Embargo on Russian oil may be more effective than expected


Moscow believed that the disruptions to exports and threats to cut production initiated by sanctions and the embargo would provoke new shocks in the world oil markets, so strong that the Western economicsalready affected by high inflation will experience new pressures, perhaps too painful to keep them political solidarity. However, the Western coalition is probably ready to sacrifice itself, or rather Washington Brussels, just to complete what they started.


At the same time, Saudi Arabia, one of the most influential members of OPEC, may for some time be less inclined to offer Moscow a lifeline of help and support, as it considers the expansion of military cooperation between Russia and Iran dangerous for its future. Perhaps even more dangerous than the veiled containment of Israel through mutual assistance from Moscow and Tehran.

Western experts from well-known analytical agencies and consulting companies are changing their optimistic forecasts to negative ones. The gradual decline in exports and revenues will have a profound effect on the Russian oil industry. Reduction of sales markets with simultaneous loss of key of technologies development and production will have an impact on important industries of the Russian Federation in the very near future, experts believe.

The most unpleasant thing for Russia in the West-imposed oil embargo is its higher efficiency than previously predicted. The thing is that European countries will pay their price with crisis and inflation. This determination (to harm ourselves) was hard to predict and imagine in reality. Until recently, this calculation was some form of Moscow's hope that the West would not dare to introduce new painful restrictions. But, alas, the coalition took this step, so the positive forecasts are in jeopardy.
  • Photos used: pixabay.com
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 7 December 2022 08: 33
    +8
    So this is a positive outlook for Russia. If the EU is ready

    its price crisis and inflation will pay European countries. This determination (to hurt ourselves)

    then Moscow's hopes were fully justified. The deindustrialization of Europe is exactly what is required at this stage. The losses of the EU countries are already predicted in the trillions of euros. And about 10 trillion more are planned to be paid for the creation of a "European army". Over the next few years.
    1. aslanxnumx Offline aslanxnumx
      aslanxnumx (Aslan) 7 December 2022 19: 58
      +1
      If the leadership of Russia needed the de-industrialization of Europe, they would not supply gas and oil. They would cut off the entire Baltic, otherwise it’s nothing personal, we just drive everything to grab something.
    2. vikas Offline vikas
      vikas (Sergei ) 9 December 2022 16: 40
      0
      ... there is a flaw, this is their (EU) initiative, from 2010 to build everything on China.
      And they would make peace with the states, but the EU is always an enemy
  2. Irek Offline Irek
    Irek (Paparazzi Kazan) 7 December 2022 08: 43
    +7
    It was the first round and it ended not in favor of Geysoyuz...

  3. Russian Community (Russian Community) 7 December 2022 09: 00
    +6
    laughing laughing it is believed in the West and they fantasize something there. The West has not been able to analyze real life for a long time. The West thinks that it is the navel of the Earth. It is not Russia that is losing the West ... the West is losing Russia.
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 7 December 2022 09: 25
    +6
    This determination (to harm ourselves) was hard to predict and imagine in reality.

    And what is there to imagine, everything has long been awake.
    The EU has been actively engaged in suicide for more than 10 years, from the active introduction, through the prosecution of 18 EU member states (!), the third energy package, and, given the green theme, even more.
    The US and the WB planted alternatively gifted characters like Scholz, Burbock and other "Slav brothers" and Tribalts into the leadership of the EU countries precisely with the aim of weakening and deindustrializing Europe, making them look like a country - misunderstandings 404.
    And the Saudis are still behaving surprisingly correctly in relation to Russia. Like other Arabs. In November, the KSA reduced oil supplies to China, leaving Russia in first place. Apparently specifically with the expectation of taking the place of Russia in the supply of oil to Europe. And they are clearly not in the mood to dump there.
    Even Scholz and Macron have come to terms with the true role of the US in this process. So a revolt against the USA is brewing. And the consequences can be very different. As options:
    Moving of some productions not to the USA, but to the Russian Federation. What I wrote about a long time ago.
    Complete surrender by Europe of Ukraine to Russia, with the humblest request to do anything there, just to ensure the supply of pipeline gas through the GTSU. And I wrote about it too.
    They just have no other choice.
    1. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 10 December 2022 20: 52
      0
      You may not understand, but that is why there is a war going on. For Russia to continue to provide cheap gratuitous energy resources. And if not, then the rates will rise all the more. And the "surrender" of Ukraine by the West has never been heard anywhere else, except on this site. But maybe they will "surrender", unless Russia raises rates even higher to "nowhere else."
  5. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 7 December 2022 10: 08
    +3
    Revenues from oil and gas allow Russia to maintain a huge army of idlers - politicians, officials, political scientists, security guards, merchants, resellers, managers and other sports and near-cultural environment.
    When the existence of a country is at stake, keeping idlers is a crime.
    Give embargo!
    1. Victor M. Offline Victor M.
      Victor M. (Victor) 7 December 2022 11: 01
      0
      You didn't confuse Norway with Russia?
    2. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 7 December 2022 17: 03
      +1
      Previously, when oil prices were falling, Moscow was in good health, although the rest were not happy either.
    3. Vyacheslav Krylov (Vyacheslav Krylov) 8 December 2022 13: 23
      -1
      Quote: prior
      When the existence of a country is at stake, keeping idlers is a crime.

      Where do we put the idlers?
      Retraining as janitors (and they don’t want to), in the Gulag (and they are sorry, people are still), on the street with the payment of unemployment benefits after good money (and they wave flags and chant in the square) ...
      We won't cut down the vineyards! Look for humane transformation options and come up with a proposal again. Consider.
      1. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
        Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 8 December 2022 17: 14
        0
        Vyacheslav! Vlad voiced the problem, you offer a solution, in my opinion, the payment of benefits is not the worst solution, and as for chanting and waving flags, there is a law on the procedure for holding public events, and officials are well aware of how loyal it is to unauthorized events.
        1. Vyacheslav Krylov (Vyacheslav Krylov) 8 December 2022 18: 16
          0
          Quote: Sergei Fonov
          Vlad raised the issue

          Vlad did not voice the problem.
          It was reported that Putin's rating VV 75%. Therefore, every fifth - "against".
          It can be argued that the number of "against" will increase due to the dismissed "loafers". It will be ... so much %. Summing up, we get: "popular protest" will weigh so many millions of people. And this should be distributed proportionally among the cities with "millionaires".
          Here the adversary will draw joy!
          25% + heuristic 20% = 45%.
          Zyuganov is a gift of fate.
          1. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
            Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 8 December 2022 20: 46
            0
            Vyacheslav! I don’t remember exactly how many officials in our country, either 2,5 million, or 3,5, and even if 3 million are fired, this is a little more than 2% of 140 million, and your 75% support + 45% against it is already 120%. Do not thicken the colors.
            1. Vyacheslav Krylov (Vyacheslav Krylov) 8 December 2022 20: 50
              0
              Quote: Sergei Fonov
              Revenues from oil and gas allow Russia to maintain a huge army of idlers - politicians, officials, political scientists, security guards, merchants, resellers, managers and other sports and near-cultural environment.

              Please recalculate again "taking into account the newly discovered circumstances."
              1. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
                Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 8 December 2022 21: 48
                +1
                Everything is considered very simple For the president - 75%, against - 25% of 140 million 25% - this is 35 million, including those who have not decided + children, 105 million are those 75% who support the president's course, you get it, that there may be 45% against the president, and in numbers it is 67 million, and not the 35 million that are in reality, I repeat that among these 35 million, not everyone is against the president. Please don't scare us.
                1. Vyacheslav Krylov (Vyacheslav Krylov) 8 December 2022 22: 21
                  0
                  Quote: Sergei Fonov
                  Please don't scare us.

                  So I'm scared myself. Thanks for the count. But humans are not AI.
                  I like the numbers of those who will not turn their backs on Vladimir Putin under any circumstances. Who are they, what drives them? And all the rest ... You probably know better their behavior in the conditioned future.
                  1. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
                    Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 8 December 2022 22: 43
                    0
                    I did not predict anyone's behavior, either in the future or in the present, both supporters and opponents of the president, but simply tried to prove to you with numbers that there is no reason to panic, the figures for supporting the president's course, both in percentage terms and in absolute numbers, impress me and are quite satisfied.
                    1. Vyacheslav Krylov (Vyacheslav Krylov) 9 December 2022 02: 21
                      0
                      Quote: Sergei Fonov
                      The figures of support for the president's course, both in percentage terms and in absolute figures, impress me and quite suit me.

                      And the figures of support for the president's course, both in percentage terms and in absolute figures, are impressive and quite satisfactory to me too - did I write correctly? Now the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation has become happy and will receive a bonus for successful work for explaining to the population the "party line" on oil, for example.

                      Quote: Sergei Fonov
                      I just tried to prove to you with numbers that there is no reason to panic

                      You did not try in vain, you really proved with numbers that there is no reason to panic.
                      Is there a reason to bear the thought that the president is satisfied with these figures?
                      For example, somehow I don't trust survey statistics, it's unmotivated. But this is an isolated case. Will you neglect?
                      1. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
                        Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 9 December 2022 19: 47
                        +1
                        Vyacheslav! I’m not a censor, and it’s up to you to decide what to write, earlier I just published my opinion that your calculations do not correspond to the figures you gave, you didn’t write about trust and distrust in these figures, and about the party’s line on oil, what are you talking about ? However, to believe or not to believe the polls is up to you, because in all polls there is an error, all the best.
  6. Victor M. Offline Victor M.
    Victor M. (Victor) 7 December 2022 10: 59
    +3
    It's not evening yet, but already there are articles shouting "everything is lost." And all with the reference "probably". This is not an analysis. Any old woman on the bench will pull this off.
  7. Anton Kuzmin Offline Anton Kuzmin
    Anton Kuzmin (Anton Kuzmin) 7 December 2022 15: 41
    -2
    Quote: boriz
    And I wrote about it too.
    They just have no other choice.

    Well, the titles of articles and links are not fate?
  8. Kapany3 Offline Kapany3
    Kapany3 7 December 2022 19: 33
    -1
    Quote: prior
    Revenues from oil and gas allow Russia to maintain a huge army of idlers - politicians, officials, political scientists, security guards, merchants, resellers, managers and other sports and near-cultural environment.
    When the existence of a country is at stake, keeping idlers is a crime.
    Give embargo!

    Well, poz, will you support them yourself? But you have to keep...
  9. SP-Ang Offline SP-Ang
    SP-Ang (Sergei) 7 December 2022 19: 39
    -1
    Quote: boriz
    Even Scholz and Macron have come to terms with the true role of the US in this process.

    You have a mistake. These figures are the conductors of US policy in Europe. And they won't do anything against it.
    At the moment, it is important for the states to drag over important industries that they do not have, or little, and improve their financial condition against the backdrop of global inflation.
    Leading European manufacturing businessmen can say a few words. The current situation is clearly not to their liking. We expect them to get into politics.
  10. Eugene Zaboy Offline Eugene Zaboy
    Eugene Zaboy (Eugene Zaboy) 8 December 2022 08: 13
    0
    But, alas, the coalition took this step, so positive forecasts are in jeopardy

    Thanks to "this step" Russia received, without a trade war with the Arab countries, new markets. Markets that are much more capacious, promising and extensive than the EU market and the author talks about risks. Of course, during the transition period, problems and a slight drop in profits and export volumes cannot be avoided, but in the future this will be compensated without a doubt. Russia has begun to widely apply the strategy of selling oil around the world and this will bring positive results. Today there is a need to expand and systematically upgrade the tanker fleet, which is produced in-house rather than leased as before. These requests will have a positive impact on shipbuilding and mechanical engineering. There was a need for insurance companies that insure maritime transport. In fact, the industrial revolution in Russia begins, and not the threat of the collapse of the economy. The arrival of Russian oil companies in India, China and other Asian countries will most likely end with the appearance of distribution networks and filling stations of our companies there, and this is a completely different level. At the same time, Western oil companies will lose a significant part of the small wholesale market in Asia due to non-competitiveness. That is why the EU and the US are doing their best to prevent Russia's penetration into Asia today. England will suffer the most.
  11. bratchanin3 Offline bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 (Gennady) 8 December 2022 10: 26
    +3
    Yes, where modern Russia can compete with the former USSR, it was the leaders of the USSR who could survive and develop. Modern liberals can only squander.
    1. Vdars Offline Vdars
      Vdars (Victor) 8 December 2022 15: 55
      0
      The moral of this fable is to remove the liberals from power as soon as possible!