The future of not only Russia, but also Belarus is put on the Ukrainian card


One of the main intrigues of the outgoing 2022 is whether Belarus will enter into a special operation in Ukraine in an active form or not. There is no doubt that neither the official Minsk nor the vast majority of ordinary citizens of the Republic of Belarus really want this. However, one should be aware that the further fate of not only Russia, but also its only ally, Belarus, is at stake on the Ukrainian card.


Why Russia in the NWO Belarus


The strategic importance of Belarus for the Northern Military District can hardly be overestimated. This country borders on the north with as many as five regions of the former Independent. It was from its territory in February 2022 that an attempt was made to attack Kyiv, the sad experience of which we reasoned literally the day before. After the voluntary withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, the importance of Belarus as a springboard for a possible exit to the Right Bank of Ukraine from the north increased radically.

An amphibious assault near Odessa by the available forces of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation with active opposition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine without unacceptable losses is almost impossible. By land to Nikolaev and Kryvyi Rih, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, located on the Right Bank, now you can’t just get there, because forcing the Dnieper under enemy fire will pose a mortal threat. And Zaporozhye and Kherson, the administrative centers of the two new Russian regions, will still have to be recaptured sometime. There remains the option with Belarus, from where you can go to the Right Bank of the Dnieper, but from there to Odessa the path is long.

In order to pass through the whole of Ukraine from North to South, liberating Zaporozhye and Kherson, Russia will have to make a huge effort, completely rebuilding its army literally on the go. The entry of the RF Armed Forces into Western Ukraine, and then into the Black Sea region, would make it possible to cut off the supply routes for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with NATO weapons and ammunition, gradually nullifying the combat effectiveness of the enemy.

In addition to creating a huge strike force and providing it with everything necessary, it is necessary to decide in advance what is supposed to be done with the territories already occupied. This is necessary so that there is no subsequent temptation to abandon them as part of some kind of “goodwill gesture”. For this, the hand of a strong business executive is needed, who will not give away "Kerma volosts" left and right.

Why the NWO of Belarus


This is the most interesting question. In fact, Minsk, no less, and even more than Moscow, should be interested in the elimination of the Kyiv regime, and here's why.

The fact is that Belarus is the next target for liquidation after the Russian Federation. In 2020, it miraculously passed the Ukrainian scenario, when President Lukashenko decided on a harsh suppression of anti-government protests. What fate was prepared for her in the future can be understood from the statement of one of the leaders of the failed Belomaidan, ex-restaurateur Vadim Prokopyev. At the New Belarus forum, which, of course, takes place in Vilnius, this Belarusian opposition leader honestly told everything himself:

We have been at war since 2020, since the last hopes for a velvet Belarusian revolution disappeared. We are at war not with Lukashenka, but with the Russian Empire, with cynical, vile and indecently rich people in the Kremlin. Lukashenka, hated by us, is a false goal. This is just a person convenient for the Kremlin.
Thanks to his lowest moral qualities, he is the best fit for the role of Gauleiter of Moscow in 6 regions of the Western Autonomous Okrug than the Kremlin considers us. The barbarian empire is waging war not with Ukraine, but with the entire civilized world.

Well, you yourself understood everything. If such Prokopiev and his like-minded people come to power, Belarus will become Ukraine No. 2 for Russia, and the new SVO of the RF Ministry of Defense will subsequently have to be carried out in Belarus. Unfortunately, the probability of such a scenario is very far from zero, and the decisive role in the demolition of the regime of President Lukashenko, objectionable to the collective West, can be played by Ukraine, and also, under certain circumstances, neighboring Poland.

Let us again give the floor to Mr. Prokopiev, who himself told everything:

Belarusians had a chance in 2020. Our suppressed Europeanism spilled out, and the enemy was confused. We had two weeks to demolish the collective farm junta and sit down at the negotiating table with a confused Moscow. We missed this chance. Time has passed, there are no good options left. Now only war, only hardcore.

Can such a war be won? No - in case Ukraine loses. But the beauty is that Ukraine is not going to lose. This is the main good news for Belarusians. We are ready to help Ukraine, because we have no other chance for our statehood.

Ukraine has the full moral right to attack after the Belarusian aggression. Battle-hardened ZSU will not even notice the resistance of Lukashenko's Belarusian army. This will be the scenario that Putin dreamed about Kyiv. Minsk will be taken in three days, if not one. At the forefront of such an army could be the Belarusians, who are already defending Ukraine.

Yes, Belarus participates in the NMD in Ukraine, even if it does not send its soldiers there, which President Lukashenko personally acknowledged. From its territory in February 2022, Russian troops went to Kyiv. From Belarus, rocket attacks are being carried out on targets in Ukraine. Near Brest, a joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus has been created and is gradually being strengthened. These are facts that cannot be denied. No one will forget or forgive official Minsk participation in the special operation in Ukraine, no matter what the Belarusians themselves think about it. The Ukrainian Nazis will also definitely take them up when the time comes.

And that time may come much sooner than you think. It should be noted that neighboring Poland has planned large-scale military exercises for March 2023, which will involve over 200 thousand military personnel, even more than today is officially part of its Armed Forces. On the border with Belarus and the Russian Kaliningrad region, Warsaw creates new units and formations. The interest of the Poles in the Eastern Kresy is no longer even hidden. In parallel with this, a joint Russian-Belarusian group of troops was formed near Brest, which supposedly should prevent such a scenario. At the same time, Kyiv itself has planned another wave of mobilization and is demanding ever more powerful offensive weapons from the collective West.

This is a gun that, according to the laws of the genre, must shoot. And it might blow up very soon.

For example, Kyiv itself can provoke Minsk to send troops if, say, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire at the positions of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the border area with casualties among the Belarusian military. It would seem, why should Ukraine open a second front in the North that is disadvantageous to it? It's like looking. So far, the joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus is insufficient to solve some strategic tasks, and its creation looks more like an imitation of the threat to Volyn and Galicia. However, a harsh provocation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can simply force Minsk and Moscow to send troops to Western Ukraine. And then everything will depend on the intentions of the enemy.

So, Kyiv itself can turn to Warsaw for help in protecting its western regions, and then Poland will send its troops to Galicia and Volhynia at the invitation of the legitimate authorities of the country. As we know, by March 2023, the grouping of the Polish army should exceed the number of 200 troops. Together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, she will be able to defeat the seriously inferior joint Belarusian-Russian grouping, if Warsaw decides to fight for real. In such a negative scenario, a "regrouping" from Volyn back to the territory of Belarus is almost inevitable, and after that anything is possible.

Firstly, the Polish army will be in the Eastern Kresy on a legal basis at the request of Zelensky and will not leave from there under the plausible pretext of the need to protect them. Secondly, having inflicted a defeat on the allied forces in Western Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can move on already through the territory of Belarus. As Mr. Prokopyev honestly said, Belarusian nationalist militants will be in the forefront, who can seize some administrative center, hang out white-red-white banners and call on the board of "president Sveta" Tikhanovskaya. And there is a non-zero probability that the Eastern European neighbors can support the claims of this madam to power by military force. If the joint grouping is broken up in Volyn, and the Russian army is tightly occupied in the East of Ukraine, this all looks quite realistic. Other options are also possible.

What conclusions can we draw?

first - The Kyiv regime poses a threat not only to Russia, but also to Belarus. They will definitely come for her when the time comes. Moreover, Belarus is even in a more vulnerable position, no matter what the KGB officers of the Republic of Belarus write in the comments, mimicking angry Belarusians.

Second – the point of bifurcation in the armed conflict in Ukraine is its western regions, where the conflicting interests of many players converge. Either they will be controlled by the tandem of Russia and Belarus, or Eastern European member countries of the NATO bloc will come there.

The third - imitation of readiness to send allied troops to Volhynia, when the enemy is really preparing for this, is a strategic mistake, since the initiative is given to him. The entry of Polish troops into the Eastern Kresy will significantly worsen the position of both Russia in Ukraine and neighboring Belarus. One should either recognize the unwillingness to resist this and put up with the consequences, or seriously prepare for a possible clash with the army of a member country of the NATO bloc. Then the size of the joint grouping should be appropriate, and it is necessary to be ready to work ahead of the curve, going to Volhynia with a subsequent rapid movement towards Lvov.

Yes, all this is very adventurous, but there are no good options left after the withdrawal of troops from the Right Bank. If Moscow and Minsk want to avoid a strategic defeat, they should be ready to fight in Western Ukraine, for real. And you should think in advance what to do with the occupied territories. In the current realities, the transition of Volhynia and, possibly, Galicia under the care of Belarus seems to be the most appropriate. To restore order there, a tough hand of a strong business executive is needed, which President Lukashenka could well handle.
21 comment
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 18 December 2022 12: 04
    +3
    I agree with the author that the direct entry of Belarus into the WZO is exactly what the Kyiv regime needs, and probably also Poland, but is not necessary for Russia. Another thing is the logistics and other support for Russian troops, the supply and provision of airfields. I'm not sure that Belarus is now providing such services in full as a military ally. While Old Man clearly believes that you can sit out clean, leaving Putin to take the hit
    1. The comment was deleted.
  2. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 18 December 2022 12: 08
    +2
    As the saying goes: "measure seven grooves, cut once." Seven times in three decades, our "dear Russians" have made their choice at all levels, including the highest.
    And finished with the "map" ....
    True, it is a pity for Belarusians .... dad is not omnipotent.
  3. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 18 December 2022 12: 30
    +4
    Again - twenty-five. The author again (now under a different sauce) is trying to push the idea of ​​​​Minsk's direct participation in the war in Ukraine into the masses. They say that it is more necessary not for Moscow, but for Minsk.
    1. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 18 December 2022 14: 04
      +1
      Yes, he does not care about Belarus, but he is pushing the same idea of ​​​​invading western Ukraine. Because this is the only chance to directly push the Russian Federation and the NATO bloc. Poland is rocking to "pick up its own" - and, voila! All prerequisites have been created.
      The author systematically pushes through the thought: "You got involved in the third world war, you are doomed, no one will let you stop in Ukraine!" In any case, the author does not want such a stop.
      As for the chances for the direct participation of Belarus in the NWO, most likely this will happen no earlier than amendments are made to the constitution of the Republic of Belarus.
      If this happens involuntarily, as a result of aggression on the part of Ukraine, then the sense of such participation can be expected only after a decent time - about four months.
      Approximately by the beginning of June next year, if we take the end of January as a start.
  4. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
    Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 18 December 2022 13: 01
    +2
    Mr. Marzhetsky draws all strategic arrows and delivers smashing blows)) There will be none of this, for such strategies a millionth group is needed, and not mobs, but angry and shelled ones, ready to gnaw the enemy with their teeth if the cartridges are over. Republicans and BS, the only possible scenario is how to get out of this for both the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan.
  5. DO Offline DO
    DO (Dmitriy) 18 December 2022 14: 18
    -1
    Yes, the author is absolutely right.
    The only thing I would like to add:
    1)
    In addition to creating a huge strike force and providing it with everything necessary, it is necessary to decide in advance what is supposed to be done with the territories already occupied. This is necessary so that there is no subsequent temptation to abandon them as part of some kind of “goodwill gesture”. For this, the hand of a strong business executive is needed, who will not give away "Kerma volosts" left and right.

    The fact is that the Belarusians, led by Lukashenka, being in their right mind, will never decide to directly participate in the NVO until they receive proof from the Russian side that they will not become a victim of another "goodwill gesture." And such evidence can only be the return of the RF Armed Forces to the right bank of the Dnieper, in order to liberate its strip of reasonable width, and put pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will greatly help the allied Belarusian-Russian grouping (under the command of the commander-in-chief of Belarus Lukashenko; the CSTO flag is not excluded) accelerated occupy Western Ukraine.
    2) The population of Western Ukraine must be previously announced by the authorities of Belarus and Russia that the purpose of the strike of the allied Belarusian-Russian military group from Belarus to Odessa is to annex the liberated regions to Belarus.
    3) The liberation of the border south-western regions of Western Ukraine from the hypothetical intervention of neighbors is the goal of a possible second stage of the operation of annexing Western Ukraine to Belarus.
  6. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 18 December 2022 14: 18
    +2
    Another nonsense!
  7. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 18 December 2022 14: 20
    -1
    Yes, the situation is developing, and the author rightly assumes a more active participation of the Republic of Belarus in future operations that will follow, there can be no doubt about this, sadly. Sergey is also right in his bold assumption that

    If Moscow and Minsk want to avoid a strategic defeat, they should be ready to fight in Western Ukraine, for real. And you should think in advance what to do with the occupied territories. In the current realities, the transition of Volhynia and, possibly, Galicia under the care of Belarus seems to be the most appropriate

    It is clear that due to the semantic limitation of the size, the article does not allow to develop the concept of "really". I dare to suggest that due to the fact that Poland is involved in the conflict much deeper than Belarus, participating both with its weapons and its military, Moscow and Minsk will simply have to raise the stakes in order not to lose. The fact is that:
    1. conducting military operations in the same way, taking into account NATO forces, one cannot count on success;
    2. the parties calculated the western border operation with cutting off the fallow land from Poland and Romania a long time ago;
    3. a protracted conflict, in theory, is not needed, this is a nasty option for any sane person;
    4. Attacks on infrastructure and other proposed escalation will not lead to a decisive turning point, but will only give an additional reason to invite foreign troops to enter and "save the remnants of the population."
    The conclusion, in my opinion, is obvious: it’s time for Rzhechi Commonwealth not just to get nervous about the overturning of the tractor next to the funnel from an unknown-from-who-arrived hotel, but to cope with the destruction at the Rzeszow airfield, along with the early morning, as usual, statement by the leadership of our country, that the next strikes will be on the control posts of this NATO almshouse, starting with the pentagon in Arlington, Virginia.
    Yes, and in view of everything that the current government has done in the former Ukraine, it would be good to combine the aforementioned event with the transformation of the bunker of the organized crime group 95th quarter into a funnel, or wherever else Zelya will be located.
  8. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 18 December 2022 16: 20
    +1
    Why will Belarusians fight Ukraine? For the well-being of Russian capitalists, oligarchs? In the Republic of Belarus, people's power, socialism, and in the Russian Federation, anti-people power, capitalism. Belarus will not be at war with Ukraine.
  9. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 18 December 2022 20: 46
    -2
    They surrendered Russia 30 years ago, and now to win everything back? Well, idiotic. The Russian Empire was also surrendered. Elite is always corrupt!
  10. The comment was deleted.
  11. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 December 2022 23: 58
    0
    What the media, the Oligarchs and the Kremlin don’t want from the Old Man .... Doesn’t allow everything to be “optimized”

    And He still hasn’t even recognized Crimea, he keeps away from other people’s wishes ...
  12. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 19 December 2022 01: 12
    +3
    in Russia, as it were, there was an urgent need to clear the state structures of thieves, drinkers, nepotism and other elements who occupy their positions solely for personal enrichment. Because of this, the military-industrial complex chews up huge sums and gives out belching from strength, supplying the army, R&D efficiency and further down the list, all this is a mockery of our enemies (with rare exceptions). All this is the way it is only because of the frames.

    But how can a system fight itself? No way. Yes, society can be indignant, in a telegram here and there, maybe someone will slightly change something, but all this will not save the situation. The effectiveness of the Russian state is a real threat to the future of Russia, especially in the context of the NWO.

    So maybe it's time for a special approach. Something like superintendents, who will have unlimited powers, will be able to open the door with the foot of any ministry, go to any general (including the FSB), any governor, anyone in general, in order to investigate cuts, unsuitability, theft and other sabotage.

    Such a person, a specialist in his field (for example, developments for the Navy), will be able to immediately receive any information, will be able to remove any position at his own discretion (including the highest posts), will be able to personally confiscate any property without trial (and spend it on his team ), will be able to put in a pre-trial detention center without trial for 3 years any person on the territory of the Russian Federation.

    To create 50 such "teams", each of which will work in its own direction, eliminating the most acute problems and, most importantly, clearing state structures of garbage, replacing it with specialists at their discretion.

    Yes, 50 will not be able to plow the entire corruption iceberg of the Russian Federation. But they will be able to create the right atmosphere in the country. And somewhere to change something. They should not be assigned to existing ministries and services, they should not rely on the prosecutor's office - they should be outside the system and have powers beyond the existing laws of the Russian Federation.

    Whatever they are attributed to the president, you can pass through the thought of the relevant law, which will create these positions. They will be born by a thought, as if with the approval and submission of everyone, but no one in particular.

    No general, no one at all, will be able, relying on his power structure, to try to refuse the demands (for example, to provide documents, a search, etc.) of these special agents, not to allow himself to be imprisoned, not to allow their property to be taken away. No calls can help. Everyone will know - if this person gets to the bottom of you, you are a khan, you have become an outcast and you should be shunned. And if you know a lot about common affairs, then maybe you should be flunked faster than you can talk. This is how the atmosphere in the state apparatus of the Russian Federation should be.

    The biggest danger is that even at the stage of appointing these people, completely different people who are required will be selected, brakes and restrictions will be built in, and everything will be more of a docoration than a real tool. What is needed here is a will that can create this instrument of purification of at least everything related to the military-industrial complex, the NWO, the Armed Forces.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. DO Offline DO
      DO (Dmitriy) 19 December 2022 05: 30
      0
      Siegfried, oprichnina? But the oprichnina must rely on the supreme power, and be its instrument.
      The Duma as the center of the oprichnina is the path to civil war, for each of the Duma leaders will pull the blanket over himself.
      In Russia, and at turning points in history and in any other country in the world, unity of command has always triumphed.
  13. rish Offline rish
    rish (Rish) 19 December 2022 03: 28
    -1
    The Belarusian army, like everything else there, in words and papers. Sasha 3% needs to look at housing in Rostov. Unlike us, there is blatant poverty or the Belarusians who are plowing on duty in Togliatti are lying
  14. The comment was deleted.
  15. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 19 December 2022 04: 04
    -2
    The author has a good intuition, it is impossible not to agree with him. Most commentators here seem to have no international experience in politics. The Russian leadership is naive. No one will ever give anything for nothing. What shines for Belarusians from the Russian bridgehead on their territory? Hope for sovereignty. Can Russia guarantee it? Who knows? After the treacherous surrender of the newly conquered regions, formally the territories of the Russian Federation, who can trust the Kremlin? What if he gives up again? Lukashenka is a tough guy, but not a fool at all.
    1. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
      ivan2022 (ivan2022) 24 December 2022 09: 58
      0
      Quote: Watching
      Most commentators here seem to have no international experience in politics. The Russian leadership is naive. No one will ever give anything...

      I congratulate you on the fact that at least you have experience.

      If we knew the true size of personal fortunes, no one would say a word about "naivety" .....

      You are very naive if you think that naive people can get to the level of the top positions in the bank of scorpions, called "corridors of power".
  16. Shuev Offline Shuev
    Shuev 19 December 2022 04: 06
    0
    The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus has died. On the eve of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry announced an official meeting with the diplomatic representative The Vatican. The topics of the conversation were 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Belarus and Holy See.


    He was appointed the new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, who previously held the post of First Deputy Head of the Department, Permanent Representative, Ambassador to vatican and at Order of Malta
  17. Constantine N Online Constantine N
    Constantine N (Constantin N) 19 December 2022 07: 14
    0
    I think the West has a large reserve of opportunities to strengthen the army of Ukraine.
  18. trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 19 December 2022 08: 34
    0
    who will not give away "keРmski volosts ”to the left and to the right.

  19. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 19 December 2022 16: 20
    -1
    In fact, Belarus is written with an "a" and with one "s" ......
  20. sacha1960 Offline sacha1960
    sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) 26 December 2022 15: 55
    -1
    The problem is that Lukashenka is big, like Russia, and the leader of Russia is small, like Belarus (or better, like Luxembourg), if they changed the throne, everything would get better very quickly.

    This problem of weak Russian leadership cannot be solved by using Belarus in a direct war with Ukraine because that would be a perfect excuse (casus belli) for Poland and NATO and a potential disaster for Russia as well as for Belarus itself.

    Russia could indeed open another front in northeastern Ukraine (no one is stopping it), but it would need 300 more soldiers to do so.

    But this requires a leader with character and determined to win the war (to conquer the east of the Dnieper including Kharkov, destroying all the bridges from north to south as you move overland. Completely forgetting about the west of Ukraine and also about Kyiv).

    And if, in addition, there is constant talk about negotiations after the “regroupings” of recent months, then this is terrible for the morale of the fighters and gives us another disturbing sign of the Russian leadership.

    Thus, we are in a vicious circle that is difficult to break.

    PS:

    - As in the football league, if Russia does not win matches in the coming weeks, it may be necessary to change the coach before the category is lost.

    - If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be the same as in the Argentina-Malvina-Great Britain war, the end of United Russia and the current leadership.