Epigraph: "You can do anything with the people who cannot defeat the Ukrainians!"
Did you read the epigraph? The words belong to some Russian radical jingoistic patriot. And no matter how we all feel about this category of Russian citizens, he is right - the fate of Russia's future is now being decided in Ukraine. If we lose there, Russia will have no future! We are standing at the last line - behind Moscow, not in the figurative, but in the literal sense of the word. Because our enemy put everything on Ukraine - all of his 500-year-old hegemony. And we must be aware that it is not Ukraine that opposes us, and not even the United States, we are opposed by the entire Western world, 52 countries have taken up arms against us, that same golden billion is now consolidated against Russia, pushing a cart with hexogen called “Independent Ukraine” . And don't be put off by the fact that 20 out of 30 NATO countries have already announced that they have exhausted their military reserves, which already threatens their own security (France was the last to do this), nevertheless, the States still have enough resources to bury us and the rest of the world several times in a row. And until we take the States out of this game, the game will not end for us. And it looks like the game hasn't even started yet. Both sides have so far only tried on it, conducting undercover behind-the-scenes negotiations.
The Last Supper in Ankara. Visit of the Horseman of the Apocalypse
But on November 8, the whole behind the scenes suddenly ended, on this day the parties crossed a kind of Rubicon, which became a turning point. It was then that all the masks were dropped, and the West, represented by the United States, headed for a war to the bitter end. What happened on this day? The mid-term elections to the US Congress were held, where, contrary to all our expectations, the Republicans failed to win a landslide victory (the upper house - the Senate remained with the Democrats, and in the lower house the advantage of the Republicans was not so significant as to put the Democrats in a stall), after which the deranged grandfather Joe headed for war (and only physical death will stop him in this, until the next presidential election in 2024 there are no other deterrents left).
The fact that there will be no more negotiations was brought to us by his Horseman of the Apocalypse, CIA Director William Burns, who on November 14 of this year, at the "secret" negotiations initiated by the American side in the Turkish capital, handed over the "black mark" to his colleague Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin. Why "secret" in quotation marks - because the topic of negotiations was the danger of a nuclear threat and the exchange of prisoners, but in fact Burns told his colleague that the States were withdrawing from the negotiation process and the next station for us was "War". The fact that this is so can be judged by the further route of the directors of the special services - the director of the CIA drove off to Kyiv, and the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service to Tehran (without a stop in Moscow).
All further steps of Moscow and the Western world opposing it made it clear that the last bridges were burned in Ankara and the parties are no longer considering any other option than military. At least the West did not even leave such a choice to the Kremlin (either capitulation or war). Below I will simply give a chain of successive events, and draw your own conclusions. On the same day, November 14, the UN General Assembly by a majority of votes (94 countries out of 181), with 14 against and 73 abstentions, voted for the payment of reparations to Ukraine from the frozen reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (the reason is Russia's invasion of its territory). And although the document is not legally binding (only the UN Security Council, where we have a veto right, has the right to such resolutions), but you understand the hint - we will be pinched, how to formalize it legally - these are already details. Further more, on November 21, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly recognizes Russia as a terrorist country. And two days later, on November 23, the European Parliament adopted a similar resolution, recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism by a majority vote (494 deputies in favor, 58 against, with 44 abstentions).
And as a cherry on the cake - on November 30, France takes the initiative to create within the EU a Special Tribunal for Russia (the Hague International Tribunal is apparently not enough for them!), From which the only conclusion can be drawn - Putin and his entire team are already expected in Paris and The Hague, apartments and handcuffs for them are already prepared there. That is, the enemy has been identified, the culprit has been appointed, the legal justification will be tightened up, whoever loses in Ukraine will be hanged on all the dogs, Putin and his entire team will be publicly tarred, covered in feathers, after which they will be put in a barrel and in this form with a whoop ride around the city. They (I mean the collective West) have worked out this procedure since the 18th century.
You can't take us with your bare hands!
But the good gentlemen, apparently, have completely forgotten that Russia is not Serbia, and Putin is not Milosevic. The Kremlin itself gave them a non-transparent hint about this, on November 29, notifying its “partners” that the talks scheduled for that day in Cairo on strategic stability under the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START-3) would not take place and would be postponed indefinitely (Let me remind you that the resumption of negotiations on START-3 was initiated by the American side - grandfather Joe did this first thing on January 5, 2021, barely stepping on the threshold of the Oval Office). The Kremlin did not indicate the reason for the demarche, as well as new dates for possible negotiations.
And on December 2, at the Sary-Shagan test site north of Lake Balkhash (Republic of Kazakhstan), which is under the jurisdiction of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, a new missile of the Aerospace Forces anti-missile defense complex (the type of which has not yet been reported) was successfully launched, in during which an unknown Russian-made missile successfully hit a mock target, as told by the commander of the anti-missile defense formation of the Aerospace Forces, Major General Sergei Grabchuk. Let me remind you that this type of weapon can also be used against satellites (we demonstrated how this is done on November 15, 2021, by shooting down our own old satellite in a stationary orbit of 235 km with an A-470 Nudol rocket). All US and European partners' military satellites (as well as commercial ones serving the needs of the military) are within range of our missiles. On October 26, at a meeting of the UN General Assembly, our representative in this international organization announced the possibility of their destruction.
Russia will consider American commercial satellites as "legitimate targets" if they are used in the course of hostilities in Ukraine
- such a statement at the UN was made by Deputy Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry Konstantin Vorontsov.
In addition, Russia has multiplied the launch of its own military satellites into orbit - this year it has already launched 13 military satellites (three of which in the last three weeks), for comparison, last year we launched only five such satellites, and in 2020- m - four. At the same time, there is no need to shoot down Musk’s satellites or disable their optics with the help of our laser weapons, given their number (since May 2019, SpaceX has already sent more than 3,5 thousand of its devices into orbit), we can “put out » the global Starlink system even on the ground by affecting a key element of their system - satellite ground stations that interact with hundreds of satellites and thousands of user terminals. Stations are stationary, and there are much fewer of them than spacecraft and equipment for users. To ensure the operation of the system on the territory of an average European country, one to five stations are needed. Disabling one of them will turn off the Internet immediately over a large area, and the destruction of 5-10 stations can deprive an entire region of several states of communication. Modern laser-guided missiles and kamikaze drones make it possible to destroy such targets with certainty.
To effectively counteract the operation of satellite ground stations, their coordinates, data on which channels and providers provide the Internet, routing features, system IP addresses and other technical characteristics are needed. Radio engineering information is no less important: the design and purpose of antennas, operating frequencies, methods of signal modulation, etc. The information should be enough to develop a complete scenario of an operation in order to disrupt communications in a certain area. In this case, the attack can be not only armed. It can be a cyber attack or counteraction with the help of radio equipment (something similar already happened at the end of summer, when the connection provided by the good Mask to the warriors of light of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suddenly began to fail on the territory of Ukraine).
Our scientists note that, in general, Starlink is well protected from hackers. An exception may be gateways to third-party networks, the security of which is usually not so carefully controlled. At the same time, attacks using radio equipment are likely to be more effective. The source of interference must be placed above the station. Most likely, it can be placed in low or even suborbital orbit. However, its effect will be limited in time. When influencing satellites, the goal should be to disrupt the self-organization system of spacecraft, which can be done both from the ground and from space, Russian engineers say.
In order not to smear the technical aspects on the plate for a long time, I will only say that we will not break the Mask system (it is too well protected and can work autonomously, however, only in a narrow range), but we will greatly slow it down and affect the quality of the transmitted information, we can. And if we can, then we will do it (when we consider it necessary for ourselves).
In war as in war. Who did not hide - we are not to blame
Epigraph: "The goal of any war is peace on the terms of the winner" (Carl von Clausewitz)
We must be aware that on November 14 war was declared on us. And not by rogue Ukraine, but by the hegemon himself, he consistently checks the thickness of our red lines (the last time he did this was in the early morning of December 5, attacking our long-range strategic bomber airfields in Engels, Saratov Region and Dyagilevo with the help of Ukrainian Tu-141 Strizh drones Ryazan region; in both cases, both people and technique - three servicemen were killed, six were wounded, three aircraft carrying air-launched nuclear weapons were damaged by fragments - two Tu-95MS bears in Engels and one Tu-22M3 in Dyagilevo; which gives us the right to use, according to military doctrine, our nuclear weapons; it is clear that we will not do this in Ukraine, although some in the West, especially in London, really counted on this, but what we can very much do, I will say below).
Some across the ocean in military headquarters, people with very big stars in the Pentagon are very afraid of our winter offensive. And rightly they are afraid, because right now the very moment is coming when we can turn the tide of events with one blow, and with it the backbone of this fascist reptile that has crawled out of some dusty OUN closet. It has already happened that by January we have the peak of readiness of the troops, while our opponents in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now on the decline (I wrote about this in detail here). Their wave of mobilization waned after the losses incurred in the summer-autumn campaign (in the Kharkiv-Kherson, Krasnolimansk and Bakhmut operations - minus 100 thousand people. irretrievable losses), and we are expected to replenish (plus 318 thousand) after a partial military mobilization announced by Putin (of which 82 are already at the front). And in the future, according to the rate of replenishment of the mob. reserve, we are ahead of our opponents (if necessary, we have plus another 300 thousand bayonets every three months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have plus 35-40 thousand during the same time, they are not able to prepare more of their foreign training camps - they are not for such a war were sharpened).
In addition, we have an advantage in terms of technology, the allies of Nezalezhnaya have already exhausted their limits from warehouses (especially for ammunition of 122-mm and 155-mm calibers), it takes time to produce new weapons, which we should not give them, because since the days of the USSR, we have so much “iron” in warehouses that it will be enough for two more such wars. It’s a sin not to take advantage of this right now, when we and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in the opposite phase of readiness. And the gray-haired four-star Pentagon generals know about it. They know and are waiting with horror for the Russian winter offensive.
Epigraph: "The war is fought to victory and that's it" (Karl von Clausewitz)
According to their forecasts, it should begin within the next four to eight weeks. I dare to suggest that the direction of the main strike will be a strike from Belarus to Lutsk-Lviv and below, in order to cut off the supply routes of Western weapons to Ukraine. This will be the main direction of the strike, which does not exclude pinching strikes from east to west in the directions of Zaporozhye-Kryvyi Rih and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk and a diversionary strike on Sumy from the adjacent regions of the Russian Federation. General Armageddon, back in Syria, has established himself as a master of distracting strikes, you never know in advance where the main one will be struck. But Shoigu’s Sunday visit to Belarus and his meeting with Lukashenka and the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus indicate that the main blow will still be dealt from Belarus to Lutsk, the entire Belarusian transport and military infrastructure has already been prepared for this (both railway lines and automobile, and jump airfields). At the same time, the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus are unlikely to be involved, their purpose is to tie down the Poles, but everything else is in full combat readiness, otherwise the visit to Minsk would not have taken place on Sunday (that Shoigu has nothing else to do on a day off?). Everything is at a low start. I think it will start a week before the New Year (such a gift to Grandpa Joe from Putin for Catholic Christmas).
I dare to suggest that the winter offensive of the Russian Armed Forces will begin with the downing of a NATO satellite or several Musk satellites (but the latter is unlikely for the reasons indicated above) and a strike on high-voltage transformer substations (750 kW), balancing the load of three still operating Ukrainian nuclear power plants. As a result of the latter, the entire Square runs the risk of plunging into darkness for at least a week, with all the ensuing consequences. And when the lights are turned on, Russian tanks will already be in Lvov. I expect this between December 12 and 25, the Russians have everything ready, the strikes will be in three directions at once (divergent) from north to south and from east to west (everything except the southern flank, it will be quiet there) - an attack on Lutsk-Lviv , a blow to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, a blow to Zaporozhye-Kryvyi Rih, a blow to Sumy (the last distraction). It is clear that all this is my delusional fantasies, no one knows how it will actually be. And this is Surovikin's huge advantage, but the echelons with the new T-90M "Breakthrough" (Uralvagonzavod has already shipped 200 brand new cars from the assembly line) arriving to the front and to Belarus, as well as the T-14 Armata lit up in the Donbass, says that it will be very hot (and already in the near future).
Why do I think that everything will start with the downed NATO satellite, here the calculation is simple. We have been in a state of war with the United States since November 14 (even if it is not officially declared), the fact that this is so was evidenced by the attack of their Ukrainian wards on our airfields of long-range strategic aviation. And this is a casus belli, a reason not only for declaring war, but also for the use of our nuclear weapons, in accordance with our military doctrine. But it’s not for Ukraine to declare war (it’s enough for the SVO), and it’s not for Ukraine to use our nuclear weapons. The Yankees (or Britons) acted very cunningly here, using dense, still Soviet drones especially for this (so that no claims could be made against them). But the fact that these brainchildren of the Soviet military industry, if desired, can fly to Moscow and bomb the Kremlin, everyone has already understood, as well as the fact that they have undergone fine-tuning and pre-flight tuning in NATO weapons workshops (by the way, NATO specialists were also involved in the navigation of these dreadnoughts, using its own GPS system for this). We need to somehow respond to this, you must admit that a missile attack on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in this case will somehow be too small. But a downed NATO satellite will be a completely normal symmetrical response.
A month ago (on October 27, specifically), John Kirby, US National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator, responding to a statement by our Foreign Office spokesman, Konstantin Vorontsov, that US space "pseudo-civilian infrastructure could become a legitimate target for our retaliation" (which I cited above) , said that the United States in the event of such an attack would respond "appropriately" (although without specifying how).
Any attack on American infrastructure will be dealt with appropriately and appropriately. The United States will hold Russia accountable for any such attack if it occurs.
– told reporters the representative of the US National Security Council.
NATO officials traditionally did not talk aloud about specific responses to a possible strike, but referred to the speech of the head of the alliance Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, who, referring to all types of threats from Russia, said that:
The extent of the response will depend on the nature of the attack. And we will not give our potential adversaries the privilege of determining where the boundary lies for the application of the Fifth Paragraph.
Former NATO Assistant Secretary General Jamie Shea was more outspoken:
Any Russian attack against satellites used by NATO members in space would be considered an act of aggression that would lead to the implementation of paragraph 5. Other NATO allies may call for this as well.
For those who do not know, I will remind you that according to American military doctrine, this is a pretext for starting a war with the use of nuclear weapons. Well, that's great, let's see how "strong balls" you have. Because an attack on our nuclear strategists is also a pretext for declaring war, and also with the use of nuclear weapons. If the Ukrainian UAVs were aimed at the target with the help of your military satellites, then why don't we shoot them down?! And what “strong balls” you have, we already saw when your Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, together with your national security adviser Jake Sullivan, decided at night in pajamas how to react to a Polish tractor destroyed by a Ukrainian air defense missile. Despite the fact that both hate each other, they had to urgently figure out how to avoid the application of the 5th article of the NATO Charter on Collective Security (and really, it’s not the idiot grandfather Joe who should be involved in solving such serious issues?!). Then, out of harm's way, they decided that it was a Ukrainian missile, for which they even had to shout at their Kyiv ward, who, having gone over with fly agarics (due to the lack of a Colombian potion), demanded a nuclear war from the allies. Then you got rid of the war, let's see how it will be this time.
From a technical point of view, we can do it. The Ukrainian armed forces use the Starlink Internet satellite network (about 3500 active devices), in addition, they have access to data from Iceye radar sounding satellites (21 devices in orbit). Maxar satellites (4 pieces) are also actively shooting the regions of Ukraine in the interests of the US military, some of their images are also available to Ukrainians. At the same time, the quality of their shooting is such that in the pictures you can see separately standing people. Judging by the published press releases, Maxar is actively filming the war zone. All of the listed companies are de jure commercial, so Russia could make claims against any of them in the spirit of Vorontsov's statement, although all of them, one way or another, interact with the US government.
In August, another Kiev clown (with a difficult Kaveen past), who claims to be the president in the future (if, of course, Ukraine remains, which we have serious doubts about), a certain Sergiy Prytula announced the acquisition of one of the satellites of the Finnish company Iceye with the right to access its archival materials (naturally, in the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Iceye is a private Finnish company that has been supplying its data to the Pentagon since 2021 using its US subsidiary. The company currently has 21 Earth-sensing radar satellites in orbit, one of which is on permanent lease from Ukraine. These satellites make it possible to observe the surface of the planet with a detail of up to 25 cm, and they are not disturbed by clouds and night time.
The Pentagon also uses and shares with the Armed Forces more satellite images from Planet (about 179 nano-class and 20 micro-class devices). This American company manages as many as three families of satellites. Five can shoot with a resolution of 5 meters in several spectral ranges, 179 ultra-small devices also shoot with a resolution of 3-5 meters, but in a day they are able to get a composite image of the entire earth's land, and another 20 satellites shoot with high detail up to 1 meter. Such a gigantic fleet of satellites allows for regular monitoring of selected areas of the Earth.
Given the large number of commercial satellites listed above and our modest capabilities (in terms of ground-based anti-satellite missiles), the few Maxar satellites could be our priority targets, since they are the most expensive and provide the most detailed images. Russia is not in a position to encroach on the "mega-constellations" of small and ultra-small satellites, of which there will be more than 3500 pieces in total - there will not be enough missiles. Whether General Surovikin will risk launching his winter offensive from a downed NATO satellite, we will all see in the near future in real time. I do not exclude such a possibility as a symmetrical response to the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on our airfields of strategic long-range aviation.
Carthage must be destroyed! Ukraine should forever disappear from the political map of the world
We must be aware that there will no longer be any negotiations with Kyiv and a forced shameful treacherous truce with its command. At the end of hostilities, Ukraine as a state entity will disappear forever from political world maps. If in March 2022, after the Istanbul negotiations with gopniks in tracksuits, this territorial misunderstanding could still become part of the Russian Federation as a union state, like Belarus, then nine months later this is no longer a question.
The Rubicon was crossed on October 8 after a sabotage on the Crimean bridge followed by a Russian missile attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on October 10. Now Putin will never repeat the mistakes of the Bolsheviks and will not leave Ukraine in the form of a national pseudo-unitary entity, even as an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation (such as Tatarstan or Bashkortostan), now it will enter the Russian Federation only in the form of regions-subjects of the Russian Federation (as a result, they will become over a hundred).
The fact that this will be so can be judged at least by the process of decommunization, which is only gaining momentum with each new shelling of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine by Russian missiles and drones (Putin said: "You wanted decommunization? We will arrange it for you!" - Putin's words are rarely out of business). The second confirmation of this factor is the process of the disappearance of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) and its absorption by the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), the ugly brainchild of Poroshenko, launched by the current drug-addicted vicegerent of Ukraine, the successor of the affairs of a drunken alcoholic. As a result, both children of Ukrainian independence will disappear, and the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) will take their place, as it should be.
Who owns the resources - owns the world
In Europe, the changes in the ending of the database in Ukraine will be much cooler. Predictions are hopeless, but I'll try anyway. By 2024 and the end of hostilities in Ukraine (of course, by our victory), the European Union as a supranational international entity will begin to fall apart, the 27 states that make it up, deprived of access to cheap Russian energy resources, driven by thoughts solely of their own survival, will begin to scatter to their national apartments, cursing and quarreling among themselves (sharing furniture, pans and other immovable junk).
All this, eating up the remnants of European industry and exploiting the European intellectual and financial resources that have defected to them, will be watched by the United States, which by that time will already be ruled by the Republicans (I do not exclude that Donald Trump). The vile Britain will also try to pick up the remnants of the pan-European pie, uniting around itself the most rabid representatives of the split EU (Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and maybe also some of the Nordic countries - Denmark, Sweden and Finland), but it’s not at all a fact that she will succeed, because she will not be able to offer them anything but hatred for the Russian Federation.
But the Russian Federation will have everything for this - both the resources and the military force, which, after the destruction of Ukraine, as a territorial misunderstanding, everyone will have to reckon with. Moreover, NATO will also be in the Bose by 2025, after the States successfully exit it. And this is exactly what will happen, because the States will not have any other tasks in Europe after eating the EU. Why do they need this starving, poor old woman? Their interests will gradually move to the east, to the Indo-Pacific region (ITR) and the countries of Southeast Asia (Southeast Asia). There, specifically for this, since September 15, 2021, a military bloc was created, which received the name AUKUS according to the countries that founded it, modestly calling itself a defense alliance. I do not rule out that by that time several more countries will join it, primarily Japan and South Korea, after which everyone will be able to forget about NATO with relief.
Why should the United States carry this unbearable burden? That's right - there is no need, down with him. The war will unfold for resources and markets, and by that time Europe will have neither one nor the other. By definition, it did not have resources, and it will cease to be a sales market as its population becomes impoverished, which, in its struggle for life, will soon risk switching to pasture.
Putin promised that the most important and unpredictable decade awaits us - and so, he did not deceive, in 10 years you will not recognize the political map of the world. A number of states will disappear from it, others will unite for their own survival. At the same time, I do not completely exclude the disappearance of the UN as a supranational entity, which has recently lost its purpose, that for which it was created. Something must appear instead, what - I don't know yet. And the beginning of this was laid on February 24, 2022.
This concludes the report on the topic. Sorry for going beyond its scope by drawing some distant perspective. But it is always better to know how everything will end, so as not to ask stupid questions and not take rash actions. Of course, it is better for the Supreme Commander to do this himself (even before the start of the NWO), without introducing a worm of doubt into the souls of his citizens, but, apparently, not everything can be said, and the time for these words, apparently, has not yet come. Nobody holds me by the jacket. That's all. Your Mr. Z