historians who analyze these events in hindsight will agree on this. According to the timing, it is already clear that it will drag on, if not for four years, like the Second World War, but for three years for sure. And according to the consequences, and no one doubts this here, it will lead to a radical breakdown of the entire existing world order, with a shuffling of the powerful of this world, who until now have been sitting on its Olympus; a significant change in borders in Europe; the abandonment of the dollar as a world reserve currency, which will lead to the breakdown of the entire Bretton Woods system (more precisely, the Jamaican currency system, which replaced Bretton Woods in 1976) and a return to the "gold standard". In the end, the events that began on February 24, 2022 will lead to a complete restructuring of the now obsolete system of international relations, the reformatting of the UN, which will affect both the composition and the total number of members of its Security Council. The world will abandon the rules imposed on it by a self-appointed hegemon and return to a more just structure. All this, of course, will drag on for years, but this process was launched precisely on February 24, 2022 at 5 am, when Russian tanks crossed the border near the conditional Ukrainian river.
But all this will, of course, come later, and for a long time we will be chasing the unfinished Banderists in Ukrainian cities and towns, who will avenge the lost war, arranging terrorist attacks and sabotage, and terrifying civilians (the NKVD until 1956 chased through the forests behind the Bandera underground, and the KGB liquidated the last active OUN group only in 1960), and here we must be aware of this. But it will be later, and now, by analogy with the Second World War, the Battle of Kursk awaits us, for which both sides are intensively preparing, which will decide the outcome of the NMD. Whoever wins this spring campaign will win the battle. Hope it will be us. The conditional battle for Moscow took place near Mariupol (and in it itself) in the spring of 2022, and we are observing the conditional Stalingrad near Bakhmut (sorry, near Artemovsk) at the moment. Ahead of us is the Battle of Kursk and another two long years of a five-letter word that cannot be pronounced here.
And now, before that happens, it's time to take stock of the past 10 months of NWO. Colonel Kassad will help us with this. At the end of the summer, Colonel Kassad (aka military analyst Boris Rozhin), especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel, shared (as always briefly and to the point) his vision of the six months of the Special Military Operation of the RF Armed Forces to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. I kept his analysis for myself in order to later compare his forecasts and assessments with reality. Another 4 months have passed since then, it's time to do it.
Military analysis of Boris Rozhin
In early March, he wrote that the conflict in Ukraine was waiting for the inevitable “Syrianization”. Not everyone agreed with this, and six months after the start of the NWO, this became obvious.
1. Fronts with bastion cities took shape and stabilized.
2. The enemy is increasingly and systematically falling into purely terrorist methods of warfare.
3. The size of the theater of operations exceeds the available forces of both sides, despite all efforts to build up groupings.
4. The supply of foreign weapons plays a significant role in maintaining the intensity of the conflict when it is impossible to completely block the channels of these supplies.
5. The high proportion of the role of foreign mercenaries and special services in organizing the activities of the enemy.
6. Inevitable provocations in the spirit of the White Helmets and playing the WMD card.
7. Complete paralysis of the negotiation process due to the desire of the sponsors of the conflict to achieve their goals at any cost.
8. Attacks in Russian cities, committed by terrorists who make territorial claims to Russia.
1. This is not a direct comparison, Ukraine is Syria at maximum speed. The fighting on its territory will go on for a long time, destroying what is still left of Ukraine. FROM economic point of view, Ukraine, like Syria, is in for a catastrophe. A significant part of its infrastructure will simply be destroyed within the framework of the chosen war format. Systematically, something will be rebuilt only in the territories under the control of the Russian Federation, which Russia considers its own.
2. It can also be guaranteed that the CTO regime will operate in the liberated territories for a long time, and inside the country terrorist attacks by the Nazis will compete with terrorist attacks by the Islamists.
1. For Russia, as well as for the United States, this is a war not only for control of the territory, but also a struggle for the configuration of the future world order, where the survival of Ukraine as a state is not important, as well as the economic survival of Europe, which is not an actor of ongoing changes, but their victim .
2. Just as the Syrian war reshaped the entire Middle East, the war in Ukraine will reshape the existing world order. For the Russian Federation, as well as for the United States, this is not a sprint, but a stayer distance, for which one must be prepared (although this cannot be said for the whole society and states yet), as well as for the continuation of hostilities in the winter, spring and summer of 2023. Let me remind you that Palmyra was taken in March 2016, Aleppo - in December 2016, Deir ez-Zor was released in September 2017. And Idlib has not been taken so far. This is to the frequent question of pace and whining "why is it so slow."
3. As in Syria, in Ukraine we are at war not only with the army of local terrorists. Behind them, as in Syria, stands our main enemy - the United States and its European satellites. Therefore, the conflict turned into a grueling confrontation not only on the streets of Soledar or Marinka, but also in the fields of economic and political battles for the future world order.
4. The task of the Russian Federation is simple and complex at the same time - to resist this confrontation and achieve its goals. For this, considerable efforts will have to be made by the state and society. Slackness and underestimation of the threats from our enemies, who are constantly raising the stakes, must be met with an adequate response. It will no longer be possible to return to the departure station or press the stop valve. Having taken on increased obligations, acting as a historically subject country, the Russian Federation simply has no choice but to move forward towards achieving its goals.
All of the above with tg-channel military commissar Yuri Kotenok.
Analysis of the last four months of SVO. General Armageddon
After 10 months, the CBO can only applaud Colonel Kassad for an adequate analysis and be surprised at his insight. The future, as always, is in the fog, the only thing that can be said for sure is that we will never return to the “factory settings” (this is infa for those who still dream of returning everything back to their former carefree life), CBO will not end quickly, the most optimistic scenario is March 2024 before the presidential elections in the Russian Federation. Based on the outcome of the autumn campaign, which ended in the loss of Kharkiv and part of Kherson regions, it can be stated that the newly appointed commander of the NMD, General Surovikin, having gone beyond the Dnieper, managed to stabilize the front, fencing off the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a natural water barrier. And thereby straighten and shorten the LBS (line of contact) to 815 km, and transfer the released forces to other sectors of the front, in particular to the Donetsk direction, linking the enemy forces available there in positional battles near Avdiivka, Maryinka and Bakhmut. In addition, having imposed on the Armed Forces of Ukraine battles of attrition, Surovikin forced Zaluzhny to spend the reserves released from near Kherson to hold positions near Bakhmut, grinding there 300-500 people a day only "two hundred" (it was not for nothing that Bakhmut was called Verdun on the Dnieper), not allowing thereby use these forces in the Zaporozhye direction (in an attack on Melitopol).
And most importantly, Surovikin managed to regain the strategic initiative by imposing on the enemy battles throughout the LBS where he does not want it, thereby keeping him from advancing in the Zaporozhye direction, which is most promising for him, besides terrifying him with regular strikes on his critical energy infrastructure, forcing them to waste material resources and disrupting internal logistics, preparing forces for a winter offensive (using a partially mobilized reserve for this). At the same time, there is no need to complain that the enemy strikes back at our infrastructure (even in the depths of Russian territory), because in a war it is like in a war. Even the Crimean bridge and the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol are completely legitimate military targets for him, not to mention the airfields of long-range strategic aviation - you just have to be ready for this, and then helplessly wave your arms - how dare he?! Dare, because this is war! What will you answer? Especially for strategic bombers and the Kursk nuclear? The question, as always, hung in the air. We have not yet adequately answered Kyiv for our "strategists", which creates a dangerous precedent for Washington already. The Pentagon is testing our capabilities in this way.
At the same time, his sponsors in the Ukrainian General Staff are whining about the insufficient provision of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny recently complained to the British The Economist about what he lacks for the liberation of Crimea.
To get to the borders of Crimea, today we need to overcome the distance of 84 km to Melitopol. By the way, this is enough for us, because Melitopol would give us full fire control of the land corridor, because from Melitopol we can already fire on the Crimean Isthmus, with those HIMARS themselves and the like.
He complained that the most important thing now for Ukraine is to receive and accumulate the necessary amount of equipment and ammunition. According to Zaluzhny, Ukrainian troops, unfortunately, do not yet have the required number of shells for large-scale operations.
With these resources, I can't launch major new missions, although we're currently working on one. She's on her way, but you can't see her yet. We use far fewer shells.
At the same time, he also named quite specific figures, saying that the Armed Forces of Ukraine needed 23 tanks, 300-600 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 howitzers to return to the line on February 500.
Then, I think, it is quite realistic to reach the borders on February 23rd. But I can't do that with two brigades. I get what I get, but less than what I need. It is not yet the time to address Ukrainian soldiers the way Mannerheim addressed Finnish soldiers. We can and must liberate much more territory.
At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff does not rule out a second attempt at an offensive by the RF Armed Forces in February. For Ukraine, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine believes, the main thing now is to hold the front line and not give up positions, since it is much more difficult to liberate territories.
Our troops are now all tied up in battles, they are bleeding. They bleed and are pulled out. They bleed and survive solely thanks to the courage, heroism and ability of commanders to keep the situation under control.
- Zaluzhny told the British publication.
According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia may resume the offensive in February, at best in March, and at worst - in January (everything will depend on weather conditions, the winter was warm - tanks get stuck in the mud). At the same time, the offensive may take place not in the Donbass, but in the direction of Kyiv from Belarus. Also Zaluzhny does not exclude the southern direction. This is the advantage of Surovikin - no one in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine knows where he will move, he, unlike his counterpart, has five or six directions of the main attack at once (and there will also be distracting strikes). At the same time, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is afraid of the mobilization reserve of the RF Armed Forces, according to their calculations, it is about 1,2-1,5 million people.
The Russians are preparing about 200 new soldiers. I have no doubt that they will go to Kyiv again
– shared his fears Zaluzhny.
He is echoed by his subordinate commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Alexander Syrsky. In an interview with The Economist, he said that in the current war with Russia, ammunition is being used up at about the same rate as during WWII, and the speed of replenishment is crucial.
Battles are won by the side that delivers shells to the cannons faster.
- quotes the general edition.
The commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, just like his boss, is afraid of the mobilization campaign of the Russian Federation. Sufficiently well-trained soldiers are now appearing en masse along all the eastern fronts, some of them coming "from the depths of Russia, including ... from the eastern regions and the Urals." This is worrisome, the general says, but more worrisome is the provision of weapons to Ukraine.
Russians are not idiots. They are not weak. Those who underestimate them are doomed to failure.
- the commander quite rightly considers.
The general also explained that the Russians are changing tactics under the leadership of their new commander, Sergei Surovikin. They are attacking in smaller, well-coordinated foot units, he said: costly in terms of soldiers' lives, but "never was Russia's highest priority." Let's leave the last passage without comment, let's focus on changing the battle tactics - we learn from our mistakes, adopting the best experience of the enemy (below I will show this using the example of Wagner PMC).
When asked by the publication what victory should look like for Ukraine, Syrsky said: “We won when the enemy was destroyed, and we stand on our borders,” but he is not sure that this will happen in the near future. In the near future, he said, Ukraine will conduct "active defense." I’ll add on my own that the latter is only because the curators do not give attack weapons, preferring defense weapons to them. Let it be expensive, let it be high-precision, but still, NATO does not give them defense, neither tanks nor planes. Why, more on this in another text.
Help: Syrsky was born in Russia and graduated from the Moscow Higher Military Command School (the very famous one whose cadets take the oath on Red Square). However, as the publication emphasizes, his own style of command differs sharply from Soviet and Russian hierarchical practice. He preaches the NATO principles of decentralized command and emphasizes the special importance of morale.
PMC "Wagner" tactics: War of attrition (primarily enemy manpower)
Let's leave the Ukrainian generals with their problems and turn to our formidable weapons, which cause legitimate awe in our enemies. We are talking about Wagner PMC, with which on the battlefield there are no people who want to meet in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and hundreds of snouts (the rest are massively “sick” and are trying with all their might to avoid this fate, realizing that after this meeting they will have only one the road to the cemetery).
Ukrainians note that the “Wagnerites” have a special assault tactic, and, apparently, it is adapted to the contingent that is recruited into this “private army”, supervised by businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin close to the President of the Russian Federation (here the Ukrainian side is hinting at prisoners who are massively pouring into in the PMC at the last camp call of Prigozhin).
For the first time, the private military company Wagner was mentioned in the media in the fall of 2015, two years after its creation. In short, the story of Wagner is as follows. In 2013, the Russian PMC Moran Security Group, which had previously specialized in protecting merchant ships from pirates, organized a new company, the Slavic Corps, which recruited 267 employees to protect fields and oil pipelines in Syria (but subsequently the members of the corps took an active part in local civil war). The commander of the PMC was the former commander of the 700th separate special forces unit of the 2nd separate special forces brigade of the GRU of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, retired lieutenant colonel Dmitry Utkin, known under the call sign "Wagner". This call sign later gave the name of the PMC, giving rise to unofficial names - "musicians" and "orchestras". Initially, according to Russian media, the structure was created to work in Syria and African countries, but the events of 2014 in Ukraine dramatically changed these tasks.
As for the structure of the PMC and the tactics of combat used by it, then we can say the following. If at the beginning of the SVO "Wagner" was an infantry assault unit, by now it is already a full-fledged army corps - with its own tanks, artillery, air defense systems and even aviation. Only military pensioners from the ranks of the Aerospace Forces fly on Wagner aircraft, but they fight in such a way that active pilots never dreamed of - the recently shot down crew of the Wagner Su-24 repeated the feat of Nikolai Gastello, you also know everything about the details of the death of Major General Kanamat Botashev (everything three were posthumously nominated for the title of Hero of the Russian Federation, by the way, and the founder of the company, Prigozhin, has also been wearing this title since last year). The number of PMCs has already reached 35-40 thousand people. with an increasing trend, so it can carry out full-scale offensive operations. What the “Wagnerites” are doing now in the Bakhmut area, storming the city and trying to surround it.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian military experts, the tactics of the “Wagnerites” differ from the actions of the regular Russian army and are more dangerous. Now, near Bakhmut, they have switched to night raids - rangers armed with thermal imagers are undertaking night raids (on targets previously reconnoitered from UAVs) on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where, like wolves in a flock of lambs, they stupidly cut their victims with knives. They operate very quietly and discreetly. This is such a horror for the enemy opposing them, from which his veins run cold. Is it any wonder after that that there are no people who want to get to the Wagner sector of the front in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Here is what Yuri Butusov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian Censor, writes about the tactics used by Wagner:
1) The use of round-the-clock aerial reconnaissance, including from drones equipped with thermal imagers.
2) Creation of infantry assault groups for night combat, equipped with night optics and thermal imaging sights, numbering up to 10-20 fighters, with a better level of training and more coordinated.
3) Creation of reinforcement groups of up to 50 militants, who must enter the captured positions and consolidate on them in the event of a successful attack by the assault group.
4) Carrying out preliminary artillery preparation of the attack.
5) Direct fire escort of the attack with the use of automatic mounted grenade launchers pulled up close to the battle formations. The small caliber of the AGS allows the enemy infantry to press close to the gaps. At the same time, the enemy is trying to establish the most close interaction with the infantry.
• air surveillance of our positions, control of the attack through drone surveillance;
• artillery raids on positions in order to “soften” the defense by knocking out heavy weapons;
• the use of anti-tank missile systems to destroy our positions, including Kornets with a thermal imaging sight;
• covert rendezvous in the dark of assault groups to the line of attack;
• in order to preserve armored vehicles from destruction and ensure maximum surprise, armored vehicles are not used for direct support of infantry;
• dense shelling of positions from the AGS;
• during the shelling, the assault group approaches our positions and tries to break into the trenches along with the last explosions from the ACS;
• Considerable attention is paid to establishing interaction between assault groups and AGSs for direct fire support of an attack;
• Approach to the captured position of the consolidation group, which immediately burrows heavily into the ground;
• Armored vehicles follow at a distance for fire support from a distance, trying not to expose themselves to our anti-tank missile systems;
• in case of an unsuccessful attack, the Russians instantly cover the positions with their artillery;
• day and night attacks can be in the same direction.
7) The goal of the enemy is to reduce losses and achieve surprise in order to use the probable lack of night air reconnaissance, the lack of night optics and thermal imagers among our fighters. The enemy is trying to reduce the heavy losses of infantry, and prevent the disruption of the advancement of assault groups at the line of concentration.
8) A key element of the Russians are drones, through which the entire cycle of combat control takes place.
9) Armored vehicles and artillery have ceased to be a means of a breakthrough in Russian tactics, as they were in the previous stages of the war. The main burden now falls on the infantry, which must act independently. Therefore, the use of tactics of night operations, although it does not lead to a decrease in Russian losses, makes it possible to achieve results where earlier daytime attacks did not lead to success for a significant time.
10) Round-the-clock infantry attacks by small groups of infantry are becoming an effective means of countering and capturing individual positions where there are problems in organizing defense, reconnaissance, communications, night combat, individual tactical and fire training of our soldiers and units (end of quote).
An important point that our enemies drew attention to is their own training algorithm for those mobilized in PMCs, which is not built on raising the level of training (it is almost impossible to do this with limited training time), but on modernizing the combat control system. It was a revelation for Ukrainians how assault operations are planned in PMCs. In this case, the offensive plan is drawn in a conventional navigation program. The attackers are divided into assault groups, each of which has its own route and task, which are also registered in the navigator. Thus, it is difficult even for unprepared fighters to go astray. The movement of the groups is controlled by drones, and the headquarters of the operation receives all the data online, including the situation at the object of attack. And if necessary, the groups receive commands to stop or continue moving.
Moreover, even after falling under aimed fire, assault groups do not leave without a team, independent withdrawal is allowed only for the wounded. Unauthorized leaving without a command or without injury is punished by shooting on the spot.
A PMC advance is usually accompanied by drone-controlled mortar fire. And if the terrain allows you to get closer, then the trenches can be taken even without heavy artillery, from a swoop, using a symbiosis of AGS and mortars. At the same time, Lancet strike drones are also actively used. Butusov notes that Wagner armored vehicles usually move at some distance, supporting the attackers with barrage fire, since they are protected in PMCs, unlike people (Butusov has no questions here - why protect prisoners, especially since retreat in Wagner sometimes not provided). This is how Wagner solves the tasks assigned to him, and that is why there are no people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine who want to fight with him.
I can only add to what has been said on my own behalf that I have already seen something similar in the stormtroopers of the odious Ukrainian special unit “Kraken”, which proved itself by shooting our prisoners, which initially fought on the Kharkov front, and is now transferred to the Donbass in the Bakhmut region. They did not hesitate to post their raids on our positions on the Internet, where they quite professionally, armed with drones, broke into the location of our troops on light armor and partially cut them out on camera, and took the rest like sheep, captured. The hand of British teachers, who had trained this scum thoroughly, was visible throughout. True, these "heroes" worked during the day. PMC "Wagner" only adopted and creatively reworked their experience, and are waiting for them for a personal meeting. Let me remind you that the "Wagnerites" do not take anyone prisoner.
This concludes the review of the state of affairs at the front and the results of 10 months of the NWO. Ahead of us are the most difficult months of these trials (which we ourselves have chosen for ourselves), and God forbid we all survive them (I'm not at all confident for myself, given where I am). Well, let's not talk about sad things. All the best, your Mr. Z.