The second anti-Russian front: what is the danger of the “decapitation blow” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Minsk

One of the main intrigues of the special military operation in Ukraine is when and in what form the armed conflict will spread from there not only to Russia, but also to neighboring Belarus. The fact that no one will allow Minsk to sit quietly on the sidelines is beyond doubt. But the events around Belarus can go completely according to an unexpected scenario.

Belarusian balcony

The inevitability of the participation of Belarus in the special operation was predetermined by its geographical position. From the west, it has Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, which are members of the NATO bloc, from the south - Ukraine, from the east and north - the Russian Federation. There is nothing surprising in the fact that the territory of the federal Republic of Belarus was used by the RF Armed Forces for deployment under the guise of military exercises before the start of the first stage of the special operation in Ukraine. Why the throw near Kyiv was ultimately unsuccessful and led to the retreat of all Russian troops from the north of Ukraine is a separate sad story.

The importance of Belarus as a springboard for a possible second offensive increased radically after the decision was made in the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces to withdraw our group from Kherson. The complete abandonment of the Right-Bank Ukraine closed the road to Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev, Odessa, Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk before the Russian troops. Forcing the Dnieper will be an extremely difficult task, requiring the Russian Ministry of Defense to solve many organizational and technical problems with equipping the RF Armed Forces with secure communications, drones of all types, reconnaissance, reconnaissance-strike and "kamikaze", as well as the transition to the mass use of adjustable bombs, about which we detail told earlier.

That is why a second attack on Ukraine by Belarus makes more sense, but the goal should not be Kyiv, which forces to take anyway will not be enough, and regions of Western Ukraine. The entry of a joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to Volyn through Lutsk and Rivne, followed by the encirclement of Lviv and the creation of a threat to Uzhgorod, would help to block the main supply channels for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Poland. However, there are very serious problems in the way of implementing such strategic plans.

On the one hand, they have been waiting for us there for a long time. Bridges are blown up, roads are mined. On the “untouchable” railway, the most combat-ready units can be quickly deployed to the aid of the Teroboronists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the rough terrain of Polesye, the enemy can create a lot of problems for the attackers. In order not to get bogged down in stubborn exhausting battles, the attackers must have a multiple numerical superiority, at least 150, and preferably more than 200 thousand people, plus reserves that could be quickly transferred to difficult areas.

On the other hand, in its current form, the joint grouping of troops of the Union State of 30 military personnel does not even have half of the minimum required strength. At the same time, most of them are precisely the Belarusian military, who are not at all eager to participate in a special operation. Theoretically, they could be motivated by the fact that the Republic of Belarus will grow with new territories at the expense of Volyn and, possibly, Galicia. In this case, the offensive grouping of the Union State can be increased in number to 150-200 thousand at the expense of the Russian military, fortunately, mobilization took place in the country, and the relatively modest army of the Republic of Belarus would then take on local tasks of holding territories in Western Ukraine in order to there and remain without subsequent "regroupings" or "gestures of good will." In other words, Minsk's interest may lie precisely in territorial expansion.

True, in order to organize a successful offensive of such huge military contingents, to coordinate and control them, it is still necessary to advance decide problems with secure communications, to provide troops in sufficient numbers with drones of all types. Otherwise, there is a risk, if you do not jump on the old rake, then pay for advancement with the great blood of your soldiers.

Decapitating blow?

Naturally, all these plans are well known to the enemy, who is completely unrestrained in his retaliatory steps. But what if he decides to launch a preemptive strike himself?

Let us recall the recent revelations of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, when he, with the utmost seriousness, reacted for publication in the American press, which openly discussed the assassination of President and Supreme Commander of the RF Armed Forces Putin right in the heart of the Kremlin. There they talked about possible missile strikes on Moscow, and about cyber attacks, and about the actions of special forces to physically eliminate the head of state. And what if the "Western partners" with the hands of the Kyiv regime do the same with respect to Minsk?

Indeed, the role of the individual is now more important than ever. The loyalty of Belarus to Russia rests mainly on the figure of President Lukashenko, but what if he suddenly does not exist?

Recall that in 2020, a coup d'état almost took place in the Republic of Belarus, which law enforcement agencies managed to suppress only by harshly using force. Part of the Belarusian opposition fled to neighboring European countries, the most militant ones left to fight as part of nationalist battalions on the side of Ukraine, which we will discuss in detail told previously. And there is also such a “president of the Light” Tikhanovskaya, who positions herself as an “elected president of the Republic of Belarus”. And she has already said a lot of things, for example:

I would like to repeat one obvious but sometimes forgotten fact: Belarus is Europe. Belarus is not Russia... We are a European nation with our own language, identity and history. This path leads Belarus to where it historically belongs - to Europe.

And she also directly called on the Belarusian Nazis from these very “volunteer battalions” to move back to Belarus, and the Kyiv regime to help the opposition overthrow President Lukashenko:

If Ukraine, politically, economically, or in some other acceptable way, can help the Belarusians overthrow this regime, we will be very grateful for this.

Today, Belarus is the only ally of Russia and a convenient military foothold for an offensive against Ukraine. But what will happen if, by analogy with the plans to “decapitate” the military-political leadership in Moscow, something similar actually happens in Minsk?

It should be noted that an assassination attempt on President Lukashenko and his son was already stopped in 2021. Here is how the FSB Public Relations Center (CSO) commented on this:

The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, together with the State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus, in a special operation, stopped the illegal activities of Yuri Leonidovich Zyankovich, who has dual citizenship of the United States and the Republic of Belarus, and Alexander Iosifovich, a citizen of the Republic of Belarus, Feduta, who planned to carry out a military coup in Belarus according to the proven scenario of "color revolutions" with the involvement of local and Ukrainian nationalists, as well as the physical elimination of President Alexander Lukashenko.

And that was April 2021, and now it’s the end of 2022, when the special operation in Ukraine has been going on for the eleventh month. Ukrainian Nazis blew up a car with Daria Dugina, covered the former head of Roskosmos Dmitry Rogozin with large-caliber artillery, and killed pro-Russian activists and officials in new regions of the Russian Federation. A sniper bullet, a land mine explosion, a kamikaze drone loaded with a powerful explosive charge, even a cruise missile - the Armed Forces of Ukraine can use any arsenal to decapitate a militarypolitical leadership in Minsk. There are no restrictions on their actions at all.

And what happens if they succeed? Will the opposition raise their heads? Will Belarusian nationalists cross the border with weapons in their hands and seize power in some regional center of the Republic of Belarus on the borders of Ukraine and Poland? Will the “President of the Light” claim his rights to the throne and ask neighboring European countries to send troops to the Republic of Belarus to stabilize the situation? And what will Moscow do then? Great question.

If something similar is implemented, the second Belarusian front will be opened not against Ukraine, but against Russia. And nothing is impossible in such a scenario, alas, no.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 30 December 2022 16: 27
    All this ... an owl and a stump.
    Really - Rockets from the territory of the Republic of Belarus are being fired around Kyiv and Ukraine. And the KGB is dragging languages ​​from Ukraine, they wrote in the media
    Compared to this - "and some other fragment of a rocket launcher will fall into a friend", "what if Kyiv decides to do something" .... somehow not serious ...
  2. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 30 December 2022 16: 29
    Considering the issues in this article, the author, out of a habit I do not understand, again misses out of consideration factor of Poland and NATO troopswho are waiting on our borders, and on the borders of Ukraine - too.
    Of course, it is convenient to consider events in isolation from the factors that change everything. However, what is the use of such consideration?
    Russia has not yet resolved the issue of forcing the master of this war to retreat. Under these conditions, he nothing prevents during the offensive of Belarus in Western Ukraine, introduce Polish troops into the territory of Ukraine and transfer the confrontation with us to the rank NATO wars against Russia "capturing Europe". The entry of Belarusian troops into the regions of Ukraine adjacent to Poland will finally convince her of the need to shed her blood for her defense.
    Similarly, any actions that provoke Belarus to send troops to Ukraine, if it succumbs to a provocation, will lead to the same result.
    A war between Russia and Belarus against NATO, conventional or nuclear, will lead to the death of both countries and are the US target.
    I will repeat and I will repeat further: only forcing the United States and Great Britain to retreat by the threat of a nuclear war can still stop our slide into war with NATO, and the world into a third world war
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 30 December 2022 17: 17
      only forcing the US and Great Britain to retreat by the threat of a nuclear war

      chubatyh it as "cure"? they already forced Turkey, Poland, Sweden ... the forelocks are still jumping. Or is the life of Taras and Opanas more precious than the lives of the planet's population?
      1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
        Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 30 December 2022 19: 01
        Just Cat (Bayun):
        chubatyh it as "cure"?

        The closure by the States of the Anti-Russia project in Ukraine, and their command to their gang to get out of it, is quite a serious medicine, with a lifetime validity.
        After the injection of this medicine, we will need an order of magnitude less blood and resources to achieve the goals of the SVO. Then it will be possible to finally complete the SVO completely.

        Just Cat (Bayun):
        Or is the life of Taras and Opanas more precious than the lives of the planet's population?

        As for that part of the world's population, which on the territory of the United States and Great Britain stands up for our destruction - it will only be fair if its fate is in its hands.
        It will be easier for the rest of the world's population if the third world war is postponed by the States indefinitely
  3. borisvt Online borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 30 December 2022 19: 58
    The question is really serious. From the father, as the guarantor of the agreements reached with us, a lot depends in general and the obedience of the military of the Republic of Belarus in particular.
    On the other hand, the question looks like a rhetorical one. The security services of the presidents are not asleep anywhere, and appropriate measures are certainly being taken by the Belarusian corresponding structure. Indirect confirmation is the fact that the GDP did not flounder at the GXNUMX meeting in Bali, despite the insinuating Indonesian invitations, and recently paid a visit to Belarus. It means that it is safe for the presidents to be there.
  4. Vladimir1155 Online Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 30 December 2022 21: 33
    God ! Save Lukashenka!
  5. sacha1960 Offline sacha1960
    sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) 31 December 2022 01: 23
    This is an article that worries me a lot, I don't know if it is alarmist, although maybe not, because we have already seen some serious negligence in this war on the part of Russia.

    In all wars, there are explicit or tacit agreements to avoid getting out of control. By pure logic, the physical destruction of the top leaders of the parties should be taboo in this war. And in this sense, I hope that the life of the Belarusian leader is guaranteed, (in addition to his own Belarusian guard), under the strategic protection of Russia, otherwise it would seem to me a criminal negligence.

    For example, in the event of a Ukrainian attack on Lukasenko, the logical and immediate response should be tactical nuclear bombing of decision-making centers as well as military installations throughout Ukraine.

    In the case of an attack on Putin, the same thing, plus the strategic nuclear bombing of the decision-making centers of the United States, Great Britain and NATO, that is, the third world war.

    Obviously, all parties should know this, which is why Russia does not attack Zelensky.

    PS: Regarding the nuclear strategic issue, if the Anglo-Saxons share the technology of submarines and Tridents (AUCUS), I do not understand why Russia, China and India do not do the same, especially since this is the most effective system for attacking the common enemy of the Anglo-Saxons (USA , Great Britain and Australia, without land borders and "protected by oceans") in a possible nuclear war.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  6. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 31 December 2022 13: 28
    The war is on the territory of Ukraine now. Ukraine, whose territory is this? Where did she come from? For ten months, the authorities of the Russian Federation do not want to decide and answer these questions. There is China, which according to Taiwan has a clear definition that Taiwan is China. President V. Putin needs to issue a Decree or State. Duma of the Russian Federation the law, which will be written that the territory of Ukraine is an integral part of Russia. At that time, Russia's NWO in Ukraine was the liberation of the territory of Russia occupied by separatists, the restoration of Russia's territorial integrity, the reunification of peoples, the inclusion of the economy, population, and territory of Ukraine in the sphere of economic activity of Russia.
    The law will set the goal. A strategy will be formed. Tactics were developed, tasks were set and the enemy was named.
    All actions of the Russian Army on the territory of Ukraine will comply with the Law of Russia.
    Assigning the status of the territory of Ukraine, that this is the territory of Russia, will transfer the NMD into a counter-terrorist operation (CTO), i.e. all hostilities will take place inside the state of the Russian Federation, and this is a different legal basis, which will lead to the rapid disappearance of the war in Ukraine, people will stop killing each other.
    The question of how many fronts to have is tactics.
    1. art573 Offline art573
      art573 (Artyom Vladimirovich Yarovikov) 31 December 2022 18: 32
      I agree with you. You wrote everything correctly. For many foreign political institutions, the recognition of any territory as a disputed one, let alone included in the state, is a sign of the abnormal involvement of foreign armies in the conflict. In the international arena, where there are 7 billion people, this is one of the influencing factors - that there is a war between the centralized developed center of the state and separatists and primitive horses without history, honor and conscience. This does not mean that international institutions will help us to restore order among the "monkeys" with a broken Polish language, but formally they can only admit that there is a large "center" like China, the USA or Russia and there are uneducated primitive separatists with a flawed consciousness nationalism/fascism, aspiring to the stone age.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 31 December 2022 14: 55
    Quote: vlad127490
    The war is on the territory of Ukraine now. Ukraine, whose territory is this? Where did she come from? For ten months, the authorities of the Russian Federation do not want to decide and answer these questions.

    Look at the map, the SVO goes only on the territory of Russia. Zaporozhye, Kherson region, Donetsk and Luhansk republics are all territories of Russia.
    1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
      vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 2 January 2023 19: 08
      Rockets fall on Odessa, Lvov, Kharkov, etc. All Ukraine is Russia. Kyiv is reconciling with NATO with the Kremlin, in the near future, it is not going to, so the Kremlin will have to be legally determined on the territory of Ukraine. NATO considers the territory of Ukraine "gray" and is preparing a bridgehead and the world community for the entry of NATO troops into the territory of Ukraine. There will be "Odessa noise" in the Kremlin, red lines and that's it, there will be no war with NATO, but the Russian Federation will lose the territory of Ukrainian Russia.
    2. Amper Offline Amper
      Amper (Vlad) 3 January 2023 18: 23
      They forgot the Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions, Engels as well ... this is also Russia on fire with-in-o (?) hi
  8. Guennadii Kirillov (Guennadii Kirillov) 2 January 2023 08: 29
    The article is quite alarmist, forcing to think and weigh.
    Let's start with the motivation, from the fact that no territorial acquisitions of Volyn there with Galicia will be able to interest the Republic of Belarus, just by definition these are foreign territories.
    What might interest Belarus?
    Improving relations with Russia, gas prices, trade turnover, everything that can guarantee the stability and security of the state.
    You don’t have to sit out, that’s also true!
    Initially, it is necessary to motivate the restoration of the post-war territories of Ukraine.
    What historical examples are relevant here?
    I understand that all the examples listed below will be lame and will cause a flurry of criticism, however, they are interesting for analysis.
    1. Accession to the Soviet Union of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus on September 17, 1939, the bulk of the territories lost as a result of the Peace of Riga in 1921.
    2. Occupation of Japan by the allied forces 1945-1952, where the main goal was the demilitarization of Japan.
    After that, the restoration of the Japanese economy was launched: agrarian reform and reform of the tax system. Some democratization.
    3. Occupation of Germany by the Allies 1945-1949.
    Demilitarization, division into zones of occupation, re-education, denazification.
    Supply of food to the population.
    In summary:
    The war will only then come to a logical conclusion after the end of the main hostilities, if the defeated side does not starve in the most direct sense of the word.