So we will win: what is the plan of General Surovikin

Epigraph: “Strategy without tactics is the slowest path to victory. Tactics without strategy is just hustle before defeat.” (Sun Tzu)

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General of the Army Mark Milley, former adviser to the Secretary of Defense in the Donald Trump administration Air Force Colonel Douglas McGregor and current national security adviser in the Joe Biden administration Jake Sullivan, as well as other less significant speakers, all without saying a word, they unanimously convince Kyiv of the need for negotiations with Moscow, explaining that the window of opportunity is closing, and now is exactly the time to negotiate the most favorable peace conditions for the autumn successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To which the Kyiv lunatic, who has lost his shores, brazenly replies that he is not going to conduct any negotiations with the current president of the Russian Federation, until a complete change of political leadership in Moscow. He is echoed, even ahead of his boss in this, by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, stating that the army accountable to him will not make peace with Russia, and will continue the war until the enemy’s complete victory and surrender. At the same time, Putin once again humbly asks for negotiations with Zelensky, and his spokesman says that Moscow’s plans at the moment do not include a change in the political leadership in Kyiv.



For some reason, the Office of the President of Ukraine decided that this was a manifestation of the weakness of the opposing side, and therefore no concessions, a war to the bitter end and a parade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Red Square. Hence the demands of Bankova to partners - give us even more weapons, give us even more money and send us more mercenaries who will drive our cannon fodder to slaughter. But Zelensky apparently forgot who they are dealing with. Each subsequent proposal by Putin is always worse than the previous one, so we must quickly agree with what they give, about which Zelensky is warned by the most far-sighted of his overseas curators. Proposals for negotiations are not a manifestation of Putin's weakness, but a manifestation of his strength, so that later he can always say - I offered peace, the other side chose war, well, then do not charge me, what kind of claims against me? At the same time, Russia is intensively preparing to continue the military campaign, fixing the status quo is also not included in the Kremlin's plans. Putin simply "shakes" the enemy "weakly".

Something similar, if anyone has forgotten, was on the eve of February 24th. Putin then issued an ultimatum to Washington and NATO to provide security guarantees to the Russian Federation (the December 2021 diplomatic demarche of the Russian Foreign Ministry), the West refused him this, what happened next, you know, the NWO began. At the same time, the last person who believed in it was precisely Zelensky, who, in response to all Biden’s warnings about the impending invasion, stated that he did not see anything like that. I saw it only on February 24 at 5:10 in the morning, along with the first Russian missiles that landed on the sleeping cities of Nezalezhnaya. And if Putin had been more persistent then, then in a week everything could have ended for Zelensky, even the West, having pressed its ears, waited in horror for the first three days for an early denouement. When it did not happen through our fault, that's when the West became bolder, and what began began ... What happened next, you know. Everything was in our hands, we ourselves did not take advantage of the existing strategic initiative, passing it into the hands of the enemy in the end. Now it takes a lot of blood, and on both sides, to correct these mistakes.


I began this text with a quote from Sun Tzu, and it is not at all accidental here. To be honest, both sides of the conflict cannot boast of any strategy. The Russian side has not yet even announced the final goals of the special operation launched on February 24 (do not confuse goals with tasks, none of which has been completed at the moment either!). What kind of strategy can we talk about then? So far, all this 9-month fuss in the Ukrainian theater of operations is more like a set of tactical steps that each of the warring parties takes exclusively in response to the actions of the opposite side (at the beginning, Ukraine played second, since the end of August the cat and mouse have changed places, now Russia is forced to react on the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). But it’s clear with Ukraine - it’s not a player here, its strategy is written not in Kyiv, but in Washington and London, and it will depend on these guys where this monkey will go and how much more he will suffer. Here Sun Tzu is absolutely right - for the Square, this is all vanity before defeat, moreover, inevitable, prescribed by the puppeteers (in their strategic plans, the victory of Ukraine does not appear at all).

But the lack of a clear, unambiguous strategy from Moscow leads to complete despair not only of the citizens of the former Ukrainian SSR who believed in it (many of whom have already paid for it with their lives), but also of their own citizens, who, if this continues, will soon be lifted up own political leadership, to the unspeakable satisfaction of Washington and London, after which they will be able to say that their strategic plan for the collapse and defragmentation of Russia by drawing it into a fratricidal war in Ukraine has been 100% completed.

“Russia is concentrating” (A.M. Gorchakov)

But Moscow's latest moves could clearly shake those plans. Therefore, insistent voices have now been heard in the West about negotiations with Moscow and fixing the status quo from a position of strength against the backdrop of the victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson, Kharkov and Krasnoliman directions achieved in the summer-autumn period. The most far-sighted and knowledgeable of the Western curators of Nezalezhnaya see that the window of opportunity for Ukraine is closing - the white (autumn) stripe is replaced by black (winter), their possibilities are also not unlimited (France, for example, has already announced the curtailment of the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to the depletion of its military reserves , as the well-informed publication Politico reported to its readers the other day). Therefore, it is urgent to fix the profit received in the fall, because the coming winter does not bode well for them.

The US Joint Chiefs of Staff can see with the naked eye what a threat the new commander of the NMD poses to them, and from space, and on the maps, it is clear that the Russians are preparing a winter offensive. Most of all they are confused by the figure of General Armageddon himself. Alignment of the front line near Kherson, withdrawal of the Russian grouping to the left bank, “secret line” near Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh, as well as other fortifications in the Rostov region and even in the Crimea, plus the “Wagner line” in the depths of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions they tell attentive American generals not about the weakness of the enemy opposing them, but about his strength. They, unlike their drug-addicted patron, see that the Russians are not going on the defensive, but are preparing a large-scale offensive, and therefore they are building redoubts in the depths of their own territory in order to hold it with small forces, and throw the released troops, reinforced by mobilized reinforcements, into battle. And the saddest thing is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have nothing to oppose to this winter offensive of General Surovikin. The Russians are ahead of NATO in the pace of mobilization measures (roughly speaking, they are in antiphase - the Russians will have a peak by December - plus 300 thousand, and the APU will have a decline, minus 100 thousand). And this is where the talent of the commander comes in, how to dispose of the personnel he has.

In order not to compost your brains for a long time, I will simply give the statistics of preparing a mob. reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in foreign training camps. And these camps are not rubber at all - 10 thousand soldiers every 100 days were contracted to train England (for ease of calculation, we will reduce 100 days to three months), Poland undertakes to prepare the same amount for the same period, another 5 thousand Germany and the same number Romania (where without her!). Plus, hot Spain can't sit still, which decided to add its 2 recruits to this number. In total, we have: 32-33 thousand new cannon fodder, trained in a territory unattainable for Russian missiles, can replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine every three months. Nine months have passed since February 24 - this is an addition of 100 to the 205 bayonets already available at the time of the start of the NMD, which are on the balance sheet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (official figure). Let's add to it 250 thousand poorly trained reservists who did not undergo such training from among those mobilized in the first four waves of mobilization, plus 50 thousand doomed who enrolled in the ranks of the defense (in Ukraine at the time of the start of the NMD, 407 thousand people had military experience behind them) . In total, we get a real (not exaggerated!) figure - 600 thousand snouts have passed through the meat grinder of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during this time, of which, according to the report of the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, 100 thousand have already been disposed of.

What do we have in the dry residue? Half a million soldiers smeared in a thin layer across the territory of Ukraine. We will have the same number after 222 thousand who fell under partial mobilization (figure official, voiced by Putin himself, taking into account the registered volunteers). You can already fight! Moreover, I suspect that the number of combat-ready bayonets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is far from the figure I extrapolated of half a million snouts, based on the number of winter outfits ordered by their Minister of Defense from NATO. You will laugh, but Reznikov for his soldiers from Canada (namely, she must dress and put on the APU in all winter clothes, for which Germany has already paid off half a billion euros) requested only 180 thousand sets of winter ammunition. I have only one question: “What, the remaining 42 thousand will fight in the summer?” Has Surovikin really overfulfilled the plans for the burial of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers near Kherson and Bakhmut? Be that as it may, time will tell who is right here (at least, it is now playing on our side). At the same time, we do not forget about the rate of replenishment of personnel - we have 318 thousand every three months (if necessary), the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 200-300 thousand over the same period. Our replenishment will appear already in December, for the non-brothers only by March. What should poor Ukrainians do in this case? Curators advise to give up!

And they know what they're talking about. Because they understand who they have to deal with. They do not expect anything good from Surovikin. All Western military analysts vying with each other claim that General Armageddon is the most sophisticated Russian military leader in the deck of the Russian Defense Ministry. Both of his missions to Syria, where he led the grouping of Russian troops from March to December 2017 and from January to April 2019 (more than a year in total, longer than any other of the top officers who held this post), ended for them in a complete "ambush ”, Total defeat and maximum loss of territories (especially in the province of Idlib in 2019-2020). He acted unconventionally, using diversionary strikes, extremely harshly, sparing neither his own (meaning the SAA military personnel who carried out operations on the ground), nor even strangers (here we are talking about the “barmaley” of the ISIS, an organization banned in the Russian Federation), which is why earned the nickname "General Armageddon". Therefore, even now they are waiting for another “ambush” from him. That is why they insist on negotiations, realizing that after the winter offensive of the Russians, it will be possible to talk only about surrender.

The cruel arithmetic of war. Bakhmut meat grinder. "Verden" on the Dnieper

Everything will be decided this winter. Not in spring, not in summer, but in winter. No, the war will not end, but Ukraine will suffer such a defeat, after which it will not recover. An example that this will be the case is the events near Bakhmut. There, right now, at this particular moment, while I am writing these lines, the NM LDNR, together with the Wagner PMC, are grinding the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ruthless steamroller. And before that, the same thing happened near Kherson.

Recently, Putin, summing up the results of the Kherson operation, called the ratio of losses of the RF Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this operation one to seven to eight. During the attempts to attack Kherson, the losses of the Ukrainian side amounted to 10-12 thousand (Putin himself cited these data). But what is happening now near Bakhmut, even American sources who cannot be reproached for their great love for the Russians (The New York Times and The Washington Post) call it a nightmare comparable to the horrors of the First World War. What is happening there now, they call the "dirty lunar landscape" - burned earth, charred tree stumps, sooty patients (with pneumonia and chronic rheumatism), badly dressed soldiers knee-deep in dirty trench slurry. In just two days on November 25-26, the number of wounded taken to a nearby field hospital amounted to 500 people. I quote the original source:


At the same time, the ratio of the wounded and killed is not 1:4 or even 1:3, as we are used to, but 1:1. The wounded are simply not taken out of the line of contact (LBS), leaving them to die. There is no transport, everyone is involved in the transportation of ammunition, and the ammunition depots and the hospital are in different places, pick up the wounded from the LBS and make a walk in the opposite direction - no one wants, plus knee-deep dirt - wheeled vehicles get stuck, and the caterpillar caterpillar of the Armed Forces of Ukraine he cried - the allies were also not preparing for such a war. 1000 irretrievable losses in two days - such is the price that Ukrainians are now paying for the adventures of their drug-addicted boss. It is clear that there are both combat and non-combat losses, heavy, medium, light ... But something else is more important - a whole battalion of total losses over two days of fighting on such a narrow sector of the front. This is what density of Ukrainian troops is there ... Zelensky does not spare them, throwing corpses at the front line.

Our tasks in this war have also changed. I already wrote earlier that on October 10, it entered a fatal phase for Ukraine - the Kremlin launched an operation to destroy, to destroy Ukrainian statehood, to destroy the Ukrainian army, to destroy everything that threatens Russia. Since October 10, more precisely since October 8 and the blowing up of the Crimean bridge, Putin, whom Zelensky congratulated on his 70th birthday in this way, finally took off his white gloves and headed for the destruction of the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime and everything connected with it. From that moment on, a decision was made to physically destroy the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the more, the better. So that you understand that these are not empty words and not the fruit of my sick imagination, I will quote only the words of Prigogine:


Any questions? It is not for nothing that the Europeans dubbed the fighting near Bakhmut "Verdun on the Dnieper", and Prigozhin, who gravitates towards gloomy trolling, called them "the Bakhmut meat grinder." In the Great Patriotic War, we had tank destroyers - units of the Red Army, which were thrown with anti-tank rifles against German tanks. This was due to the multiple advantage of the Panzerwaffe in this component of the war. In 1941-42, during the most difficult time of the German offensive near Moscow, tank destroyers did their job, and then we were able to multiply the production of our T-34s, and by the end of the war we were head and shoulders above the Wehrmacht in this. Now the same story. Units of human fighters, enemy manpower, have appeared at the front. Wagner musicians are doing just that near Bakhmut now, they are steamrolling through the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine opposing them. No one is taken prisoner, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have only one road - to the next world. Everyone who gets to this section of the front is potential dead.

I don't see any point in pitying these cyborgs. In addition to Ukrainian cannon fodder, foreign mercenaries also appeared there. On the radio, our fighters say, one foreign speech, mostly Polish. In total, about 20-30 thousand of such “volunteers” are fighting in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - vacationers from different armies of NATO countries. The number itself is impressive. There are "knights of fortune", and "wild geese" (professional mercenaries), and ideological scumbags of different political views, and vacationers "seconded" to the war. In terms of national composition - a complete international (from Croats and Swedes to Poles and Georgians), Anglo-Saxons in the minority (they have completely different tasks there - they manage the process at headquarters, and not on the battlefield, unless we are talking about difficult-to-use weapons ). The telegram channel of the “orchestrants” reports the presence of completely foreign crews on the tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a rule, Polish. Of course, experienced foreign mercenaries will not climb into hell, but the fresh Polish youngsters themselves are sent by Bandera directly to hell, that is, to the "Wagnerites". And those traditionally ATGMs.

If we add to this the lack of shells that happened to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the shelling of the junction station near Krivoy Rog by Russian missiles and the general problems of Ukrzaliznytsia caused by these circumstances, then the oil picture that is emerging near Bakhmut will be complete. As one of the warriors of light, sitting there, wrote in his cart:


What is significant: there is already information that in the battle for Bakhmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost about 7600 fighters, but the numbers could be much higher. Of course, we are talking not only about the dead, but, according to the Nazis themselves, medical care for the “three hundred” is opaque, many wounded die without waiting for doctors. In Bakhmut itself, according to information from the independent occupying authorities, there are now about 16 thousand civilians, and this despite the fact that there are no communications in the city, which cannot yet be restored. The APU-shniks call them "separas" or "waiters".

Such reports from the front line. What will happen next - no one knows. Forecasts for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are one worse than the other. When (note, I write “when” and not “if”) the Russian winter offensive begins, most of Ukraine risks becoming such an advanced one. The plans of the curators do not exclude that after that it will become deserted. It suits them just fine.

Postscript

While the material was being drafted, Lavrov “killed” the entire international and pro-Western Russian public with the statement that “there will be no restoration of the old relations with the West!” Now you can see for yourself that everything that is happening is more than serious - we are breaking off all relations with the West, because the opponents, obeying the will of the hegemon, have made the final decision for themselves, no matter what it costs them, to achieve total defeat and the collapse of Russia. Moreover, they plan to stretch this process for years.

Thus, the United States, following this plan, allocates another 1,2 billion dollars to Ukraine, which will be used to produce six air defense systems for it (such as NASAMS), the contract deadline is the end of 2025 (as you can see, the Ukrainian boar is fed for the future, but for now are not going to). Germany, following the same course in the wake of the hegemon, assumed increased responsibility for the preparation of the mob. reserve for the Armed Forces of Ukraine - now she undertakes to prepare 2,5 thousand good Ukrainian cannon fodder per month. The United States also decided to keep up with the Germans and financed the instruction of the highest quality Ukrainian reinforcements at their bases in America (an expensive pleasure, I must say, and do they feel sorry for driving ships back and forth across the ocean?!). The Yankees undertake to prepare 30 mobs. reserve per year, the training plans include coordinating the work of motorized infantry units with artillery (well, at least not with aviation).

As you can see, the work is in full swing, delivered truly on a Hollywood scale. But even this seemed insufficient to the partners of the Independent, and France, in agreement with the hegemon (Macron just recently returned from America), on November 30 initiated the creation of a Special Tribunal for Russia within the EU (the Hague International Tribunal is apparently not enough for them!). As you can see, Putin is expected not only in The Hague, but also in Paris (the "bracelets" have already been prepared). Therefore, we must be aware that until we ourselves do away with the object of their concern, they will not get off of us. And therefore - Alga to Kyiv! And let the living ukrofascists envy the dead.

This concludes the report on the topic. I do not wish anything, because hard times await us all and the hardest is yet to come. Your Mr. Z