Rostislav Ishchenko estimated trillion losses in Europe only at the beginning of the crisis


Europe has lost about $1 trillion from the sharp rise in energy prices as a result of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg calculations, and the deepest crisis in decades is just beginning.


In the spring of 2023, the EU countries will have to replenish gas reserves in the absence of blue fuel supplies from the Russian Federation, and this will increase competition for fuel tankers. Even with new opportunities for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to emerge, the market is expected to remain “tight” until 2026, when additional US and Qatar capacity is established.

While European governments have so far helped companies and individuals cushion most of the blow from the energy crisis, the state of emergency could last for years and top $700 billion in direct aid, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. Wherein economics European countries are already in recession, and interest rates continue to rise. Under such conditions, future support for millions of households and businesses looks increasingly elusive.

In 2022, as of November, Germany alone provided 265 billion euros, or 7,5% of GDP, in bailouts. Great Britain for the same period had to fork out for 97 billion (3,5% of GDP), Italy - for 91 billion (5,1% of GDP), France and the Netherlands - for 70 and 45 billion, respectively. The budgetary possibilities of the EU countries have already been exhausted: half of the member states have a debt exceeding the limit set by the bloc of 60% of GDP.

Rostislav Ishchenko, being a Russian political scientist, not an economist, sees the situation from a slightly different angle:

Well, yes, the Germans believed that their economy would last two years. That is, it will gradually fold, and only after a couple of years it will be possible to say goodbye to it. But this is according to German ideas, because what the Germans call the end of the economy, the Ukrainians consider it the beginning. So, if we approach with Ukrainian standards, then in two years it will still be very good in Germany, although for the Germans it is already bad. The Germans believe that during this period it is still possible to carry out the current policies and defeat Russia, compensating for her losses at the expense of her. If they fail, then everything is a disaster, because otherwise they are nothing, in no way and never will compensate. And they are moving very quickly towards this very catastrophe.

For countries like Germany, which rely on affordable energy for auto production and chemicals, high costs mean a loss of competitiveness with the US and China, putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's administration to maintain support for the economy. But it's still unclear how to strike a balance between keeping factories running and heating homes for the foreseeable future without cutting off incentives to invest in renewables, seen as the most sustainable way out of the energy crisis.

  • Photos used: screenshot from Sputnik video in Russian
5 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 23 December 2022 11: 08
    +1
    For a year now there has been talk that Europe will freeze, but no one has yet shown a single frozen European.
    Not a single European country that has provided assistance to Ukraine has refused to continue providing assistance.
    Apparently, no one has yet been scorched and no one has yet had a cold.
  2. Indifferent Offline Indifferent
    Indifferent 23 December 2022 16: 28
    +1
    Winter goes on and will go on in exactly the same way under the cries of freezing Europe. There are still enough funds in Europe to cope with any difficulties. Of course, there are countries like Bulgaria, Romania or Latvia. But this is such a pot-bellied trifle that they will not be written about, even if they begin to get really hungry or they start to freeze in batches to their beds. So Europe will definitely not die this year. To write about this in each of your articles is already a bad tone.
  3. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 23 December 2022 17: 53
    0
    Rostislav Ishchenko estimated trillion losses in Europe only at the beginning of the crisis

    For a long time he does not inspire any confidence with his "forecasts", regularly sitting in a puddle. And what can be expected from the Ukrainian-Russian political scientist troll...
  4. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 23 December 2022 21: 21
    0
    I am absolutely not worried that Western capitalists feel very bad. They can be said to be lucky that they do not buy money, but print it themselves. They do not have such capitalists as in Russia, if they were, they would have collapsed in a week.
  5. Raymond Offline Raymond
    Raymond (Raymond) Today, 09: 22
    0
    Quote: zenion
    I am absolutely not worried that Western capitalists feel very bad. They can be said to be lucky that they do not buy money, but print it themselves. They do not have such capitalists as in Russia, if they were, they would have collapsed in a week.

    But Western capitalists also buy money... and, above all, without printing new banknotes, simply by buying existing ones...
    It is true that in the West the capitalists work differently than in Russia, precisely in order not to go bankrupt in a week.
    Is this a disadvantage for them?