The expert predicted the course of the conflict in Ukraine in 2023


Intelligence analysts would probably laugh if they were told in March 2022 that Ukraine would still be an independent state eight months after the start of the Russian NMD. Shashank Joshi, a military expert, defense editor of the British magazine The Economist, wrote about this in his article, offering three of his scenarios for the further course of the conflict in Ukraine in 2023 to the public.


In his opinion, the scenarios he predicted are the most possible. However, their implementation depends on various concomitant factors.

According to the first scenario, the most favorable for the Russians, the RF Armed Forces will stabilize the front line in winter due to partial mobilization in the Russian Federation. In the United States, the Republicans will begin to actively prevent the Democrats from helping Kyiv, the Europeans will also signal that their stockpiles of weapons are running out. At the same time, the Russian military-industrial complex, despite sanctions and other difficulties, will be able to meet the needs of the RF Armed Forces.

In the spring, the Russian Armed Forces will begin to crowd out the Armed Forces of Ukraine, tired after many months of offensive operations. Moreover, the Russians will not stop striking at the energy and other infrastructure of Ukraine.

In the summer, the retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin, the Russian army will take control of Krivoy Rog on the Right Bank, as well as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the Donbass. Western countries will call on Kyiv to accept Moscow's proposal for a ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will have no choice but to agree.

In the following months, and perhaps even years, Russia is diligently rearming for a new attack on Kyiv.

- writes an expert.

The second scenario is less optimistic for Moscow, but, as the author argues, more realistic - this is a stalemate. Thanks to the partial mobilization of the RF Armed Forces, they will be able to create many battalions. However, such a significant number of personnel will not be able to properly equip and train. Consequently, Russian troops will not be able to move to effective offensive actions, but they will be able to conduct defensive battles. At the same time, “overheating” will be felt in the APU, and they will stop trying to move forward.

Having failed to win the war on the battlefield, Putin is trying to prolong it for a long time to undermine the economy Ukraine, break its morale with strikes on civilian infrastructure and deplete its partners

- argues the author.

He thinks that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to freeze the conflict in Ukraine, hoping for Donald Trump to win the US presidential election in November 2024. All this time, Europe will be more preoccupied with its own economic problems, one of which will be the constant search for sources of energy raw materials. it политическая a high-stakes game, as there is no guarantee that Trump will get the job and stop helping Ukraine. In addition, anti-war sentiment is growing in Russia due to the deteriorating economic situation, which makes the Kremlin's position vulnerable.

The third scenario, according to the author, is encouraging for Kyiv and at the same time the most dangerous. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will retain the initiative and offensive momentum. They will be able to overcome the defensive lines of the Russians in the Luhansk region. They regain control of Severodonetsk and move further east. At the same time, the West continues to pump weapons into Ukraine.

In the spring, Zelensky may order the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch an offensive on the Azov region. By summer, they will reach the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov and Mariupol, cutting off the land corridor from Russia to Crimea. The infrastructure of the Russians in Crimea is becoming vulnerable, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are threatening to invade the peninsula.

Mr. Putin issues an ultimatum: stop or face the use of nuclear weapons. Victory is not far off. But those are the risks it carries.

- sums up the author.
  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
17 comments
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 17 November 2022 16: 47
    +8
    The strategy is clearly built on computer games. There is no input of new data and circumstances that radically change the course of action. The economic and civil collapse in Ukraine with the collapse of the state's energy industry is not taken into account, therefore, after several months, it follows, - "Game over".
  2. Sergey3939 Offline Sergey3939
    Sergey3939 (Sergei) 17 November 2022 16: 55
    +9
    Notes from a crazy house!
  3. sgrabik Offline sgrabik
    sgrabik (Sergei) 17 November 2022 17: 08
    +6
    The author of this writing has some strange logic.
  4. Irek Offline Irek
    Irek (Paparazzi Kazan) 17 November 2022 17: 22
    +5
    This process will continue...

    1. Grits Offline Grits
      Grits (Alexander) 18 November 2022 06: 20
      0
      The Americans even have some kind of meat grinder, with an incomprehensible mechanism. they probably haven't seen them in 50 years
  5. The comment was deleted.
    1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
      soloist2424 (Oleg) 17 November 2022 17: 48
      0
      Why do you say so - they offered all residents to leave for Kherson, the authorities even insisted. Or did those who remained believe that they were slandering ukrov, and they were kind and fluffy, not at all Nazis? And I don’t think that “Russia doesn’t need Kherson, just like those who supported Russia” - Kherson residents are resettled in Russia, and housing prices are not raised, as in Lviv.
  6. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 17 November 2022 18: 47
    +1
    All three options are completely useless. How our president thinks and his subsequent actions can only be unraveled by the Lord God! Don't work at all. In any case - Our cause is just and Victory will be ours!
    1. Grits Offline Grits
      Grits (Alexander) 18 November 2022 06: 22
      0
      It seems to me that our President has been thinking worse and worse lately...
  7. passing by Offline passing by
    passing by (passing by) 17 November 2022 19: 27
    +1
    to finish off the energy of Saloreich and "not only everyone" will live until spring ...
  8. Dart2027 Offline Dart2027
    Dart2027 17 November 2022 20: 08
    +3
    Intelligence analysts would probably laugh if they were told in March 2022 that Ukraine would still be an independent state eight months after the start of the Russian NWO.

    The word "independent" is really laughable.
  9. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 17 November 2022 20: 26
    +1
    The second option is quite possible. Ukraine's problem is resources, and the West will get tired of replenishing them without the risk of unrest at home. Russia seems to have enough resources, the problem is only with political leadership, military intelligence, strategic planning and modern tactical weapons - a lot, as you can see. Other versions of the development of events seem less plausible to me.
  10. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 17 November 2022 23: 19
    +3
    I think there will be a 4 (fourth) option, or rather 0 (zero). Which will be even better for Russia and worse for Ukraine than the first. In 2-3 weeks, the energy sector of Ukraine will be completely destroyed, all enterprises will stand up and, if not hunger, then something will begin next to this. Because not only food enterprises will not work, but also shops, and the money will run out on their hands. And the banks will close. All 300 mobilized + volunteers will go into operation. And they will drive the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the West. And people in the EU will run ahead of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to the delight of the Arabs, blacks and other unemployed in Europe. Those areas where Russia enters, both energy and enterprises will be restored there, oil and gas will go and there will be work .. But it will no longer be Ukraine. So by the spring there will be no Ukraine as a state.
  11. Maxim Rv Offline Maxim Rv
    Maxim Rv (Maxim Rv) 17 November 2022 23: 35
    +1
    Brad, I disagree. Everything will be as it should be. It's hard, but we'll still come to victory. No other way.
  12. Alexey P. Offline Alexey P.
    Alexey P. (Alexey P.) 18 November 2022 09: 17
    0
    fortune-telling on coffee grounds ... you can add five more such options ...
  13. Samno Marr Offline Samno Marr
    Samno Marr (Samno Marr) 19 November 2022 16: 21
    0
    experts predicted the capture of Kyiv in a few days and the collapse of Ukraine in two months.
  14. mechanic Offline mechanic
    mechanic (Yuri) 19 November 2022 17: 27
    0
    No one else will advance anywhere, both sides are exhausted, there is no motivation here and there.
    Khokhols do not want to die for the eastern regions, which have always supported Russia, and the Russians do not understand why they should die for new territories.
    Do we have little territory?
    Therefore, most likely a certain status quo will come, the parties will strengthen in the existing territories and stop active hostilities.
    After that, long and tedious negotiations will begin, which will drag on for years.
    And something will more or less be resolved only after a complete change of the Russian leadership, perhaps after the 2024 elections.
  15. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline Yuri Bryanskiy
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 24 November 2022 15: 59
    0
    Did you write to Kherson?