Is it beneficial for Russia to join Western Ukraine by Poland?


According to the latest Russian intelligence data, Warsaw is stepping up the process of returning its "germ-cresses" to its "native harbour". Ironically, the scheme tested by the Kremlin with holding plebiscites in the Crimea, Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov can be used. The division of Ukraine between its neighbors is gradually becoming a new geopolitical reality, but will it be beneficial for Russia if Galicia and Volyn become Polish?


The fact that Poland allegedly really intends to annex Western Ukraine to itself was reported by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin:

The information received by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service indicates that Warsaw is speeding up preparations for the annexation of Western Ukrainian lands: the territories of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and most of the Ternopil regions of Ukraine.

According to him, Warsaw fears that Washington and Moscow are about to agree to freeze the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore the Polish authorities want to have time to get what they consider rightfully theirs:

Meanwhile, Warsaw is sure that they deserved generous compensation for the military assistance provided to Kyiv, the provision of shelter for numerous Ukrainian migrants, and, finally, the recent missile attack on Polish territory, which Warsaw silently swallowed at the instigation of the United States and leading European countries.

How realistic is such a scenario?

In fact, detachment from Nezalezhnaya of its western regions with their subsequent absorption by Eastern European neighbors is a completely working scenario. How we detail told Previously, Poland, unlike the modern Russian Federation, has a clear and adequate plan for the integration of Ukraine within the framework of the Commonwealth-3 and the even more ambitious supranational project Trimorie. Launched by the Kremlin on February 24, 2022, the NWO only accelerated the ongoing geopolitical processes and made it easier for the Polish elites to do their job.

In fact, Moscow literally pushed Kyiv into the arms of Warsaw, which is only strengthening its presence in Ukraine day by day. Poland is the main logistical hub for the supply of foreign weapons to the Kyiv regime. On its territory, military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine undergo mass retraining according to NATO standards. President Zelensky granted Polish citizens equal rights with Ukrainians in his country, which paved the way for them to managerial positions. The data center of the tax service Nezalezhnaya has already moved to neighboring Poland. At the front, as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Polish “vacationers” are actively fighting in large numbers. Polish business is interested in sharply depreciated assets, including Ukrainian black soil and agricultural enterprises. The Polish Army is mobilized, conducts constant exercises, grows in numbers and is in a state of constant readiness. Two new divisions are located just near the western border of Nezalezhnaya. Is it possible to send Polish troops to Ukraine?

Yes, it is quite. From the very beginning of the special operation, such a scenario was working. If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted a large-scale defeat on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then Warsaw would send its troops to Western Ukraine to protect their compatriots. However, by December 1, 2022, it became obvious that the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if possible, would not be very soon, at best in the spring-summer of 2023, if the second and then the third wave of mobilization were carried out in Russia. Then why in Poland they began to accelerate with the holding of a plebiscite, according to the data of the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service?

It can be assumed that this is due to the formation in Western Belarus of a joint Russian-Belarusian group of troops of the Union State. When it reaches a minimum strength of 100-120 thousand people, it becomes possible to strike through Lutsk and Rovno to Lvov and Uzhgorod, cutting off Central Ukraine from Poland and the NATO bloc as a whole. The legalization of the Polish presence in Volhynia and Galicia through a plebiscite may be an attempt to prevent this scenario, which is negative for Warsaw and Kyiv.

It remains to decide on the answer to the main question - would not the division of the former Independent together with Poland, and then with Romania, and Hungary be the best scenario for Russia, for which Ukraine turned out to be too hard a nut to crack?

On the one handIf Poland really annexes Volhynia and Galicia through a referendum, and Romania and Hungary follow its example, this will automatically remove the problem from the Kremlin, what then to do with extremely disloyal Western Ukraine. There is no doubt that the Poles will cope better than the Russians with the “debanderization” of their “sprout crosses”. They have an old account for Volyn. Also, it may seem to someone that all this will make it possible later to point the finger at the Eastern European neighbors of the former Nezalezhnaya, who participated in the partition, they say, they themselves are the same.

On the other hand, Poland will not necessarily have to legally annex part of Western Ukraine according to the “Crimean scenario”. It looks more realistic to recognize them according to the “Donbass scenario” as formally independent quasi-states. This will allow Warsaw and the NATO bloc as a whole to actively use them against Russia, without bearing direct responsibility for what is happening in Galicia and Volhynia. Here, the “Idlib scenario” is more likely to be seen, when the Turks were able to turn the North of Syria into a real terrorist enclave. Therefore, all hopes to poke later in the direction of Eastern Europe, that it is “just as bad”, are naive and groundless.

Western Ukraine is indeed now the key to solving the problem of the rest of Ukraine, therefore it is not worth giving it to the North Atlantic Alliance. Both Moscow and Minsk should be equally are interested in establishing their control over Volhynia and Galicia, no matter how much someone would like to quickly fuse them into the wrong hands.
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  1. Alex Nevs Offline Alex Nevs
    Alex Nevs (Alex) 1 December 2022 17: 14
    0
    Perhaps... anything. Only Demilitarized! deized (well, this is humor without Natsiks.), decommunized. Otherwise it is perceived as an Operational Goal.
  2. maiman61 Offline maiman61
    maiman61 (Yuri) 1 December 2022 18: 07
    +12
    It is foolish to argue whether it is beneficial for us to strengthen the ENEMY! Pshekostan was, is and always will be an enemy of Russia.
  3. Art Pilot Offline Art Pilot
    Art Pilot (pilot) 1 December 2022 19: 20
    +1
    Poland has too much appetite. Maximum - Lviv region. Transcarpathia will be divided by Vegria and Slovakia. Romanians return Chernivtsi. Russia: LDNR, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kirovograd, Cherkasy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Sukma, Dnepropetrovsk and Kyiv along the Dnieper. The rest is non-bloc, neutral Ukraine (protectorate of Russia).
    1. The comment was deleted.
  4. nikolai.shupenin 1 December 2022 19: 36
    +7
    why we give back Poland the land for which our soldiers died in 45. We spit in memory of the dead.
  5. Adm Hts Offline Adm Hts
    Adm Hts (AdmHts) 1 December 2022 22: 03
    +2
    Is it beneficial for Russia to join Western Ukraine by Poland?

    what does it mean to be profitable...
    Giving your own is what bullshit...
    right there, the trick is - they will vote, they say everyone is in favor, they will declare Poland - all this is a country of nature ...
    those. during the war - an attack on Natu ...
    here's what they're up to...
  6. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 1 December 2022 22: 11
    -3
    The return of the “creses” to their native land, that is, to Poland, can be compared with the return of the Crimea to Russia. Russia should not interfere with this fair process if it is really going on. If Poland returns its historical lands in Ukraine and Lithuania, then it is very likely that the historical grievances of the Poles against Russia will sink into history, at least one can hope so. The existence of an independent Ukraine within its modern borders is needed in Europe, first of all by Germany, as a lever of influence not only on Russia but also on Poland
    1. mimocodil Offline mimocodil
      mimocodil (Mimicrocodil) 2 December 2022 13: 15
      +2
      Quote: Colonel Kudasov
      If Poland returns its historical lands in Ukraine and Lithuania

      And why didn’t you modestly mention the historical lands of Poland in Western Belarus? By allowing the annexation of Ukrainian lands by Poland, Moscow will simply push Warsaw to make territorial claims against Minsk. And what, now you are also trying to draw peaceful Belarus into the war? Who do you work for?
      1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
        Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 2 December 2022 18: 12
        +1
        Yes, he really did not mention Belarus. I proceed from the fact that on its territory there are still no such significant cities for Poland as Lvov in Ukraine and Vilna in Lithuania. Well, of course, Belarus for Russia is not at all the same as Ukraine. I myself lived in Grodno for a long time and I know for sure that there is nothing similar to Ukrainian nationalism in this country
        1. Ksv Offline Ksv
          Ksv (Sergei) 2 December 2022 19: 30
          0
          At the end of the 90th century, according to the census, the vast majority of the population of Lviv, more than XNUMX%, were Russians. However, as always. These are not the historical lands of Poland, these are the historical lands of Russia
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 1 December 2022 22: 26
    0
    If the Russian Federation controls central Ukraine, then a quasi-state will be created from the western one with territorial claims to it.
    Here the author is right. This is fraught with a non-healing ulcer in the region. How to maintain her inflamed state, the Americans know well, and will definitely do it.
    The option with a truly neutral central Ukraine will provoke the annexation of the western regions, which can be considered a great success for the Russian Federation.
    However, all this geopolitical mess is being brewed and stirred up by globalist structures, therefore the strengthening of national states will be stopped, and the Polish leadership will be dealt with in time, no matter how tempting it is for them to join the “creses”.
    The trouble is that they will not allow Ukraine to become truly neutral in any composition.
    There remains an option mirroring the former plan of the West regarding Ukraine.
    It includes three stages:
    1. Political control over central Ukraine.
    2. The threat of a subsequent seizure of quasi-state remnants from its western regions.
    3. Depending on the reaction to this threat - accession or consolidation of their status as having departed to other states.
    To complete the first stage, a cutting blow is needed between the western and central regions, which is possible no earlier than February, but no later than the beginning of the spring thaw, in order to meet it, having already secured positions in the occupied territories.
  8. Uncle Borya Offline Uncle Borya
    Uncle Borya (Uncle Borya) 1 December 2022 23: 11
    +7
    this will automatically remove the problem from the Kremlin, what then to do with the extremely disloyal Western Ukraine.

    Iosif Vissarionovich very effectively solved this problem by mass movement of Bandera to sunny Magadan. Yes, Khrushchev outplayed everything - brought them back. As a result, we have what we have.
  9. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 2 December 2022 10: 13
    0
    for Putin's Russia, ... Ukraine turned out to be too tough a nut to crack?

    A vile expression. Probably, Yeltsin's Russia is nicer for you, is this when they gave out Italian dog food for rations?
    1. The comment was deleted.
  10. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 2 December 2022 11: 22
    0
    And what will you do with them? Bomb and let everyone live as they want later ...
  11. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 2 December 2022 11: 48
    -3
    Quote: ArtPilot
    The rest is non-bloc, neutral Ukraine (protectorate of Russia).

    Ukraine is lost to Russia, which is unlikely to advance further than the current front line, it looks like the guts are thin for this. The Psheks are an energetic, aggressive nation of jackals who are becoming NATO's leading power in Europe, whether they like it or not. They will take what they need, and the sleepy, half-dead regime in the Kremlin will only have to swallow and put on a good face. Ukraine, Russia has already fucked up. Shame and disgrace.
    1. Igor Offline Igor
      Igor (Vladimirovich) 2 December 2022 13: 01
      -2
      I observe (Alex), there is something in your words, but if the war in Ukraine turns completely into a positional one, then without the consent of the above and Ukraine itself, having attacked Z. Ukraine, the psheks will be stupidly crushed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukraine will have enough freed forces to rein in the Poles.
  12. lord-palladore-11045 (Konstantin Puchkov) 2 December 2022 12: 17
    0
    I do not agree. If Volyn and Galicia go to Poland, will they be more loyal to Russia than they are now? Unlikely. And if they remain under the control of Russia, then they will remain under the control of Russia. In order for Western Ukraine to become loyal to Russia, a lot of time must pass, and work in this direction must be done by other methods. And what - you need to think.
  13. Igor Offline Igor
    Igor (Vladimirovich) 2 December 2022 12: 58
    +1
    this is all nonsense! For Poland, at least Ukraine along the Dnieper is needed. As a buffer zone with the Russian Federation. And the Poles are not fools. They don’t need Ukraine at all. that Britain "works" closely with Poland and Ukraine for its game. But for the Russian Federation, Z. Ukraine will be just a disaster. The Russian Federation does not have a sane proposal for the interest of the southeast, which is even closer to it in mentality, etc., and then what can I say for the western part of the country?
  14. mimocodil Offline mimocodil
    mimocodil (Mimicrocodil) 2 December 2022 13: 08
    -1
    Quote: Sergey Marzhetsky
    optimal scenario for Putin's Russia

    Gulchatay opened her face
  15. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 2 December 2022 13: 23
    -1
    if you start now in the public field, perhaps from the side of the Ministry of Defense, to express thoughts that in the event of Poland's invasion of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is ready to subjugate, on a voluntary basis, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that are ready to counteract the Polish invasion. These units will be armed, taken on the support balance and will be able, together with the Russian units, as well as the Aerospace Forces and artillery support, to drive the psheks out of the Slavic lands.

    Such an approach will highlight the closeness of our peoples, which some Ukrainians have exchanged for the beautiful promises of the West. It will show that Russia is not against Ukraine, but against Ukraine as anti-Russia.
  16. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 2 December 2022 14: 18
    0
    It is necessary to proceed from modern realities, who the living population consider themselves to be, and there are opportunities to annex territory to that state (Plebiscites, voting, etc.). During the Soviet era, fundamental changes took place, and for Poland there were practically no opportunities to win back the lost territories in Ukraine. During the post-war period, peoples moved, Poles to Poland, Ukrainians and Russians to Ukraine, etc. population and then draw conclusions. Note: after the WWI, the borders of the newly emerged states were drawn according to the national characteristics of the living population, which is also relevant after the collapse of the socialist community and the USSR to this day.
    1. Igor_E Offline Igor_E
      Igor_E (Igor) 2 December 2022 15: 08
      +1
      whom the resident population consider themselves to be to that state and

      Most of the population does not think with their own heads. What the media puts into their heads is what they will be. Over the past 8 years, they have notably been brainwashed.
  17. lance Offline lance
    lance 2 December 2022 15: 13
    +2
    the Russian Federation has a simple but very effective plan for Poland's refusal to seize western Ukraine - the methodical destruction of infrastructure with missiles. they will not go under missile attacks.
  18. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 2 December 2022 16: 08
    +3
    The question itself

    Is it beneficial for Russia to join Western Ukraine by Poland?

    provocative and hints that it is possible to profitably rent - sell Western Ukraine. Gorbachev-Shevardnadze, Yeltsin, Medvedev, Putin are all tearing up Russian lands. How do you imagine giving part of Russia's territory to the enemy? Are you not afraid of the wrath of the people? Not scary. The exit is simple. Issue a law that the entire territory of Ukraine is an integral part of Russia.
    The law will not allow Ukraine to quickly join NATO. The law will not allow NATO to intervene, to introduce troops from Poland, Romania, Hungary into the territory of Ukraine, and the annexation of Ukraine by these countries will automatically disappear. The law will not allow to conclude a confederal treaty between Ukraine and Poland, which is part of NATO, and Ukraine will not be able to become a member of NATO. The law will not allow the United States to blackmail and launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
    1. Vdars Offline Vdars
      Vdars (Victor) 2 December 2022 16: 36
      +1
      Who is looking at the LAW now?! Is it USA?! As the saying goes: "Don't make my soles laugh" - I will be tickled!!
    2. Sergei Fonov Offline Sergei Fonov
      Sergei Fonov (sergey fonov) 2 December 2022 19: 06
      +3
      There is such a law, though not about all of Ukraine No. 3 of 04 months 1990 "On the procedure for secession from the USSR, union republics", exit within the borders that took place at the time of entry into the USSR, that is, the borders of 1922, although they are trying not to remember and not to notice, but how else? Northern Kazakhstan is also Russia, I do not like Solzhenitsyn, but I agree with his position on Kazakhstan and other lands of the former Russian Empire.
      1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
        vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 2 December 2022 22: 22
        +2
        Exit of the Union Republics of the USSR, incl. Ukraine, from the USSR was possible only with a positive decision received at the USSR Referendum and the implementation of the USSR Law of April 3, 1990 No. 1409-I “On the procedure for resolving issues related to the withdrawal of a union republic from the USSR”. See the Constitution of the USSR of 1977, it was adopted by all the peoples of the USSR.
        The Treaty "On Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine" dated May 31, 1997 ceased to be valid on April 1, 2019 due to its denunciation by Ukraine. The termination of this Treaty releases the Russian Federation from any obligation in relation to Ukraine.
        The unilateral appeal adopted on December 5, 1991 by the Supreme Council of Ukraine “To the Parliaments and Peoples of the World”, by which it announced that “Ukraine considers the 1922 Treaty on the Establishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics with respect to itself null and void” is VOID, since in 1936 a new The Constitution of the USSR, with the entry into force of which the Constitution of the USSR of 1924 ceased to operate, including the Treaty on the Formation of the USSR of 1922. The Treaty on the Formation of the USSR of 1922 did not exist as an independent legal document.
        The exit of Ukraine without a nationwide referendum in the USSR and the failure to comply with the law of April 3, 1990 No. 1409-I is a criminal offense that has no statute of limitations.
    3. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 11 December 2022 16: 24
      0
      To do this, it is enough to denounce the illegitimate Bialowieza agreements and announce the implementation of the law on secession from the USSR (Russia) of 1990. But after Russian troops reach the borders of the former USSR. During the time required for its rigorous implementation, there will be enough formal reasons to revise many Soviet decrees and government decrees on the transfer of Russian territories to the former Soviet republics.
  19. paramaribo55 kmt (paramaribo55 kmt) 2 December 2022 16: 30
    +5
    If for the complete defeat and accession of all Ukrainians. territories to Russia, followed by the total disposal of all banders, it is necessary to establish a rigid dictatorship of power in the Russian Federation, then I am for it with both hands. Let the economy be military and general mobilization. By the way, Poland should lose the entire Baltic coast, there will be a Russian-German border and, of course, without acquiring other territories by it (Poland). I agree, for today, all this is difficult to imagine, but this is what we should strive for. After the civil war, Russia (USSR) rose from the ashes. Everything depends on the will, ambitions and correct calculation of Russia's power.
  20. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 2 December 2022 18: 16
    +1
    It is beneficial for traitors to Russia's interests. We can prepare for further war.
  21. nikanikolich Offline nikanikolich
    nikanikolich (nikola) 2 December 2022 20: 42
    0
    Profitable! The cockroaches of Galicia must know terror. Terror is not from us, but from Poland. Every nation should have years of "glory", we will not be able to give this glory, we are too compassionate, but the Poles can give with all their hearts. So why upset the Poles? It is necessary to provide an opportunity for people to know the caress of the gay European community, let them live and rejoice, and we will also rejoice that we got rid of the downs. They love geyropa, we love our people - everything is decorous and noble, the Poles have them, and we just hold a candle.
    1. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 11 December 2022 17: 04
      0
      The cockroaches of Galicia must learn terror....not from us, but from Poland.

      For this, it is not necessary to squander the ancient Russian territories from ancient times. Enough Squeeze out (evict) Bandera in Poland, after restoring their work all destroyed on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR.
  22. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline Yuri Bryanskiy
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 2 December 2022 22: 04
    0
    There is a Russian city Yaroslav in Poland. Therefore, the entire western outskirts is Russian land. But do we need it?
  23. Sergio63 Offline Sergio63
    Sergio63 (Sergey Petrovich) 2 December 2022 23: 35
    +1
    No territorial concessions to our former partners in the Warsaw Pact, the so-called. "brothers in arms" should not be done!!! Firstly, they are now not brothers to us, but frenzied enemies! Secondly: we must return our native Russian lands to the bosom of Russia! Thirdly: in the event of the transfer of these lands to these three most "brotherly" countries / invaders, we give them the opportunity for them, NATO member countries, to create an anti-Russian foothold there for all eternity ... more precisely, until the next NWO !!! Therefore, my friends .., without the second / third wave of mobilization and the subsequent general one, it is physically impossible for us to achieve the goals of the war with Ukraine !!! Yes, yes - exactly WARS, but incomprehensible CBO to everyone! ??? Therefore, without declaring war, you can’t do it here !!! We do not have enough strength to defeat, and then enter and gain a foothold in all the volosts of the outskirts. We seem to have order with equipment, which cannot be said about human potential ... We have a huge mobilization reserve, only the 5th column in our country is very good at conducting an information war that more than half of the population is skeptical about the thesis of continuing the war until victorious end, and even more so imminent new waves of mobilization!!!? And now draw conclusions gentlemen / comrades! It's time for us all to understand together that a new, yet another war is being waged by the hands of the Outskirts against our Motherland - Russia!!! We urgently need to unite in united ranks against the world hegemony of the ovs and the Anglo-Saxons!
    1. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 11 December 2022 17: 13
      +1
      Will the Oligarchy allow the commander-in-chief to do this? How do you imagine a declaration of war without stopping the pumping of gas, oil, ammonia, etc. to enemies supporting Ukronazism and through the territory illegally taken away as a result of an illegal conspiracy of Belovezhskaya Bialowieza, only three werewolves. the transfer of the NWO to the status of War will require many other actions that change the international legal, and even within the state, nature of this event.
  24. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 8 December 2022 18: 46
    +1
    Definitely Western Ukraine should not be part of Poland. I don't think it's possible. Since there are a lot of Bandera people who hate Poles no less than Russians.