Moscow and Minsk will have to go against the "Union State" of Ukraine and Poland

After the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, the mood of many of our compatriots, who are sincerely worried about the course of the special operation in Ukraine, has noticeably fallen, and no wonder. The abandonment of the bridgehead on the Right Bank to the enemy closed the road to the strategically important Nikolaev and Odessa before the RF Armed Forces, which should have been liberated at the very initial stage of the NMD as a matter of priority. However, even now all is not lost, and we can emerge victorious from this armed conflict.

"Arrows on the map"

About what the further actions of our General Staff could be, we tried in detail reason previously. In the bottom line, it turned out that the RF Armed Forces will have to choose which part of Ukraine, divided in half by the Dnieper, which is insurmountable in the face of fire opposition from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will have to focus on. There are only two options, respectively.

The first is to focus on the Left Bank, subsequently including it into the Russian Federation with a border along the Dnieper, or creating on its territory a new, pro-Russian “Ukrainian Federation” (the name can be anything), together with which we will later liberate and denazify the Pravoberezhnaya. This scenario is quite working, but for its implementation it is necessary now to stay in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, repelling all attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction. After that, it is necessary to strengthen the Russian grouping at the expense of reservists and go on a large-scale counteroffensive on the Left Bank, surrounding and forcing the garrisons of cities cut off from supply to surrender. The second wave of mobilization in the RF Armed Forces sometime in December-January seems inevitable.

The second option is to make a "knight's move", abruptly breaking the opponent's whole game. To do this, from the territory of Western Belarus, it is necessary to deliver a powerful blow to Western Ukraine, surrounding and besieging the cities of Lutsk, Rovno, Lvov and Uzhgorod. This is how you can cut off the Kyiv regime from the supply of weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuels and lubricants from the countries of the NATO bloc, providing Russia with a strategic victory. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will then shoot off the accumulated arsenals, and this will objectively curtail their activity, instead of a large-scale war, a series of guerrilla wars will come, but this is a completely different story. We also discussed in detail earlier how the Russian grouping would not fall under a flank attack and not end up in several "cauldrons" near the Polish border.

The “bottlenecks” in this scenario are the ambiguous position of official Minsk and the general unwillingness of Belarus and its population to get involved in a large-scale war with neighboring Ukraine, as well as a clear shortage of forces in the Joint Grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. To strike at Volhynia and Galicia, so that it does not become an outright adventure, we need not tens, but hundreds of thousands of military personnel with enough equipment and supply. It is a dangerous business that requires serious preparation, intelligence and planning.

Alas, we are not seriously considering the third scenario with simultaneous actions both on the Left Bank and on the Right Bank from the territory of Belarus. So far, there simply are not enough forces, as well as weapons and ammunition, to supply them for such a large-scale operation of a multimillion-strong group. It’s not very pleasant to quote this person, but the “oracle” of Ukrainian propaganda Aleksey Arestovich quite accurately drew parallels with the Great Patriotic War:

They just don't have enough people. They pinned down to seize Ukraine with 170 thousand. And Stalin at one time, in order to conquer all this, created 4 Ukrainian fronts numbering 2,5 million people.

That's just not to "capture", but to release, Lesha! So which option for the liberation of Ukraine would be more appropriate to choose?

If you work for a long time, for the future, then more rational it would be first to liberate the Left Bank, creating a "buffer" state between Right-Bank Ukraine and Russia - the "Ukrainian Federation" with a pro-Russian puppet government and its own Ukrainian Volunteer Army. Divide and rule. Having accumulated a sufficient number of forces, the RF Armed Forces, NM LDNR and UDar ​​could go to Kyiv and enter the Right-Bank Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

The script is really good and it could work if we had that time to play long. But, alas, Russia does not have another 8 years for new "multi-move".

"Union State" of Ukraine and Poland

As we detail told earlier, Moscow has a very serious competitor in Ukraine - Warsaw, which is catastrophically underestimated. And this despite the fact that Poland, unlike the Russian Federation, has its own sane integration project for the post-war Independent - "Trimorye".

Polish citizens have now received, thanks to President Zelensky, the same rights as Ukrainians. Polish business has come a long time ago and is only getting stronger in Western Ukraine. A lot of "volunteers" from the Poles are already fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It would be foolish not to notice that the former Square is being more and more absorbed and integrated by neighboring Poland day by day, uniting against the “common enemy” in the face of Russia. In the future, another "union" between Kyiv and Warsaw, or a confederal union of Ukraine and Poland, is visible.

And this is a very dangerous trend both for our country and for our allied Belarus.

Just imagine for a moment the Polish-Ukrainian confederation, and even as part of Trimorya. It will be a huge country with a serious resource base and access to two seas at once - the Baltic and the Black. To the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, according to some estimates, has reached 750 thousand people, but will be increased even more in response to partial mobilization in Russia, then it will be necessary to add the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland, which have been brought to 300 thousand, more precisely, to 400 thousand, if count the TerDefense forces. These are very, very serious numbers!

At the same time, it should be taken into account that Warsaw is only increasing its defense spending, intending to bring it up to 4% of GDP, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said:

Poland next year is likely to be in first place, for sure - in the top three NATO countries in terms of defense spending.

This money will be used to purchase the most modern offensive weapons: 32 American fifth-generation F-35 fighters, 3 HIMARS MLRS divisions, 8 batteries of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, 250 Abrams tanks of the most modern modification, as well as 180 South Korean tanks K2 Black panther”, more than 212 K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers and 48 FA-50 combat training aircraft. This military equipment will arrive in Poland in the coming years, and the first two dozen modern K2 tanks made in South Korea have already been delivered and deployed to the borders of the Kaliningrad region.

In addition to the already existing four divisions of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland, an additional two new ones are being created, and they are deployed near the borders of the Russian exclave and Belarus. It is no coincidence that in Minsk they are very tense about these frank military preparations. Major General Valery Gnilozub, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces for Combat Control of the Republic of Belarus, commented on them as follows:

This is political a course that clearly indicates Warsaw's preparation for a war, and not a defensive one, as the Polish military-political leadership is trying to present. It is no coincidence that it plans to increase military spending to a level of at least 3% of GDP and bring the size of the national armed forces to 300 people.

To sum up what has been said, the "Union State" of Ukraine and Poland, which is being formed right before our eyes, in the foreseeable future will pose a very real threat to both Russia and Belarus with its western regions. Therefore, despite the carefully declared peacefulness and neutrality of the official Minsk, its entry into the war in Ukraine seems to be a foregone conclusion. Problems are best addressed at an early stage.

Consequently, the scenario with the transfer of actions to the Right Bank of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus with its active participation seems more realistic.
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  1. Kklk Offline Kklk
    Kklk (Michael) 20 November 2022 17: 36
    That's just not to "capture", but to release, Lesha!

    Well, Sergey, they just gave an honest quote, so they immediately spoiled it.
    Still, it will be correct to capture, and not “liberate”.
    No matter how you try to pick up words, but still there is an attempt to seize a sovereign state by Russia. Even if for absolutely understandable geopolitical reasons.
    Why tongue-tied, call a spade a spade.
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 20 November 2022 18: 26
      Why tongue-tied, call a spade a spade

      Ukraine is a "sovereign state" ... de jure, de facto - a semi-colony of the United States. ;-(
      1. Kklk Offline Kklk
        Kklk (Michael) 20 November 2022 19: 20
        Well, there is an attempt by Russia to take over the US semi-colony to make it their semi-colony.
        That would be fair too.
        1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
          Michael L. 20 November 2022 19: 36
          Don't nuk, don't harness

          Where is the Russian Federation, and where is the USA?
          The world was on the verge of the Third World War when J. Kennedy became furious at the appearance of Soviet missiles in Cuba.
          Did, accordingly, the Russian Federation did not demand guarantees that NATO missiles would not be deployed on the adjacent Ukrainian territory?
          So: the Russian "semi-colony" Ukraine - will not pose a missile threat to the United States!
          In addition: if - "for absolutely understandable geopolitical reasons" - Ukraine declared its non-bloc status - Russian "colonization" would immediately stop!
          "That would be fair too!" ;-(
    2. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 20 November 2022 22: 14
      Kklk, with all my negative attitude towards the author, with his release - I will support 100% And you most likely have not yet realized what our troops - Russia is doing on their ancestral lands? I will enlighten you - Russia is liberating its ancestral lands from Ukrainian fascists. And he does this so that they will never be there again. Well, just in case - sovereign states have been created for centuries and proving for centuries by the forces of their people and their leaders - by the armed forces their ability to resist external invaders, defending their freedom, sovereignty and the right to life. What territories has Ukraine conquered over the entire period of its existence, can you tell me? For what territories did she shed blood defending this very Ukrainian sovereignty? Russia gave her everything and even the name of statehood - Ukraine was given its Russian territory not by Ukrainian hetmans and not by Polish lords, but by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin! Learn the History that was in fact and not someone for the sake of someone or something invented. so the author is right here we really release!
      1. Kklk Offline Kklk
        Kklk (Michael) 21 November 2022 22: 02
        I will enlighten you - Russia is liberating its ancestral lands from Ukrainian fascists.

        De facto and de jure, these are not Russian lands. Time passes, the territories of states change. Crimea was Greek, Kaliningrad was German. This does not mean that the Greeks and Germans can come to liberate the ancestral lands from the villains who captured them.
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 22 November 2022 22: 59
          (Mikhail) Well, yes, all Europeans and even blacks in the United States need to be expelled and given land to local Indians, who are being exterminated by barbarously infested semi-criminal immigration. Where is justice Mikhail Kklk?
          1. Kklk Offline Kklk
            Kklk (Michael) 23 November 2022 10: 03
            And then you need to expel the Russians from Chukotka, Buryatia, and other national republics, following your logic
            1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 25 November 2022 00: 14
              The whole problem is that the Chukchi and Buryats live perfectly on their own land and in self-government, here the Indians of North America are all exterminated, and a small fraction of those who remain on the reservation. Is the difference not clear?
  2. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 20 November 2022 19: 45
    the Poles must be warned if the Polish woodpeckers dare to send in troops, and even more so to take part on the side of the dill. then the first strike on Warsaw with a hyper Dagger will be 5kt power), the second 10kt ... and so on until they withdraw their troops. you also need to warn the US Zionists - if they place their nuclear bombs in Poland, then the possible use (by the Poles) of their bombs in Ukraine will end with a retaliatory nuclear strike by an "unknown" submarine on Washington (you can attack with a volley of Zircons or Onyxes with apples). I am sure the US Zionists, out of fear for themselves, will throw a straitjacket on their stupid Polish dogs. but I'm not sure that the Tsar will dare to run into his "partners" like that, and cowardly silence can provoke the United States and their dogs into actions that, in any case, will have to be answered. the enemy, like water, climbs where there are no obstacles, or where he does not see them, so you need to help the enemy see.
    due to the possible insanity of the Poles (the sea is knee-deep for fools), it is dangerous to introduce a Russian group from Belarus to the Zapadenschina, it can be surrounded by Poles and Bandera. and become the subject of Kremlin blackmail. it is necessary to gradually move to the West, as in the years of the Second World War, taking significant forces of the Russian Army into semi-coverages around the cities and parts of Bandera, forcing them to retreat or take them immediately into boilers in order to withdraw significant parts of Bandera from hostilities (in small towns, villages, towns), and thus get rid of the volatile and stubborn assaults on small settlements fortified points, with a large expenditure of shells.
  3. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 November 2022 22: 08
    This time, the author let us down with his lack of understanding of what is happening in the NWO. There are no offensives at all, fortified lines are being created to protect against fleeing citizens from the collapse of the Ukrainian statehood, which will run in millions in different directions, that way in January-February. Perhaps some kind of military action to withdraw from Donetsk, but no more. We will wait until the fruit is finally ripe and falls on the ground. Only you need to water the KR and other geraniums diligently and constantly.
  4. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 21 November 2022 01: 07
    I put a plus to the respected author, but I can’t resist and quote:

    It is a dangerous business that requires serious preparation, intelligence and planning.

    It is dangerous precisely because, apart from Sergei, only the lazy one is not considering the same possibility now. I am sure that the Americans are prepared and simply will not give us such an opportunity. They will take any action - they will shove the Poles into the Republic of Belarus, whistle their "screeching eagles" into the territory of the fallow land from Romania, slam a dirty bomb on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant - they will come up with another trick, but will not let us chop off the fertile lands there acquired by American companies long ago ((
    At least for now, at least for the foreseeable future, until favorable conditions ripen, until either the NATO alliance weakens, or the states themselves within, or China opens a second, Taiwanese, front.
  5. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline Yuri Bryanskiy
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 21 November 2022 07: 02
    Eh, Sergei, with your mouth and honey to drink. Do we think there at least something???
  6. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 21 November 2022 13: 39
    Russia needs to legislate that the entire territory of Ukraine, seized by the separatists with the help of NATO, is an integral part of Russia.
    Assigning the status of the territory of Ukraine, that this is the territory of Russia, will transfer the NMD into a counter-terrorist operation (CTO), i.e. all hostilities will take place inside the state of the Russian Federation, and this is a different legal basis, which will lead to the rapid disappearance of the war in Ukraine, people will stop killing each other.
    The law will not allow Ukraine to quickly join NATO. The law will not allow NATO to intervene, to introduce troops from Poland, Romania, Hungary into the territory of Ukraine, and the annexation of Ukraine by these countries will automatically disappear. The law will not allow to conclude a confederal treaty between Ukraine and Poland, which is part of NATO, and Ukraine will not be able to become a member of NATO. The law will not allow the United States to blackmail and launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
  7. Jstas Offline Jstas
    Jstas (jstas) 21 November 2022 14: 06

    Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are writing to you on behalf of all residents of the Belgorod Region:
    Our region is subjected to daily shelling from the Kharkiv region. Our houses are being destroyed, civilians are dying. Including children. Many border villages have been completely destroyed. People were left homeless.
    We live in constant fear for the lives of our children and grandchildren.
    Children do not have the opportunity to attend school and receive a normal education.
    To our appeals to the military to clean up the Kharkiv region, they answer that they CAN'T DO IT WITHOUT ORDERS!

    Therefore, we appeal to you, Vladimir Vladimirovich, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief: PROTECT OUR LONG-SUFFERING BELGOROD REGION!
    We supported you when the Russian Army came to the defense of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
    We, as volunteers, help our soldiers in every way we can, sparing no effort and effort. We share the latest with them and firmly believe in the Victory of the Russian Federation!

    P.S. Note that no one is talking about stopping CBO. Everyone understands the need to destroy fascism at their side. But it is time to solve this problem and move the line of contact away from the Russian borders.