When to expect a Chinese special operation to retake Taiwan

Literally immediately after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the question arose whether China would also start its own NMD in Taiwan, so to speak, under the guise of solving an old territorial problem, which only becomes more acute with time. However, more than 24 months have passed since February 10, but Beijing has not moved to active actions, limiting itself only to military exercises and actions to demonstrate determination. Should we seriously expect a Chinese special operation in Taiwan?

CBO in Chinese

About how a forceful scenario for resolving the territorial problem of the PRC may look like, we told way back in 2019. Based on Ian Easton's The Chinese Threat of Invasion: The Defense of Taiwan and America's Strategy in Asia. In his interpretation, the Chinese NWO may look like this.

At the first stage, the PLA will have to plunge the rebellious province into a state of uncontrollable chaos. To do this, short-range ballistic missile strikes need to destroy airfields, transport hubs and government buildings. Special forces and pre-trained cells of "sleeper agents" will have to organize a real hunt for officials, the military leadership of Taiwan and the local business elite in order to behead Taipei.

At the second stage, the PLA will have to carry out the largest landing in the world, transporting at least a million soldiers to the island. To do this, the Chinese air force will first have to gain complete air supremacy by crushing the defense of Taiwan with air, sea and land-based missiles. For the transport of troops and military equipment The PRC Navy will need to use its entire navy and reserved merchant fleet vessels, which are initially built on dual-use projects. In an ideal scenario, one to two weeks is allotted for taking the island under control.

It sounds pretty reasonable, but Ian Easton himself proceeds from the opinion that the Chinese NWO is still doomed to failure.

Not so easy

The problem is that all such plans have long been known to both Taipei and Washington, and they are ready for them. Such large-scale military preparations by the PLA simply cannot be kept secret, so it will not work to take advantage of the surprise effect. All suspicious persons will be detained by special services, the island will go to martial law, and a curfew will be introduced. Taipei will have time to deploy its army and mobilize reservists.

An additional complication for Beijing, unlike the Kremlin, is that Taiwan is separated from mainland China by a strait and they do not share a common land border. Consequently, the only option left is a landing operation, and this requires powerful naval forces, aviation, and a huge number of amphibious assault vehicles to transport such a large military contingent. The number of convenient beaches where landings can take place is also limited. All approaches to them will be mined, the coast will be guarded by rocket and artillery units, covered by modern air defense systems. What can only a few anti-ship missiles do with accurate target designation, we already got an idea, but what if the Taiwanese launch dozens or hundreds of them?

Capturing a foothold on the coast of the island will cost the PLA a lot of blood, but this is just the beginning. According to the Ukrainian scenario, cities will be turned into fortified areas, and Taiwanese special forces and local defense will operate in the jungle. The desired 1-2 weeks can turn into long months of a real "bloodbath" with corresponding losses for the Chinese army. You can be 100% sure that American military advisers will demand that Taipei continue to use the scorched earth tactics used in Ukraine. The Taiwanese will defend every strong point, every home, slowing down the PLA advance as much as possible, prolonging the conflict, increasing losses on both sides and the degree of destruction.

As a result, Beijing's victory should be pyrrhic: an island razed to the ground, drenched in the blood of Chinese paratroopers and Chinese defenders. At the same time, of course, the entire Taiwanese industry must be destroyed so that the PRC does not get anything of value as a trophy. But on the return of control over Taipei by Beijing, alas, nothing will end. As punishment for "aggression", the collective West will introduce against the PRC economic sanctions, and the combined AUKUS fleet will arrange a naval blockade of the Malacca Strait, which the Celestial Empire receives by sea a significant part of the consumed hydrocarbons and other raw materials. For the power deblockade of the straits, the power of the PLA Navy is not yet enough, which we will discuss in detail told previously. The goal is the economic strangulation of China.

As a matter of fact, the last paragraph hides the answer to the question of when we should really expect a Chinese NWO in Taiwan.

In the coming years, the island will be under an invisible shield provided by Taiwan's semiconductor and microprocessor manufacturing facilities. Taipei is a recognized world leader in this field, and all countries are critically dependent on its products. Without processors, no modern technology simply can work - from smartphones to washing machines. Right now, the world's leading powers are rushing to policies import substitution by establishing the production of semiconductors at home. Taiwanese company TSMC, which accounts for roughly 90% of the world's cutting-edge computer chips supplied to tech giants including Apple and Qualcomm, is opening a new plant in Arizona. TSMC founder Morris Chang commented on the event as follows:

Chips are a very important product. It seems that people have only recently begun to realize this, and as a result, many are jealous of the Taiwanese chip industry.

I not only believe, but I know for sure that the cost of chip production in the US will be at least 55% higher than in Taiwan. But this does not prevent the transfer of some capacities to the United States. The chip manufacturing process we've moved is the most advanced of any company in the US, and it's very important for the US.

Well, you get the idea. This is no longer about income, but about the national security of the United States itself. This means that Washington's mood for a military conflict in Taiwan is serious. China, India, the European Union, South Korea, and Japan are actively engaged in import substitution of semiconductor production. In parallel with this, there is a process of partial withdrawal of Western high-tech industries from China to other countries of Southeast Asia, which we also already told. Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Hewlett-Packard and other technological monsters are engaged in risk diversification, restructuring of production and supply chains.

As you can see, everyone is preparing for a war around Taiwan. China is rapidly building a navy, Western corporations are reducing their critical dependence on the "world workshop", and together they are trying to quickly stop depending on Taiwanese semiconductors. When is it really worth waiting for the Chinese NWO?

Probably, when all interested parties "lay straws" and are ready.
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  1. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) 26 December 2022 11: 47
    Never. China is not so stupid as to destroy for the sake of the territory the economic potential of the island for trillions of dollars ..... and its own funds invested and pledged around the world.
    All of Russia cannot build one production chain of chips ... but here.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 26 December 2022 12: 21
    There have been many similar articles already.
    And the result - China looked at the NWO, looked .... and decided not to force ... Time plays on him ...
  3. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 26 December 2022 12: 26
    China will not dare to launch a military operation against Taiwan. All the same, he is inferior to the United States in military power. 6500 US nuclear weapons against China's 260 nuclear weapons is an overwhelming advantage. Also, China is inferior in aviation and navy. As for Taiwan itself, I don’t think that there is a combat-ready army there. The population of the country is 23 million people against 1,5 billion. China is not serious.
  4. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 26 December 2022 12: 37
    The policy of the PRC is similar to the actions of a boa constrictor, slowly squeezing to swallow. The PRC, unlike the Russian Federation in Ukraine, already has a legal framework for Taiwan.
    In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Law. According to the document, in the event of a threat to the peaceful reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, the PRC government is obliged to resort to force and other necessary methods to preserve its territorial integrity.
    On June 15, 2022, China adopted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) legal framework for non-military military activities. That will allow the PRC army to participate in operations not related to the war.
    BEIJING, Oct. 22, 2022 - Delegates to the XNUMXth Congress of the Communist Party of China approved the introduction of a provision to oppose Taiwan independence to the Charter of the political force.
    There is no Odessa fuss about the issue of Taiwan, the withdrawal of industry from Taiwan indicates that the fate of Taiwan has already been decided, the open question is time.
  5. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 26 December 2022 13: 10
    Never. China is not so stupid as to destroy for the sake of the territory the economic potential of the island for trillions of dollars ..... and its own funds invested and pledged around the world.

    I will support 100%, China will not decide anything militarily - China and the United States are "one field of a berry", one might say a successful symbiosis of two systems, they will never fight directly, ... with respect to Taiwan, China will simply try to wait for the moment when they themselves be asked to go home.
  6. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 26 December 2022 18: 25
  7. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 26 December 2022 18: 40
    perhaps China will not have to carry out an amphibious operation. China can start with an incident (downing of a Chinese UAV in Taiwanese airspace), responding with a strike on an air defense position.

    If the island and the United States show a willingness to escalate, the conflict will escalate step by step, with China offering a political solution at each stage of the escalation.

    At the same time, China will be able to avoid exposing its navy to the distribution of the United States, Japan and Britain, keeping the fleet closer to its coast.

    In the end, China can destroy the air force infrastructure and, as a final argument, the energy infrastructure. Turn off the Taiwan light. Not forgetting to offer a political settlement.

    In such cases, the question will arise for the United States and others - to attack the Chinese fleet where it is or not to attack. To attack the mainland itself or not to attack. How to respond in a military plane to missile strikes on the island?

    In such a conflict, there will be many stages of escalation, at each one there will be an opportunity to stop and agree. If you carry out a full-scale landing, there will be no options at all.
  8. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 27 December 2022 00: 53
    As a classic couch strategist, I, without arguing, can assume that if the main chip is in the production of chips (which I strongly doubt), then this should directly depend on the filling of the budget. However... In Taiwan, there are plenty of industries replenishing the budget and without conditional IT technology. That is, on the chips * the world did not converge like a wedge *. Well, as you see at the beginning, I will assume that there should be no military takeover in principle. And not at all because someone is stronger or weaker, but because Taiwan is doomed to become in the future that stumbling block of a collision not with Taiwan, but with the bloc that the United States organized in this region, an analogue of European NATO. Why would China destroy a completely prosperous country of fellow countrymen?
  9. UAZ 452 Offline UAZ 452
    UAZ 452 (UAZ 452) 31 December 2022 19: 52
    No one will give China the world's main semiconductor factory. And China itself understands this best of all. But for China, Taiwan is also valuable in addition to this incarnation, while for the rest of the world, the island is like a single-industry town, with one single function.
    China, maintaining a constant and rather high degree of tension around Taiwan, contributes to the fact that other players are rapidly diversifying the production of electronic components. When this process is completed, the island will lose much of its value in the eyes of other players, but not in the eyes of China! In addition to the economy of the island, the well-being of the population will be greatly undermined by the loss of exclusivity and monopoly of the main export industry. If by that time the situation in mainland China does not worsen in comparison with today (and this is also possible), the resistance of the islanders to one degree or another of integration will be much weaker.