A possible new attempt to attack Kyiv is almost certainly doomed to failure.

A possible new attempt to attack Kyiv is almost certainly doomed to failure.

One of the most interesting topics of recent times is the possibility of a second offensive by the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine from Belarus. How can this attempt number two end?


The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny told The Economist that the Russian General Staff is probably preparing a new offensive against Ukraine from the North:

The Russians are preparing about 200 fresh soldiers. I have no doubt that they will have another try in Kyiv.

According to the Ukrainian commander, the second attempt may take place as early as February. At the same time, Zaluzhny urged not to underestimate the Russian reservists mobilized in the RF Armed Forces after September 21:

They may not be as well equipped, but they still present a problem for us.

How realistic is all this, or is the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply terrifying the “Western partners” so that they increase the volume of militarytechnical and financial assistance to Kyiv? Let's figure it out.

First of all, it is necessary to decide what kind of 200-strong grouping of the RF Armed Forces it is, which could attack the Ukrainian capital from the territory of Belarus. Indeed, Russian troops are now present in Belarus, but not on their own, but as part of a joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus along the lines of the Union State. Their number is very small: according to President Lukashenko, there are no more than 9 thousand of our soldiers there, and the rest are Belarusian military. At the same time, this joint grouping is located in Western Belarus, near Brest, where it poses a threat of an attack on Volyn.

In other words, so far there is no Russian 200-strong grouping aimed at Kyiv from the territory of Belarus. However, thanks to the partial mobilization carried out, it is possible to put it together within a few months. According to President Putin, less than half of the more than 300 mobilized reservists are actually at the front, and the rest are either in the rear or at the training grounds. Thus, due to the rotation of experienced front-line soldiers and reservists, it is possible to quickly form a 200-strong fist, transferring it to Belarus. Then the main question arises, will it be enough to take Kyiv?

How reasonable is such an operation somewhere in February 2023?

For understanding, it is worth describing in general terms the outfit of forces necessary for the successful capture of not Kyiv, but, say, the city of Chernigov, which is much more modest in size and population. This is very relevant, since Chernigov became a problem for our grouping at the initial stage of the current SVO. In February 2022, this city was guarded by a garrison with a staff strength of 10 thousand people, but in reality there were from 7 to 8 thousand APU there. Chernihiv was defended by 8 tank battalions and 10 to 12 artillery battalions. Moreover, these were personnel, well-trained and motivated military men.

Russia put up a fist from the troops of the Central Military District, reinforced by the Western District, the Airborne Forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces. In total, at least 30 contract soldiers under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, reinforced by the National Guard, numbering from 15 to 20 people. That is, estimated at Kyiv through Chernihiv along the Left Bank of the Dnieper were 45-50 thousand soldiers with 300-350 tanks, 250-300 artillery pieces and with the support of helicopters. Having rested against the defenses of the Ukrainian garrison, the Russian troops had to bypass the city on the very first day, rushing further towards the capital. The enemy immediately began to launch counterattacks on the flanks and rear of our columns, which led to painful losses. As a result, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had to allocate a detachment of forces, diverting them from the main task near Kyiv, to block Chernigov, the process of which took two weeks. It was not possible to take it by storm, because the city was under siege from March 10 to April 6, until the first "goodwill gesture" took place.

If our troops in February 2023 try to repeat the attack on Chernihiv from the North, for its success it will be necessary to use much larger forces than a year earlier. For one reliable blockade of a city with a population of just over 280 thousand and a garrison of 7-10 thousand, at least 20-30 thousand military personnel will be needed. In order to take it by storm relatively quickly and with a guarantee, at least 40-50 thousand people are needed if there is no desire to repeat Mariupol. In this case, it will be necessary to take into account that the enemy will try to interrupt the lines of communication and conduct a deblockade. In order to prevent this from happening, the grouping should be less than 80 servicemen, or better, all 100. And this is for one Chernihiv. And what about Kyiv, a huge metropolis with a population of under 3 million people?

Yes, a lot of people have already left there, but there are still a lot of people left. Will a 200-strong group be enough to securely blockade and storm the Ukrainian capital? No, this was not enough back in February 2022, and now that they are waiting for us, a repetition of the offensive with relatively small forces is almost certainly doomed to failure. Now a powerful defensive line has been created around Kyiv, the city is covered from the air, defended by a large experienced garrison. If the task is really set to take it at any cost, then it is necessary to create shock fists of 400, or even 500 thousand military personnel, as suggested by the "whiner" Igor Strelkov, well-armed, trained, dressed and shod.

In addition, we must ask ourselves, what exactly will the capture of Kyiv give? This is not the Middle Ages, when the fall of the capital automatically means capitulation. Zelensky and the Cabinet of Ministers will simply be evacuated somewhere to Lviv under the protection of the American missile defense system, and everything will start all over again. The attack on Kyiv, even if it turns out to be successful, will not fundamentally change anything in modern realities.

If the task is set to force Ukraine to capitulate, then it is necessary to act differently. Without dispersing forces, it is necessary to inflict powerful strikes on Kupyansk and Izyum, followed by the encirclement of the APU grouping in the Donbass, which will force the enemy to finally begin the withdrawal of troops from the long-suffering Donetsk. Having achieved the complete liberation of the territory of the DPR and LPR, the released forces must encircle and liberate city after city on the entire Left Bank, cutting the lines of communication of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and squeezing out the garrisons under the threat of complete annihilation. Kharkov, Sumy, Poltava, Pavlograd, then, perhaps, Chernihiv. To solve such problems, a group of 200-300 thousand people will be enough. And only after that can one seriously think about an attack on Ukraine from the North, but not on Kyiv, but on Volyn, Lutsk and Rivne with a threat to Lvov.

Here a lot will depend on Minsk. If Belarus is ready to annex Polesie to itself, this will greatly simplify the question of what to do with the occupied territories in Western Ukraine in the future. Previous experience shows that it is not enough just to come, but you need to have some kind of real integration project that the local population can believe in. Otherwise, there will always be fear of “goodwill gestures” and “regroupings”, which means distrust and resistance.
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  1. viktor goblin Offline viktor goblin
    viktor goblin (viktor goblin) 17 December 2022 15: 06
    +2
    Why step on? 2-3-4 weeks without energy resources .. and truncated.
    1. Maxim A Offline Maxim A
      Maxim A (Maksim) 17 December 2022 19: 49
      +5
      February 1, 2023 write how it is, are they already renting out en masse without energy resources? Flags of the Russian Federation hung out?
      1. bda lng Offline bda lng
        bda lng (Dmitry B.) 17 December 2022 20: 25
        0
        Wow! )) well said about February 1
    2. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
      Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 17 December 2022 21: 34
      +7
      They run on fuel and generators. But for some reason we do not want to destroy the energy system (we spend hundreds of missiles on replaceable transformers), as well as bridges across the Dnieper. Looks like treason
    3. lemeshkin Offline lemeshkin
      lemeshkin (lemeshkin) 18 December 2022 12: 53
      0
      Yes, you think it's that easy?
    4. The comment was deleted.
  2. sap Offline sap
    sap (Alex) 17 December 2022 15: 07
    +22
    Something the author suffered like Ostap. Calm down, no one was going to do anything of what you wanguish about and is not going to. If they wanted to win, they would have acted like any sane person, even if he is not a military man. Cut off primarily from NATO supply bases. They annihilated the management structure, the state, the army, the territories. Eliminated, aviation (airfields) air defense, weapons depots, fuel and lubricants, food supply! FSE! as they say put out the light and drain the water.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. zloybond Offline zloybond
      zloybond (steppenwolf) 17 December 2022 17: 25
      +10
      I'm making a bad comparison, of course, but still...
      The Germans made a serious mistake at the beginning of the war with the USSR. Surrounding 3 Soviet armies, they changed direction to the south. And ... they were transported in the Dnieper region for almost 70 days, starting a fuss with these very Armies. Slowing down the pace, they generally bogged down there. These very 70 days of changing the direction of the main attack gave the USSR time to recover from the shock, to mobilize, to bring the control of the Armies back to normal after the confusion of the start of the war .... and much more ....
      ... Russia ... Having started fussing with negotiations, readiness to be deceived once again, indistinct direction and indistinct goals ... these are the very days ... that Russia's actions gave to the ballers ... They recovered from the shock and began to fight.
      1. bda lng Offline bda lng
        bda lng (Dmitry B.) 17 December 2022 20: 40
        +6
        But unlike Germany, on February 24, Russia was not ready for offensive operations throughout Ukraine, or at least to take Kyiv. And most likely it wasn't going to.
        1. zloybond Offline zloybond
          zloybond (steppenwolf) 17 December 2022 21: 29
          +6
          In fact of the matter. Aims and tasks are vague ... They entered cheerfully and proudly with pathos. Now we successfully fight back. Not only that ... now only trust accounting reports. Well, the state, spirit and so on ... to remain silent under fear ..... it is impossible ... not politically correct and so on.
          1. bda lng Offline bda lng
            bda lng (Dmitry B.) 17 December 2022 22: 04
            0
            Yes, but I do not think that it was not necessary to start under those conditions. You just have to get ready and keep going. There was no other choice, and there is none now.
        2. UAZ 452 Offline UAZ 452
          UAZ 452 (UAZ 452) 18 December 2022 13: 05
          +2
          Russia was not ready for offensive actions, but it started them... And who in this situation turned out to be without brains?
          1. bda lng Offline bda lng
            bda lng (Dmitry B.) 19 December 2022 16: 08
            +1
            An example from life. Three people came up to you in the gateway and asked you to let me smoke, obviously not intending to smoke. Are you asking me to wait while you run for the bat?
    3. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
      Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 17 December 2022 21: 36
      +1
      For what you wrote, we have not had the technical means for a long time
    4. The comment was deleted.
    5. anti-aircraft gunner 18 December 2022 17: 12
      +1
      Bull's-eye! Only the Politburo does not think about that, but about gestures and deals.
  3. polynet Offline polynet
    polynet (polinet) 17 December 2022 15: 10
    +3
    Everything they know. Fantasy is like diarrhea. Turn off their internet.
    1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
      soloist2424 (Oleg) 17 December 2022 16: 31
      +3
      The person earns. Tomorrow he will write how the capture of Warsaw will end in failure.
      1. Vlad Burchilo Offline Vlad Burchilo
        Vlad Burchilo (Vlad) 17 December 2022 18: 11
        +3
        "miracle on the Vistula"? The Red Army in 1920 had an overwhelming majority: in personnel, artillery, aviation, armored trains, in cavalry, but Tukhachevsky was used to the fact that his opponent was not motivated, and most importantly, he dared to counterattack.
        Budyonny sabotaged the order of the Revolutionary Military Council, on the transfer of the 1st cavalry army to Warsaw.
        Perhaps, if not for the sabotage of Budyonny, the Poles' counter-offensive would have turned into a gamble.
        But all this is at the level: "mushrooms grew in the mouth."
        Likewise for the author
  4. Nikolaevich I Offline Nikolaevich I
    Nikolaevich I (Vladimir) 17 December 2022 15: 30
    +2
    I heard that in Belarus it is not averse to having a certain region from Ukraine ... because many Belarusians live there and, if I am not mistaken, this region once belonged to Belarus! It seems to be called Volyn ...
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 17 December 2022 16: 01
      +6
      Well, rightly so, Volyn should be returned to the Belarusians, the father will restore order there.
      1. sap Offline sap
        sap (Alex) 17 December 2022 16: 43
        +2
        Also agree with this! But! Only if the BSSR becomes part of the USSR.2.0 wink
    2. k7k8 Offline k7k8
      k7k8 (vic) 18 December 2022 12: 00
      0
      Something I, living in Belarus, have never heard of such a thing. We seem to be talking about different Belarussian, Mr. tsipsoshnik
      1. Nikolaevich I Offline Nikolaevich I
        Nikolaevich I (Vladimir) 18 December 2022 21: 27
        0
        Quote: k7k8
        living in Belarus, I have never heard of this

        Mdaa...! "I can't see anything, I can't hear anything..."

        1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
          k7k8 (vic) 18 December 2022 23: 23
          -2
          As practice shows, experts on Belarus are usually people who are not even able to indicate it on the map. There are plenty of those. Including you. In 2020, one Irkutsk citizen, foaming at the mouth, proved to me that opposition flags were flying all over the Republic of Belarus. A Kent in green glasses from the glorious city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is now trying to prove the same to me. Nu-nu!
          1. Nikolaevich I Offline Nikolaevich I
            Nikolaevich I (Vladimir) 19 December 2022 10: 55
            0
            by and large, this is not a philistine matter - to choose areas! Old Man will order - and they will take ... at the suggestion of Russia! wink
            Polesie is a region on the territory of 4 states ... a significant part of Polesie belongs to Belarus and Ukraine. Volyn Polissya ... Volyn region ... borders on Belarus and Transnistria. Part of the Belarusian ethnic minority of Ukraine lives compactly on the territory of the Ukrainian-Belarusian ethnic borderland of Polesie.
            1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
              k7k8 (vic) 19 December 2022 13: 57
              0
              You forgot the old folk wisdom that only a fool tries to appear smart all the time.
              1. Nikolaevich I Offline Nikolaevich I
                Nikolaevich I (Vladimir) 19 December 2022 15: 45
                0
                I will not argue; I already hinted at this in my first reply. wink !
                1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
                  k7k8 (vic) 19 December 2022 16: 53
                  0
                  Q.E.D. There is an ancient profession. You have applied the oldest argument used in disputes on Earth.
  5. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 17 December 2022 15: 48
    -1
    A possible new attempt to attack Kyiv is almost certainly doomed to failure.

    In assessing the results of our actions in Ukraine, it is useful for us to proceed from an UNDERSTANDING of the GOALS pursued by our enemy there. This enemy is not an ukroreich, and not even NATO, but their masters, the Anglo-Saxons. We all understand this very well. Accordingly, their goals have nothing to do with the benefit of Ukraine and NATO.
    What the Anglo-Saxons themselves need is not difficult to understand:
    - draw Europe (NATO) into a war with Russia and force it to shed its blood
    - defeat Russia by proxy
    - weaken Europe with the blood of Russia without getting dirty in the blood of your vassals
    - take over the resources of Russia and the industry of Europe
    - use the nuclear weapons of the defeated Russia to attack China from its territory
    - use as "cannon fodder" against China, a part of the Russian population suitable for this, destroy the rest
    These plans can only be destroyed by forcing the Anglo-Saxons to retreat by the threat of their destruction by our strategic nuclear weapons, with the readiness to fully realize the threat and mutual destruction. Just like it was in 1962.
    Any serious operations in Ukraine, without proactively forcing the Anglo-Saxons to retreat, are guaranteed to lead to Russia being drawn into the war with NATO and its destruction.
    I think that for the sake of being able to draw NATO into the war and force the Europeans to shed their blood in it, the Anglo-Saxons can even initiate a large-scale retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the borders of Poland
    1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
      soloist2424 (Oleg) 17 December 2022 16: 33
      -2
      I think that for the sake of being able to draw NATO into the war and force the Europeans to shed their blood in it, the Anglo-Saxons can even initiate a large-scale retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the borders of Poland

      Who knows. Interesting plan.
    2. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 17 December 2022 20: 36
      -2
      To implement your plan, you need to have a very big heart untied from the "worldly", the worldly corrupts hearts and makes commoner warriors losers who depend on the opinion of the strong. And so your plan is the only correct one.
      1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
        Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 17 December 2022 20: 58
        0
        To carry out your plan, you need to have a very big heart untied from the "worldly"

        In 1962, in the USSR, this was done by ordinary people who cared about the future of their family and Motherland. I think that even now there are enough such reasonable people. But the bastards - pests, traitors and other evil spirits that prevent us all from doing THIS, you just need to get out of the way. It's about saving lives
    3. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
      Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 17 December 2022 21: 39
      -2
      Yes, let them go to Poland, then Russia will at least take everything to the Dnieper, and in the south to Transnistria. Fucking plan for them
      1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
        Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 17 December 2022 22: 14
        -4
        In view of the imminent danger of invasion, Europe will make the final decision to participate in the war. A formal provocation will be organized, Poland and other NATO countries will send troops to Ukraine. Since this will officially declare war on Russia, the "blanks" of the theater will be unfrozen in Kalininrad and near St. Petersburg, and possibly also in the Far East.
        The economy of the Western world and its "colonies" will switch entirely to this war. The first part of the US plan - the destruction of Russia with the help of NATO - will come into effect.
        In the war with NATO, today's Russia does not have the slightest chance.
        Even in Soviet times, the entire Warsaw Pact (eight countries and armies) had to fight with NATO together with the USSR, and this war was not considered easy
        1. Alexander Dutov Offline Alexander Dutov
          Alexander Dutov (Alexander Dutov) 18 December 2022 10: 12
          -4
          40 nuclear strikes in a row and our detachment is in Paris ...
          1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
            Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 December 2022 10: 39
            0
            Turn on Alexander's head.
            Are we the only ones who have nuclear weapons?
        2. cooper Offline cooper
          cooper (Alexander) 18 December 2022 11: 20
          -5
          Don't rustle. Today NATO .. ​​so, show off more.
          1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
            Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 December 2022 21: 11
            0
            Here is an excerpt from an analytical article by Ilya Topchia on the topic of the realities and alignments of the Cold War that have changed over 30 years.
            https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7387166.html
            The article was written by him in December 2021 for the Expert magazine. On January 17, 2022, she appeared in No. 3 of this magazine:
            https://expert.ru/expert/2022/03/rossiya-protiv-nato-rasklad-sil-za-30-let/

            ...Conclusions.
            1. The collapse of the USSR, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the advancement of NATO to the east became the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 600th century. For a short third of a century, the military potential of Russia and its European allies (without nuclear weapons) has been reduced by six times (not counting civilian personnel). The country's nuclear arsenal has decreased by three and a half times. The enemy advanced 1500-1 kilometers to the east without a fight. The deployment of missiles and strike aircraft in Poland will reduce the flight time to Moscow and St. Petersburg to less than an hour and a half, in the Baltic States and Ukraine - to less than an hour (to St. Petersburg from Estonia - up to minutes). At the same time, the speed of the invasion of mechanized columns from the territory of Ukraine and the Baltic States in the event of a concentration of NATO forces there, with access to the St. Petersburg-Moscow-Volgograd line, is reduced to 10-XNUMX days.

            2. NATO's potential has declined slightly over 30 years. A significant part of the Alliance forces is still deployed in Europe - in the direction of the main attack against Russia. The relatively small (several tens of thousands of officers and soldiers) US contingent in Europe should not be misleading. It can be rapidly increased to a front-line group within three to four months. At the same time, the numerous armies of the US allies, built in several echelons, will serve as cover forces for the promising American deployment.

            3. Since 2014, the Russian Federation has somewhat restored its military potential. The size of the Armed Forces (without civilian personnel) has been increased by one and a half times, the number of strategic nuclear weapons has been tripled. The presence of a hypersonic weapon that can easily overcome the anti-missile barrier being intensively created by the United States has been declared. According to some calculations, in Russia and the United States there are about a hundred targets each for a promising nuclear attack, and, with the involvement of several charges per target, several hundred atomic strikes are enough.

            4. Nevertheless, the situation continues to be threatening. To ensure maximum security, it is necessary to reach the former western borders of the USSR, to restore the vast foreground in front of Moscow and St. Petersburg. This is a matter of strategic security and survival. Moreover, the Western (European) theater of operations is still the main one for the NATO countries, which conduct dozens of comprehensive military exercises annually and have a well-functioning infrastructure for the actions of large masses of troops.

            5. In addition, the line of the former border of the USSR in the west, minus the land border with Finland, is the most convenient position for defense against Europe, since it runs along a narrow "isthmus" between the Baltic and Black Seas. Here is the shortest front for hostilities. To the east and west are the "bells" of the extensions of the continental territories.

            6. The scale of actions in the event of an acute phase of the crisis is expected to be front-line, even during operations on the territory of neighboring states, such as Ukraine. Once again, questions of all levels of military art, the prospects for replenishing losses, and above all damage in military equipment, the potential of the military industry and the economy as a whole, are topical.

            I will add a very important factor that aggravates the situation for us, not considered in this article.
            The interests of the United States and Great Britain, as customers and beneficiaries of this war, geographically remote from all its theaters, not related to minimizing the damage to the troops of NATO countries, rather the opposite. European countries for them are expendable material and prey in this war.
            Therefore, they will support the fight despite their loss to the "end" of one of the participants - i.e. Russia
            1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
              Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 December 2022 21: 44
              0
              All of the above is written about the "trap" that the Anglo-Saxons set for us in Ukraine in order to drag us into a war with NATO and destroy it with their hands.
              Our goal is to force the very "masters" of this war - the United States and Great Britain - to retreat by the threat of their destruction, with the readiness to go to the end in this, as in 1962.
              Only in this way can we turn the tide of events in our favor and force the enemy to retreat to their original positions. Probably the NATO countries will only be happy about this, of course - with the exception of the USA and Great Britain themselves
          2. Oger Tegemesh Offline Oger Tegemesh
            Oger Tegemesh (Oger Tegemesh) 20 December 2022 05: 16
            0
            Did the capture of Kurdyumovka turn your head like that?
        3. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
          Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 11
          -1
          There are no men left .. some kind of. Cowards and whiners. They are afraid of everything and scare others. How many of these left Russia? Many work in Central Asia as taxi drivers or take on any penny job. These are cowards brought up by mothers. Under-men.
  6. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 17 December 2022 16: 10
    +6
    Taking cities by storm (any) is the last thing.
    Sun Tzu will not let you lie.
    M.b. is it worth thinking about remotely cutting through a corridor in enemy air defense from north to south? Methodically destroy the identified air defense systems in a sufficiently wide band until a corridor is formed for round-the-clock air control of communications supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the western part of the country.
    After that, the bombers will fly in one pass, through and through, without turning over enemy territory. I'm talking about high-speed ones that can get away from MANPADS. Then time will work for us.
  7. Pavel volkov Offline Pavel volkov
    Pavel volkov (Pavel Volkov) 17 December 2022 16: 47
    +8
    Why go to Kyiv?
    Will the supply of weapons from this become less? Or, the decision-making center will not "leave" for conditional Lviv?
    1. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
      Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 13
      +1
      How do weapons get to the East of Ukraine? He is being transported through the tunnels. Or does Russia need samples of Western weapons in order to produce its own based on them?
  8. lance Offline lance
    lance 17 December 2022 16: 48
    -1
    ukroarmiya itself will leave Kyiv by May. I accept bets
  9. serivolkf1 Offline serivolkf1
    serivolkf1 (sergey wolf) 17 December 2022 16: 53
    -4
    which means "will not give anything", the capture of Kyiv is practically a victory, not to mention the propagandistic, moral, reputational costs that not only dill, but also their owners will have ... If we take Kyiv, then this is tantamount to victory! !!
  10. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 17 December 2022 16: 57
    -1
    Sergei again skidded with conclusions. Zaluzhny talks about 200 thousand in total, and not about a group aimed only at Kyiv. Accordingly, All conclusions collapse due to perverted reference information.
  11. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 17 December 2022 17: 32
    +3
    100 XNUMX. And this is for one Chernihiv.

    Okay, for the liberation of Chernihiv for 100 thousand. military personnel.

    Having achieved the complete liberation of the territory of the DPR and LPR, the released forces

    Where will the "liberated forces" come from? Will the line of contact be reduced? No.

    it is necessary to encircle and liberate city after city .... Kharkov, Sumy, Poltava, Pavlograd,

    Yeah, there are no forces for Chernigov (300 tons of population), but there are forces for Kharkov (1,4 million)? I don't see the logic.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. shinobi Offline shinobi
      shinobi (Yuri) 18 December 2022 05: 02
      +2
      Uh, are we at war with the population?
      1. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
        Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 14
        -1
        Yes. The population is at war with us
  12. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 17 December 2022 17: 35
    +1
    In general, this war is very incomprehensible. Reminds me of the war between France and England against Germany. Not that they really wanted to beat the Germans, but give him a direction to the east. The German roamed and made it clear that with such forces he would not go east, there would not be enough strength, moreover, more weapons were needed. The West understood and raised its paws. Here the West left all the weapons for the Germans, which should have been enough for three months, with smart use for four months. So instead of using this in the right direction, Herr Hitler went to the South of Europe and mediocrely ruined a month and a half there. Here, at least retreating and stretching the offensive zone of the Germans in breadth and depth, the USSR showed Europe where they hibernate with cancer. The USSR stood and showed itself on that. But not without reason Stalin said that our enemy is inside and behind us. Now a new country is rocking.
  13. Vlad Burchilo Offline Vlad Burchilo
    Vlad Burchilo (Vlad) 17 December 2022 17: 53
    +4
    it took 6 Red Army soldiers to "create a fist" in the Second World War to take Kyiv, and they were opposed by about 000 million ..
    At the same time, most of the population unconditionally trusted Stalin.
    Let's say V. V introduced the VP and announced a general mobilization. How many will support him? No matter how. It was said on the Reporter that 42% are generally purple war. Do you remember how many evaders there were? With partial mobilization?
    Even if he is 100 times right, a significant part of the population does not support him, and without this he cannot be defeated.
    1) it is necessary to introduce VP, and not everyone agrees to this, and V. B has to take this into account.
    2) announce a general mobilization, (see paragraph 1)
    3) the army needs to be dressed, shod, armed and trained, but do we have everything for this?
    Putin now spares no expense, and he also has a certain reserve of funds. Again, it takes time and complete obedience, but he does not have it.
    1. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
      Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 18
      0
      And what does it mean that the population will not support Putin? You will go to war like a nice little one. Or, according to the laws of war, you will wallow in a ditch with a hole in your head. And rightly so.
  14. mechanic Offline mechanic
    mechanic (Yuri) 17 December 2022 18: 11
    0
    A man lies with a folded jaw in a ravine and talks about how he will get up now, how he will catch up with the offenders, and how he will beat everyone !!!!
    Well, it’s clear what else to do, lie down and comfort your trampled pride ....
  15. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 17 December 2022 18: 41
    +2
    What to discuss about the offensive, if Peskov declares that he is not in the plans of the Kremlin. The Kremlin is looking for an opportunity to conclude a peace treaty with Ukraine. Ukraine-NATO wants the capitulation of the Russian Federation. The "elite" of the Russian Federation is ready to surrender everything and Crimea and, LDNR, etc. And you, about the offensive.
    1. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
      Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 19
      +1
      So you need to start with,, elite,, Were supposed to be strong and clean
  16. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 17 December 2022 19: 26
    0
    The "elite" of the Russian Federation is ready to surrender everything and Crimea and, LDNR, etc. And you, about the offensive.

    There is no this option. At all.
    The Anglo-Saxons do not need our shoes, and even a purse. They want to completely swallow all our property, use us as consumables in their plans against China, and then dismantle what remains of us for organs. In the literal and figurative sense. They won't settle for less - why on earth?

    And you, about the offensive.

    Our offensive in Ukraine is just the first part of their plan, allowing us to be destroyed by NATO.
    That's what they don't have in their plan - their own animal horror at the destruction of our nuclear weapons along with the house, and our willingness to sacrifice ourselves if they do not agree to retreat.
    This was already the case in 1962, and we have the opportunity to refresh their memories.
    To do this, we need a government capable of doing EVERYTHING that is necessary to save Russia, and to do it promptly and competently.
    If our government is capable of that, great.
    Other - the collective voluntary consent of the people to death
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 17 December 2022 20: 07
      0
      Quote: Alexey Davydov
      This was already the case in 1962.

      And not only that, in 1983 there was also a similar case which, however, is not so well known.
  17. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
    Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 17 December 2022 20: 03
    +4
    There are many attack options. There are not enough troops for all of them. Kyiv is a difficult target that requires a lot of troops and time, and it’s not a fact that 200 thousand is enough. Yes, and what will the capture of the Kyiv region give? Not only that, the capital will be Lviv. A blow to Western Ukraine? Far away, and the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can continue through Moldova, the Odessa region, although the conditions of supply are deteriorating. Attack on Odessa? However, why did Kherson leave then? Unlikely. A blow from Russia from Belgorod along the Seversky Donets to Izyum and further south past the Donbass? Quite realistic and with options. However, this must be done extremely quickly, not allowing the enemy to gather. A strike from the Zaporizhian Front is possible if the weather and mud permit. A blow past Kharkov to the west towards Dnepropetrovsk? Possible if quickly and successfully, but adventurous because there are not enough troops. In the forehead from the Donbass to the west? Perhaps difficult, with losses. The main thing in all options is "camouflage, speed and onslaught."
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  19. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
    Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 17 December 2022 21: 00
    +2
    The author, until you block the river, you will not drain the swamp. I hope you understand.
  20. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
    Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 17 December 2022 21: 33
    +2
    And, that's where these heroes of an unsuccessful one, the author of this article is one of them, offers all the same senseless actions that lead to nothing. Kyiv is the territory of the left bank of the Dnieper, closest to us, and we must go to this border. And the stupid head-on campaign proposed by the author cannot end with anything significant other than the death of tens of thousands of our soldiers
  21. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 17 December 2022 21: 55
    +1
    The capture of Kyiv would have a huge psychological effect both on the Russians themselves and on their enemies, and even on half-friends. That's the way a person is. To know that all ministries, central governments, etc. in the hands of an advancing army, it would be an intoxicating feeling of excitement. Raising your flag on the building of the Hochlofuhrer's office is an epic moment...
  22. Uncle Borya Offline Uncle Borya
    Uncle Borya (Uncle Borya) 17 December 2022 22: 20
    -2
    Quote: Daniel K
    For what you wrote, we have not had the technical means for a long time

    Yes, we ran out of missiles back in March. This we have repeatedly heard from non-brothers of various kinds.
  23. nikanikolich Offline nikanikolich
    nikanikolich (nikola) 17 December 2022 22: 25
    -3
    They so wanted to see the famine that America arranged, now they need to arrange for them Ukropsky morons, heavenly happiness so that they understand what is what, where and when. Crazy.
  24. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 18 December 2022 00: 15
    +2
    I agree with the author's arguments. True, there is another adventurous scenario. Cut off Ukraine from Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia with a blow from the territory of Belarus without occupying large cities and thus ensuring the blockade of the entire country. And when trying to unblock, deliver nuclear strikes with tactical weapons. Thus, the whole country will be in the ring, without fuel, electricity, food and ammunition. This is a faster way to win and a grouping of 200 thousand is the minimum for such a task. But unlike the scenario you proposed, this scenario will allow us to solve the problem of Ukraine in half a year. I agree that in this scenario, the threat of nuclear war is growing, and at least 300 more reservists will probably have to be mobilized for the subsequent establishment of control over the whole of Ukraine, but it seems to me more realistic in terms of the required level of the fact of victory.
    1. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
      Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 28
      +1
      It is in Russia that Ukraine has thousands and millions of spies, informers, and there, ours, are few.
  25. Little Muck_2 Offline Little Muck_2
    Little Muck_2 (Little Muck) 18 December 2022 00: 30
    +2
    Quote: guest
    Well, rightly so, Volyn should be returned to the Belarusians, the father will restore order there.

    Old Man would give more will and resources.
    1. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
      ivan2022 (ivan2022) 18 December 2022 07: 18
      +3
      Quote: Little Muk_2
      Old Man would give more will and resources.

      If the Old Man had lived in Russia, he would EXACTLY have received nothing at all .... Our national idol was Yeltsin.

      He alone could go to Germany and conduct an orchestra to "Kalinka-Malinka", and then publicly piss on an airplane wheel .... How !!!

      Where is there some Old Man against him !! Where to him, where to him - before. collective farm to the wretched .....
  26. Shuev Offline Shuev
    Shuev (Shuisky) 18 December 2022 00: 40
    +2
    A possible new attempt to attack Kyiv is almost certainly doomed to failure.

    Maybe initially it is necessary to resolve the issue with the "decision-making center"?
  27. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 18 December 2022 05: 00
    +2
    Nobody will attack anywhere. The situation has changed. A fist in Belarus so that the Poles (read NATO) would not be tempted to poke their noses there. And they have it, they don’t even hide it. In the place of our "strategists", I would ( as a couch "analeteg-strategist") captured the Black Sea coast to the PMR. By doing this, we get additional arguments in the "saber dance" with Turkey and deprive Ukraine of supplies from the sea, gaining a land corridor (even temporarily) to the weapons depots in PMR. In those warehouses it will be possible to fight calmly for about half a year and the issue with the PMR itself is being resolved. Well, the sacramental truth of all times and peoples: In winter, offensive wars are not waged. Except for Russia, no one can afford it. Expensive!
    1. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
      Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 18 December 2022 10: 17
      +1
      )) Forget about Transnistria and the Black Sea region, the train has left. In February-March, such an opportunity was, but not now.
      1. shinobi Offline shinobi
        shinobi (Yuri) 18 December 2022 18: 22
        -1
        Kherson is a temporary phenomenon, I think it will be returned back by the summer.
        1. guest Offline guest
          guest 18 December 2022 18: 45
          +1
          Quote: shinobi
          I think it will be back by summer

          By the summer of what year?
          1. shinobi Offline shinobi
            shinobi (Yuri) 18 December 2022 19: 11
            -2
            It is optimistic if, then at 23. Factors of the external economy are favorable for this. By this time, all equipment produced in the USSR of the post-Soviet space and African countries, which is under the West by 90 percent, will be recycled. The dollar bubble will be blown away (by $ 1,5-2 trillion ), somewhere by a third. The industry of Europe is already everything. Further, forcing 404 to peace through negotiations with the loss of territories de facto and so uncontrolled by the Kuev. After which the United States will announce its next "victory" over Russia. Why exactly 23? with China, which they are not able to solve, but they will try by force. And the United States simply won’t pull the war on two big fronts, no matter what their economists sing in the tabloids. The Yankee Democrats simply run out of time to implement their plans. Something like that.
  28. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
    Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 18 December 2022 10: 12
    +1
    The author thinks realistically, the war is localized in the east, the campaign against Kyiv is meaningless and doomed. The Kremlin will try to keep what it has already occupied, as well as, if possible, take a couple of dozen more villages, Bakhmut, Vugledar, possibly Izyum and Kupyansk, may indicate a threat to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Propaganda reports will begin with the words advancing)). The Armed Forces of Ukraine will counterattack, also with the probability of local success. So the year 2023 will pass without significant visible successes of the parties. The main efforts of the Kremlin will be directed to the implementation of the BS through the Republicans. That is, buttocks in the east of Ukraine for at least 2 years. Donbass has paid and will pay the highest price of this war.
    1. Alex Tarhov Offline Alex Tarhov
      Alex Tarhov (Alex Tarhov) 18 December 2022 19: 32
      -1
      Why attack and lose hundreds of our guys? It is much easier to repel attacks, while destroying manpower and not only. And move forward a little
  29. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 18 December 2022 11: 21
    -5
    There was no attack on Kyiv. There was a distraction. Less Wikipedia needs to be read.
    1. Mordvin 3 Offline Mordvin 3
      Mordvin 3 (Vladimir) 19 December 2022 13: 33
      0
      Quote: Ignatov Oleg Georgievich
      There was a distraction.

      To liberate Mariupol?
  30. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 18 December 2022 12: 11
    +1
    If Belarus is ready to annex Polesie to itself

    The author, with tenacity worthy of a better use, disperses the topic of drawing Belarus directly into hostilities in Ukraine. But he has never answered the question of how and how the 70-strong (from the Defense Ministry to the last soldier alphabetically) Belarusian army can help the half-million grouping of the RF Armed Forces in Ukraine? The question of the political consequences of this step will be taken out of the brackets for the time being.
  31. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 18 December 2022 12: 42
    +3
    Without dispersing forces, it is necessary to inflict powerful strikes on Kupyansk and Izyum, followed by the encirclement of the AFU grouping in the Donbass,

    And I agree. In order to conduct larger offensives, we do not have enough forces. Therefore, there is no other way out. Transferring forces, liberate one region in turn and cut off Ukraine from the sea. For larger offensive operations, another 400 thousand minimum is needed.
  32. anti-aircraft gunner 18 December 2022 17: 11
    0
    Again Marzhetsky fantasizes. With the current timid Politburo, we cannot drive the fascists away from Donetsk. What Chernihiv? Which Kyiv? Which Lviv? Only in the fantasies of Marzhetsky.
    1. shinobi Offline shinobi
      shinobi (Yuri) 18 December 2022 18: 30
      -2
      In general, within the framework of the NWO, (remember the goals and objectives that were announced?) Everything is going according to plan. Not a word was said there about driving away. in fact with NATO. Donetsk endured 8 years. It will endure a couple of months.
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    3. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 11: 58
      0
      Will the anti-aircraft gunner go and drive away the Ukrafashiks from Donetsk? Nothing without you, you see. Apostle you will lead troops to Chernigov, Kyiv, Lvov. The author will write about you and we will all be proud of you! Hero!!!
  33. gosha smirnov_2 Offline gosha smirnov_2
    gosha smirnov_2 (gosha smirnov) 19 December 2022 00: 42
    0
    It was smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines.

    You can immediately forget about Belarus. No one will just give her Polesie away and she will definitely not help the Russian Federation with her troops. Yes, and the micro-army of Belarus of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be crushed like a bug in three seconds.
    Well, and if you want to stretch the war for 10 years (I personally don’t want it!), then just at such a pace of 200-300 thousand slowly taking city after city (if it still turns out that it’s not a fact), you will fight for years.
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 11: 53
      -1
      Gosh, where did you get information about the number of our and Belarusian troops? Are you an American spy?
  34. gosha smirnov_2 Offline gosha smirnov_2
    gosha smirnov_2 (gosha smirnov) 19 December 2022 00: 57
    +4
    Quote: viktor goblin
    Why step on? 2-3-4 weeks without energy resources .. and truncated.

    What's real? There have been serious power outages in Kyiv since October. After the first raid. Did it somehow affect? ​​Almost nothing! no problems with light at all.
    And in Kyiv now even the people have gotten used to it and prepared themselves. A lot of generators everywhere, etc.
    1. Dust Offline Dust
      Dust (Sergei) 19 December 2022 11: 40
      0
      About the lyrics that they hate the Russian Federation, you leave it for the impressionable. Kherson region clearly showed who loves whom. The people did not go beyond the Dnieper from a good life with the Russian troops. Now Kherson is practically an empty city.
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    2. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 12: 02
      -1
      Gosh, everyone who hates the Russian Federation will be destroyed! But adequate people will enter the fraternal country of Russia. We will not have a single Banderist. Land them with acid!
  35. Andrey Naumov Offline Andrey Naumov
    Andrey Naumov (Andrey Naumov) 19 December 2022 10: 57
    -1
    There are no longer even 2 million people in Kyiv, but the area of ​​​​the city is the same and the problems of the assault are the same. Based on the logic of the author, then maybe it’s not worth taking cities at all? Let's stand still, and the war will somehow end by itself? That doesn't happen. If necessary, they will conduct another, more extensive mobilization, based on the experience and elimination of the shortcomings of the first.
  36. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 19 December 2022 11: 34
    +5
    What offensive are you talking about? Since June, we have been “stupidly” sitting in the trenches under the shelling of the Ukrainian MLRS. And so almost along the entire front line. Only in the Donetsk direction are we trying to “frontal” push through the echeloned defense. We have 70% of the loss of composition from the shelling of these American MLRS. When HIMARS hits with shrapnel ammunition. After arriving at the positions, 170 thousand tungsten balls scatter. Trenches do not save from this.
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 12: 25
      +1
      Dust are you talking about 170 thousand balls from Hymers that shoot at residential buildings in Donetsk and our other cities? 70% where such interest? Can you voice the percentage of losses of ukrofascists from our MLRS? Ilt Were you banned from voicing them in Kyiv?
  37. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 19 December 2022 16: 36
    +2
    What they write. The article shows the level of the modern army of the RF Armed Forces, using the example of artillery. In comparison, the level of the economies of the NATO countries and the Russian Federation is the same.
    https://topwar.ru/206569-bol-i-nischeta-rossijskoj-artillerii.html
    Pain and poverty of Russian artillery
    The problem is that two armies clashed - one from the time of the First World War (this is Russian), the second - the level of the 1990 Gulf War. And alas, the second army really nightmares the first. And the first one cannot do anything about it, because the second army has a huge advantage: it sees farther and better, it exchanges information faster at all levels, it is more mobile.
    Everyone can draw their own conclusions.
    1. Nelton Online Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 19 December 2022 17: 51
      +2
      The problem with the growing backlog in the electronic component base began back in the 196s.
      The pogrom of the Soviet air defense in Lebanon in 1982 clearly showed that the Soviet army against the modern Western one is about nothing.
      The doctrine of the Russian Federation, "we are in the house" under the protection of a guaranteed return salvo of nuclear weapons, worked quite well.
      She even works for Skorea.

      But to climb into battle with conventional weapons against NATO?
      Did you know that the Russian Federation is far behind in the electronic component base? should have known.
      And still stubbornly climbed on the rampage.
      8/8/8 and in 2014 a ride...

      You can, of course, talk about the 5th column, which destroyed the production of lithographic equipment in the Russian Federation under the standards, well, at least 32 nm. Yes, but the Russian Federation did not have such productions ...
      And there weren't and aren't many productions.

      They were able to create something, let's say the Ukrainian components were able to replace it throughout the economy - which is not so trivial.
      Matrix for thermal imagers - in 2016 a prototype was created ...

      Regarding the scientific, technical and production base that was at least in 1990, at least in 2014, the result is more likely to be "4" than "3-".
      But if everything had been done on "5" - the current alignments would not have changed radically, just Western UAVs would have been added to the Hymars.
      1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 12: 19
        0
        Nelton, but tomorrow a swarm of Geraniums will fly out in the morning and not a single Hymers will remain in the afternoon. What will you write then?
    2. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 12: 13
      0
      Vlad, the pain of the poverty of Russian artillery? This poverty is hammering for days, mixing thousands of Ukrofascists with the land. It's good that you don't know the resources of our army. Hitler did not know either, but he was sure that our country was collos with feet of clay. He knew how everything would end for him, he decided to destroy himself. So you and others like you draw conclusions now so as not to be surprised later. Pain and poverty utterly defeated the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  38. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 December 2022 01: 43
    -2
    I repeat once again - There was no attack on Kyiv!
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  39. gosha smirnov_2 Offline gosha smirnov_2
    gosha smirnov_2 (gosha smirnov) 20 December 2022 14: 24
    +1
    Quote: Ignatov Oleg Georgievich
    Gosh, where did you get information about the number of our and Belarusian troops? Are you an American spy?

    thanks! Neighing! Yeah. Stirlitz local tailoring
  40. gosha smirnov_2 Offline gosha smirnov_2
    gosha smirnov_2 (gosha smirnov) 20 December 2022 14: 25
    0
    Quote: Andrey Naumov
    There are no longer even 2 million people in Kyiv, but the area of ​​​​the city is the same and the problems of the assault are the same. Based on the logic of the author, then maybe it’s not worth taking cities at all? Let's stand still, and the war will somehow end by itself? That doesn't happen. If necessary, they will conduct another, more extensive mobilization, based on the experience and elimination of the shortcomings of the first.

    Klitschko announced about 3 million just now
  41. gosha smirnov_2 Offline gosha smirnov_2
    gosha smirnov_2 (gosha smirnov) 20 December 2022 14: 26
    +1
    Quote: Ignatov Oleg Georgievich
    Gosh, everyone who hates the Russian Federation will be destroyed! But adequate people will enter the fraternal country of Russia. We will not have a single Banderist. Land them with acid!

    Maybe it’s enough to scatter menacing statements, which no one has long been afraid of after regular regroupings. Kiev has already been threatened to be taken in 3-4 days
  42. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 20 December 2022 23: 26
    0
    I agree with the respected author, no need for Kyiv, let Kyiv cook itself without light and water, you need to go to the lions
  43. Antor Offline Antor
    Antor 23 December 2022 08: 18
    0
    The strategy of hat-throwing, and then goodwill, more like confusion, showed itself to the fullest at the first stage of the NWO, and many recognized this. I really hope that conclusions are being drawn and this is inevitable. Only one thing is disturbing - this is not a defeated 5th column inside Russia, a breeding ground for various pro-Western saboteurs, not to mention outright traitors. And they are also many of our shortcomings, which were revealed by the SVO, in many respects precisely because of this. It is necessary to carefully look and analyze who for years sang a funeral song to our military-industrial complex, bankrupting their enterprises, recklessly lying, uselessly disrupting the supply of military products so necessary to the troops over and over again, plundering budget money and warehouse property, etc. etc. .P. We must finally deal with the military personnel, cleaning out the army of clans, corruption and all those who ended up in it by accident.
    A lot needs to be done to preserve such a territory of the country, the threats are only growing.
  44. w-schmidt-adelsheimt-online.de (Vladimir Schmidt) 21 January 2023 18: 40
    0
    There is such a thing as logistics and what we have now