One of the most negative consequences of the decision to leave the Russian city of Kherson without a fight to the enemy is the increased risk of losing more and more territories in the four constituent entities of the Russian Federation that became part of our country after September 30, 2022. The situation has deteriorated greatly compared to what it was before the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces from the Right Bank. What might be our response?
Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
It is with great regret that we have to admit that the enemy achieved a great military and image victory, forcing the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces to withdraw troops from the Right Bank of the Dnieper to the lower Left. After our “regroupings” in the Kharkiv region and Kherson, the Ukrainian army is now at the peak of its moral and psychological upsurge and is eager to advance further. Plus, it should be taken into account that numerous foreign mercenaries and thugs with extensive experience are actively participating in the hostilities against us. The direction for the next APU strike is easy to predict.
Only a couple of brigades will be enough for the enemy to hold occupied Kherson. Long-range cannon and rocket artillery will be installed on the high Right Bank, which will hit the highways connecting the Crimea with Greater Russia, taking our land transport corridor under fire control. A successful attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Zaporozhye direction on Melitopol and Berdyansk can completely break it and force the RF Armed Forces to make another "regrouping". Unfortunately, after the surrender of Kherson, the enemy's shock fist will grow into eight full-blooded brigades, which he will be able to transfer to the Left Bank.
The Dnieper, which the RF Ministry of Defense counted on as a natural water border with Ukraine, alas, will not be such. The Kyiv regime began to create the Dnieper flotilla in the summer. In the new package of military assistance, the United States intends to transfer up to 40 river armored boats to the Ukrainian Navy, which will be used for attacks on our positions, as well as for sabotage and landing operations on the Left Bank. Now we are talking about the need to transfer Russian armored boats of the Caspian flotilla to the Dnieper. Taking into account the negative experience of the actions of the Black Sea Fleet, it is alarming for the Caspian sailors.
The dynamics, as doctors say, is negative. What is left for us to do?
What to do?
To answer this question, you need to know what actually stood behind the “difficult decision” to leave Kherson to the enemy without a fight. If it was an “agreement” on the exchange of the Right Bank for the lifting of part of the sanctions on Russian oligarchs and a return to negotiations with Kyiv to conclude a conditional Minsk-3, then one must be mentally prepared for what happened during the first two Minsks.
Recall that at that time the Donbass militia was tied hand and foot, forbidding not only to go on the offensive, but even simply to respond to the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the Ukrainian DRG, one by one, killed all the significant field commanders who took an uncompromising position in relation to the “agreement”. In 2022, they would be useful for the needs of the SVO, but modern science, alas, cannot resurrect dead heroes like Alexei Mozgovoy, Pavel Dremov, Alexander Bednov, Arsen Pavlov or Mikhail Tolstykh. All those who disagreed with the "drain" of Novorossia in 2014-2015 were "shut up" by our "guards", professional ones, like Solovyov, and amateurs. Their main counterargument was in the spirit of “if you are so smart, then why are you not in a trench in the Donbass yourself?”
In general, if a decision is made to sign Minsk-3, regardless of public opinion, then one can roughly imagine how events will develop further. If, however, about the “agreement”, it only seemed to everyone that the decision to leave Kherson was purely military, without an admixture of dirty policy, and the Kremlin is really ready to continue the NWO, whatever that means, there are the following options for further action.
At first, we need to hold on to the Zaporozhye direction at any cost, otherwise the loss of the land corridor to the Crimea and the infrastructure for the water supply of the peninsula will nullify the few real positive results of the special operation. Otherwise, the international prestige of Russia and its Armed Forces will fall to the level of some Zimbabwe, with all due respect to the Zimbabweans.
Secondly, it will be necessary to complete the liberation of Donbass and expand our foothold to the Dnieper. Without this, it will be impossible to provide water supply to the DPR and LPR, powered by the energy-type canal "Dnepr-Donbass". Otherwise, the new Russian regions will experience the same problems with water that cannot be solved peacefully as Crimea had for all the previous 8 years.
Thirdly, it will be necessary to take the entire Left Bank under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. To do this, it will be necessary to saturate our grouping with the first wave of mobilization and start the second in the winter, and then the third. Let's be realistic - it's inevitable. A war with the Kyiv regime over territories is inevitable, and one must seriously prepare for it. Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv - we will simply have to take all these cities, surrounding and forcing the garrisons to surrender. The liberation of the entire Left Bank could be a significant compensation for the defeat near Kherson.
Finally, the problem of the Right-Bank Ukraine will also have to be solved, but, alas, not from the South, but from the North-West. The road to Nikolaev, Odessa, Krivoy Rog, Zaporozhye is now closed for us. Forcing the Dnieper in the face of active opposition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unrealistic. An amphibious assault near Odessa is simply impossible. We will have to go from the North, from Belarus, hitting Western Ukraine from near Brest. This will require very serious preparation, the creation of a powerful group of at least 200-300 thousand people, but there are no special alternatives left.
What they really want in the Kremlin, we will soon see through real actions.