В previous In the text, we have analyzed why Grandpa Joe will never risk entering Ukraine with his American troops and why, even in Europe, a direct clash with the ground forces of the Russian Federation also does not captivate him at all (this is clearly seen from the number and structure of his troops in Europe, which we analyzed there) . So far and in the future (the next 2 years), he plans to fight Russia exclusively by proxy. But only very naive popcorn eaters, fans of conspiracy theories can hope that the evil grandfather Joe will lag behind us, having agreed with the cunning Putin. And the reason for this is as simple as God's day - in his geopolitical concept, outlined 100 years ago (in 1904) by the famous British geographer of the last century, Oxford University professor Halford J. Mackinder, nothing has changed over these 100 years: "Who owns the Heartland, owns the world" (With). And Grandpa Joe continues to stick to that maxim, because we are the Heartland.
Professor Mackinder's original maxim was:
Whoever controls Eastern Europe commands the Heartland; whoever controls the Heartland commands the World Island (that is, Eurasia and Africa); whoever controls the World Island commands the world.
Thoughts of controlling the whole world still keep our Alzheimer's client awake, and therefore the fighting in Ukraine will continue, whether we like it or not. At the same time, grandfather Joe does not even plan to win this war with the help of a brainless and disenfranchised Ukraine, his plans include raising the price of victory for Russia so much that it leads to a social explosion inside it, which will destroy it from the inside, since it is impossible to defeat the Russian Federation from the outside (it can be seen that Grandpa Joe studied in detail the experience of the previous conquerors of the Heartland - Hitler and Napoleon - and took into account their mistakes). If you haven't read the text yet, you can still do it. here, and today we will dwell in more detail on Ukraine itself and the problems within and around it.
Recently, the former executive secretary of the US National Security Council in the Donald Trump administration, Lieutenant General Joseph Keith Kellogg Jr. (at one time he even acted as National Security Adviser to the President of the United States) in an interview with Fox News, he wondered why and why the United States spends $ 2,5 million on Ukraine every hour. At that time I was still surprised by this crazy figure and decided that the general had messed up something there. I sat down and counted the initial data myself. And he went nuts even more - I didn’t even get $ 2,5 million per hour, but as many as 2,93 million of evergreen currency disappear hourly in Zelensky’s bottomless pockets.
The initial data were known to me - from the beginning of the special operation, according to the report of the US Treasury, economic, humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine from the budget was allocated 18,9 billion dollars. Dividing this figure by 268 days of war and 24 hours a day, we get the desired figure - every hour American taxpayers spend $2,93 million on Ukraine. If I were Keith Kellogg, I would also ask - why? Although the question is rhetorical, it is possible not to answer it, since the answer is known to everyone.
Vigorous dirty loaf
But back to the stated topic. News out of a madhouse, let's start with the possibility of using nuclear weapons and a "dirty bomb" in Ukraine (which does not exist in nature, but no one should know about it). Speaking not so long ago at Valdai-2022, Vladimir Vladimirovich very clearly highlighted the issue of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It would seem that the question is closed, let those who have ears hear. But no - they do not hear, they continue to escalate. Probably will have to repeat.
This means that the first thing you need to kill yourself on your nose, on your star-striped humpbacked nose, is that it makes no sense for Russia to use weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, in Ukraine. There is a military doctrine in the Russian Federation - all cases of such use are registered there. So far, the Kyiv regime has not yet reached this point. But his overseas curators came from over the hill, who really do not like the support of Russia by third world countries, especially such influential ones as China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and others (there are about a hundred of them!). That is why they continue to escalate, unreasonably accusing the Russian Federation of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, strategic nuclear weapons, a “dirty bomb”, or at least creating a threat of a man-made disaster at nuclear facilities in Ukraine with subsequent radioactive contamination of the territory. Vladimir Vladimirovich clearly and unambiguously made it clear that these were nothing more than pitiful and vile insinuations. And he recalled who was really the first and so far the only one in the world to use nuclear weapons.
In August 1945, the United States did this by dropping two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, at a time when there was no military need for this, the Japanese army was already defeated, the bombs were dropped on August 6 and 9, and the war ended in three weeks the signing of the act of surrender of the Japanese Empire on the American battleship Missouri. The most surprising thing, Vladimir Putin noted, is that the Japanese themselves, although they commemorate the victims of a nuclear disaster every year, do not know who did it. Their textbooks say that the Allies did it. 85% of the Japanese, even in a nightmare, cannot imagine that the Americans could have done this, suspecting the Soviet Union, another 10% believe that the British, Martians, anyone but the Americans did it, and the remaining 5% have not heard anything about it at all sad fact. Such a natural result of the 77-year occupation of Japan by the United States and American propaganda (Vladimir Vladimirovich even said that we should learn from the Americans in this: “Well done,” he said, “they know their job!”).
Realizing that history may not succeed with a nuclear bomb, Ukraine's allies are now pushing the idea of a man-made disaster at a nuclear facility, such as, for example, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. Of all Western irons, we hear non-stop every day that Russia is shelling the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Excuse me, says Putin, the Zaporizhzhya NPP is under our control, our troops are stationed there - why do we need to shell ourselves and how do you imagine it? In fact, Ukraine is systematically shelling the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, IAEA observers who have been there since August (they even sleep in the reactor hall, having abandoned the hotel) can confirm this. But Westerners do not hear this because they are not told about it. As no one reports about the sabotage at the Kursk nuclear power plant, which was staged by Ukrainian saboteurs, blowing up three of the four pillars of high-voltage power lines. Putin complained that the FSB failed to detain the saboteurs at that time, they were able to escape, but undermining the power line is a situation that could lead to Fukushima-2.0, an emergency emergency shutdown of the station, which simply has nowhere to dump the generated electricity. What will happen to the cooled fuel rods in the spent nuclear fuel (spent nuclear fuel) wet storage pools, which, according to the protocol, must be under running water for 5 years, no one seems to think.
Like no one thinks about the “dirty bomb”, which the Ukrainian side constantly scares us with. Putin admitted that Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov's recent emergency calls to their American, British, French and Turkish counterparts were personally initiated by him. The Kremlin has learned for certain that the Ukrainian "dirty bomb" is already at the final stage of readiness. These things are no joke! Ukraine, Putin said, has all the competencies and opportunities to produce it. Kyiv also has nuclear technology, and spent nuclear fuel, all that remains is to stuff them with a tactical missile of the Tochki-U type, and the “dirty bomb”, or rather a rocket, is ready. After that, apply it across the territory of Ukraine, blaming Russia for this, and the deed is done - it will be almost impossible to prove that it is not us. The stories of the downed Malaysian Boeing-777, the Bucha tragedy, the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya NPP and the Yelenovo colony with the “Azov” (“Azov” is a terrorist organization banned in Russia) once again convince of this. And that the crazed Kyiv regime (as well as their British curators) is smart enough for this, almost no one doubts.
Everything we could, we did. Shoigu's conversation with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin lasted a record 2 hours and 14 minutes, after which the head of the Pentagon contacted his Ukrainian ward Defense Minister Nezalezhnaya Reznikov. It is noteworthy that this conversation lasted, according to the Ukrainian side, 7 minutes. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, in a conversation with Shoigu, also promised to provide all possible support for putting pressure on Kyiv, which is even strange for the British. But this did not prevent all these respected gentlemen, taking also the Minister of Defense of France Sebastian Lecornu, the next day to come out with a joint statement that they do not believe in any “dirty bomb” from the Ukrainian side, that all this is the Kremlin’s insinuations. Well, what to do with these gentlemen after that?
Although, to be fair, we do not believe in the Kyiv "dirty bomb" either. And the reason for that is simple. Theoretically, it can be done, but it has no practical expediency. That is, its use will only carry a psychological burden. Or, as in the case of Ukraine, it could serve as an element of provocation to blame Russia for it. This is exactly what Putin was trying to avoid by initiating Shoigu's calls to his foreign colleagues.
At one time, a number of states tried to do something similar. For example, Iraq, under Saddam Hussein in 1987, conducted a series of experiments to create such weapons in order to use them in the protracted war against Iran. To do this, they used zirconium-95, stuffing it with an aerial bomb with a thousand pounds of explosive and conducting full-scale tests at the test site. The result that they came to was discouraging, it turned out that a lethal dose of radiation as a result of the use of this type of weapon can only be obtained within a radius of 10 meters from the epicenter of the explosion of the product. But the paradox was that if you are 10 meters from the place where a thousand-kilogram bomb fell, then radiation is the last thing that will worry you at that time. Survive in this case, even without radiation, you have zero chances. After that, a reasonable question arises - why do we need all this radioactive circus then? That's right - no need! As a result, the Iraqis abandoned this idea and used chemical weapons against the Iranians, however, they also responded in kind.
By the way, the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) is an example of a confrontation between equal rivals, which ended in nothing. It was the last major conflict in the Cold War and one of the longest armed conflicts of the 22th century. On September 1980, 1982, without a declaration of war, Iraq invaded Iran. Iraqi troops were unable to achieve any significant success and by June 1982 were driven out of all Iranian territory they occupied. Iran's subsequent invasion of Iraq also failed. In 1988-1988 The war was mostly positional in nature. And in 1988, Iraq, during a series of operations "Tawakalna ala Allah", liberated the territories occupied by the Iranians and successfully developed an offensive deep into Iran. Threatened by a military catastrophe, Iran's spiritual leader Khomeini agreed to an Iraqi-proposed truce in August 20, thus ending the conflict. During the war, chemical weapons were used by both sides, child soldiers participated in it, Iran practiced the tactics of "live waves" (a variant of a psychic attack). During the "war of cities" the opponents fired rockets at each other's territories, causing XNUMX casualties among the civilian population. This conflict caused significant economic damage to both states and, although it influenced the subsequent world order in the Middle East, it still ended in nothing. No associations?
But back to our "dirty" vigorous loaf. Israel in 2010 became interested in this issue and conducted a 4-year series of tests, detonating about 20 "dirty bombs" filled with radioactive cobalt. The result they got was the same as Saddam Hussein's - it doesn't work. Do you think that this did not work for stupid Jews, but for smart Ukrainians it will work, so much so that Putin will scurry to Moscow? Are you not funny yourself?
Therefore, there is only one conclusion here - the “dirty bomb” does not exist in nature, the Kremlin tried to prevent the Ukrainian-British false flag provocation in order to accuse Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons. Since British Defense Minister Ben Wallace promised Shoigu to provide all possible support in this, and subsequently we did not hear anything more about the “dirty bomb”, the only conclusion that can be drawn from this is that Moscow has achieved its goal. By publicizing this fact, she preempted her opponent and made such a provocation inappropriate. The result of the most primitive, banal investigation would lead the investigators to themselves, since radioactive substances have a signature, which, like fingerprints, can determine where they were produced. Any IAEA inspection will immediately detect a shortage of radioactive materials, to which the creators of the "dirty bomb" will simply have nothing to answer.
Other "small" events
We figured out the "dirty bomb" - the game is not worth the candle, a false alarm. Let's move on to other, in comparison with the bomb, smaller events that took place this and the previous week, which, however, deserve to be said about them separately, because from these grains a complete picture of what is happening is formed.
Earlier this month, on November 4, the US Department of Defense announced a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine. Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, said this at a press briefing. The new package includes funding for the modernization of the Hawk air defense missiles, which will complement the assistance from Spain, which recently transferred similar air defense systems (2 pieces) to Ukraine. In addition, the United States will finance the modernization of 45 Czech T-72 tanks, the repair of another 45 T-72s will be paid for by the Netherlands (in total, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive 90 Czech tanks modernized at Dutch enterprises, the first 26 of which will arrive in Ukraine in December). Also in this package, the United States will transfer 250 M1117 armored personnel carriers, 1100 Phoenix Ghost drones, 40 armored river boats and tactical secure communications and surveillance systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Of all the above military scrap, only the allocation of 40 river armored boats to Ukraine attracts attention, which leads to sad thoughts about where the military activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will move. We are waiting for provocations and raids on the Dnieper, along its entire length along the line of contact between the parties from Zaporozhye to Kherson. Russia should already think about redeploying a number of ships of a certain class of the Caspian Flotilla to the Dnieper (we are talking about artillery boats of projects 1204 Shmel and 1400M Grif and landing boats of projects 1176 Shark and 11770 Chamois).
As for the MIM-23 Hawk medium-range air defense systems, if I tell you that this anti-aircraft product was developed back in 1954, you yourself will understand what kind of garbage their overseas curators supply their partners with. And although the complex has been modernized several times since then, this did not prevent the Americans from decommissioning it 30 years ago, in 1994, replacing it with the MIM-104, the same Patriot that their non-brothers have been asking them for a long time. Even the ILC (United States Marine Corps) abandoned the Hawk in 2002, switching to the Stingers (this is a portable line-of-sight air defense system with infrared guidance). The analogues of this junk are our still Soviet S-125 Neva / Pechora and 2K12 Kub / Kvadrat air defense systems, but even they are head and shoulders above their American counterpart. At the same time, the cost of one rocket used by him is equal to a quarter of a million dollars, and the complex itself costs 15 million. And all this non-brothers “hawk”. How will they pay for the rearmament of Spain, is it not clear?
Regarding the M1117 armored personnel carrier, this is a relatively new four-wheel drive all-wheel drive armored all-terrain vehicle, developed in 1999 for the needs of the military police. Crew - 3 people, weight - 14,4 tons, armament - 40 mm Mk 19 heavy grenade launcher and two machine guns - 12,7 mm M2HB and M240 rifle caliber. An analogue of our BRDM-2, only 2 times heavier. He won't make the weather at the front, but he won't spoil the porridge either. But Phoenix Ghost drones are more serious weapons. In fact, this loitering munition, developed by the American company Aevex Aerospace, has the same capabilities as the similar Switchblade munition developed by AeroVironment. It can be used for reconnaissance (the resource of being in the air is 6 hours), but its main purpose is attacking. The drone is effective against medium-armored ground targets, can take off vertically, is compact (fits in a backpack), all-weather, suitable for use at night (equipped with infrared sensors).
As you can see, non-brothers are being prepared for war day and night. The military budgets of the Russian Federation and Ukraine are already almost equal, thanks to the efforts of the United States and K *, the military budget of Ukraine at the moment is 86% of the annual military budget of the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the NMD, the United States alone has provided $18,9 billion in aid to Kyiv, and together with its allies, $53 billion. At the recently completed (November 16) next Ramstein-7, only Canada allocated winter ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for half a billion dollars. Just think about these numbers! Half a billion dollars just for winter clothes! About melee air defense systems (4 pcs. M1097 Avenger air defense systems), HMMWV armored vehicles (100 pcs.), 120-mm mines (10 thousand), shells for 155-mm artillery (21,5 thousand. Greece gives, among which five thousand high-precision) and missiles for the MLRS "Haymars" (number not specified), I'm already silent. The Germans, they just forked half a yard of money for this, and leave us alone (most likely, it was they who financed the Canadian winter ammunition), and the Swedes, they wanted to personally collect a “transfer” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 270 million dollars. For the United States, this aid package was the 25th withdrawal of weapons from the US Department of Defense stocks for Ukraine since August 2021.
From all of the above, we can make an unambiguous conclusion that the peak of the escalation, apparently, has not yet been reached. If we soon see German Leopard-2 tanks and American Abrams tanks in Ukraine, plus long-range missiles for Hymars with a coverage radius of 300 km+, then this will mean a new escalation round and the US desire to drag out the war until 2027 . Why until 2027? Because it is in 5 years that China will be able to resist the United States in the military sphere, they need to take us out of the game before that time. So to speak, secure the rear. And it is difficult to blame them for this, as they say, nothing personal - just business.
Against this background, the approval of the Bulgarian parliament for the transfer of heavy weapons to Ukraine looks like just baby talk on the lawn. Prior to that, they did the same under the guise of military exports to Poland, which immediately transported it to Ukraine. Now, apparently, vile little brothers decided not to hide. And why hide, we are going to a holy cause - to wet the Russians! Ungrateful creatures - I have no other words for them. That in the First World War, that in the Second, these creatures fought against us. Probably in gratitude for the liberation from the Ottoman yoke.
Somehow, against the backdrop of all these events, everyone forgot about the resignation of the loser Liz Truss, who, at the end of her brilliant 44-day career as the English prime minister, disgraced herself with her SMS to a friend - US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken - with the words "It's done!" I sent it from my iPhone a minute after our Nord Streams were blown up. Now we can say that it was a fake. Yes, Maria Zakharova trolled the downed pilot. And it doesn’t matter that the source of information of the speaker of the Russian Foreign Ministry referred to the hacked phone of the British Prime Minister, which, after the hacking since the summer, was in a sealed safe awaiting an investigation (Lise Truss worked as Minister of Foreign Affairs at the time of the hack and in the fall, when did not have access to a telephone). That's not the point at all. And what exactly, explained the former head of the Israeli secret service "Nativ" Yakov Kedmi. He explained that the perpetrators, especially those who undermine the international infrastructure, do not use the generally accepted channels of communication and information exchange. There are closed channels of communication for this. Going on air, especially using the country's prime minister for this, is not something that is unprofessional - it is generally devoid of any sense. Think at your leisure, why did Blinken need this information? What should he do with her? The next morning, all the newspapers reported about it. Why couldn't he fall asleep without this text message? Moreover, it was daytime in America at that time (the difference with London is 5 hours).
But the problems of Liz Truss, who has already lost her post, pale in comparison to the problems that await our "offended sausage" Olaf Scholz in the near future. Trying to delay them, he rushed to China in early November, where a cold shower awaited him (in the figurative sense of the word). This was the first visit to the PRC in three years by the leader of a Western state and the first after the election of Comrade. Xi for a third term. Scholz had been warned that there would be no warm bath for him, but he obviously did not expect such a cold shower either. If you say that he was humiliated there in full, then it means to say nothing about him, they simply wiped his feet there with all the Chinese deceit and courtesy. "Sausage" flew for 20 hours to China with a delegation of 70 people from industrialists and bankers, among whom were the heads of Volkswagen, BMW, BASF, Bayer and Deutsche Bank, so that they would not even talk to them there. No, they were not starved there, they were treated to tea and coffee, but everything was done in 2 hours, although the visit itself took 11 hours. The explanation is simple - in China, covid and the strictest security measures, the leaders of the states were separated by a table five meters long, the entire German delegation was kept in a closed cocoon, and there was not even a question of shaking hands with Chairman Xi. Politely nodded their heads - and on the way back. What the hell were flying, no one understood!
And at the same time, when the PRC wiped their feet on the “offended sausage”, the next meeting of the United States with its sixes, the so-called G7, took place, where, for some incomprehensible reason, Australia also nailed. The summit was held at the level of foreign ministers in the old German town of Münster (North Rhine-Westphalia). Germany, which chairs the G7 this year, was represented by Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock, apparently judging by the advances given to her at the meeting by her colleagues in the closed club, the future chancellor of what will remain of the FRG after this year. We thought that it couldn't be worse than Scholz, but it turns out that it happens, apparently, the Germans have not yet drunk their cup to the bottom.
The main issue discussed at the summit was (you'll never guess!) Russia's armed "aggression" against independent Ukraine. I have only one question - independent of whom? Or, most likely, why? Seems like common sense. But we're getting off topic. They discussed the price ceiling for Russian oil, which should come into force at the end of this month (it has not yet been named, but will be floating, not tied to oil quotes). Its members of the closed club and Australia, which joined them, tried to link it with the 8th package of sanctions from the EU, which provides for limiting the price ceiling for trading in Russian oil supplied by sea, and which will come into force on December 5.
I have a feeling that from December 5 we all will face such a tsunami of prices for oil and oil products, which these figures of the international policy didn't even dream. Any restriction on sales of Russian oil will instantly lead to an inevitable increase in its prices. And jumpy. The most invisible hand of the market will work there, which reacts with a rise in prices for a scarce commodity. And the fact that Russia will not trade oil at a loss, so do not go to a fortune teller. And if Vladimir Putin turns off the gas valve in the EU, then Europe will have fun days. Biden, too, will not escape this cup - the price of gasoline and other petroleum products will jump there as a result of jumping oil prices. How Grandpa Joe will make up for her lack, I personally have no idea. And if, by the end of this year, the winter offensive of the RF Armed Forces, reinforced by the "Siberian divisions" of recruits, will also begin, then this can break all Biden's plans to pacify Russia through the hands of her stupid neighbors.
In general, wait and see. This concludes the review of cases in the Ukrainian madhouse and the international space adjacent to it. All patience and peace. Your Mr. Z