After the NWO, relations between Russia and Ukraine will follow the Indo-Pakistani scenario

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The “great retreat” that the Russian army launched in Ukraine, first in the Kharkiv region, then in the Donbass, and now in the Kherson region, was a real shock and a “break in patterns” for most of our compatriots who were not mentally prepared for such a turn of the special operation. However, for those who closely followed the events in Novorossia, watered with tears of unfulfilled hopes, from February 20, 2014 to February 24, 2022, all this was not some kind of surprise.

We did warn


The fact that the war in Ukraine was a foregone conclusion and inevitable, the author of the lines has repeatedly written over the past eight years, constantly and consistently calling for not allowing the enemy to strengthen, solving the problem of the Kyiv regime in a timely manner, until it costs both sides of the rivers of spilled blood. On May 5, 2015, a publication was published on the Military Review portal, which our dear readers can read at link. There were, in particular, such words about the annexation of Crimea without the rest of Ukraine:



It is impossible to take a part of a foreign state, leaving the Nazi, Russophobic junta, supported by external forces, in power in the rest of the state!

It was possible to take Crimea only by placing in one form or another in Kyiv their pro-Russian proteges, who, relatively speaking, would sign a paper that they respect the will of the inhabitants of Crimea and have no territorial claims.

The return of Crimea in the form in which it was done is a territorial dispute and a reinforced concrete pretext for a full-fledged war...

DNR and LNR are not recognized. The idea of ​​Novorossia is buried, no one will now create either the Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk or Odessa people's republics. Calling certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions Novorossia is an elementary substitution of concepts ...

As you can see, we did not manage to avoid the war. What was done in the period from 2014 to 2022 in order to neutralize the threat posed by a neighboring state with a neo-Nazi regime, which is under the external control of our geopolitical opponents represented by the Anglo-Saxons?

Nothing. On the contrary, Moscow traded with Kyiv, supplying, in particular, fuel for tanks and armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which terrorized the Donbass for eight years and, by the way, are still doing this, in the ninth month of the NMD. Even worse, the Kremlin has stubbornly refused to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR all these years, insisting on their return to Ukraine on “special conditions.” At the same time, President Putin personally recognized the Minsk agreements as “no alternative”. Here is a quote from January 11, 2022:

We spoke in detail with Mrs. Merkel about the settlement of the intra-Ukrainian crisis. According to mutual opinion, the Minsk agreements remain an uncontested basis for normalizing the situation in the south-east of Ukraine.

However, in February 2022, it suddenly became clear that an alternative still exists, only time was mediocrely lost. While the Kremlin was busy with its “multi-move moves”, and the Ground Forces of the RF Armed Forces were playing “tank biathlon”, the Kyiv regime, under the guidance of NATO instructors, was preparing its army for a large-scale war. As you can see, Ukraine has prepared well.

The result is obvious. The "second army in the world" in the ninth month continues to retreat and retreat, leaving the enemy not just some nameless villages and farms for three houses, but such large cities as Krasny Lyman or the regional center Kherson. Russian cities, by the way, which will then have to be recaptured.

What will happen next


The time when it was possible to have time to mobilize and recapture Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, creating the most advantageous configuration, was missed. Moreover, leaving Kherson, the Russian Defense Ministry itself boarded up the exit to the Right Bank, where it will be almost impossible to return, except through Belarus, if Minsk, of course, agrees to provide its territory for such a large-scale operation. Events are developing according to an extremely negative scenario, when Russia is forced to move further back, leaving the enemy more and more new territories that are now legally part of our country.

Freezing the armed conflict, alas, will benefit our opponents, who use this time to prepare a further large-scale offensive, and to the detriment of us. What will happen next was also written a long time ago, and time has only confirmed the validity of negative approaches to evaluation. I would like to recall some of our forecasts made on July 20, 2022 in article titled ""Biting off in pieces" will lead to the partition of Ukraine according to the Indo-Pakistani scenario."

It was suggested there that if these “multi-move moves” are not stopped, the real result of the current special operation will be a model of relations between Russia and Ukraine, by analogy with India and Pakistan, the enmity of which has been going on for more than 70 years, and between them there were three wars and many armed clashes that collectively resulted in the deaths of more than half a million people:

This is the most realistic future of Russia and Ukraine, if this farce with “agreements” and an attempt to seat the Nazis at the negotiating table does not stop. We will be left with the Donbass, the Sea of ​​Azov (“Southern Corridor”) and a few pieces of the Kharkov and Nikolaev regions. All this will be destroyed by the war and will critically depend on water supplies through the Dnieper-Donbass canal, which will remain with Kyiv. That is, the configuration will be the most disadvantageous of all possible.

Everything else will remain with the collective West, which will arm the Armed Forces of Ukraine in such a way that further advancement without unacceptable losses will become impossible and we will have to go on the defensive. And then we will have an endless conflict with anti-Russia, into which the former Square will finally turn. In 2025, when Europe will reduce its dependence on Russian energy carriers, the NATO bloc will begin to actively intervene in it.

As you can see, as of November 2022, our territorial losses turned out to be even more than predicted.
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55 comments
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  1. +7
    14 November 2022 12: 46
    The situation described by the author is possible. Much worse is possible, with the occupation of the territories of the Belgorod, Rostov and other regions.
    It is clear that there will be versifiers who will sing praises to the Wisest for money and that everything is going according to a cunning plan. The wisest, as before, from time to time will push great-power speeches, agreed with the West, and do the opposite. There is no end in sight for this. Russia will drag out a semi-colonial position, with endless wars on the borders, the sale of everyone and everything. In this situation, the population will tend to emigrate.
    1. +7
      14 November 2022 13: 51
      I agree to all 100. For twenty years I have been watching, listening to push a speech, everything seems to be correct, fair, after a while, looking, a decree with the opposite meaning.
    2. +2
      14 November 2022 21: 17
      Teacher, if you dumped from Russia, then thank God. One less traitor to the Motherland. But it seems to me that you have never had anything to do with Russia.
  2. +10
    14 November 2022 13: 15
    I agree with the author! His words and opinion would be in the ears of our supreme strategist. Yes, it’s clear they have their own strategy there: as if the Russian oligarchs weren’t left without dough, and with them all the servants who were in power. The chatter is only propaganda, but there are no special cases. We don't bomb access roads, we don't bomb decision-making centers. Where are our DRGs, why is there no retaliatory terror action against Ze and his team? That there are no specialists, but only Bashirs and Petrov remained. Then the price of gr and svr is worthless. Enough already to bleat about the preservation of manpower. This is a war already, not a special operation. Otherwise, we will have to live beyond the Urals.
    1. -4
      14 November 2022 21: 24
      Pavel, you and your kind are not tired of riding on a dead donkey called - Aligarhi, loot betrayal, agreements and other nonsense of dill drinkers?
  3. -3
    14 November 2022 14: 04
    A few months ago I realized that we had lost the war. And let someone try to convince me with the facts in hand.
    1. 0
      14 November 2022 21: 30
      Gritsa, you'd better convince me with the facts in your hands that the war is lost, given the words of our president that - We haven't even started yet!
      Don't worry, you'll have more and a squirrel and a whistle! And take it for granted - Russia does not lose the war.
      1. +2
        15 November 2022 00: 07
        It's too late to start, and Russia has lost more than once ...
      2. +3
        15 November 2022 06: 07
        If Putin has not started anything yet, then he started what is going on now. I would start right away from the "real beginning".
        1. +1
          15 November 2022 08: 07
          The best comment.
        2. +1
          16 November 2022 10: 05
          Sydicalist, if we were at war with any other people, then there would be a real beginning * without quotes *. Let me remind you the words of our president, maybe after that you will understand - Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Oh, you want to carpet-bomb one nation for a real start? No, it's much more complicated. We cannot but have the right to destroy the civilian population (as the Ukrofascists do) who, after holding a referendum, will vote for joining Russia!
          1. 0
            18 November 2022 09: 05
            If we are one people, if we do not want carpet bombing of peaceful cities, then why this chatter that "we have not started anything yet"?
      3. +4
        15 November 2022 06: 17
        Are 1905 and 1917 a win?
    2. +1
      14 November 2022 23: 47
      A few months ago I realized that we had lost the war. And let someone try to convince me with the facts in hand.

      Stop whining, alarmist. I agree, things don't look very rosy from the couch. But you never know, suddenly we do not see the whole iceberg as a whole? We must believe in our boys and at least in a small fraction of the mind of those who started it all.
      1. +5
        15 November 2022 00: 10
        The boys have faith. Rulers do not
  4. +3
    14 November 2022 14: 18
    I agree with the author 100%, but if we consider events from the point of view of the interests of the state, if we look from a different angle, namely from the point of view of winning a place under the sun for national capital, in other words, national oligarchs, then everything that the Kremlin does is logical and correct
    1. -3
      14 November 2022 21: 38
      rotkiv, and the economy of any state does not imply the presence of national oligarchs? Maybe there is on planet Earth, at least one state that is not organized like that? There is no such thing and never has been and never will be. Whoever is against the oligarchs, whatever you call them, simply does not understand how any state works, and lives in dreams that are too far from real life.
  5. -1
    14 November 2022 17: 48
    I don’t quite understand why it says If Minsk provides. Naturally, he will provide us with both territory and his military. There can't be two opinions here.
    1. -2
      14 November 2022 21: 47
      Danila, that's why it is written that the author sleeps and sees in a dream that all around Russia there are only traitors who have only loot on their minds with their children in the West, and they must, they must, they must leave Russia at the most critical moment. Well, I want so many, well, what can you do?
  6. +3
    14 November 2022 18: 48
    With our ingenious military-political leadership, the unity of the oligarchs and all the bourgeois around the Kremlin, we cannot even imagine what special forms a further semi-war, semi-kindred can achieve ... If the country is not at war, and so it is slightly fighting with NATO. ..
    1. -5
      14 November 2022 21: 54
      Potapov, call a spade a spade, and not as you and others like you would like - The military-political leadership, together with the financial and economic bloc of Russia under the leadership of the Kremlin, will solve any problems on any fronts.
      This is how it is and absolutely nothing else. Everything else is empty talk!
  7. 0
    14 November 2022 18: 52
    The fact that the war in Ukraine was a foregone conclusion and inevitable, the author of the lines has repeatedly written over the past eight years

    Well, everything came true as the author wanted.
    1. 0
      14 November 2022 22: 03
      Smart, what does the predictor-author have to do with it, when the inevitability of war was a foregone conclusion even when, in the fifties, the Khrushchev amnesty released hundreds of thousands of Bandnrovites? And aptly noted - As the author wanted!
  8. +1
    14 November 2022 19: 13
    Unlike the good old frontal war with a diplomatic note at the beginning and a peace treaty at the end, a hybrid war never starts and never ends - follows from the Doctrine of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, announced at the general meeting of the Academy of Military Sciences on March 1, 2019 G.
    therefore the war goes on until the parties are completely exhausted
    1. -2
      14 November 2022 22: 37
      Of course, why did you write this?
  9. -5
    14 November 2022 20: 10
    One very true idea was expressed, but a little to the wrong address. Russia got involved in a situation from which it can no longer get out in its previous form. Most experts believe that China will be satisfied with only the Trans-Urals. However, this doesn't make any sense. The author very correctly notes that in this situation there will be an eternal territorial dispute, which will inevitably end in a war when the enemy regains strength. I am confident that Xijingping will never repeat Putin's mistake and will take Russia entirely. No remainder.
    1. 0
      14 November 2022 22: 07
      Syndicalist, but besides Putin's mistakes, what else can you say?
  10. +5
    14 November 2022 20: 18
    Russia is at war not with Durkaina, but with the Anglo-Saxon West, which has been trying since 2007 to eliminate Russia as a competitor in geopolitics, and at the same time appropriate its resources. Mazepia voluntarily chose to obsequiously help the Anglo-Saxons in the fight against Russia in the hope of scraps from the master's table. For all parties, the stakes in this world war are incredibly high. There is no need for Russia to hurry, time is playing on its side and against the Anglo-Saxons. And the fate of Durkaina in any case is to disappear from the world map. Farmers and Bandera, in principle, are unable to even simply maintain in good condition what they got from the Russian Empire for free. The former richest republic of the USSR was turned into a poor Anglo-Saxon brothel in just 30 years.
    1. -1
      14 November 2022 22: 15
      Anton, right now, some strategist will write to your comment that our president is also to blame for this. He is their fault for everything.
  11. -2
    14 November 2022 20: 19
    If you describe the era of Putin's rule, then it can probably be characterized as a period of missed opportunities for Russia. And we won't lose the war. Why am I convinced of this? The only question is at what cost will we win. Of course, I would like less bloodshed, it depends on how lucky Russia was with the military-political leadership in this historical period of time.
    1. 0
      14 November 2022 20: 47
      Only blood, and preferably Ukrainian.
    2. 0
      14 November 2022 20: 54
      Put "minus" only for the first sentence. Read the achievements of the country for 20 years.
      1. +4
        14 November 2022 22: 09
        So I'm not saying that there are no achievements at all, but the missed opportunities outweigh. Let's start from the middle of the XNUMXs, when the price of oil went up. Instead of developing the economy and infrastructure on them, we decided to put them in a "box", or rather invest in someone else's economy. As a result, the "pod" is now simply "squeezed out". You look at how many factories were built and how many closed during the period of his reign. There will be much more closed ones, and mainly screwdriver assembly plants of foreign brands are opening.

        At airports, there are only airbases and Boeings. Well, a superjet has appeared, in which there is practically nothing Russian. About 2014, the author painted everything, there is no point in repeating. in Georgia in 2008. for some reason, we also decided to stop halfway to Tbilisi and did not bring what we started to its logical end. As a result, Georgia remained as unfriendly as it was. I am generally silent about the reform of the army under Serdyukov, now it is back to back to us. How many military schools and academies have been reduced and optimized, and now it’s almost like in the Great Patriotic War there is talk about accelerated training courses for officers. But Putin appointed him to the post.

        And if there are achievements, then they are not the same if we take into account the period of his reign. Here at Stalin they were visible to the naked eye, even after so many years. As they say, he took the country with a plow, and left it with an atomic bomb. And all this in 30 years, in which the restoration of the country after the civil war, the Great Patriotic War, was kept within. Due to these achievements, the country is still living today. And the elimination of illiteracy is worth something. We have our own engineers with a peasant pedigree. And you count how many factories, and which ones were built during the 18 years of Brezhnev's rule, and for some reason his period of rule is considered to be a period of "stagnation". And all this because there was a selection of personnel, as a rule, the best ones moved to the top, with exceptions, of course, and now, in my opinion, Pitirim Sorokin's theory of negative selection is confirmed in all its glory.
        1. 0
          15 November 2022 10: 07
          I absolutely agree with you - I want more and better. Putin is on our side. But, between us there are corrupt state institutions supervised by the oligarchs.
          Sometimes I think that maybe Putin's main goal is not victory in the NMD as an end in itself, but turning the oligarchs facing the state and with their backs to the West.
    3. -1
      14 November 2022 22: 20
      Ilya, if you are talking about missed opportunities, it would be nice for you to list them. Given that we are talking about the era of Putin's rule. Well, how could Putin have avoided these omissions? And I also put a minus because you either don’t know about the achievements of Russia (Putin’s era), or simply don’t want to know.
  12. +2
    14 November 2022 20: 52
    The result of the current special operation will be a model of relations between Russia and Ukraine, by analogy with India and Pakistan, the enmity of which has been going on for more than 70 years

    This is a superficial conclusion. Neither India nor Pakistan can put out the light of another. But Russia can. The Russian Federation will be dragged out for no more than a year, only in order to brainwash Ukrainians and the West.
    1. 0
      14 November 2022 22: 31
      Gene, the author's statement is very indicative - It will become. Not the slightest doubt of the type - maybe or maybe. And this is the author’s desire that the war for Russia last for more than 70 years. With all the negativity that any war brings. I would like to ask the author why he hates our country so much?
  13. +4
    14 November 2022 21: 01
    There were too many multi-moves, they just got confused, and when they got confused, they stole money! In short, if the knot is not untied, they cut it!
    1. +2
      14 November 2022 22: 33
      Who will cut, but Demonlivi?
  14. +2
    14 November 2022 22: 28
    While the Kremlin was busy with its “multi-move moves”, and the Ground Forces of the RF Armed Forces were playing “tank biathlon”, the Kyiv regime, under the guidance of NATO instructors, was preparing its army for a large-scale war. As you can see, Ukraine has prepared well.

    It’s so good that in order for her to be able to fight, weapons are brought to her from all over Europe. They have American communications and intelligence. The economy also rests solely on what the United States gives them. In fact, Ukrainian there is only cannon fodder, which is destroyed by hundreds of thousands.
    Aren't you tired of writing this nonsense?

    It was possible to take Crimea only by placing in one form or another in Kyiv their pro-Russian proteges, who, relatively speaking, would sign a paper that they respect the will of the inhabitants of Crimea and have no territorial claims.

    Well, let's say that Russia then did not limit itself to Crimea and ... And then what? And then the same as now. It is physically impossible to capture such a huge territory with the same speed as the Crimea, and the NVO begins, in which the RF Armed Forces oppose NATO. But the Russian army is now much stronger than it was then. I advise those who like to yell about "tank biathlon" to estimate the cost of the missiles that were fired during this time.
    Yes, I read Strelkov, who said that the commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine called him and promised that they would surrender, that's only when Russia comes. And I believe he's telling the truth, but... The truth he knows. If someone promised something, this does not mean that he will want and be able to fulfill the promise - there were such precedents in the history of Russia. Who actually called there is a question, how and whether the curators from the USA knew about it. Not fools work there, if someone does not know.
    So the reasoning of the witnesses of the sect "the capture of Kyiv by one OMON regiment in 2012" causes nothing but laughter.
    1. +1
      14 November 2022 22: 54
      And then the same as now

      Among other things, in 2014, the import of agricultural products from the Russian Federation greatly exceeded exports.
      Only in 2020 the balance converged to 0, in 2021 for the first time we reached a significant net export in agriculture, in 2022 the same export exceeds imports.
      1. +3
        15 November 2022 01: 10
        As a person who was once close to the export of Russian wheat, I can tell you that already in 2016, in monetary terms, it exceeded the export of Russian weapons. :-)
        1. 0
          15 November 2022 01: 34
          Just in case, Nelton wrote about agricultural products, and not just about wheat, and besides, there is still a difference with 2014))
          1. +1
            2 December 2022 10: 41
            Thanks for the clarification. It is foolish to argue with the obvious. :-)
        2. 0
          15 November 2022 09: 21
          Quote: molibden
          export of Russian wheat, I can tell you that already in 2016, in monetary terms, it exceeded the export of Russian weapons

          And one does not contradict the other.
          in 2016, agricultural exports were worth $17 billion.
          The amount is quite substantial.
          But agricultural imports were worth $25 billion...
          1. 0
            2 December 2022 10: 40
            I agree - it doesn't contradict. Still, a ton of sausage or cheese costs many times more than a ton of grade 3 wheat, and even now there is almost a 50% shortage of durum wheat in Russia.
  15. +4
    15 November 2022 01: 20
    I fully respect Sergey's prognostic abilities and pay tribute to his efficiency, as he regularly publishes very sharp, full of facts and effective analytics articles that are always interesting to read! Again, he pleased with a polemical story, and again in many respects he is right.
    I would like to note the fighting spirit of Oleg Ignatov, a participant in the comments, who defends his point of view with admirable perseverance. He is for us, well done, I support, as many spiteful critics from the enemy camp bark against, damn it!
    Arguing with the author of the article, I agree with Dart2027 and Nelton. Well, it’s true, maybe we were able to cover, let’s say, the entire Ukrainian territory with influence, but would we keep it? Do we all know about that situation? But were the rumors true that the GDP had to threaten with a response from nuclear weapons to American blackmail over Crimea?
    I will add only two examples: after the start of the SVO, both our visa and mastercard abroad died for a long time, and inside the Russian Federation we did not even notice the demarche of these world leaders in financial payment systems, which would definitely not have happened in 2014, there would have been a collapse of payments; in addition, my friend, who comes from near Khmelnytsky, who until this year regularly visited relatives there, reliably informed that all agricultural lands in the vicinity of their regional center were bought up by American structures back in the XNUMXs: seeds from the USA, what to sow, what to collect and where send, also teams of Americans.
    And therefore, friends, the most stubborn resistance of the Americans would have been provided to us even then ((
    They are sure that this is their land, it was bought by them a long time ago, and it will be very difficult to win it back, it’s good that it turned out relatively painlessly with Crimea!
    1. 0
      16 November 2022 10: 22
      borisvt Thank you!
  16. +1
    15 November 2022 09: 09
    There are many traitors of all kinds in Russia today, "thanks" to them the mind has to observe incomprehensible actions, and things get stuck in the mud, not going according to plan.
  17. 0
    15 November 2022 11: 23
    In order not to bite myself with anger ... I pull out of my memory the words from Igor Rasteryaev's song "Russian Road" - "... When we retreat, we go in front" - and somehow it becomes a little easier.
  18. 0
    15 November 2022 13: 32
    The game has been lost consecutively since 1991. This includes the "ambassadorial" activities of Chernomyrdin and Zurabov, and the plots of the oligarchs (remember Ukrtatnafta). UA prepared ideologically. It broke out in 2014. They twitched to save the day, but Surkov's ideas and business extinguished it. Then they tortured the Donetsk people for 8 years and did not know how to get rid of them. We waited until UA itself began to resolve the issue. CBO is a chess zugzwang in an almost lost game. If before that we paid with money, now we pay with blood. This is a collection of errors.
    1. -1
      16 November 2022 21: 40
      Vasya, why do you write that for eight years you did not know how to get rid of them? Do you know at least 10% of the history?
  19. 0
    15 November 2022 20: 07
    You wrote everything correctly Sergey, but it is not clear - Whom did you warn:

    We did warn
    The fact that the war in Ukraine was a foregone conclusion and inevitable, the author of the lines has repeatedly written over the past eight years, constantly and consistently urging to prevent the strengthening of the enemy, solving the problem of the Kyiv regime in a timely manner, until it costs both sides of the rivers of spilled blood.

    It is also not clear in whose garden you are throwing stones?
    Who was supposed to hear you and care?
    You can not explain the Complex - Easy!
    "Ukraine" is a RUSSIAN BRAIN CANCER and nothing more!
  20. +2
    15 November 2022 23: 15
    There will be no Ukraine ....
  21. +1
    16 November 2022 10: 44
    with Ukraine? which Ukraine? there will be no Ukraine.