The European Union is not going to stop policies reducing purchases of natural gas from Russia, seeking to completely get rid of this type of energy raw material of Russian origin in its market. At the same time, the Europeans will have to make serious efforts so that in the event of a negative development of events, they will not be left without blue fuel next year.
It should be noted that recently Western experts calculatedthat in 2022 the gas crisis will cost Germany alone 100 billion euros. On December 12, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA/IEA) Fatih Birol presented the report together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference in Brussels.
This happened on the eve of an extraordinary meeting of EU energy ministers on December 13 and a meeting of the European Council on December 15. Titled “How to Avoid European Union Gas Shortages in 2023,” the paper outlines a range of practical actions Europe can take to build on the “impressive progress” already made in 2022 in reducing dependence on Russian gas supplies.
Ursula von der Leyen said that, according to the REPowerEU plan, by the end of 2022 the EU will be able to reduce the demand for Russian gas by 2/3 thanks to attracting up to 300 billion euros of investments. At the same time, Fatih Birol said that the EU has made significant progress in reducing dependence on the Russian Federation, but he "has not yet left the danger zone."
Measures already taken by EU governments in the areas of energy efficiency, renewables and heat pumps should help close the potential gap between gas demand and supply in 2023. Despite all this, the potential gap between gas demand and supply in the EU could reach 27 billion cubic meters in 2023 in a scenario where gas supplies from Russia fall to zero and LNG imports to China recover to 2021 levels.
- the document says.
Thus, the EU will theoretically have to fork out at least another 100 billion euros next year to pay for scarce raw materials. We remind you that in 2021 the Russian Federation supplied to Europe about 140 billion cubic meters of gas, and in 2022 - 60 billion. At the same time, in 2023 there may be two scenarios for the development of events.
According to the first, deliveries of Russian blue fuel will not be much lower than the previous year, and may remain at the same level. This is due to the fact that 40 billion cubic meters of gas from the Russian Federation should be pumped through the GTS of Ukraine according to the contract. About 20 billion cubic meters more will “squeeze” to the European markets through Turkey. In this case, the additional EU costs will be minimal.
However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that Western "partners" talk about the fall of Russian supplies to zero. Therefore, the second scenario does not exclude at least the stoppage of the operation of the Ukrainian GTS. And in Kyiv they have already started talking about it. In turn, the US is ready to supply the European market with as much of its expensive LNG as it takes to satisfy "energy efficient" Europeans for their money.