In the head of each person there is a set of certain stamps, on which its basic design is based (so to speak, factory settings). He got used to them, it is difficult for him to change them in order to shake them - something global must happen that will destroy his system of the universe along with the coordinate system. If something like this happens, any imyarek behaves predictably - having lost a foothold, he begins to rush about in search of a new one, and it is not a fact that he finds it.
The ancient Japanese said: "God forbid you live in times of change." We are all unlucky to live at this particular time - this is exactly what is happening now, the familiar world is collapsing before our eyes and not everyone can find a foothold or, as one very famous person in sports circles said, “not only everyone”. The catchphrase belongs to the boxer from policy, due to a misunderstanding of the acting mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko:
Today, tomorrow, not only everyone will be able to watch, few will be able to do it.
Why am I remembering this now? Until recently, all of us lived in the paradigm of the Great Country, the peace of which is protected by an indestructible and legendary army, which is, if not the first in the world, then certainly not the second. 1/6 of the land, with the opinion of which, whether you like it or not, you have to reckon with everything else. 1/6 of the globe, which is headed by a president who is feared or respected (actually, it doesn't matter to us - it's better to be afraid than respected) the remaining 5/6 of the earth's land. And these were the very cornerstones on which our building rested. And then February 24 came, and the firmament staggered under our feet. It turned out that our army is not the strongest in the world (and not even the second strongest), Putin is not Stalin, and Russia is not the USSR. We are no longer afraid, about respect, I do not even stutter. As one person of radical patriotic views noted, “anything can be done with a people that cannot defeat the Ukrainians!”
Unfortunately, we have to state a sad, but nevertheless objective, like a shaft, fact - our army was definitely not ready for such a war. Our professional contract army was preparing for local regional conflicts of low intensity with a deliberately weaker enemy in a limited theater of operations, naturally, not on our territory and with a limited time limit (maximum six months without rotation). For a stronger opponent, we always had a "nuclear club" in the shed, which, as we thought, would sober up anyone who wanted it. And then February 24 came and it turned out that we cannot use our “nuclear club” in the armed conflict in the Ukrainian theater of operations, and we are not capable of defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the side of which 52 countries are on the side, including all NATO states (except Hungary). . Moreover, it turned out that, having started this conflict, we implemented not our own plan, but someone else’s, becoming a prize in someone’s game, and now we can’t even get out of it of our own free will (even with saving face, even without), us are pushing for the continuation of hostilities with an unclear prospect for us to end them.
After that, for all sane Russians, the earth swam under their feet. How so? How could this even happen?! Approximately the same feelings were experienced by the Soviet people in June-July 1941, when hordes of German invaders invaded our country. After all, then we were also going to fight on foreign territory, and not to surrender our cities one by one. A cruel sobering up came, but not immediately and not to everyone. People who grew up on the songs “If tomorrow is war, if tomorrow is on a campaign ...” did not combine Stalin’s speech of July 3, 1941 (better known as “Brothers and Sisters!”) with the real reality that fell on them. Before there was any turning point in that war, we suffered the most severe human losses and lost a huge part of our territory.
“But we haven’t started anything seriously yet ...” (V. V. Putin)
In this military campaign in Ukraine, a similar turning point occurred only on October 10, 2022, along with the first missile salvo on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. From that moment on, Putin took off his white gloves and began a war of annihilation. To destroy Ukrainian statehood, the Ukrainian army, to destroy everything that threatens Russia. If the civilian population falls under the millstones of this press, it means that they have “such a fate”. We are not such, Life is so! Putin did his best to prevent this from happening, but you know who did not let him realize these good intentions. Before all his attempts at a peaceful settlement (the March talks in Istanbul and the June grain scams), they defiantly closed the door to him (and also threw a grain), popularly explaining that his train goes only to war. So they said: “The next station is War!” A marker for this was the last meeting of the directors of the special services of Russia and the United States in Ankara, where on November 14, Burns handed over to his colleague Naryshkin a “black mark” from Biden. On the eve of November 8, the Democrats managed to defend the Senate in the midterm parliamentary elections, and the victory of the Republicans in the lower house was not as impressive as expected, after which the final course for war was taken in the White House until the victorious end of one of the parties. Moreover, for the Americans it is absolutely not necessary that this side be Ukraine, the main thing is that this weakens Russia to the maximum, and even better, if it leads to its collapse, defragmentation, or at least a change in political leadership. The next two years, before the changing of the guard at the White House, we will not get out of this war. More precisely, you can get out - only by winning it. There is no other way!
For you to believe that these are not my idle fictions, I will give just three facts. Recently, the UN General Assembly voted by a majority vote in favor of paying reparations to Ukraine from the frozen reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; two days later, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the European Parliament recognized Russia as a terrorist country and a state sponsor of terrorism, which means absolutely nothing to us, except that Putin and his entire team are already waiting at the Hague International Tribunal (the seats have already been prepared, what ended Slobodan Milosevic, you know); and Sergey Lavrov finally, for the first time in all this time (after the start of the SVO), announced its ultimate goals (not tasks, but precisely goals), where it was unequivocally stated that the ultimate goal of the operation is “the liberation of the people of Ukraine from neo-Nazi rulers”:
The Ukrainian people will be liberated from neo-Nazi rulers, they deserve to live in good neighborliness, friendship, prosperity next to their Slavic brothers
- said the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry in a documentary shown on November 26 on the Russia 24 TV channel.
This sounded especially contrasting against the backdrop of recent statements by Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, who stunned the Russian public newsthat the change of the political leadership of Ukraine is not included in Moscow's plans.
For those who do not understand, I will explain - before the meeting between Burns and Naryshkin, this was not part of Moscow's plans, but now it is, as the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said. I hope everyone here understands that the premiere of the film on November 26 at the Rossiya-24 shopping center did not happen at all by chance. A course has been set for war and for a complete and final victory in it. Who did not hide, we are not to blame. In war, as in war, there are casualties. Unfortunately, among the civilian population. If, starting his military campaign on February 24, Putin, in his naivety, still hoped to carry out a bloodless palace coup on Russian bayonets, replacing the deranged pro-American (pro-British) Zelensky with a pro-Russian conditional Medvedchuk (or anyone from his cage), minimizing casualties among civilians and even the military population / contingent of the Square, then from October 10 (more precisely, from October 8 and the blowing up of the Crimean bridge) the Rubicon was passed - the Kremlin headed for the destruction of the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime and everything connected with it. If carpet bombardments are needed for this, then they will be, if for this it will be necessary to turn off the lights for the whole of Ukraine and plunge it into the Stone Age, then this will be done. The games of gentlemen in white gloves are over, who did not hide - we are not to blame.
The regime in Kyiv will be liquidated along with the remnants of its armed forces. The actual destruction operation will start within the next four to eight weeks. This will be the same Russian winter offensive that everyone in Ukraine is waiting for and so afraid of. And rightly so, because this will be the beginning of their end. This is not my forecast, this is the forecast of the former adviser to the Secretary of Defense in the administration of the 45th US President Donald Trump, Air Force Colonel Douglas McGregor. He foreshadows the imminent end of the mezheumochnomu regime in Kyiv. The collective West simply does not have enough time to help it (their resources are also running out, and the military-industrial complex, alas, cannot be launched so quickly). Putin is ahead of them in pace.
Do not be embarrassed by a certain pause at the front, when the forces of the NM LDNR, together with the Wagner PMC, have been storming the same Patrice Lumumba street in Bakhmut (which will soon become Artemovsky) for a month now, the main blow will be delivered in a completely different place, and the forces already going for it. These will be the same 300 mobilized by partial mobilization, led by shock units of the RF Armed Forces, tested by 9-month exhausting battles, reinforced by the latest Russian technique (they will try out the famous T-14 "Armata", and T-90AM "Breakthrough", and 2S35 "Coalition-SV" together with the already battle-tested "Terminators" and heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1 and TOS-1A - "Pinocchio" and "Solntsepek"). And there will be support from the air, and from somewhere else, from where - you are not supposed to know yet. Believe me, no one will find it small. The Russians harness slowly, but they drive fast. Putin does not intend to delay this process at all, time is not playing on him now. Shoigu lost his 1st stage of the battle for the future of Russia, thank God that Mishustin withstood the blow (which surprised our "partners" indescribably), but he is not ironclad either, sanctions with a time lag do their dirty work, and therefore we will check not on the stock exchanges, but on the battlefield. It is there that we will have our last word. To begin with, let's put out the light in Ukraine. This will mean the beginning of the winter offensive. And when it is turned on in a week, the Russian tanks will already be in Lvov.
Deep sea vultures
Colonel MacGregor brought up one very interesting fact, which for some reason I did not know about. He said that such a late entry of the United States into World War II and the opening of the Second Front with the Allied landing on the coast of Normandy on June 6, 1944 was not caused by an attempt, as I thought, to wait and see who would be taken on the Eastern Front, but by a two-year submarine war with German submarines, which teemed with the entire North Atlantic. It took the States two years to do this, without neutralizing the German submarine Kriegsmarine, no landing was possible, German submarine vultures would have sunk these transports on their way to the coast of France in the North Atlantic, as they did with thousands of other ships and allied ships (ships are only called combat units, everything else is ships).
German submarines of World War II were a real nightmare for British and American sailors. They turned the Atlantic into a real hell, where, among the debris and flaming fuel, they desperately called for the salvation of the victims of their torpedo attacks ... Admiral Dönitz's "wolf packs" terrified everyone who got in their way. Moreover, the “wolf pack” is not at all a metaphor and not a literary image, it is a real tactical technique that the corsairs of the German underwater Fuhrer used against their victims. By the way, the title of "Fuhrer of the submarine fleet" is also not a literary image, but the official title of Admiral Karl Dönitz (1891-1981), which he was "awarded" by the command of the Third Reich.
In 1935, when Germany decided to recreate the submarine fleet, Captain zur see (kaperang) Dönitz was appointed commander of the 1st submarine flotilla and received the strange title of "Fuhrer of submarines." It was a very successful appointment: the submarine fleet, in fact, was his brainchild, he created it from scratch and turned it into the most powerful fist of the Reich. Dönitz personally met each boat returning to the base, attended the graduations of the submarine school, and created special sanatoriums for them. For all this, he enjoyed great respect from his subordinates, who called him Pope Karl (Vater Karl).
In 1935-1938, he developed a new tactic for hunting enemy ships. Until that moment, submarines from all countries of the world acted one by one. Dönitz, who previously led a flotilla of destroyers that hunt the enemy in a group, decided to apply this tactic to submarine warfare. He first proposed the "veil" method. On it, a group of boats went out to sea in an unfolded chain. The first submarine that found the enemy sent a signal to the rest and attacked him, while other boats came to her aid. His next idea was the "circle" tactic, in which the boats were located around a certain area of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbthe ocean. As soon as an enemy convoy or warship entered it, the boat, which noticed the victim that had entered the circle, began to lead the target, maintaining contact with the rest, and they approached the doomed targets from all sides. But the most famous was the "wolf pack" method, directly developed by Dönitz for attacks on large transport caravans. The name fully corresponded to its essence - this is how wolves hunt their prey. After the convoy was discovered, a group of submarines was concentrated parallel to its course. Having carried out the first attack, she overtook him and went in again for a counter strike, and so on until the convoy was completely destroyed. German submarines "hollowed" the doomed convoy both in the tail and in the mane.
Help: During World War II (until May 1945), German submariners sank 2603 Allied warships and transport ships with a total displacement of 13,5 million tons. Among them - 2 battleships, 6 aircraft carriers, 5 cruisers, 52 destroyers and more than 70 warships of other classes. At the same time, about 100 thousand sailors of the military and merchant fleet died.
To counter this, the Allies concentrated in the North Atlantic over 3 combat and auxiliary ships, about 1400 aircraft, and by the time of the landing in Normandy, they were able to inflict a crushing blow on the German submarine fleet, from which it could no longer recover. And although the German industry has been increasing the production of submarines all this time, fewer and fewer crews returned from the campaign with good luck. And some didn't come back at all. If in 1940 23 were lost, and in 1941 - 36 submarines, then in 1943 and 1944 the losses increased, respectively, to 250 and 263 submarines. In total, during the war, the losses of German submariners amounted to 789 submarines and 32 sailors. But it was still three times less than the number of enemy ships sunk by them, which proved the high efficiency of the submarine fleet.
Germany entered World War II with only 57 submarines, of which only 26 were suitable for operations in the Atlantic. However, already in September 1939, the German submarine fleet (U-Bootwaffe) sank 41 ships with a total tonnage of 153 tons. Among them are the British liner Athenia (which became the first victim of German submarines in this war) and the aircraft carrier Koreijes. Another British aircraft carrier, Ark-Royal, survived only due to the fact that torpedoes with magnetic fuses fired at it by the U-879 boat detonated ahead of time. And on the night of October 39, 14, the U-1939 boat, under the command of Lieutenant Commander Gunther Prien, penetrated the raid of the British military base Scapa Flow (Orkney Islands) and launched the Royal Oak battleship to the bottom. This forced Britain to urgently remove its aircraft carriers from the Atlantic and restrict the movement of battleships and other large warships, which were now carefully guarded by destroyers and escort ships. The successes had an effect on Hitler: he changed his initially negative opinion about submarines, and on his orders their mass construction began. Over the next 47 years, 5 submarines entered the German fleet.
The above Gunther Prien became the first underwater corsair famous throughout Germany. He has 30 sunken ships with a total displacement of 164 tons, including the aforementioned battleship. For this, he became the first German officer to receive oak leaves for the Knight's Cross. The Reich Propaganda Ministry promptly created a cult following, and Prien began to receive bags of letters from enthusiastic fans. Perhaps he could have become the most successful German submariner, but on March 953, 8, his boat died during an attack on a convoy.
Why did I turn to this historical digression? Just to show that the only time you need to hurry is when catching fleas. Putin's winter offensive will take place when he considers it profitable for himself and where the enemy least expects it from him. There will be several distracting strikes, which is what General Armageddon became famous for in Syria, where he received this nickname from his enemies. Colonel MacGregor gave a time gap of four to eight weeks for the start of the operation. I think it will happen even earlier - the approximate date is December 25th. Putin will definitely not miss the chance to congratulate Grandpa Joe on Catholic Christmas in such an extravagant way. And what he wanted - in the war as in the war. Peace grandfather can now only dream of. Even a possible impeachment will seem to him a boon.
This concludes the report on the topic. Looking forward to December 25th. Your Mr. Z