In the West, they believed in the victory over Russia "at a small price"

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In the West, they believe more and more not just in a historic victory over Russia through the Ukrainian army, but also in the fact that they will receive this victory literally "for a few pennies." This view comes through in a new article by the European Center for Policy Analysis by Timothy Ash.


In sum, the Biden administration has received Congressional approval for $40 billion in aid to Ukraine for 2022 and has requested another $37,7 billion for the next. More than half of this aid was directed specifically to military needs. These amounts seem insignificant compared to the total US defense budget of $715 billion for 2022. The supplies account for 5,6% of total US defense spending. But Russia is the US's main adversary, a top-level rival not too far behind China, namely the number one strategic rival. In cold geopolitical terms, this war provides the US with an excellent opportunity to undermine and weaken Russia's conventional defense capabilities without directly intervening or risking the lives of US soldiers.

- approved in the text.

Then Mr. Ash continued his thought.

Meanwhile, replacing the destroyed equipment and the continuation of the arms race will no doubt eventually bankrupt the Russian the economy; especially the economy under Western sanctions. How can Russia hope to win the arms race when the West's combined GDP is $40 trillion and its defense spending of 2% of GDP is well over $1 trillion, given the US's disproportionate contribution to defense? Russia's total GDP is only $1,8 trillion. Vladimir Putin will have to redirect spending from consumption to defense, risking social unrest in the medium term

- the author dreams.

In addition, Ash listed other benefits for the West. In particular, he believes that, watching what is happening, China will refrain from using force in Asia. Faced with the threat of a conflict over Taiwan, China's political and military leadership may hesitate to compete with the technology of the Western world, up to a complete refusal to use force.

It is beneficial for the West, according to the author, that Russian weapons will no longer be in demand among foreign buyers. And sales of Western weapons, on the contrary, will go uphill.

The author saw advantages in the fact that, against the background of the conflict, the European Union refuses Russian energy carriers.
  • Photos used: Canadian Armed Forces
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  1. trampoline instructor Offline trampoline instructor
    trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 26 November 2022 09: 23
    +1
    In the West, they increasingly believe not only in a historic victory over Russia through the Ukrainian army,

    I categorically do not understand the phrase "historical victory" in this context: history is a science turned to the past; The NWO in Ukraine is currently underway, now it is generally not known when and with what results it will end. Believe and victory is possible, but how can believe in a historic victory, is known to one author of the opus.
    1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
      soloist2424 (Oleg) 26 November 2022 11: 27
      +6
      I believe the author used the expression historical victory to mean historically significant. I don't see a bug here.
      1. trampoline instructor Offline trampoline instructor
        trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 26 November 2022 11: 57
        0
        1) The significance or insignificance of a particular historical event can only be determined over time.
        2) If the victory has not yet been achieved, then its (in-)significance at the moment cannot be determined.
        3) What exactly did the author use and in what sense, you have to ask him himself, and you can only guess.
        1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
          soloist2424 (Oleg) 26 November 2022 17: 29
          0
          Just like you.

          The significance or insignificance of a particular historical event can only be determined over time.

          The significance of some events can be determined immediately. For example, the victory over Napoleon or Hitler's Germany.
          1. trampoline instructor Offline trampoline instructor
            trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 26 November 2022 20: 39
            0
            1) This is your subjective point of view. I don't have to force it on me.
            2) The speech in the opus as a whole is about the NWO, and not about Hitler and Napoleon.
  2. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 26 November 2022 09: 27
    +3
    Dyrak Ash is getting richer with a thought.
    1. Sidor Bodrov Offline Sidor Bodrov
      Sidor Bodrov 28 November 2022 11: 25
      -1
      Putin needs to redirect defense spending - from the consumption of officials and oligarchs. A progressive tax on excess income - 45% (as in China) - then will not be fraught with social unrest in the medium and long term, and will increase confidence in the government.
  3. Ugens Offline Ugens
    Ugens (Victor) 26 November 2022 09: 32
    +2
    Russia itself gave ground to this, everyone saw that the "second" army of the world turned out to be frankly weak and was defeated by the 22nd army of the world, that the Aerospace Forces were not able to work in the face of anti-aircraft defense, that artillery mainly works on squares, making lunar landscapes that the publicized electronic warfare has no effectiveness. Etc.
    1. friar Offline friar
      friar (truth-reader) 28 November 2022 21: 48
      +2
      Quote from ugens
      Of course, you in Ukraine and your Western partners want to believe in it, but unfortunately for you

      Of course, you in Ukraine and your Western partners really want to believe in this, but unfortunately for you and them, the Russian army is systematically disposing of the second largest country in Europe, where the West has thrown all its forces, finances and technologies. At the same time, the crisis did not happen in Russia and people live and work as before. So the second army of the world is not bad at dealing with an indirectly participating NATO bloc in a remote theater of operations, while using a limited contingent of troops.
  4. Colonel Kudasov Online Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 26 November 2022 09: 36
    +2
    Kyiv will soon need not military, but huge economic assistance in light of the impending energy and humanitarian catastrophe in Nezalezhnaya. So far, Western politicians have not yet understood this. But in a couple of months they will understand what it is about)
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 26 November 2022 10: 08
    +4
    Common for Western experts Bredyatina. The whole calculation on a large GDP, taking into account which the cost of the movement of domestic papers, etc. nonsense, the cost of which will soon collapse and not like the MASDAG index by 30%, but hundreds and thousands of times,
  7. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 26 November 2022 10: 13
    -7
    It's hard to object to this. The loss of prestige of the AFRF is huge, it sobers up both the existing "sympathizers" (only Serbia) and potential ones. No one will buy the armaments of beaten armies either, and the arms race only plays into the hands of Anglo-Saxony and the rest of the West. So whatever one may say, this war, and maybe its future, the Russian Federation blew it with a bang. The reason for this, in my humble opinion, is Russian laziness and disorganization. Wake up and get up earlier.
  8. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
    soloist2424 (Oleg) 26 November 2022 11: 30
    +1
    And what else is left for the West, how not to believe in their own mighty forces? More precisely, what is left for him, how not to believe? Faced with reality, there are few reasons for optimism.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov Online Vladimir Tuzakov
      Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 26 November 2022 15: 49
      +2
      (Oleg) T. Ash's article is more propaganda for external and internal use, for whipping up military and other assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.. There is not a word about the impending economic collapse of Ukraine, which is a strategic defeat, and then, as a result, a strategic defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will follow . It remains to wait a little when a complete "black out" will be announced in Ukraine.
  9. Vyacheslav Krylov Offline Vyacheslav Krylov
    Vyacheslav Krylov (Vyacheslav Krylov) 26 November 2022 16: 25
    -1
    Timothy Ash is technically absolutely right. But informally and relatively - his article is an ordinary trial balloon, suddenly someone will lead.
  10. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 27 November 2022 12: 12
    0
    Before the start of the war, everyone considered the Russian Federation a powerful military power, but the 9 months of the war in Ukraine not only shook their former confidence, but gave good reason to believe that they would win literally “for a few pennies.”
    The war freed NATO from stockpiles of obsolete weapons and showed the need for new ones, which will give an impetus to the economy, and the costs of the war cannot be compared with the income for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, which will last for more than one year and is guaranteed to provide orders to a variety of industries for years forward.
    The war provided NATO with an excellent opportunity to weaken Russia's conventional defense capabilities without intervening directly in the war, and the Russian Federation would have to redirect spending from consumption to defense in order to maintain a military balance with NATO, risking social unrest.
    As for the PRC, Mr. Timothy Ash is wrong. The PRC does not seek to use military force and offers a peaceful option for unifying China on the basis of the principle of one state - two systems, but if the USA members do not leave the PRC with their provocations, then Comrade Xi said to this - the PRC does not want war, but is not afraid of war either. Presumably, the USA understand this, and if so, then after the relocation of microelectronics production from Taiwan to the USA, the main phase of trade for Taiwan will begin.
  11. Gulo Online Gulo
    Gulo (Anatoly) 27 November 2022 17: 59
    +1
    The patient is more alive than dead or vice versa. In short, no one will understand.
  12. Atol vedaslav Offline Atol vedaslav
    Atol vedaslav (Atol Vedaslav) 28 November 2022 10: 49
    +1
    What does the author of the article mean by the word "victory"? undermine and weaken Russia's conventional defense capabilities? ... will eventually bankrupt the Russian economy - This is victory? And the fact that we thwarted the planned invasion of NATO troops in March 2022 on our territory is not a victory? And the fact that we alone are waging a proxy war with the entire West, with incomparable military budgets, is not a victory? Yes, our weapons will not be bought, but who will sell them now, when there are already proxies in the yard, and a full-fledged war, first with the Poles, and then with the Germans? Our guys are gaining invaluable military experience, and the soldiers of the Saloreikha and the Poles - two meters of Russian black soil.
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. TermNachTer Offline TermNachTer
    TermNachTer (Nikolai) 28 November 2022 19: 38
    0
    Western analysts already believed that the Russian economy, with its 2% of world GDP, would die within a few months. However, rumors of death were greatly exaggerated. Not to mention that Russia is by no means alone in this event.
  15. friar Offline friar
    friar (truth-reader) 28 November 2022 21: 49
    0
    Quote from ugens
    Russia itself gave ground to this, everyone saw that the "second" army of the world turned out to be frankly weak and was defeated by the 22nd army of the world, that the Aerospace Forces were not able to work in the face of anti-aircraft defense, that artillery mainly works on squares, making lunar landscapes that the publicized electronic warfare has no effectiveness. Etc.

    Of course, you in Ukraine and your Western partners really want to believe in this, but unfortunately for you and them, the Russian army is systematically disposing of the second largest country in Europe, where the West has thrown all its forces, finances and technologies. At the same time, the crisis did not happen in Russia and people live and work as before. So the second army of the world is not bad at dealing with an indirectly participating NATO bloc in a remote theater of operations, while using a limited contingent of troops. And as recent events show, NATO is becoming more and more difficult, as it does not have enough military, financial and human resources to continue to drag this war.
    So start the generator and get ready for a long winter. And in the spring, if you don’t freeze and live, perhaps they will come for you to join the ranks of the valiant APU in order to fertilize the land
  16. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 28 November 2022 22: 32
    0
    Well, well. It’s sickening. NATO military experts (real, not couch analysts) are puzzling over how the RF Armed Forces manage to grind the superior enemy forces in a numerical minority and how to proceed, and this hack proclaims a historic victory.
    PS: In general, everything is according to the canon of the State Department. It loudly announces its victory and quietly dumps it into the fog. Example: Was World War II appropriated? Assigned. The collapse of the Union, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Korea. With Vietnam and Syria, the overlay came out, but that's okay, Hollywood will cover everything and rewrite it.