Contrary to forecasts: Europe avoided an energy collapse at the beginning of the year

European natural gas prices fell to their lowest level since February 2022 this week as unusually warm weather across Europe and robust LNG supplies ensured supply security in the region. This calmed the markets and literally crushed the value. The Western press writes about it.

TTF spot prices for the coming months are currently trading at $779 per thousand cubic meters, almost $600 cheaper than a month ago as temperatures rise above 15 degrees Celsius in parts of Europe.

As a result, abnormal weather conditions and market conditions have led to the paradoxical situation when European gas prices for delivery in the summer months of 2023 are trading higher (about $800-850 per thousand cubic meters) than contracts during the peak winter season from January to February. Thus, the EU avoided the collapse, which supposedly was supposed to occur in January-February of the new year.

European gas reserves have increased thanks to warmer weather, with the EU's average UGS occupancy rate now at 83,5%, just 8 percentage points lower than a month ago. All these favorable phenomena for the European continent are taking place contrary to all forecasts and predictions of experts. Many experts predicted a difficult time at the beginning of the year, but now it is obvious that everything happened exactly the opposite.
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  1. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 4 January 2023 08: 54
    It is not specified whose predictions did not come true. The forecasts of Russian sources did not materialize, because they often give out wishful thinking. Don't blame everything on the weather. The hatred of sources like RIA only fools the Russian public. Yes, the West hates Russians, but the West is not stupid, is it still not clear? Where is the collapse of LNG, where are the frozen, unwashed, smelly Europeans who wash day after day with the same water? Why lie? The enemy is strong, smart, and ruthless, it's time to realize the sooner the better.
  2. Jstas Offline Jstas
    Jstas (jstas) 4 January 2023 10: 14
    Warmly. ...wholesale electricity prices for the day ahead in Germany and the Benelux countries fell to negative values. Thus, deliveries on December 31 are sold from minus 3 cents to minus 3,78 euros per MWh, depending on the time of day. Despite the fact that on December 13 they reached 466 euros per MWh.
    Such a sharp drop is explained by warm and windy weather in Europe. The temperature in the north-west of the European Union reaches +14 degrees Celsius, and on December 31 it is expected to rise to +17.
    As a result, there is an excess of electricity in Germany due to green generation.
    And despite the missile strikes on the power grids of Ukraine, the power cuts to the population were STOP in the country. With the return of cold weather, shutdowns will resume. At the expense of Ukraine, it will be warm in Gay Rop, where the energy of Ukrainian generation will rush.
    Strikes on transformers are clearly weak for a SOVIET electrical network designed to work during a NUCLEAR bombardment.
    You need to hit the control centers. But the 5-column in the Kremlin prevents this in every possible way.
    Therefore, SVO lasts almost a year. One hope that the instinct of self-preservation will force GDP in 2023 to wage war correctly
  3. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 4 January 2023 10: 26
    Europe avoided energy collapse at the beginning of the year,

    but she is unlikely to avoid a nuclear apocalypse by continuing to support Ukraine.
  4. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 4 January 2023 10: 52
    The fact that Geyropa will not be bent immediately - no one doubted. The question is in the long term .. For the cornerstone of its prosperity is access precisely to cheap energy sources from Russia .. The West is already losing economic competition with Asia in all respects, even in the most favorable conditions for itself, and even if it has to pay equal, not to mention more, the price for energy and fuel .. I think that in a dozen years it will be possible to forget about most of the Geyropa industry .. Southeast Asia will tear it like Tuzik a heating pad ..
  5. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 4 January 2023 11: 52
    Many experts predicted a difficult time at the beginning of the year, but now it is obvious that everything happened exactly the opposite.

    Unlike them, sane "non-specialists" were not mistaken in their forecast comments ...
  6. Mikhail Dadeko Offline Mikhail Dadeko
    Mikhail Dadeko (Mikhail Dadeko) 4 January 2023 14: 07
    No one wanted the death of the EU, but it would not hurt to "learn" about it properly! They have more to come!
  7. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 4 January 2023 16: 20
    The EU has solved the energy problem, but has had a rise in prices, which will shift on the shoulders of the rest of the world.
    The danger comes from the prospect of transferring payment for energy resources to the renminbi, which is supported by Brix, the Russian Federation and so is calculated with the PRC in the national signs, Venezuela, Iran and the Union of Arab Oil-Producing State Entities, which, as it were, agreed at a December meeting with Comrade Xi.
  8. Fizik13 Offline Fizik13
    Fizik13 (Alexey) 4 January 2023 18: 50
    There will be more roofing felts!
    There will still be roofing felts oh-oh!
  9. zloybond Offline zloybond
    zloybond (steppenwolf) 5 January 2023 13: 08
    Someone heard something or saw the Old, that Russia has exposed the West penalties for the illegal use of its money???? We have 300 lards withheld ... and we all mumble. The patient gentlemen, against whom a war without rules is being waged, are all trying to make themselves the right patients.