Russia will have to choose between three scenarios for the future of Ukraine


Various options for a possible post-war reconstruction of Ukraine cause the most fierce debate, because everyone sees them in their own way. Give one a pro-Russian federal Ukraine, while others generally insist on the complete elimination of the statehood of the Independent, so as not to have problems with it in the future. Still others only chuckle, quite rightly pointing out that the bear should first be killed, and only then its skin should be divided.


Each of these points of view has the right to exist. But still, I think, the hunters should agree on the division of the skin even before the hunt, otherwise, no matter how it happens. Then, perhaps, in the tenth month of the NWO, there would not have been such a total misunderstanding in society, how it should eventually end. In this publication, I would like to give a more detailed answer to a respected colleague who reasonably expressed doubts about the possibility of building some kind of pro-Russian "Anti-Ukraine", about the expediency of creating which we reasoned earlier.

In the personal opinion of the author of these lines, there are only three basic scenarios for the completion of a special military operation in Ukraine - very bad, acceptable and intermediate. Let's consider them in more detail.

Completion of the special operation



Recall that on February 24, 2022, President Putin formulated the need for an SVO as follows:

In accordance with Article 51 of Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the sanction of the Federation Council of Russia and in pursuance of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22 this year with the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic, I decided to conduct a special military operation. Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide by the Kyiv regime for eight years. And for this, we will strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous, bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.

That is, the main goal of the special operation is the liberation of Donbass, which was subsequently repeatedly emphasized by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. True, in the future, the need to help the inhabitants of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions was added to the protection of the DPR and LPR. So, let's imagine that the Kremlin really decides to confine itself to the liberation of the DPR and LPR, as well as the retention of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov in order to preserve the land transport corridor to Crimea. What will happen next?

To imagine how this can happen, it is enough to recall the experience of implementing the Minsk agreements and apply them in the new reality. Russian troops will be prohibited from advancing further along the Left Bank, perhaps even responding to artillery shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The RF Armed Forces will continue to fortify the borders of the new Russian regions, digging ditches along them and filling them with piranhas. Those who will demand to liberate the whole of Ukraine, the "guards" will be sent with a machine gun near Kyiv. Propaganda will talk about what new "wunderwaffes" are coming into service with us, which will be enough for the rapid defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What is all this for?

For the sake of signing another conditional "Minsk-3", which will tie the hands of Russia and give Ukraine time to prepare for a war for the "liberation" of Donbass, the Sea of ​​Azov and Crimea. When will the Kyiv regime go on the offensive next?

I think it will be in January-March 2024, when the next presidential elections are to be held in our country.
You can be 100% sure that everything will definitely not go smoothly. Surely, Western partners will bring Ukrainian militants to Moscow on the eve of the elections, taking into account the unsuccessful experience of Belomaidan in 2020. They say that they did not succeed there only because some of the Kyiv curators stole the money allocated to pay for the services of "activists" who were supposed to turn Minsk upside down. In 2024, the Anglo-Saxons will hardly repeat this mistake. And then any options are possible, from moderate to the most pessimistic, up to the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Crimea, and then their entry into the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, if the control system in Russia turns out to be disorganized as a result of the unrest.

I really want that the Kremlin will not follow this path, which is deadly dangerous for our country.

Operation Liquidation



The second scenario is positive and highly desirable for the joint future of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples. If the Kremlin makes a final and irrevocable decision to liquidate the Ukraine project as a Russophobic Nazi quasi-state under the external control of the Anglo-Saxons, then the main blow of the RF Armed Forces should come from the territory of Western Belarus along the Right Bank.

As we detail disassembled earlier, this will immediately nullify Warsaw's claims to Volyn and Galicia, as well as cut off the main routes for the supply of NATO weapons for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After that, the fall of the Kyiv regime will be a matter of time. However, for such an operation in Russia, it will be necessary to carry out at least two more waves of mobilization, in winter and spring, of 300 reservists each, as well as to arm and train them. This is not an easy task, but it will be an application for a decisive Victory, which we all need so much.

We are waiting for news on the topic of mobilization in order to make some forecasts.

Operation "Donbasization"



The third scenario is intermediate between the first two and therefore the most realistic. As part of it, the liberation of the Donbass and the retention of the Sea of ​​\u3b\u2014bAzov take place, however, no “Minsk-24” is signed. There comes a state of neither peace nor war, when the Kremlin is constantly calling Ukraine to peace, and Kyiv is consistently preparing for a war for the Donbass, the Sea of ​​Azov and the Crimea. And then the logic of what happened in Donbas from the referendums in 2022 to February XNUMX, XNUMX begins to operate again.

Recall that, despite the regime of the Minsk agreements, in 2015 the DPR militia had to take Debaltseve. Otherwise, it was simply impossible, because in this city the Armed Forces of Ukraine formed a strike group, which at any moment could go on the offensive. Within the same logic, Russia will have to move the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as far as possible from the borders of its undisputed and new regions. You just have to liberate Kharkov and Sumy, Izyum, Kupyansk and Balakleya. In the future, this will pull Poltava and Pavlograd along with it, where the enemy troops will roll back. In other words, Russia will have to liberate the Left Bank of Ukraine in order to ensure the security of its territory, defining the Dnieper as an insurmountable barrier to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. About the fact that this is our minimum program, we reasoned earlier.

The question arises, what will be the status of this liberated territory then? To join Kharkiv, Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk regions along the left bank to the Russian Federation?

This can be done, but then the Russian border will legally again approach Ukraine, and you will have to somehow ensure the safety of the entire Left Bank from shelling and attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Right Bank. Not an easy task. The logic of all the previous experience of Donbass suggests that the Kremlin may prefer to keep the liberated territories under its control, but without joining them to Russia, as a “buffer territory”. Cynically, however, this has already been happening for 8 years with the DPR and LPR, which de facto were a kind of “shield” covering Crimea from the offensive activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

That is, in any case section Ukraine on the Right-bank and Left-bank. The realization of the need for this decision may come to decision makers quickly or slowly, but in the end, most likely, it will happen. Then the following logical question will arise: why don't these territories along the Left Bank, which were not part of the Russian Federation, instead of hanging in an indefinite status, turn into a prototype of New Ukraine, pro-Russian? Why not proclaim the Ukrainian Federation on the Left Bank as the legal successor of pre-Maidan Ukraine, and refuse to recognize the Zelensky regime? Wouldn't such a move be more politically rational and at the same time merciful to the inhabitants of the Left Bank, so that they would not find themselves in the "gray zone" for an indefinitely long time?

As for the principles of the formation of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, which will have to liberate the Right Bank together with the Russian one, the People's Militia of the LDNR could act as its core. Everyone there is fighting not only with Russian, but also with Ukrainian passports. Someone will remain to defend the Donbass, the rest could become the backbone for the formation of liberation forces from among the Ukrainians themselves. How to attract people from other regions of the Left Bank and forced emigration to UDAR? At a minimum, salaries at the level of Russian contractors and understandable ultimate goals.

In general, it is the third scenario that looks the most realistic because of its half-heartedness. A special operation is definitely a long time, but the very logic of what is happening will lead us approximately to what we considered above in the text.
25 comments
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2022 14: 12
    0
    Why not proclaim the Ukrainian Federation on the Left Bank as the legal successor of pre-Maidan Ukraine, and refuse to recognize the Zelensky regime?

    What then to do with Kherson and Zaporozhye? Leave as part of Russia? Or join the Ukrainian Federation"? If we are talking about the "successor of pre-Maidan Ukraine", then the accession of 4 new subjects to Russia looks like a mistake.

    Access to the Dnieper and ensuring the security of the Left Bank puts the status of Kyiv on the agenda. He's on the Dnieper. If the globe of Ukraine does not lie to me ...
    1. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
      Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 3 December 2022 16: 10
      -2
      Kherson is on the right bank, you should forget about it.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2022 17: 17
        +1
        Just about Kherson should not be forgotten. I can't imagine how Russia can "forget" about a Russian city. Or will the banners of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions be carried out of the hall of the Council of Federations?
        Maps of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions



        There are a lot of things on the right bank.

        The war continues and there is no end in sight.
  2. lance Offline lance
    lance 3 December 2022 16: 11
    -1
    in Ukraine, pro-Russian, there will be three regions. guess what?
  3. Vlad Sirs Offline Vlad Sirs
    Vlad Sirs (Sirius NVL) 3 December 2022 16: 16
    -2
    I see the first scenario as real, with less negative for the Russian Federation, the Big Deal cannot be ruled out either.
  4. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 3 December 2022 16: 17
    +1
    Sergei's commitment to the idea of ​​the Left Bank is understandable and respectful. Indeed, a good intermediate solution on the way to the Elbe rivers and, as it is, in Italy - the Adige. After all, citing the goals outlined by the GDP before the SVO, one should not forget about his December ultimatum to staff members.
    True, there is one but: while the dollar is in force, you can only tune in to a wide step to the west, and do it only when the ruble yuan reigns))
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 3 December 2022 17: 24
    -2
    The option "completion of the SVO" is rejected because of the hypothetical Maidan in Moscow in 2024, as if something depends on the existence of Ukraine in this regard.
    The possibilities of the Maidan in Moscow directly depend on the main organizers of such scenarios, and they are not sitting in Kyiv. The reality of such a scenario directly depends on the social tension in the Russian Federation, and on the nature and mass character of mobilization - not least. For which the author stands up, campaigning for the "liquidation" option, in which he also wants to maximize the risks of the start of a third world war, because he sees our troops directly on the border with NATO member states.
    The message is clear - with such risks, social tension in the Russian Federation should intensify even more.
    And finally, in the "Donbassization" variant, the author wants the conquered territories to suffer in the same way as the Donbass, all these 8 years, causing bewilderment among the majority of Russians, as it was before the recognition of the LDNR and the beginning of the NWO. At the same time, the regime in Kyiv remains combat-ready, and the burden of war still hangs on the Russian Federation, as in such an "unacceptable" option for the author as the completion of the NWO. Residents of the liberated territories will not fight - they are not motivated by years of shelling, like the inhabitants of the LDNR, the propaganda of Kyiv, which they have been watered all these years, has not disappeared from them. That is why they are not being mobilized now.
    The only, fourth option is to cut off central Ukraine from the western one, and squeeze it economically and militarily, seeking political guarantees and regime change. If at the same time a quasi-state is created in Galicia, this will already be a headache for the Kyiv regime.
  7. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) 3 December 2022 18: 07
    +2
    Unfortunately, the author does not understand that the entire NWO with Ukraine is not Putin's main goal, but a secondary one.
    The main goal is a deal on NATO and the so-called bringing the EU to a deal on European security.
    If only in Ukraine there was a case, then they would not be trampled around Donetsk for a whole year.
    There would be no push-pull near Artyomovsk, etc.
    All that is happening is forcing the EU to make a deal.
    Ukraine is just a bargaining chip.
    Putin has marked new territories and is again looking for a deal.
    If they don't agree to a deal, then there will be an offensive and a seizure and referendums on the left bank.
    And they will become regions of Russia.
    And then Putin will again wait for a deal.
    And so on until the EU agrees to a New European Security Treaty with NATO retreating.
    How it will all end - God knows.
    Or peace or Armageddon.
    And Ukraine is just about nothing.
    People feel sorry for all sides.
    They die for geopolitical schemes, redistribution, stupidity and ambition, etc.
    1. Alexey Lan Online Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 3 December 2022 21: 51
      0
      I fully support the comment. If we recall the prehistory of the NWO, then in the summer they sent proposals from the United States and NATO along the red lines. In December 2021, an ultimatum was actually sent, which ended with the recognition of the Donbass republics and the beginning of the NWO. In March-April, negotiations took place that ended in nothing, as a result of which Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson became part of Russia. So we are waiting for a deal.
    2. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
      ivan2022 (ivan2022) 4 December 2022 14: 55
      +1
      I doubt that you know "Putin's plans and goals" ....... If the president of the country is not a member of any political party, but came to power simply because Yeltsin recommended him 23 years ago, I would say that I nothing is known about his plans.
      Non-partisan president, THIS IS MORE NONSSESS!! Which is not possible anywhere in the world except Russia.

      By the way, about the shelling of Donetsk ..... It is unlikely that Russia gains any points in "deals" from these shelling ..... Rather, I admit that the Armed Forces simply do not have non-nuclear means to destroy the Avdiivka fortified area.

      If only because 80 years ago the Red Army used air bombs with warheads of 2 tons and mortars of 280 mm caliber for similar purposes. And the German FAA had warheads of 1 ton, against the current 400 kg of the modern Iskander ..... And the modern fortified area is a stronger structure than what they could build 80 years ago.
      This last circumstance is the very thing that we have definitely achieved in 20 years of "getting up from our knees."
  8. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 3 December 2022 19: 42
    +3
    I really want that the Kremlin will not follow this path, which is deadly dangerous for our country.

    That's just what is bad for the country is good for the Kremlin and those nouveaux riches who support it. So Minsk -3 is very likely, especially on this topic you can not only return the blocked, but also earn some money by selling the Motherland one more time.
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 4 December 2022 16: 21
      +2
      The enemy does not stop, slipping us these "Minsk - 1, 2, 3 ..." with the hands of their proteges. He stops us in his own interests when he needs it, and goes further according to his Plan.
      Don't expect him to give it up. He wants our death and our resources. We need to be destroyed by the hands of Europe, and Europe itself should be so weakened by this that it would “lie down” under the States without resistance, becoming their industrial appendage.
      Without getting dirty in anyone's blood, destroying Russia by proxy, attributing everything to it, and not having guilt before their vassals, having appropriated our resources and the industry of Europe, reigning on two continents, and rewriting the history of the world without us, the Anglo-Saxons will become even more powerful and will be able to calmly think about China
      1. sap Offline sap
        sap (Alex) 5 December 2022 08: 18
        +1
        Can not argue! More realistic than the article itself.
  9. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 4 December 2022 00: 18
    0
    The grouping of troops in Belarus is not for utopia (attack on Lutsk, Lvov). We will release by regions and start with Cherkassy with a dissecting throw from the territory of Belarus. Probably in the spring, when the crests will have Stockholm syndrome.
    1. gene1 Offline gene1
      gene1 (Gennady) 7 December 2022 19: 48
      0
      I'll get better - Chernihiv instead of Cherkasy
  10. depavel Offline depavel
    depavel (Pavel Pavlovich) 4 December 2022 05: 10
    +1
    Strange, I'm not a renegade, I took the oath like most Soviet citizens. But I am not "my own", I, a Russian, am one of those who are abandoned. That is, the question is raised of not leaving "our" Russians in historical Red Rus', Transcarpathian Rus', and somewhere nearby. Status and "Cucumber Law", worked out in the Western regions of Ukraine, that is, cucumber in brine will be salted, and pickled in marinade. Even Medvedev can understand this! Status without a vote can be determined for a period of time, bandied for at least 30 years, the same at least 30 years as a protectorate. What's the question? Looking back "how the West will judge us."
  11. Alexander Popov Offline Alexander Popov
    Alexander Popov (Alexander Popov) 4 December 2022 07: 43
    +6
    Russia will have to choose between three scenarios for the future of Ukraine

    With such an NWO, soon Russia will need to choose scenarios for its existence, and not Ukraine.
  12. alexander m_2 Offline alexander m_2
    alexander m_2 (Alexander) 4 December 2022 09: 53
    +1
    Judging by the behavior of our leadership, the third option is the most plausible. Unfortunately.
  13. alex-cn Offline alex-cn
    alex-cn (alexey bakharev) 4 December 2022 10: 30
    0
    In any case, any remaining part of modern Ukraine will constantly shell and, at least on trifles, crap ... And how to get rid of this, I can’t imagine it well ... maybe, indeed, tear Ukraine into 3 parts ... Russian, neutral and western one, but I'm afraid that in this case the western one will instantly become an unofficial Polish province, with all the consequences ...
  14. Only honestly Offline Only honestly
    Only honestly (Alex) 4 December 2022 12: 02
    +3
    For some reason, we do not mention Transnistria, which must be connected to the Crimea or the Kherson region by a land corridor. This means that Odessa should be a territory controlled by Russia. Otherwise, NATO ships will enter this port. As a result, it turns out that in the south Ukraine should be cut off from the Black Sea. The entire trade turnover by the sea fleet will be carried out under the control of the Russian authorities. You can't bring many trucks by land. Even if all these conditions are met, the Anglo-Saxons will not leave Ukraine alone and will constantly incite it to Russia. It makes no sense to believe even the signed agreements with Ukraine. There is only one conclusion - the complete denazification of Ukraine. But how to do this with 300-400 thousand bayonets of the Russian army? It's incredible.
  15. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 4 December 2022 12: 45
    +2
    Unfortunately, these options, and the question itself, resemble the skin of an unkilled bear, for which hunters are taken, for whom the process of sharing is more pleasant than the hunt itself.
    This is understandable, because Ukraine is now a "meat grinder" of our main enemy, which has not been defeated. More - in order to defeat him, NOTHING is being done. Probably many are TERRIBLE even to wave at it.
    Meanwhile, the "meat grinder" is working with might and main, grinding our best people, high-precision weapons and resources, along with confidence in the authorities. Moving forward in Ukraine is IMPOSSIBLE IN PRINCIPLE, since the enemy can pour resources and manpower into it in ANY QUANTITY from all over the world.
    Cut the border with Poland? And you try first. Then the Anglo-Saxons will finally proceed to the main point of their plan and bring Poland and NATO into the war. Do you think we have a chance in it after 30 years of work in the country of Yeltsin and Putin with their liberal teams according to the same plan of the Anglo-Saxons? This is also calculated by them. They themselves intend to stay safe and collect trophies. If there is not enough, they are ready to create new theaters in the Baltics and the Far East.
    That's what they didn't calculate, so it's a change, subordinated to them, and forcing them to retreat with a direct threat of annihilation. Personally - themselves. The very thing that Bismarck warned everyone about.
    But for this, Russia must first WANT to be saved and find a future, which I don’t see yet. Unfortunately for all of us. We are threatened not by the division of the country, but by the complete total destruction of its population and the hunt for people from it all over the world. What follows is the rewriting of history. "Russian question", this time, the enemy will decide to the end
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 4 December 2022 13: 31
      +1
      Moving forward in Ukraine is IMPOSSIBLE IN PRINCIPLE

      I'll correct my mistake.
      In one case, progress is not only possible, but will be - if the owners of the meat grinder want to quickly proceed to the main point of their plan - the inclusion of Poland and NATO in the war. Then, perhaps, they will temporarily "succumb" to us and retreat, so that it would be easier to draw their vassals into the game.
      They need Russia to weaken Europe and make it a manufacturing appendage, a colony of the States, while the Europeans must destroy Russia.
      This is the reason why the Anglo-Saxons did not destroy us 30 years ago - then they would have had to shed their precious Anglo-Saxon blood. Then they would not be able to force their vassals to do this.
      That is why they needed Russia and Ukraine as a "lighter" of the war in Europe
  16. Sergio63 Offline Sergio63
    Sergio63 (Sergey Petrovich) 4 December 2022 13: 11
    +1
    Of course, plan # 2 "Liquidation" of the notorious quasi-state Outskirts! Naturally, in order to achieve the ultimate goal, you first need to use option # 3 at the initial stage of capturing the Right Bank, while moving along the Zapadenshchina from Belarus, thus making a rolukotel for the Armed Forces of Ukraine !!! Naturally, a blow to the south to Nikolaev and Odessa with access to Transnistria !!! BUT ALL THIS CAN BE IMPLEMENTED only after the SECOND wave of mobilization, and best of all, DECLARATION OF WAR, GENERAL mobilization and the introduction of martial law in the country !!! Without these steps, the operation will be doomed to failure!!! Again such figures will appear, such as SURKOV or passers-by against Him ... and everyone will hand over !!! It's time to understand that we are on the verge of World War III and we are in mortal danger !!! It's time to shake people up...
  17. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 4 December 2022 13: 36
    +1
    The Russian Federation cannot choose, since the Russian authorities do not have a Decision on Ukraine.
    In Ukraine, there is a capitalist war for profit, for the market, for property, for land, for the preservation of what the oligarchs have stolen. This whole war is presented to the people in a golden wrapper, like a people's war, for truth, for justice. The issue with Ukraine has two solutions.
    First, the Russian Federation capitulates, the state of Ukraine remains, within any borders, Ukraine is an enemy of Russia, a NATO state, a springboard for the destruction of the Russian state. NATO will always, constantly conduct combat operations with the Russian Federation, through the territory of Ukraine.
    Second. Liquidation of Ukraine as a state. The whole, I draw your attention, the whole territory of Ukraine is part of Russia, in the form of regions and republics. There will be victory only if the Russian authorities declare that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975, is an integral part of Russia.
    All other reflections and compromises are from the evil one. NATO confronted us with a fact, slavery or freedom. Delaying the Ukraine Decision is to the benefit of NATO and the oligarchs.
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  19. vvladimirsedov Offline vvladimirsedov
    vvladimirsedov (Vladimir Sedov) 5 December 2022 13: 31
    0
    The third one looks realistic, but everything will go according to the fourth one, which is not visible now. Therefore, the game of chamomile is meaningless. Everything rests not even on Europe, but on the states. And the "choice" of the American people is a mystery shrouded in darkness.