The expediency of switching to a two-year conscription service in Russia was analyzed

December 18 2022 13

On the eve of one of the military commissars near Moscow сообщилthat 2023 will be a transitional period in Russia for conscription service, first for 1,5 years, and then for 2 years. His words were refuted by the higher authorities, but they managed to cause a great public outcry and discussion. Therefore, it became interesting to analyze the feasibility of such a transition.

It should be noted that Russian leaders have repeatedly stated before that nothing of the kind is planned. Therefore, our reasoning should remain purely theoretical.

For example, in 2003, about 720 thousand boys were born in Russia, one part of which could be called up in the fall of 2021, and the other in the spring of 2022. According to the Ministry of Defense, in the first period, 127,5 thousand were recruited and sent to military units, and in the second - 120 thousand. Thus, less than 250 thousand went to the RF Armed Forces to serve on conscription for 12 months. At the same time, a small number of conscripts were of a different age, but their number is at the level of statistical error.

Today, the demographic situation in Russia is not the most prosperous. Replenishing the ranks with conscripts is becoming more and more difficult every year, and this is not a secret. Therefore, in this perspective, the expediency of switching to a two-year (24 months) conscription service looks objective and justified. In addition, a general increase in the number of military personnel will lead to a slight increase in employment among civilians involved in the service of the military, and an increase in state defense orders, which will positively affect military-industrial complex enterprises.

But this concept also has a negative side. In 2021, more than 234 thousand organizations, institutions, enterprises and companies worked in the country. In May 2022, the unemployment rate in Russia fell to a new historical low and reached 3,9% (2,9 million people were classified as unemployed). An increase in the terms of conscription service can lead to the withdrawal (falling out) of a significant amount of the workforce from economics, which in turn will lead to a decrease in demand, a reduction in tax revenues and a decrease in output of goods. Soldiers serve, they are not employed in manufacturing or services, and this will negatively affect Russia's GDP. Therefore, the idea of increasing the service life does not look attractive from this angle.

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Sergei Fonov

+3

18 December 2022 17: 43

The army is generally a costly business, like all state employees, however, whoever does not want to feed their own army will feed someone else's. Now this ancient truth stands before us in full growth.
1. k7k8
  
  +3
  
  18 December 2022 17: 53
  
  Quote: Sergei Fonov
  who does not want to feed his army will feed someone else's
  
  This is exactly what K. Marx had in mind when he called military service a specific form of productive labor.
In passing

-2

18 December 2022 21: 07

If we also consider that in a year a normal soldier for a modern army cannot be trained ...
antibi0tikk

0

19 December 2022 00: 29

When my eldest son was drafted into the army, he approached me, like give me money to get out of the army. I answered him: I will give the same amount of money so that they leave you to serve for two years!
Nothing, served, satisfied! In air defense, on s300, operator. Now the middle one is in training, airborne, in bear lakes, Shchelkovo district.
To serve in the army is the duty of every MAN!
The best lesson in life was the army!
ivan2022

+2

19 December 2022 03: 57

There are pluses, there are minuses. We know it so. And we also know that all this strongly resembles the fable about patching Trishkin's caftan.

There is no most important thing - population growth in peacetime. The data on the census of the population and its national composition for 2021 remained "under the cloth".

Hefty smart speeches about a professional and super-duper-equipped army were again blown away to the ancient: "every man must" ....

Significant money should be invested in the training of a modern full-fledged soldier. Only then will he be useful, and only then will he cease to be cannon fodder, because it’s simply not profitable to foolishly throw good money into the furnace.

And will they provide it? I doubt it, because to solve such problems, again, a whole army of talented organizers and military men is needed.

It is absolutely incomprehensible where everything will come from in a society that is absolutely incapable of nominating the best for chiefs and constantly moans about the stupidity and greed of commanders.
Olgerd Tees

0

19 December 2022 04: 38

"Analysis" - affiget)) In short, and in the "translation from the Kremlin into Russian": there is an option to redistribute the gratuitous "human resource" so that it becomes more convenient for the newly-minted "boyars" to make a profit. The issues of forming an effective and combat-ready army according to the standards of the 21st century to protect the country (not to be confused with personnel for the protection of a particular "boyar good") against this background is a matter of "...some twenty", especially if the efforts of propagandists drive in the "cattle" the necessary myths: about the threat of allegedly "feeding a foreign army" (this is in the presence of SUCH Strategic Missile Forces), about the alleged "difficulty of preparing to master modern weapons" (yeah, just so "unthinkable" for the level of an OPERATOR or ENGINEER that this should be done only for many months - compare with the "civilian" counterparts of the training periods) to get the output ... a maximum of a "semi-finished product".
Which in the 21st century can look spectacular at parades and other window dressings, but in real life, as a "specific form of productive labor", a "conscript" soldier, for any reason, will have a natural ceiling for its "productivity" at the level of the pre-industrial era. Like a slave or a serving peasant militia. And the duration of such "urgent service" cannot fundamentally change anything in this, whether it be at least six months, at least 25 years.
For a higher level, a whole range of conditions is required (material resources, organization of the practice of improving professional skills under the control of special specialists), which seem to be terribly difficult, time-consuming and, moreover, unprofitable to create either "boyars", or their bureaucratic and other "manager servants".
And the equally mythical "army school of life" (which for some reason they are diligently trying to pass off as a kind of mixed from the "light version of the prison" and a camping trip), in reality, life itself gives: family, teachers, social circle and occupation, in combination with a natural stage of bio- and psycho-growing up.
And - in case of indispensable questions: "Did you serve yourself?" - Yes, yes. Urgent, in the then Soviet Army. Aviation Mechanic.
Adm Hts

+1

19 December 2022 19: 52

transition to a two-year (24 months) conscription service looks objective and justified

complete mess ...
even two years will not make a pro ...
especially those who don't need it...
there were a lot of them in SA - they profiled for 2 years - they didn’t learn anything ...
demographics will continue to deteriorate ...
to increase the number of conscripts - you need to take everyone, and not just those who could not be smeared ...
at the level of the law, it is necessary to introduce a ban on any public service of those who have not served their term ...
those. by and large, everyone should serve, except for "legless, armless, headless" ...
but the army needs to be made professional, and not stupidly contractual ...
and a minimum period of 5 years...
1. Vladimir1155
  
  0
  
  19 December 2022 21: 31
  
  Quote from Adm Hts
  to increase the number of conscripts - you need to take everyone, and not just those who could not be smeared ...
  at the level of the law, it is necessary to introduce a ban on any public service of those who have not served their term ...
  those. by and large, everyone should serve, except for "legless, armless, headless" ...
  but the army needs to be made professional, and not stupidly contractual ...
  and a minimum period of 5 years...
  
  I agree, I wanted to write it myself .... I’ll add the army is a mirror of society, demography needs to be corrected and I know how, that is, to radically change the entire information environment, education, reformat the media, in the spirit of "Orthodoxy, diligence and Motherland", Orthodox morality and family values, having many children, a great history as the basis of patriotism, otherwise "you don't even sit down, friends, but we won't find all the soldiers"
  1. Adm Hts
    
    0
    
    20 December 2022 18: 29
    
    change the entire information environment, education, reformat the media
    
    I agree...
    on the account of "religion" is a moot point ...
    because this is a private matter, and the church is separated from the state ...
    ministers of the clergy (not only of Orthodoxy) can contribute in parallel with the state, but not replace it ...
    1. Vladimir1155
      
      0
      
      20 December 2022 18: 53
      
      Quote from Adm Hts
      because this is a private matter, and the church is separated from the state ...
      ministers of the clergy (not only of Orthodoxy) can contribute in parallel with the state, but not replace it ...
      
      I agree that the church and the state should work in parallel but in the same direction, Orthodox morality has been tested by time, but if the school denies this morality and all morality, then it is useless to hope that young people will stop using drugs, drink and fall into childless fornication, and also betray their homeland for a basket cookies and a barrel of jam
      1. Adm Hts
        
        +1
        
        20 December 2022 19: 14
        
        but if the school denies this morality
        
        so this is a question for the state - why does it have such a school ...
        it's the same as with TV, media, cinema, theater, etc.
        have long reached kindergartens - where there are no boys and girls
        it's all done by the state!
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        20 December 2022 19: 32
        
        Quote from Adm Hts
        so this is a question for the state - why does it have such a school ...
        it's the same as with TV, media, cinema, theater, etc.
        have long reached kindergartens - where there are no boys and girls
        it's all done by the state!
        
        Yes, I share your indignation, and I believe that it is necessary to disperse and arrest those in the Ministry of Education in the media who impede the revival of traditional Orthodox morality and plant Western debauchery
Dmitry Volkov

0

23 December 2022 15: 02

Ground Forces 2 years, Fleet and Aerospace Forces -3 years, after a year you can sign a contract, it should be so! I served my homeland for 10 years and neither a pension nor an apartment, it was the 90s, then there was a mess and poverty, and now there is only one business ...