Plunging into darkness: the agony of the energy system of Ukraine and the paralysis of Western air defense

Polish anti-aircraft missile system C-125 Newa SC entered the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The other day, the Fuhrer of the Ukrainian people once again stated that the minimum condition for starting peace negotiations with Russia is the return of control over the territories along the 1991 borders to the Kyiv regime. Unfortunately, Zelensky did not add anything about “living space” - it would have sounded very funny in every sense .

And the point here is not even the parallels between fascist Ukraine and Nazi Germany, to which even the Western media known for their “objectivity” can no longer turn a blind eye. Everything is much more serious: the maniacal readiness of Zelensky and his party lord to continue the “total war” every day brings Ukraine closer to the state of precisely that lifeless (more precisely, unsuitable for modern civilized life) space.

Our armed forces continue to methodically destroy the energy infrastructure of the fascist state. In the next wave of attacks on December 16, the stakes were raised: a significant part of the attacks fell not on distribution networks, but on generating capacities. In particular, for the first time such a landmark object as the Dneproges was hit: missiles hit one of its two engine rooms with hydro generators.

This is already a step beyond the high-voltage line of no return: if with transformers Kyiv can still count on any options for help from the “allies”, at least theoretically, then the West will no longer be able to restore the power plants themselves. It is likely that the next Russian salvo will be mainly on generating capacity, and its success will mean the destruction of Ukrainian energy as such.

In this regard, with a new acuteness, the question arose of strengthening the fascist air defense. Kyiv desperately demands the supply of Western air defense systems in the hope that this "wonder weapon" will somehow turn the tide of the air campaign. I must say, there are big doubts: both in the "miracle" of Western air defense, and in the fact that Zelensky will generally receive the coveted systems.

Extreme strike results

In terms of the number of missiles involved, the attack on December 16, apparently, was not a record one. Ukrainian propaganda claimed "more than 60 missiles", of which "59 were shot down". This spawned a new meme about the "Iranian rubber missile", the sixtieth in a row, which single-handedly hit all targets, bouncing from one to the next, and then jumped back to base.

Nevertheless, in terms of the effect it had on the energy system, the impact again turned out to be a record one. Evidence of this is at least a long, more than a day, inoperability of the Kyiv metro - this has never happened before. It was quite amusing to watch enemy propaganda swaying from side to side: first, panic statements about the defeat of “infrastructural facilities”, then the notorious “59 out of 60 shot down” and, finally, the announcement of an emergency due to energy shortages.

In addition to attacks on generating capacities (apart from the defeat of the Dneproges, it is reliably known about the failure of the Kharkiv CHPP-5 and the possible shutdown of the South Ukrainian NPP), the accumulation of damage from past strikes led to such results. The energy system of Ukraine is becoming more and more like Trishkin's caftan, the number of knocked-out nodes does not allow you to confidently redirect flows.

Enemy propaganda does not leave attempts to define the disease as a feat. A fresh tale from this series: during the air raid, the operators allegedly deliberately “lower the switches” to minimize damage. This is justified by the fact that in this way it is possible to avoid uncontrolled power surges and short circuits with fires. Perhaps, theoretically, this is how it is, but in practice, air raid alerts are usually announced on the ground after the first explosions and the spontaneous “end of the world”. In addition, on December 17, a nationwide alarm was announced, but there were no shutdowns - where there was still something to turn off.

"Capacity maneuvers" in themselves become dangerous (for the end user) business. Increasingly, from the "other side" there are reports that when the current is restored, exorbitant voltages of 300-500 V begin to flow into houses, destroying household appliances that have not yet burned down. machinery. The consequence of overloads are fires: both in apartments and on yard transformers.

Another trap for the “hulks” is “points of invincibility”. It is known about a number of cases of fires in them, which were caused by various factors: from a short circuit to an attempt to make a fire in a de-energized PN.

In general, autonomous sources of electricity do not justify the hopes that the Nazis had placed on them. For individual domestic use, they turned out to be too expensive, in addition, they have already managed to cause a number of fires in residential buildings. For use with industrial, repair and medical equipment, household gasoline generators are too weak, and powerful diesel power plants are not enough for everyone.

The latter has the most direct impact on the course of hostilities, limiting the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to rescue wounded "invaders" and restore damaged or broken combat vehicles. Oxygen stations, blood coolers, welding machines, lifting mechanisms and other devices necessary in the near rear often simply have nothing to connect to: either there is no generator, or there is no fuel for it - and a powerful generator consumes no less than an armored personnel carrier per hour, if not more.

The lack of current and the lack of fuel undermine not only the tactical, but also the operational capabilities of the Kyiv regime - and first of all, we are talking, of course, about the railway. Although the enemy has adapted during temporary shutdowns to haul trains with a few diesel locomotives distributed throughout the network, the scope of “temporality” is expanding wider every time, and the shortage of fuel for locomotives is felt more and more acutely.

Finally, in the course of infrastructural strikes, the anti-aircraft shield of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also suffers: anti-aircraft gunners, forced to respond to attacks on energy facilities, open the positions of their complexes, which are immediately struck by appropriate means. As you know, this tactic was also used by Russian troops in previous waves of bombardments, when radars of Ukrainian air defense systems and fighters launched into the air were destroyed along the way, and on December 16 was no exception: X-31P anti-radar missiles hit 4 radars of S-300 systems, which left firing batteries are half-blind. And this fact makes this fact doubly “pleasant” for the enemy by the fact that the anti-aircraft gunners set themselves up, in fact, just like that - if they managed to shoot down at least something, then in percentage it will hardly be a tenth of the total number of Russian missiles.

Inoculation of Patriotism

The apparent inability of Ukrainian air defense to somehow noticeably weaken Russian strikes (there is no longer any talk of "reflection") makes the Kyiv choir of mourners even louder and more persistently demand the supply of additional anti-aircraft weapons. True, this case is still somehow not glued: even the “125 anti-aircraft guns” promised by British Prime Minister Sunak (whatever is hidden behind this designation) still remain on paper somewhere in London, although a whole month has passed.

However, the main gift that Zelensky would like to receive for the New Year is not some kind of guns, but Patriot air defense systems. On December 14, there were even stories in the foreign press that the first battery was allegedly ready to be sent to Ukraine, but in the following days this information was refuted several times, including by Biden himself.

The reasons why the Nazis (most likely) will not get hold of the Patriot are exactly the same as why they have not yet been handed over and are unlikely to be handed over ATACMS missiles, and the first of them is the limited number of complexes themselves. According to open data, the US Army has 480 launchers available - this is not so much, since this number needs to provide air defense not only for the territory of the States themselves, but also for numerous bases around the world.

The second main reason is the significant risk of leakage of some elements of the complex to Russia as a whole. The honesty of the Ukrainian "allies" is already known to Western curators so well that now the UK is planning to audit the military assistance provided to Kyiv. And the importance of the Patriot to the US military is too great to trust the secrets of the system to yellow-Blakyth warriors.

Doubts about the effectiveness of air defense systems in the hands of the latter also take place. Before our eyes there is the experience of the “successful” use of NASAMS complexes, which have already reliably “knocked down” at least two civilian vehicles in Kyiv. Moreover, it is not clear what exactly led to these incidents: poor calculation skills, the famous Ukrainian tactic of placing air defense systems directly in residential areas, or the “rotten” state of the missiles themselves. The latter, oddly enough, may take place: the system uses standard AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, which have been in service for many years, so the Nazis could well have been thrown off not the freshest stocks.

It is much more realistic to continue deliveries of Soviet-style air defense systems. The advantages are obvious: the presence of some kind of familiarity with these systems, even despite the gradual elimination of experienced anti-aircraft gunners, and the remnants of a repair base. But the disadvantages of this approach are also visible: the limited still unused stocks of Soviet anti-aircraft weapons and their dubious technical condition.

It has already reached the point that the Poles are offering the Ukrainian "brothers" obvious antiques: the S-125 complex in export performance. A photograph of Ukrainian officers against the backdrop of a launcher has been circulating on the web for several days, but it is still unclear whether it has already been posted, or whether it is just a “photo with a landmark” somewhere in Poland.

Much more interesting is the offer of Greece, which has the S-300, Tor and Osa complexes. On December 16, Athens announced its readiness in principle to transfer the complexes as soon as the United States deploys its Patriots in Crete instead. This decision seems to suit everyone - Ukraine receives missiles, the States do not risk anything, but its implementation will take some time.

It’s just that Zelensky doesn’t have much time. The next wave of strikes on the energy system can be expected even before the New Year, and after it, perhaps, there will be nowhere to rush.
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  1. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
    Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 19 December 2022 09: 34
    With an 80% blackout, complete uncontrollable chaos will come, the people will hate like zombies those who have lights on from the windows, and the Ukrainians themselves will devour their elite, including Reykhonarik, with robberies and looting, because cold and hunger are not afraid of machine guns and machine guns.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 21 December 2022 07: 09
      They will definitely not devour their "elite" because they have never had such a thing, they never have and never will. but the neighbors can have children and cats.
      1. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
        Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 24 December 2022 20: 49
        Well, before children and cats, you are a little bent, this will never happen. I wrote the situation before.
  2. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 19 December 2022 11: 03
    And all the blackouts began from the Crimean bridge ....
    That's interesting.
    Are there many people in Kyiv who want to be photographed against the background of a stamp depicting an explosion on the Crimean bridge?
  3. anti-aircraft gunner 19 December 2022 12: 53
    It's all too bravura. Good for propaganda. In reality, this is far from being the case. Air defense is available, factories are working, troops are moving. There are no insurmountable obstacles to the functioning of the military machine.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 19 December 2022 22: 33
      (Vyacheslav) Obstacles, the further, the more. The West already sees the end of Ukrainian systemic statehood with the latest power outages coming soon. Thousands of generators will not save, because the state system is collapsing - from financial, managerial, informational, to housing and household. No wonder V. Klitschko is looking for where to take millions of Kyivans, but there is nowhere for everyone. The troops will no longer be sure of victory and continuation of actions, with the exception of some of the unfinished Ukronazis. Strategically, Russia has already won, it remains to put the finishing touches on what has been started.
      1. anti-aircraft gunner 20 December 2022 09: 16
        Sounds too optimistic for me, an old skeptic, to believe it)
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 19 December 2022 16: 00
    brings Ukraine closer to the state of precisely that lifeless (more precisely, unsuitable for modern civilized life) space.

    These are Russian lands. And Western Ukraine, Putin saves for Poland!

    that this “wonder weapon” would somehow turn the tide of the air campaign.

    And then Ostap suffered .... Yes, our generals cannot cope with the current air defense - aviation is laid up. Only Caliber saves. And if you find out how much our Air Force has already lost the SU-34, then shut up about the air defense of Ukraine for a long time. Unfortunately, all NATO weapons work decently.

    Before our eyes there is the experience of the "successful" use of NASAMS complexes,

    They would be ashamed to find fault with these complexes. We are still unable to suppress air strikes on Donetsk and the Zaporizhzhya NPP.
    1. rus73 Offline rus73
      rus73 (rus qup) 20 December 2022 00: 16
      What side of the air defense is able to prevent the shelling of the ZAS and Dontsk if the artillery finishes there?
  5. Sergei N Offline Sergei N
    Sergei N (Sergey N) 20 December 2022 00: 37
    It is necessary to hit the generating capacities. We need to bomb Hohlandia into the Stone Age! To have no water, no light, no gas!
  6. radvas Offline radvas
    radvas (Igor) 20 December 2022 03: 25
    Yes, I had to do it all at once. A year of surgery is coming soon, but Hochlandia lives and does not suffer much. Will there be a Patriotic War for four years again?
  7. anti-aircraft gunner 20 December 2022 09: 14
    Quote: Peace Peace.
    people like zombies will hate those

    who bombs. The people of Ukraine are zombified, lazy and cowardly. No one will go anywhere to sweep away. Like a bull stupidly puts his neck under the yoke and walks in circles. That is, to rot in the trenches and starve and freeze in the huts.
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
    Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 20 December 2022 14: 26
    I don’t observe agony, and after the blows there is no light for some time, but they quickly restore it. Air defense, for example, Odessa constantly increases the effectiveness of destruction, the last martyrs are all shot down, lionfish from the sea are also practically 100% affected and are forced to bypass the air defense zone of Odessa if the target is somewhere in the depths of Ukraine.
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 25 December 2022 18: 49
      How wrong you write and in Ukraine they do absolutely everything wrong. In most large cities, where there are plants and factories, the entire central is held underground and it is impossible to break it. Only in cities where there is nothing important, everything is stretched on poles, and if high-voltage wires are then it is simply impossible to break it with shells and bombs. Do people really not know and are not aware of how electricity is wired, even in plain sight. Does lying bring joy? Everything is like in the days of Goebbels.
  10. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 21 December 2022 01: 42
    I love watching the battles of propaganda consumers. It seems that they don’t study statistics in principle. And give everyone a lightning-fast complete victory.
    PS: There is no more air defense in the Russian (Soviet) sense in Ukraine. The merit in this is greater than themselves. it remains and sometimes even works. Ze, demanding Western air defense systems, at the same time thinks in the category of "Soviet" air defense. And to build air defense according to the Soviet standard, NATO will have to give up all the surplus, plus peel off its own air defense like sticky. Naturally, no one in their right mind will do this. There will be deliveries, but according to the residual principle, and various junk that is not very much in demand. Everything new, tanks, aircraft, etc., will appear no earlier than NATO admits itself to be an official participant in the conflict. De facto this happened at the end of May, when the West realized that Ukraine had leaked the war.
    1. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
      Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 21 December 2022 15: 07
      And the entire territory does not need to be closed, I think by the end of the 23rd year, the missile strikes of the Russian Federation will not be so painful for Kyiv, the problem is solved.
      1. shinobi Offline shinobi
        shinobi (Yuri) 22 December 2022 14: 35
        The anecdote is that Western-made complexes are not able to intercept massive attacks of the KR. Not because they are bad, but because at the time of their creation (70-80s) they were developed for other purposes, speeds and tasks. The USSR had a sea-based KR and aviation strategic. NATO simply did not need to develop this direction. Therefore, when faced with real missile strikes, their air defense systems show extremely low performance. They simply do not have an urgent addition to large systems, such as our Pantsir and others like it. In the next 5-8 years will not appear. Actually, NATO (the United States in general) has no and never had air defense in our understanding. Your forecast for 23g is very optimistic. Pay attention to the tactics of strikes by our anti-ship missiles. Three waves in one strike are considered the standard. tricks and in small numbers. Wave 1, 2 to 50, strike at defense means and target. Wave 50 with a small time gap, finishing off. This is the standard of air strikes from the moment they are launched None of this. Our missiles simply fly in without any problems and nothing is able to intercept them. Those air defense systems that exist or will appear in the near future at 3 pose a danger to aviation, but this is another separate issue.
        1. Nelton Offline Nelton
          Nelton (Oleg) 22 December 2022 17: 39
          Quote: shinobi
          Western-made complexes are not able to intercept massive attacks of the Kyrgyz Republic

          Yes, draws are not able, especially if the launch is from a short distance that cheap products can fly to.
          Even Israel, for which missile defense is a matter of life and death of citizens, misses ~ 20% of missiles, while downed missiles are much cheaper than used anti-missiles.

          So the question is how to protect the regions of the Russian Federation, if (rather when) Ukraine starts producing cheap missiles / UAVs, which it will use without regard to US permission.
          It is clear that now it is necessary to evacuate 20 km of the frontline zone, and children - and 100 km.
          close schools and kindergartens.
          100 km is not the limit at all, but at these distances it is already possible to detect and shoot down cheap missiles - with cheap means. But the same need to organize all of this.
          1. shinobi Offline shinobi
            shinobi (Yuri) 22 December 2022 22: 16
            There is a method, very simple, periodically used in the NWO. A carpet strike with increased power ammunition. For now, it is used only in the zone of direct contact. Why is this still not done? Because it is not accepted according to the rules of conducting a proper war. The Russian Empire-USSR-Russia has always strictly observed this rule. Unlike Western countries. Personally, this infuriates me. rid the world of VM. Send Soros to his ancestors, etc. Yes, a lot of things could have been avoided. In this regard, the words "Cadres decide everything" of the great leader and "There is no person, there is no problem" of his closest associate are more relevant than ever