How the course of the SVO in Ukraine will be affected by the “shell hunger”


Recently, in the domestic media, one can see numerous comments in the spirit of the fact that we do not need to rush to defeat Ukraine, and time itself allegedly works for Russia. Say, the tactics of the “barrage of fire” will allow the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to liberate Donbass without unnecessary losses, and then Nezalezhnaya, left without light and heat, of course, will once again “fall apart on its own”. Unfortunately, this statement is very far from the true state of affairs.


"Shell Hunger"


If we analyze the course of the special operation in Ukraine, we can see a sharp change in the strategy of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces after the withdrawal of troops from Kyiv. If at the initial stage of the NMD our army acted according to the canons of the Second World War with its swift strikes with armored fists deep into the territory of the enemy, then in the Donbass it switched to the tactics of the "barrage" of the First World War.

Russian artillery has been methodically demolishing Ukrainian fortified areas for more than half a year, throwing out a huge amount of shells of all types every day, and then our infantry enters the ruins to clear them. The fact that everything is going according to plan was personally stated by President Putin after the SCO summit in Uzbekistan last September:

Our offensive operation in the Donbas itself does not stop, it goes at a slow pace, but consistently, gradually, the Russian army occupies more and more new territories, I pay attention, we are not fighting with a full army, we are fighting only with part of the Russian army, only with a contract unit, well, of course, it is connected with certain parameters of the personnel and so on, so we are not in a hurry in this part.

Everything seems to be correct, losses among the military personnel of the RF Armed Forces are declining. However, the implementation of such tactics for a long time rests on the resource base of our country, but there are certain difficulties with this. More and more reports appear that the notorious "shell hunger" has recently been outlined at the front. This sad fact confirmed, in particular, Vladimir Prokhvatilov, senior researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences of the Russian Federation, in a conversation with the Public Service News:

If the American army directly fought with us now, it would be there. No one in the world counted on a high-intensity war between equal armies, no one prepared for this.

According to him, the decrease in the activity of the “barrage of fire” is associated with a shortage of shells of certain calibers, as well as with the wear of artillery barrels. And this is a very worrying trend.

"Soviet galoshes"


It's no secret that Russia today is fighting on the Soviet legacy that Vladimir Putin once spoke so dismissively of. The problem is that Soviet reserves are not unlimited. The RF Armed Forces shot well at one time in both Chechen campaigns, then in Georgia in 2008. The “voentorg” has been working in Donbass since 2014. There was a consumption of ammunition during the special operation in Syria. Something was sold abroad for export in the "dashing 90s", something was disposed of, something exploded during fires in the warehouses of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

During the NMD in Ukraine, on “hot” days, Russian artillery fires from 40 to 60 shells of various calibers, and during a “lull” - about 24. That is, for a day in the direction of the enemy, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation release 50-60 railway cars loaded to the top with shells. In addition, there is a serious problem with the wear of gun barrels, the resource of which, alas, is not infinite. Artillery rifled barrels, depending on the caliber and type of projectile, have a resource of 2000-3000 rounds, tank barrels - from 210 rounds of armor-piercing sub-caliber rounds and up to 840 rounds of high-explosive fragmentation and cumulative rounds.

In other words, the “barrage of fire” tactics chosen by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces require an exceptionally powerful material andtechnical bases. But we have another problem with this, and very serious ones.

On the one hand, many Russian military-industrial complex enterprises purchased modern foreign equipment in the fat 2014s, which in itself can only be welcomed. The Kazan Gunpowder Plant bought equipment in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, the Federal Research and Production Center "Altai", "Motovilikhinskiye Zavody" and other manufacturers of artillery, and developers and manufacturers of gunpowder and solid rocket fuels did the same. On the other hand, after the start of the anti-Russian sanctions war in XNUMX, the maintenance and timely repair of purchased imported equipment became more difficult, and dependence on foreign chemical components for the production of ammunition also arose. Plus, it is necessary to take into account the factor of "effective management", which has put a number of strategically important defense enterprises on the verge of bankruptcy and liquidation.

Whether the domestic military-industrial complex can quickly reproduce as many shells as they are spent at the front is a big question. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Western media, with references to their intelligence, report that Russia is now allegedly buying artillery shells from the DPRK. North Korea has powerful artillery of various calibers, and planned economy allows her to reproduce as much ammunition for her as needed without the “time shift to the right” that we are sick of. Let's hope that Iranian UAVs and ballistic missiles and North Korean shells will be enough to complete the liberation of Donbass, but then tactics, apparently, will again have to be changed to rapid breakthroughs and encirclements.

Also, do not flatter yourself with the fact that similar problems with "shell hunger" are now experiencing the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the countries of the NATO bloc standing behind them. Domestic media relish the complaints of Western military analysts that the existing stock of shells in the United States, Great Britain or France will only last one and a half to two weeks of high-intensity battles. Defense plants there, unlike the Russian Federation, remain intact, and production volumes can be quickly increased many times over. The financial year in the United States has just begun, and the American military-industrial complex will now receive funds to resume large-scale production of shells. So, it’s not worth counting on the fact that the “three axes” will be left without ammunition, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will stop terrorizing Donetsk.

If you look at the picture as a whole, then it is, frankly, frightening, since there are too many parallels with the First World War in the NWO. Then the Russian Empire got involved in it to help Serbia, and the Russian Federation stood up for the DPR and LPR. We have already received a “great retreat” in the Kyiv, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Kherson regions, now there is a “shell famine”. What's next?
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  1. Ru_Na Offline Ru_Na
    Ru_Na (Rustam) 19 November 2022 13: 06
    +4
    If you look at the picture as a whole, then it is, frankly, frightening, since there are too many parallels with the First World War in the NWO. Then the Russian Empire got involved in it to help Serbia, and the Russian Federation stood up for the DPR and LPR. We have already received a “great retreat” in the Kyiv, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Kherson regions, now there is a “shell famine”. What's next?

    And then an analogue of the Brusilov breakthrough and the exit of our industry to the mass production of weapons. It is no secret that in the last two years of the tsarist rule, our industry produced so many weapons that it was enough for the WWI to Brest and for the civilian one. We hope that the analogue of February 1917 will bypass us.
    1. Dust Offline Dust
      Dust (Sergei) 24 November 2022 14: 57
      0
      "Great Retreat" in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkov and Kherson regions

      According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, there was no retreat. There were great maneuvers!
  2. prior Online prior
    prior (Vlad) 19 November 2022 13: 32
    +9
    "shell hunger". What's next?

    And then the Great October Socialist Revolution 2.0.
    Oligarchs and leading managers - to the wall.
    (This is just a possible forecast of the development of the situation)
    1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 23 November 2022 10: 04
      0
      prior, dream can feel better.
  3. Jstas Offline Jstas
    Jstas (jstas) 19 November 2022 13: 51
    +5
    The point is to copy the war of 1812 and the burning of Moscow. After the burning of Moscow - the Russians will not suffer, Israel will declare a six-month mourning.
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 19 November 2022 14: 22
    +6
    What's next. Until Ukraine is cut off from the Black Sea, the war will continue indefinitely. To my regret, I do not see the prerequisites for an early victory.
    Shell hunger. Such a problem cannot be ignored. Better to be wrong than to be right. The author was the first to raise this issue, after the West. Maybe right?
    1. Grits Offline Grits
      Grits (Alexander) 20 November 2022 03: 29
      +2
      Quote: steel maker
      Until Ukraine is cut off from the Black Sea, the war will continue indefinitely.

      I believe that the abandonment of Kherson greatly contributed to "cutting off from the sea." Forget already about control over the sea, about Nikolaev and Odessa - they will remain Bandera and then - NATO. The strength of the second army of the world on the coast and these cities is not enough. Already under the Crimea, trenches are being dug
      1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 23 November 2022 10: 11
        0
        Gritsa, don't tell gop until you jumped over. Already next year, our troops will annex Pridnestrovie.
    2. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 23 November 2022 10: 08
      0
      Steelmaker, how does the author know how many shells are in the army? Did he count them? Probably, soon he will begin to lament about the cartridge hunger, and then in general about the hunger in the army. Will you believe too?
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 November 2022 14: 42
    +1
    Whether there is hunger, there is no hunger - the data is classified.
    If the tactic of "lunar landscapes" is chosen (and the media rejoiced at it), then nothing else remains ...
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 19 November 2022 19: 04
      +4
      Lunar landscapes, in addition to the low skill level of the gunners, are caused by firing from extreme distances, where they were driven by artillery reconnaissance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In turn, this leads to accelerated wear of artillery barrels, since the charges of gunpowder are limiting, and which in turn leads to a large dispersion of shells. In general, the problems are big.
      1. Dingo Offline Dingo
        Dingo (Victor) 20 November 2022 11: 21
        +1
        where they were driven by artillery reconnaissance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

        Why did she take them there?
        I will not now touch on Chemezov's pontorez from Rostec and his well, very effectively-defective "managers". Here the point is not only and not so much in it, but in the approach itself.
        Have you heard of the Krapiva fire control system?
        Created by volunteers (volunteers, Carl!!!) for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


        By and large, at the beginning of the special operation, both the Russian and Ukrainian armies used the same Soviet-designed artillery systems. But there was one significant difference in the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unfortunately, not in our favor. In recent years, the Krapiva artillery combat control system has been created in Ukraine.

        In Russia, work on such systems has also been going on for the last ten years. Billions of rubles were spent, but the important system never reached the troops in the right amount.

        The text of the article can be found at the link below:

        https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/11/19/eksperty-rasskazali-kak-krapiva-usilila-ukrainskuyu-artilleriyu.html
        1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 23 November 2022 10: 16
          -2
          Dingo, is it with the help of Nettle that the Ukrofascists do not smear hospitals and schools on residential buildings? The snipers have nothing to say.
          1. Dingo Offline Dingo
            Dingo (Victor) 24 November 2022 23: 45
            0
            Oleg Georgievich,

            residential buildings hospitals and schools

            these ... hit purposefully.
            I know what I'm talking about - a tribe, half a nickname of OMON, was THERE with his guys from March to June, north of the Kharkov direction ...
            The neighboring village was ripped apart at night ... Almost completely ... And none of ours was there - neither riot policemen, nor army men ...
  6. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 19 November 2022 16: 41
    +2
    The ratio of the economy, industry of the enemy and ours 20:1 is not in our favor. The authorities of the Russian Federation have already taken the direction and showed it to the whole world. The world is cruel, the strong are feared and respected, the weak are left no chance to survive, the weak will be finished off by everyone, both their own and others. The Russian Federation has only one way out, a complete victory over the whole of Ukraine, the inclusion of the entire territory of Ukraine into Russia, the liquidation of Ukraine as a state. Any other decision on Ukraine is the capitulation of the Russian Federation, which will lead to the disappearance of the Russian state in the future. Only a political move can change the situation with Ukraine. The political move of the Russian Federation is the announcement of the Russian Federation that the entire territory of Ukraine, captured by the separatists with the help of NATO, is an integral part of Russia.
  7. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
    Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 19 November 2022 19: 44
    +4
    In fact, the analogy suggests itself not so much with the First World War, but with the Russian-Japanese. With all the ensuing consequences. Moreover, after the first "grab the enemy's crown" they turned their tails and, announcing "cunning plans" and "gestures of goodwill", they simply did what they could. And so it goes on, you have to back away, burping the seized pieces. Groupings on the hillock are engaged in tug-of-war and agreements, and the army is twitching, not knowing who to listen to and what to do. Sorry for Donetsk. They are serious about everything.
    1. Grits Offline Grits
      Grits (Alexander) 20 November 2022 03: 31
      +1
      Quote: Vasya 225
      In fact, the analogy suggests itself not so much with the First World War, but with the Russian-Japanese.

      Maybe not Tsushima yet, but clearly already Mukden
      1. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
        Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 20 November 2022 12: 14
        -1
        Tsushima has already been - the cruiser "Moscow".
  8. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 19 November 2022 19: 59
    +1
    How the course of the SVO in Ukraine will be affected by the “shell hunger”

    No way. Our political leadership will hold back the operation until the West of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throws shells.
  9. lance Offline lance
    lance 19 November 2022 20: 31
    +1
    don't want to get involved. but who persistently informs about the lack of ammunition of the main calibers is deeply mistaken. the reserves of the USSR were not used even by 25%. as for modern weapons. there are no problems in the components, which means tomorrow is ours.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 19 November 2022 21: 06
      +2
      Well, here it is: if we hear about the firing of Korean shells, then there is a problem. And from the wear of the trunks, and even more so from the destruction of guns, you can’t get anywhere. In addition, in the USSR, the main share of stocks was located in warehouses in the western districts. We are lucky that Ukraine has taken and sold a very large share of these reserves.
  10. anyname Offline anyname
    anyname (any name) 19 November 2022 23: 58
    +5
    As long as an insane old man is at the helm, imagining himself a chess player and not having elementary concepts of the dignity of the nation, there will be no victories.
    1. rus73 Offline rus73
      rus73 (rus qup) 20 November 2022 12: 54
      -1
      What dignity are you talking about? Do not be afraid of Navalno-liberal.
  11. Foe Pshekov Offline Foe Pshekov
    Foe Pshekov (Arkady) 20 November 2022 00: 54
    -2
    You can't do without a nuclear bomb. If only there was a war with the Ukrainians, they would have managed it themselves and quickly. But NATO assistance leaves no options. Either they give up themselves, or the loaf is vigorous.
  12. Anatoly Shalkin Offline Anatoly Shalkin
    Anatoly Shalkin (Anatoly Shalkin) 20 November 2022 01: 15
    -2
    Marzhetsky or alarmist .. or "alien * ....
    1. shinobi Offline shinobi
      shinobi (Yuri) 20 November 2022 11: 48
      -4
      He is an all-rounder. On the site, his opuses have long been treated as horror stories.
    2. Dingo Offline Dingo
      Dingo (Victor) 20 November 2022 12: 13
      +3
      Marzhetsky or alarmist .. or "alien * ....

      Rather, a "surgeon" who opens "abscesses" and "abscesses".
      Do you prefer "pathologist"?
    3. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
      Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 20 November 2022 12: 20
      +3
      Marzhetsky is an outstanding and courageous analyst. Not like TV balabols.
  13. Grits Offline Grits
    Grits (Alexander) 20 November 2022 03: 26
    -2
    The next step - fraternization at the front, then - the election of commanders, and in the end - bayonets to the ground, we go to the hut. And in the final - the arrest of the emperor and the decree on peace.
    1. AAA Offline AAA
      AAA (Andrei) 20 November 2022 06: 32
      +2
      do not wait
  14. Dart2027 Offline Dart2027
    Dart2027 20 November 2022 06: 33
    +3
    It's no secret that Russia today is fighting on the Soviet legacy that Vladimir Putin once spoke so dismissively.

    Yes, my dears, yes. No need to debate. The fact is that what we produced, and no need to wave your hands, was not needed by anyone, because no one bought our galoshes, except for the Africans, who had to walk on the hot sand. That's the whole point.
    We had a defense industry - cool, strong, and we are still proud of it. We are grateful to our grandfathers and our fathers for creating such a defense industry after the Great Patriotic War.
    Voice from the audience:
    - And the first satellite.
    V. V. Putin:
    - Both the first satellite and the first man in space are our common pride, these are the achievements of the Soviet regime, of which we are all proud. These are nationwide achievements.
  15. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 20 November 2022 11: 46
    +1
    I still believe about barrel wear, but shell hunger? The stocks of shells taken to warehouses from Germany alone will last us for a very long time. The question is not in quantity, but in the efficiency of use. This is another question.
  16. Dingo Offline Dingo
    Dingo (Victor) 20 November 2022 12: 08
    +1
    What's next?

    And then - total control over the enterprises of the military-industrial complex.
    PERSONAL responsibility for each direction in the development and production of "products".
    A regular financial report for every ruble spent from the budget (and not for the "girls from the harem" on Frunzenskaya Embankment, but for the Government commission).
    Any "selfish" interests of "interested persons" are outlawed (there are no "agreements" and "gestures" on the battlefield!).
    With regards to not only the military-industrial complex, but also all kinds of "optimizers" and "optimizers" there (enough, they "re-optimized", having ruined medicine and education).
    Say, "37 year"? And why not, since they don’t understand well? ...
  17. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 20 November 2022 12: 10
    0
    In general, I agree with the author.

    If at the initial stage of the NMD our army acted according to the canons of the Second World War with its swift strikes with armored fists deep into the territory of the enemy, then in the Donbass it switched to the tactics of the "barrage" of the First World War.

    In general, everything is so, but with certain reservations and a considerable degree of conventionality. At the first stage, there was a rapid advance, but there were no powerful blows, but there was a lack of forces and their support, poor preparation and planning. At the second stage, yes, there are more similarities with the REV and WWI ...
  18. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 20 November 2022 12: 18
    +1
    Such issues were resolved in the Second World War in the most difficult conditions. You can solve them today, but you need to abandon the rollback system and complete irresponsibility for not completing tasks. We need a new system of responsibility and strict control. But to be afraid to introduce it, because all the current managers are already running away and often with secrets, and in this case only a few will remain. Ask what is missing. The answer is simple - the political will of the Kremlin, which seems to be already confused and therefore not yet capable of an adequate response to the current situation.
  19. Pavel volkov Online Pavel volkov
    Pavel volkov (Pavel Volkov) 20 November 2022 19: 51
    0
    After reading the article, an idea popped into my head.
    The purpose of the NWO is to liberate the Donbass.
    And what if, Kherson, Zaporozhye is a red herring? Like, the enemy will spend forces, shells and people there. Will the RF Armed Forces stomp around the Donbass at this time?
    Although, perhaps he wrote nonsense
  20. wladimirjankov Offline wladimirjankov
    wladimirjankov (Vladimir Yankov) 21 November 2022 16: 02
    +1
    of course, if you shoot like we have been shooting for 8 months now, you won’t be able to stock up on any shells and missiles. It looks like they are firing on areas, in directions, on outdated intelligence, on points on maps. Video footage from the UAV shows the results of such shooting. Fields, clearings in vast territories where neither equipment, nor trenches and positions of the Nazis are visible are literally plowed up by craters from our shells and mines. Why and where they fired is not clear. The use of such shooting is not visible. One consumption of ammunition and barrel resource. If at least half of these wasted shells hit exactly on the positions of the Bandera under Avdiivka, it would have become ours long ago. But for this you need to have well-trained artillery crews who can point and shoot well, receive target coordinates online from UAVs, aircraft, satellites or their spotters located on the front line or as part of the DRG.
  21. Panzer1962 Offline Panzer1962
    Panzer1962 (Panzer1962) 21 November 2022 20: 38
    +1
    Believe the publication that NATO is on the verge of ammunition depletion? Well, well ... Do you seriously think that strategic information will be blurted out to journalists? After all, in exactly the same way we danced squatting that, they say, the dill stocks sold out all the stocks of ammunition, the rest burned down and exploded. But in fact, the Wehrmacht was coming out as it poured a hail of shells, primarily of Soviet calibers, and pours. And they thought that he had ammunition for three days of fighting.
    And we are speeding up the bankruptcy and demolition of Motovilikha. And this is not only MLRS, but also the barrels of 152-mm Msta howitzers, 152-mm D-20 howitzer guns and Acacia self-propelled guns. Business groups need territory for human stagnation, what the hell are trunks. Just like with BMD problems, VTZ razed to the ground, there will be an elite residential complex in its place, but the army will manage without BMD, the gesheft of business groups is above all.
    And officials from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Economic Development only mockingly sneer at the dreadfulness of the most important enterprises of the defense industry. And no one is going to seek justice on them, they are relatives or acquaintances of people very pleasant to the Kremlin, they will not touch such people, they will not even threaten them with a finger.
  22. Panzer1962 Offline Panzer1962
    Panzer1962 (Panzer1962) 21 November 2022 20: 41
    0
    Quote: wladimirjankov
    of course, if you shoot like we have been shooting for 8 months now, you won’t be able to stock up on any shells and missiles. It looks like they are firing on areas, in directions, on outdated intelligence, on points on maps. Video footage from the UAV shows the results of such shooting. Fields, clearings in vast territories where neither equipment, nor trenches and positions of the Nazis are visible are literally plowed up by craters from our shells and mines. Why and where they fired is not clear. The use of such shooting is not visible. One consumption of ammunition and barrel resource. If at least half of these wasted shells hit exactly on the positions of the Bandera under Avdiivka, it would have become ours long ago. But for this you need to have well-trained artillery crews who can point and shoot well, receive target coordinates online from UAVs, aircraft, satellites or their spotters located on the front line or as part of the DRG.

    Whatever the prepared calculations, without the proper means of reconnaissance and preparing data for firing, they will not be able to do anything worthwhile. And we are still preparing data on the PUO-9M and calculating the corrections on the PRK-69. Electronic PUO based on tablet computers is a pipe dream.