How many more blows will the energy system of Ukraine withstand


On November 21, heating points began to operate in Kyiv and other cities of fascist Ukraine, or, as Zelensky himself called them, “points of invincibility.” The Fuhrer devoted a separate publication to them in his official Telegram channel: in his words, there are already more than four thousand such points and it is planned to organize even more.


In the event of a blackout, these points should provide the "hulks" with hot drinks, the ability to charge their phones and access the Internet, so it can be assumed that they are provided not only with mobile gasoline or diesel power plants and kettles, but also with Starlink terminals. Judging by the propaganda photos, “invincibility” in Ukrainian looks like a table surrounded by people with a bunch of extension cords, all the outlets of which are occupied by gadgets, and it’s not hard to imagine what will happen if the battery of a smartphone suddenly explodes from overload.

Meanwhile, the heads of Ukrainian energy companies are broadcasting scare the population with the immediate prospects. On November 21, the head of the state operator Ukrenergo, Kudrytsky, said that all the country's power plants, with the exception of nuclear ones, had been damaged by Russian missile strikes. Two days earlier, Timchenko, CEO of private energy supplier DTEK, advised all Ukrainians who have the opportunity to move to Europe for the winter. Gauleiters of the regions sing in unison with the power engineers, warning about the possibility of many days and even weeks of power and heat outages.

That is, if these Cassandras are to be believed, the Ukrainian energy system is either standing on the brink of an abyss, or is already preparing to take a big step forward. But is it really so?

Desirable and actual


The situation on the "ground" is both simpler and more complicated than the enemy propaganda is trying to convince everyone. Definitely, Russian strikes shook the Ukrainian energy system, deprived it of part of its generation and stability. So far, after the next wave of missiles, Ukrainian power engineers have been able to rebuild the system, using reserve lines and loading the surviving substations in excess of the nominal value, but each time this reserve is getting smaller and smaller.

This is clearly seen in the photos and videos coming from the Ukrainian side. Official footage shows cities standing in the dark, with street and house lights turned off. From philistine videos, however, it is known that voracious electric transport works quite well - both trolleybuses and even the metro (and escalators also work in the metro).

At the same time, overloads of individual power grid nodes regularly occur: recently a video from Kyiv appeared, in which one of the transformer substations closes and flashes. The further, the more such cases will be, given that winter has already come to Ukraine and the population will still try to use electric heaters.

To date, the bulk of electricity generation in Ukraine comes from nuclear power plants, which have not yet been hit, of course, for political reasons. It is interesting that not all disabled TPPs ceased to function due to damage: for example, on November 9, Krivorozhskaya TPP, according to objective control data, was practically intact, but did not work, apparently due to a shortage of coal, the reserves of which on storage areas were minimal. But the lack of fuel, in turn, could be caused precisely by strikes on the energy system and a reduction in transportation by electric trains.

However, one cannot exclude the possibility that part of the TPP (not only Krivorozhskaya, but also some others) could be stopped intentionally in order to misinform our intelligence. To some extent, the statements of the same “energy Fuhrers” and beautiful noir photos of Kyiv in the dark are aimed at the same thing: fascist propaganda, contradicting itself, simultaneously “shoots down twelve out of ten missiles” and deliberately overestimates the effectiveness of our strikes. The Ukrainians are trying to mislead not only us, but also their Western "allies", so that they throw more help and more willingly.

The Kyiv regime is also taking practical steps to protect its energy system. Judging by the publicly available satellite images, the objects most vulnerable to Geranium attacks - transformers - are lined with earth embankments or "walls" of sandbags, anti-fragmentation shields are installed between them.

For all their "primitiveness", these measures can seriously reduce the effectiveness of "flying mopeds": although direct hits are still "fatal" for oil-filled transformers, and not every embankment can save from the powerful cumulative warhead "Geranium", shrapnel cubes and fragments are already won't be scary. And if Ukraine really gets the anti-aircraft guns promised by the British Prime Minister, they will also certainly defend the most important substations from kamikaze UAVs. However, neither embankment nor anti-aircraft guns will save you from more powerful missiles.

In principle, the Ukrainian energy system has survived to this day not only and not so much thanks to the efforts of its owners, but because of the limited capabilities of the Russian army to mass strikes. Our troops are inflicting them in waves, as ammunition is accumulated: they restored the BC - they fired a volley, but for now, fresh missiles are being brought from the factories, intelligence, satellite and undercover, evaluates the results of the strike. By the time the Ukrainian power engineers, at the very least, patch up their trishkin caftan and another batch of Kalibr and X-101s appears on the launchers, everything repeats itself, but we are already hitting new “pain points”.

Judging by the fact that each next blow is “record-breaking” than the previous one, the Ukrainian power grid will survive two more, maybe three Russian salvos. That is, if the current pace is maintained, a complete collapse can be expected by mid-late January. If, however, a fundamental decision is made to “turn off” the nuclear power plant (the Nazis are just asking for this by continuing to shell the Zaporozhye station), then the “end of the world” will come even earlier and will be truly universal.

Some time ago, sources citing some "anonymous insiders" cited the following information: they say, the Kremlin sent an ultimatum to Bankovaya - either the beginning of negotiations on surrender before the end of November, or a complete "cut off". And although this is a pure fiction with a probability of ninety-nine out of a hundred, the natural course of things leads to this (that is, a blackout).

Opposing force


Can the enemy deliver effective strikes against Russian infrastructure? In the end, this “game” began in earnest precisely with the filing of Ukraine, which staged a diversion on the Crimean bridge.

Yes, Ukrainian troops and special services can (and do) strike at the Russian energy system, but to the best of their own modest forces. Fortunately, the Kyiv fascists can only dream of "turning off" the whole of Russia or at least a couple of regions in the European part of the country: their strike capabilities are incommensurable with ours, however, as well as the ability to restore what was destroyed. In particular, the reconstruction of the affected automobile branch of the Crimean bridge is almost completed, it is planned to open traffic on it in early December.

The Ukrainian Fuhrers are passionate about depicting something at least similar to the massive Geranium raids - however, everything rests on frankly meager material resources. The episode that took place on the night of November 23 is typical in this regard: a number of Ukrainian medium-sized UAVs, apparently converted into kamikazes, tried to break through the Crimean air defenses, but the attack was repelled. Five downed UAVs are reported, two of which were heading for the Balaklava TPP. Perhaps if there were not five, but fifty kamikazes, then the enemy would have a chance of success, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not yet have such a number of drones.

On November 20, there were reports that allegedly Melitopol was attacked by four kamikaze UAVs of a previously unknown type, each of which carried several kilos of plastite in its warhead. Immediately there was an assumption that this is a kind of Ukrainian analogue of "Geranium". True, no photos of unknown kamikaze were presented, so it’s not a fact that there was a “boy” at all, but it’s worth waiting for his appearance.

Ultimately, the version was confirmed that Ukraine has launched the production of unmanned fireboats, and a floating drone is a more complex device than a flying drone. By the way, a single explosion that occurred near the oil terminal in the harbor of Novorossiysk on November 18 is attributed to the attack of one such “combat swimmer”. However, any damage from the attack is denied, and it is not entirely clear whether the attack on the terminal was planned or whether the fireman (if it was one) was supposed to hit some ship, but did not find it and blew up next to the first object that came across.

One way or another, the fascists will not succeed in massaging such “high-tech” means of attack to strike at our infrastructure, and Russian air defense is by no means more reliable than Ukrainian. The maximum of their capabilities is the defeat of individual substations (or, for example, water intakes) in the frontline areas, which cannon or rocket artillery “reaches out”, which is never healthy, but cannot undermine the country's defense as a whole.

The organization of sabotage, similar to the explosion on the bridge, promises much greater success to the enemy, and it is possible that the explosion on the main gas pipeline in the Leningrad Region, which occurred on November 18, was precisely the sabotage. It is precisely this kind of threats that should be taken as seriously as possible, since hypothetically saboteurs can operate anywhere in Russia.
14 comments
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  1. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 23 November 2022 18: 46
    +1
    In the event of a blackout, these points should provide the "hulks" with hot drinks, the ability to charge their phones and access the Internet - therefore, it can be assumed that they are provided not only with mobile gasoline or diesel power plants and kettles, but also with Starlink terminals. Judging by the propaganda photos, “invincibility” in Ukrainian looks like a table surrounded by people with a bunch of extension cords, all the outlets of which are occupied by gadgets – and it’s not hard to imagine what will happen if the battery of a smartphone suddenly explodes from overload.

    How we are dependent on these rectangular briquettes. All life in one gadget laughing
  2. Igor Listov Offline Igor Listov
    Igor Listov (Igor Listov) 23 November 2022 20: 34
    +3
    And how to put a minus article?
  3. Ugens Offline Ugens
    Ugens (Victor) 23 November 2022 20: 44
    -4
    And where are the comments, strikes on Ukraine or Russia, that there is no one to write to?)))
  4. Sergei N Offline Sergei N
    Sergei N (Sergey N) 23 November 2022 23: 09
    +1
    It is necessary to bomb Hohlandia into the Stone Age, so that there is no water, no light, no gas!
  5. trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 23 November 2022 23: 50
    -2
    the main volume of electricity generation in Ukraine is accounted for by nuclear power plants, which have not yet been hit - of course, for political reasons.

    There is no need to look for political reasons where there are none.

    At the same time, unlike the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which shamelessly bomb the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Russian strikes do not affect the nuclear infrastructure. “Russia has not fired a single shell at nuclear power plants. Suspensions of their work are associated with the destruction of power grids. Stations can still generate electricity, but cannot deliver it to consumers”, – note the authors of the Telegram channel “Release the Kraken”.
    “The most likely cause of the incident was the failure of the supply substations. This led to a sharp drop in consumers of electricity generated by nuclear power plants, due to which shifts on duty were forced to turn off the reactors and transfer them to work for the stations' own needs, ”the analysts add.
    “It is possible that power engineers will again be able to assemble emergency schemes and resume the operation of part of the nuclear power plant. But what is happening is a good demonstration of the beginning of the collapse of the unified energy system of Ukraine into separate “islands” independent of each other, the authors of the channel believe.
  6. yo yo Online yo yo
    yo yo (Vasya Vasin) 24 November 2022 04: 29
    +2
    Russia hasn't started anything in earnest yet in Ukraine

    said President Vladimir Putin.
    1. syndicalist Offline syndicalist
      syndicalist (Dimon) 24 November 2022 06: 11
      +1
      If so, why did she start what is going on now?
  7. syndicalist Offline syndicalist
    syndicalist (Dimon) 24 November 2022 06: 18
    -5
    As long as there is help from the West, Ukraine is not threatened with a blackout. At worst, they will connect the Ukrainian energy system to the European one.
    In general, it is possible that Ukraine will still say thank you for these attacks, thanks to which there is a complete re-equipment of power plants from Soviet junk to the latest Western ones. The same thing happened with Germany, which at once got rid of junk on reparations and thus made a sharp technological leap.
    1. trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) 24 November 2022 08: 37
      +1
      Ukraine will still thank you for these shelling ...

      October 10 - this is only the beginning of the arrival of a white fur-bearing animal named "Arctic Fox". The severity of the blows is on the rise, and the blows themselves have ceased to be gentle. Will the West help? - Hardly, look at the map of Ukraine and estimate its scale. Which of the European countries (Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland) will supply Dnepropetrovsk or Poltava regions with electricity?
      No one will say thank you - when the boot of a Russian soldier comes on your throat, your historical homeland can only wheeze and grunt.
  8. Alexbf109 Offline Alexbf109
    Alexbf109 (Alexey) 24 November 2022 09: 34
    +3
    No negotiations! This will give the Bandera people only to accumulate strength and lick their wounds!
    To finish off, and once again finish off Ukrostan, while the pro-Bandera population supports the Ze regime and dream of "reparations from Muscovites"!
    Let them continue to dream, without water, heat, light ... in line for the ice hole, in January!
    1. Igor Offline Igor
      Igor (Vladimirovich) 27 November 2022 05: 00
      0
      Alexbf109, to finish off is when the enemy has already been defeated. Ukraine is far from being defeated and this is NOT foreseen yet. And to finish off, resources and forces are needed. The Russian Federation has no forces. for the Russians themselves. There is a set of slogans that constantly contradict themselves.
      And you are talking frank nonsense. The overwhelming majority of the population of Ukraine has a negative attitude towards the Russian Federation, not because it is of the "pro-bander" type. In Ukraine, at least half of the population treats Bandera badly. therefore, Russian propaganda totally loses to everything and everything in Ukraine - it’s just convenient for them to work that way - but it’s hard to find dumber approaches to the minds of Ukrainians.
  9. Oleg V. Offline Oleg V.
    Oleg V. (Oleg Vladimirovich) 24 November 2022 11: 08
    +2
    And what prevents ours from sabotaging? Insurmountable language barrier?
  10. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 24 November 2022 13: 10
    +3
    Quote: syndicalist
    As long as there is help from the West, Ukraine is not threatened with a blackout. At worst, they will connect the Ukrainian energy system to the European one.
    In general, it is possible that Ukraine will still say thank you for these attacks, thanks to which there is a complete re-equipment of power plants from Soviet junk to the latest Western ones. The same thing happened with Germany, which at once got rid of junk on reparations and thus made a sharp technological leap.

    Yes. Especially considering the shortage of energy and energy carriers in Europe itself. You, at least, turn on the thinker on Thursdays. A state hanging like a dead weight on the EU and the USA, which does not have its own budget. The poor are given copper coins, not gold coins.
  11. Igor Offline Igor
    Igor (Vladimirovich) 27 November 2022 04: 53
    0
    the most disgusting thing is that all these attacks mainly harm civilians and almost nothing for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Only for a few hours, the transportation of medicines and goods is grounded, which is nothing for a static front. And EVERYTHING! leased lines in total, including standby generating capacities.
    Well, if these blows are carried out so that the Russian Federation sets Ukrainians even more against itself, then it is understandable and it achieves great success here.