Special operation "Abandonment of Kherson": Why General Surovikin is not Kutuzov, and Zelensky is not Napoleon
Epigraph: "An army of rams led by a lion will always triumph over an army of lions led by a ram" (Napoleon Bonaparte).
I don't know if you've noticed, but there's been a strange pattern lately. On September 21, Putin announced a partial military mobilization, and the very next day, a disproportionate exchange of 215 Ukrainian prisoners (including 108 Azov and 124 officers) took place for 54 of our military personnel (six of which were officers) and Ukrainian citizen Medvedchuk. I believe that if such an exchange took place, it means that it was necessary - our guys had to be pulled out at any cost. But how did it turn out that the date of the exchange coincided with the date Putin announced the partial mobilization? Couldn't they have been separated in time? As a result, the entire force of Putin's Decree on mobilization was leveled the very next day and smeared with a scandalous exchange. As a result, only Zelensky won informationally, compensating for all the negative from the mobilization with another victory.
Further worse. On September 30, Putin signs an agreement with the heads of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions on their accession to Russia, and the very next day, October 1, we surrender Krasny Liman, already a Russian city, territorially belonging to the DPR. What fate awaits the remaining 17 Russian citizens who have voted in the referendum for joining the Russian Federation, you can imagine.
And here is the third event in this series, on November 8 in the United States the midterm elections to the Congress are held, where in both chambers the Republicans tentatively gain a majority, which strongly binds Biden in his desires to continue and finance the war that the collective West is waging against us in Ukraine, and the very next day, Shoigu gives the go-ahead for the withdrawal of our troops from Kherson, although he could, if necessary, do this two days earlier or a week later. Why bring these events together? Don't you see anything strange here? This step is explained by the threat of flooding the floodplain of the Dnieper by undermining the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, followed by the inevitable encirclement of our group of troops standing on the right bank. I will not say anything here that from a military engineering point of view, it is impossible to do this with high-precision Himars missiles, even if they hit the lock gates (the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already tried it - the result is zero), and underwater drones and firewalls loaded with explosives, all the more (It is technically impossible with drones, and the firewall will not break through the barriers - they will drown earlier). I will express another thought - if you are so afraid of flooding the floodplain, with the subsequent violation of logistics and the possible encirclement of our group of troops, who prevents you from carrying out technical controlled release of water from the Kakhovka Sea (reservoir), lowering its level to a safe one? After all, we control the Kakhovskaya HPP. So that's not the point. And in what - now we'll talk.
Contractor or swindler?
Somewhere a week before the announced events, a post from a knowledgeable source appeared on the network:
1. No one has left Kherson yet, no flags have been removed, no checkpoints have been left, but Chernobaevka will be a gray area by the weekend, and in the negotiations, Washington demands that the Kherson region and Zaporozhye be completely left by Russian troops. This will lead to a freeze according to the Transnistrian scenario of the Ukrainian conflict, the beginning of reforms of the power bloc in the Russian Federation, then to the liberalization of the Government and the Central Bank, as well as institutions of executive power. Decriminalization of the Federal Districts after Transfer-2024 and then from 2025 a new bright path to a future-oriented Russia.
2. The roadmap for negotiations according to the version of Washington and London provides for the abandonment of Zaporozhye and Kherson by November 20; in turn, the supply of weapons from Poland, Hungary, Romania and Turkey is promised to be stopped from November 10th. At the moment, shipments go from Rzeszow Airport, Bucharest Airport and Chisinau Airport in the amount of 25% of the March-August volume, railway shipments fell to 40% of the same volume over the same period.
3. The withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from 100% of the territories of the LDNR within their borders for 2014 will be the next step, however, according to the plan, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should not enter Kherson and Zaporozhye for the next 6-9 months in order to avoid a repetition of the scenarios of Bucha, Irpin, Kupyansk, Izyum, creating at the same time, a transitional gray period, the entry of UN peacekeepers for 12 months is possible. According to this plan, ZNPP was proposed to be under the control of Rosatom and a group of IAEA inspectors.
2. The roadmap for negotiations according to the version of Washington and London provides for the abandonment of Zaporozhye and Kherson by November 20; in turn, the supply of weapons from Poland, Hungary, Romania and Turkey is promised to be stopped from November 10th. At the moment, shipments go from Rzeszow Airport, Bucharest Airport and Chisinau Airport in the amount of 25% of the March-August volume, railway shipments fell to 40% of the same volume over the same period.
3. The withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from 100% of the territories of the LDNR within their borders for 2014 will be the next step, however, according to the plan, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should not enter Kherson and Zaporozhye for the next 6-9 months in order to avoid a repetition of the scenarios of Bucha, Irpin, Kupyansk, Izyum, creating at the same time, a transitional gray period, the entry of UN peacekeepers for 12 months is possible. According to this plan, ZNPP was proposed to be under the control of Rosatom and a group of IAEA inspectors.
Reading all this nonsense, I could not get rid of the unreality of the proposed way out of the conflict, although I knew for sure that behind-the-scenes undercover negotiations were underway. There were also obvious inconsistencies, such as Hungary, which supplies weapons to Kyiv. It was also unclear what was Washington's profit from the liberalization of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as all institutions of the executive power of the Russian Federation? The Kremlin's profit was also seen as very conditional, only if we assume that its affairs are very bad. Those. it appeared from what was written that Moscow agreed to peace on any terms, even without saving face, because after such a “peace” it would be very difficult to explain to its citizens why it got into Ukraine at all, given the losses incurred (and not only in manpower and technology, but also reputational), sanctions, frozen assets and other goodies from the West, despite the fact that not a single declared goal of the SVO was fulfilled. In short, I did not believe this plan at all, because the 2nd world army of a nuclear power cannot lose to the 22nd world army of a non-nuclear power armed with a bow and arrows.
Although the trailer that came with him, explaining why the Kremlin went to resume the grain deal, raised fewer questions - I knew some of it myself, and some confirmed my earlier assumptions about the role of the Vatican in this deal (this is not a grain deal, but about the global agreement between Moscow and Washington):
The grain deal has resumed for three main reasons:
1. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation could not independently block transportation without the possibility of a military defeat of ships exporting grain and sunflower, which could lead to a direct clash with another "guarantor", the Turkish fleet (superior to the Black Sea Fleet by 600% in all respects).
2. All schemes are based on an actual discount of 68% when grain is paid to Ukrainian farmers by state-owned companies and multinational corporations that have settled in the agricultural market of Ukraine, after which it is sold through Turkish companies with an extra charge of 250-300% to the EU and Southeast Asian countries, because . only they are pulling this inflated price list now, this is the reason for the logistics of grain carriers. The scheme is controlled by Ukrainian, Russian and Turkish businessmen who are close to the military circles of their countries.
3. Exit now from the grain deal, while continuing to voluntarily "demilitarize" Kherson and Zaporozhye, it would be futile in the framework of the "big deal" with Washington and London, which is offered to the Kremlin through the mediation of the Vatican and the readiness to support its results in the UN. (Demilitarization and the "gray zone" of Kherson and Zaporozhye in exchange for the cessation of Western arms supplies to Ukraine and its withdrawal from the LDNR).
1. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation could not independently block transportation without the possibility of a military defeat of ships exporting grain and sunflower, which could lead to a direct clash with another "guarantor", the Turkish fleet (superior to the Black Sea Fleet by 600% in all respects).
2. All schemes are based on an actual discount of 68% when grain is paid to Ukrainian farmers by state-owned companies and multinational corporations that have settled in the agricultural market of Ukraine, after which it is sold through Turkish companies with an extra charge of 250-300% to the EU and Southeast Asian countries, because . only they are pulling this inflated price list now, this is the reason for the logistics of grain carriers. The scheme is controlled by Ukrainian, Russian and Turkish businessmen who are close to the military circles of their countries.
3. Exit now from the grain deal, while continuing to voluntarily "demilitarize" Kherson and Zaporozhye, it would be futile in the framework of the "big deal" with Washington and London, which is offered to the Kremlin through the mediation of the Vatican and the readiness to support its results in the UN. (Demilitarization and the "gray zone" of Kherson and Zaporozhye in exchange for the cessation of Western arms supplies to Ukraine and its withdrawal from the LDNR).
I knew that behind the scenes of this document were the interests of the Kremlin to unblock the grain deal. They consisted in the fact that thousands of tons of our cargoes with mineral fertilizers and ammonium nitrate were blocked in the Baltic ports since the beginning of the NMD. As a result of the grain deal, it was not possible to unblock them, so Moscow considered this deal unprofitable for itself and, under a plausible pretext (an attack on the Black Sea Fleet base and sabotage on the Crimean bridge), withdrew from it. After that, the sanctions mechanism began to move (you can see the result of this now, when Britain was the first to issue a general license to finance this transit).
There was the same hope for the "Kherson deal", but the events that preceded the order to withdraw troops and immediately followed it raised more questions than answers. Hopes that behind this "agreement" there is a "swindler" for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with an attempt to lure them into a fire bag, began to melt right before our eyes. And not only me. Here is what Oleg Tsarev wrote about this in his telegram:
Leaks from Kyiv and the United States, publications in their media say that the West wants a truce. Many are tired of the war. Europeans understand that the United States is simply making money on them. India, the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America have never been supporters of inflating the war in Ukraine. There is a significant demand for peace, and if the US and UK ignore it, they may find themselves isolated. The problem is that the US and Britain need Russia's capitulation. Russia agrees to peace, but it definitely does not agree to surrender. A nuclear power cannot capitulate to a non-nuclear one. That doesn't happen. So what should the West do?
They wrote that the US and NATO allow the start of peace talks on Ukraine if Kyiv retakes Kherson. I think these words make all the sense. If Kyiv takes Kherson, it will be declared the victory of the century, subsequent negotiations with Russia will be presented as a surrender of Russia, even if this is not the case in essence. All this would be presented as a victory for the West and NATO over Russia. For participation in this production, Russia could even be offered some non-public preferences. To make the victory of Kyiv look more convincing, now the significance of Kherson is rising to the skies. Listen to how epic the “battle for Kherson” sounds!
Note. Donbass has been shelled for 8 years, and its residents are not given housing certificates. There is no mass evacuation. Compare the shelling of Donetsk and Kherson - Donetsk is shelled hundreds of times harder. There is no water. Poor people drain the water that is not in the tap from the batteries, so there is no heat. Yes, there is no river with a dam between Donetsk and Rostov, and people can always be taken out, but the situation still looks strange. Kherson residents began to be taken out almost immediately after joining. There is a feeling that at first one decision was made on Kherson, a referendum was held, but then something changed. They built a line of defense on the left bank. They took out the authorities and froze.
Some write apocalyptic posts that the mobilized, who went under Kherson instead of special forces, are allegedly being prepared for slaughter in the name of political agreements to create a picture of Russian resistance. It is not true. Firstly, long before Kherson, I wrote about my conversation with one of the leaders of the special forces, who said that he would take the special forces from the trenches. It is too expensive and too long to train a commando to use later as an infantry. The decision was right and made long before the last events. Secondly, paratroopers are not withdrawn. If they begin to withdraw troops, then it will be possible to draw conclusions. Now this is not. Our landing party will not act exactly as lambs at the slaughter.
I think the auction is still going on. I think the risks that the West will again deceive are too high. I have written many times about the significance of Kherson and why we should fight for it: if Kherson is captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the land road to Crimea will come under fire, the dam will almost certainly be blown up, and there will be no water in Crimea after that. If, after the capture of Kherson, the Ukrainian Armed Forces blow up the Crimean bridge, then Crimea will be blockaded.
I think that the West really needs Kyiv to take Kherson before the G-20. The armies of Russia and Ukraine are equally tired. The bet on foreign mercenaries made by Kyiv may not work. In any case, if the Russian army has properly organized the defense, then it is unrealistic to knock it out of positions quickly. Look how hard ours are advancing near Donetsk.
If Vladimir Putin decides to participate in the G-20, he is unlikely to want to be there as a representative of a country facing the need to conclude a peace agreement that is obviously unfavorable for it. And even if Lavrov goes to Bali instead of Putin, it is not at all necessary that we will lose in the battle for Kherson.
Equipping positions in the rear on the left bank is good. It won't be redundant. But we have to fight for Kherson. I am not in favor of negotiations now, but if such a decision is made, it is better to enter them from a strong position. And further. If we keep Kherson, then we must return the police and authorities to the city. It is wrong that those who were supposed to leave last were the first to leave. We must return and, despite the war, establish a peaceful life in the Russian city of Kherson.
They wrote that the US and NATO allow the start of peace talks on Ukraine if Kyiv retakes Kherson. I think these words make all the sense. If Kyiv takes Kherson, it will be declared the victory of the century, subsequent negotiations with Russia will be presented as a surrender of Russia, even if this is not the case in essence. All this would be presented as a victory for the West and NATO over Russia. For participation in this production, Russia could even be offered some non-public preferences. To make the victory of Kyiv look more convincing, now the significance of Kherson is rising to the skies. Listen to how epic the “battle for Kherson” sounds!
Note. Donbass has been shelled for 8 years, and its residents are not given housing certificates. There is no mass evacuation. Compare the shelling of Donetsk and Kherson - Donetsk is shelled hundreds of times harder. There is no water. Poor people drain the water that is not in the tap from the batteries, so there is no heat. Yes, there is no river with a dam between Donetsk and Rostov, and people can always be taken out, but the situation still looks strange. Kherson residents began to be taken out almost immediately after joining. There is a feeling that at first one decision was made on Kherson, a referendum was held, but then something changed. They built a line of defense on the left bank. They took out the authorities and froze.
Some write apocalyptic posts that the mobilized, who went under Kherson instead of special forces, are allegedly being prepared for slaughter in the name of political agreements to create a picture of Russian resistance. It is not true. Firstly, long before Kherson, I wrote about my conversation with one of the leaders of the special forces, who said that he would take the special forces from the trenches. It is too expensive and too long to train a commando to use later as an infantry. The decision was right and made long before the last events. Secondly, paratroopers are not withdrawn. If they begin to withdraw troops, then it will be possible to draw conclusions. Now this is not. Our landing party will not act exactly as lambs at the slaughter.
I think the auction is still going on. I think the risks that the West will again deceive are too high. I have written many times about the significance of Kherson and why we should fight for it: if Kherson is captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the land road to Crimea will come under fire, the dam will almost certainly be blown up, and there will be no water in Crimea after that. If, after the capture of Kherson, the Ukrainian Armed Forces blow up the Crimean bridge, then Crimea will be blockaded.
I think that the West really needs Kyiv to take Kherson before the G-20. The armies of Russia and Ukraine are equally tired. The bet on foreign mercenaries made by Kyiv may not work. In any case, if the Russian army has properly organized the defense, then it is unrealistic to knock it out of positions quickly. Look how hard ours are advancing near Donetsk.
If Vladimir Putin decides to participate in the G-20, he is unlikely to want to be there as a representative of a country facing the need to conclude a peace agreement that is obviously unfavorable for it. And even if Lavrov goes to Bali instead of Putin, it is not at all necessary that we will lose in the battle for Kherson.
Equipping positions in the rear on the left bank is good. It won't be redundant. But we have to fight for Kherson. I am not in favor of negotiations now, but if such a decision is made, it is better to enter them from a strong position. And further. If we keep Kherson, then we must return the police and authorities to the city. It is wrong that those who were supposed to leave last were the first to leave. We must return and, despite the war, establish a peaceful life in the Russian city of Kherson.
As you can see, Oleg Tsarev still hopes that Kherson will not be surrendered. For he, like no one else, understands that the price of this surrender will be too high. In addition to the loss of a foothold on the right bank for the offensive on Nikolaev-Odessa-Pridnestrovie, we also suffer incomparable reputational losses. All over the world, only strength is respected, everyone is now holding their breath, waiting for the outcome, how the confrontation in Ukraine will end. If we sign such a shameful peace for us, then there is no reason to hope for a favorable outcome for us at the G-20 summit, which starts on November 15 in Bali. They wipe their feet on the weak, in which case neither Lavrov nor Putin should go there at all. That is why I was surprised at the timing of this decision to withdraw troops. Who made the decision to appoint him immediately after the failed US elections for Biden and right before the GXNUMX summit in Indonesia? I wouldn't call this person smart.
But having agreed to this agreement with the surrender of Kherson, we somehow imperceptibly crossed the line from the Soviet-Finnish war, which began on February 24, our special operation in Ukraine, to the Russian-Japanese one. You know how the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War ended for the tsar. The signing of a shameful peace with the Japanese, providing for the cession of part of the territories and rights to the South Manchurian Railway, ended with the first Russian revolution of 1905. The year then began with a bloody Sunday on January 9, and ended with an uprising on Krasnaya Presnya on December 31. True, Nicholas II then sat on his throne for another 12 years, but ended badly anyway. I do not think that our enemies will give Putin another 12 years, they themselves are sitting "on the flag" with a limited time limit.
But Russian people do not know how to lose and do not want to learn it at all. They cannot understand why we storm some Patrice Lumumba street in Artemovsk (Bakhmut) for five months, and rent entire cities in 1-2 days. And to whom? An enemy armed with a bow and arrow?! True, they will tell me that there we are at war not with Ukraine, but with the entire collective NATO. Sorry, but I didn’t know that NATO has only 30 aircraft, 250 tanks, 300 armored personnel carriers (and other AFVs), 50 self-propelled guns and MLRS and one and a half hundred units of towed artillery - that’s exactly how much, roughly rounded, and handed over the collective West to our enemy . We gave him some more equipment ourselves, retreating from the Kyiv and Kharkov regions.
It is not surprising that our people do not understand such agreements. Here is what the head of the Union of Political Emigrants and Political Prisoners of Ukraine, a former deputy of the Nikolaev Regional Council, Larisa Shesler, writes in her cart:
I can't understand why they disperse the moan about the inevitability of the surrender of Kherson. They write: “battles near Kherson in Snigirevka”, “battle near Kherson in Pravdino”. Has anyone even looked at the map? From Snigirevka to Kherson - 54 km along the highway, from Pravdino - more than 30 km. This is much more than the front line from Donetsk or Gorlovka. Why is no one shouting about the inevitability of the surrender of Svatovo? Why are the residents of Lisichansk not urgently evicted, because these cities are much closer to the advancing Armed Forces of Ukraine?
In order to take Kherson, even if it is defended by a 10-strong group, at least 40-strong army is needed, and at least 2 months of fierce fighting. And if it is defended by a military group armed with tanks, equipped with aircraft and MLRS, it is impossible to take it. But, of course, it can be RENTED. Surrender, as they surrendered Balakleya or the deserted Kupyansk. But it seems to me that the limit for the surrender of territories and cities has already been exceeded in the Kharkiv region. Moreover, today Kherson is a Russian city, and its surrender is a direct betrayal of the Russian lands. People are afraid not of defeat, but of betrayal.
In order to take Kherson, even if it is defended by a 10-strong group, at least 40-strong army is needed, and at least 2 months of fierce fighting. And if it is defended by a military group armed with tanks, equipped with aircraft and MLRS, it is impossible to take it. But, of course, it can be RENTED. Surrender, as they surrendered Balakleya or the deserted Kupyansk. But it seems to me that the limit for the surrender of territories and cities has already been exceeded in the Kharkiv region. Moreover, today Kherson is a Russian city, and its surrender is a direct betrayal of the Russian lands. People are afraid not of defeat, but of betrayal.
fire bag
The curators are waiting for Zelensky to take a decisive “attack” on Kherson, they need him to take it with a fight:
The US and NATO allow the start of peace talks on Ukraine if Kyiv recaptures Kherson, the battle for which has both strategic and diplomatic significance
writes the Italian La Repubblica.
And we are withdrawing troops to previously prepared positions without a fight. Even Zelensky cannot understand this, expecting a trap, which does not prevent him from trolling the Kremlin:
You need to understand: no one just goes away from nowhere if they don’t feel the strength.
I am also waiting for the trap. While I'm still waiting. Somehow it doesn’t really look like an agreement with the Americans, it looks more like a swindler of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Everything was done too deliberately, as if for show, and an order to withdraw troops from the commander of the NVO Surovikin would be enough, and then for some reason Shoigu was also connected. Secondary bridges are blown up, communication towers, power lines, beds are taken out of hospitals, the remains of Prince Potemkin, monuments are dismantled, plus the administration and police are defiantly looted. Something is wrong here! There are too many minuses, which I mentioned above, with dubious pluses. And why do all this right now before the G-20? To publicly wipe their feet on Putin? They were waiting for November 8, the elections to the Congress, they could have waited for November 15, the beginning of the summit in Indonesia - they would not have lost anything. And to hand over a Russian city with a Russian population that voted for the Russian Federation - here you can not calculate with the return line from your own population. Hoping after that that the non-brothers will calm down and leave Crimea alone, only very short-sighted politicians can - Putin is definitely not like that! Plus, the behavior of Kadyrov and Prigozhin is alarming - either they could not forgive Lapin for the surrender of Krasny Liman, a small settlement with a population of 20 thousand inhabitants (more precisely, without a population), then they forgive Surovikin and Shoigu for the surrender of the only liberated regional center with a population 10 times larger (200 thousand), despite the fact that the possibilities of defense were not even half exhausted. All this is strange!
With the death of Stremousov, everything is also very suspicious - an accident on the way to Genichesk. Why on this particular day? The day before, on the air at Mordan, he honestly admitted that he could not even explain to himself the looting of the Regional State Administration and the departure of the security forces from the city. Most courageous man! Survived two assassination attempts. Second successful. Five children were left orphans. However, the driver of the car survived. I do not believe in such accidents, I think it's an imitation. So - I'm waiting for the continuation ... I'm not drawing conclusions yet.
Why Kherson is not Moscow, and Zelensky is not Napoleon
Epigraph: “Tell me, uncle, it’s not for nothing that Moscow, burned down by fire, was given to the French?” (M.Yu. Lermontov)
Under the guise of all these events in the Russian city of Kharkov, the monument to Pushkin, erected back in May 1904 in the very center of the city on Pushkinskaya Street, was demolished. The first time they tried to demolish it back in October of the same year, the militants of the terrorist organization "Defense of Ukraine" in the wake of the revolutionary events that I wrote about above (the first Russian revolution). But then they failed. But their modern followers did it perfectly - I personally saw the demolished Pushkin with a noose around his neck in a pile of construction debris (although I’m not sure that they won’t hand it over for a non-ferrous metal - the bust is still bronze). The next step of the ukrofascists will be to return the original name of the street - Nemetskaya. And what do you want, what heirs - these are the names.
Returning to Napoleon's sheep, with which I began this text, I dare to suggest that if the situation ends with the shameful surrender of the city without a fiery trap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then General Armageddon risks losing this proud nickname. Comparisons with Kutuzov, who surrendered Moscow to the French, are not appropriate here. Firstly, General Surovikin is not yet a field marshal (and his eyes are still fine), and secondly, Kherson is not Moscow. Entering Moscow, burned by fires, where only wine cellars remained intact, Napoleon sat down to wait for the keys to the city and the honorable surrender of the Russian Tsar. But he didn't wait. In the meantime, it began to freeze, the French army began to decompose, degrade and become an inveterate drunkard, but the Russian Tsar did not go. What was Napoleon to do? Move on to Kazan? Russia is big. And Napoleon began his retreat. How it ended for him, you know (the entire war of 1812 lasted six months and two days). How long our NWO lasts in Ukraine, you know without me.
Unlike Napoleon, Zelensky knows what to do. He has no intention of moving anywhere else. Having fortified on the right bank of the Dnieper, he will be able to establish fire control over the entire left bank to a depth of 70-80 km. And this means goodbye to the land corridor to the Crimea, which will be in the zone of fire damage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. By the way, he will also cut off the water to the Crimea. How do you like this perspective? The troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released from the right bank will soon find themselves in the Zaporozhye-Kryvyi Rih direction, where he will try to cut our group in the northern Azov region with one powerful blow to Melitopol-Berdyansk. Farewell then to the Azov ports, everything for which we fought for so long will be lost or, at least, will become a new battle zone. Like? I do not like it either! Weapons for this NATO will throw him, you can not even doubt it. This is such a sad picture of the near future that awaits us if we surrender Kherson.
Conclusions
You expect conclusions from me, I have them. Moreover, for many of you they may seem paradoxical. In the middle of the text, I said that I was waiting for a denouement, and between an agreement and a scam-trap, I choose a scam. But since the situation is dynamic and constantly changing, in the process of writing the text, I came to the paradoxical conclusion that neither one nor the other will happen. We are withdrawing troops from Kherson for a completely different, at the same time, the most banal reason - we stupidly do not have any logistical capabilities to hold this bridgehead. As you can see, the simplest and most obvious reason once again turned out to be the only correct one. Moreover, General Armageddon came to an understanding of this situation as soon as he took over, a month of holding the Kherson front only strengthened him in this thought. The only thing left was the small (and most difficult!) thing - how to convey this idea to our own population so that it would correctly perceive it. I had to connect Shoigu, and then, you yourself see what circles went on the water.
There is no talk of any agreements, as well as negotiations with the opposite side. Each of the parties takes an irreconcilable position, hoping to achieve the complete surrender of the opposing side. Therefore, the war will continue (from our side in the NBO format, but the name no longer plays a piano here). There is a people's war on both sides and each of them considers himself right. Well, everything will be decided on the battlefield. If the curators of the Kyiv regime decide to raise the stakes for us, they will supply their wards with missiles with an increased range (up to 300-500 km), which will be able to reach Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet base, fortunately, we provided them with a foothold in Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, I do not exclude also attacks on the Crimean bridge and, in general, the transformation of Crimea from a peninsula into an island with limited logistics and all the ensuing consequences. I also do not rule out the supply of American Abrams tanks and German Leopards-2, as well as American F-15 fighters and A-10 attack aircraft. How we will respond in this case, I do not even know. All hope is on Trump and the Republicans, who will cut the wishes of the Democrats and the insane grandfather Joe. We survived - having hypersound and "Poseidon", we cannot use them and hope for the prudence of insane Alzheimer's clients and other drug addicts.
The whole tragedy is that we still cannot defeat Ukraine by conventional methods (the word “so far” is important here), but we don’t know how to end this conflict, because the enemy has reached a state where the whole point of his existence is to fight with us, since it has no other sources of funding, except for external, all economy destroyed, and the remnants of the population are either fighting or surviving due to the war (including refugees living on EU subsidies). While the war is going on, funding continues; in case of victory, the Kyiv regime is counting on reparations from the losing side, i.e. us. What will happen in case of defeat, he tries not even to think, because there is no turning back, and no one wants to be declared war criminals. Therefore, the war will continue to the bitter end and to the last Ukrainian/Ukrainian. Until we resolve this issue in another way. What? You can offer your options.
This concludes the report on the topic. Your Mr. Z. I do not want anything, because this is far from the end and not even the middle. Everything bad is just beginning. If in 2014 only rabid Nazis were ready to die for Ukraine - representatives of right-wing radical groups, such as the Right Sector and Tryzub (banned in the Russian Federation), now 85% of the population of Ukraine can be safely attributed to them. True, the latter are still fighting without getting up from the sofas and not far from the refrigerator, but until the food there runs out, their hatred for the Russian Federation will not disappear. So Zelensky will have enough cannon fodder for years. If someone here naively believes that if they turn off the light, then their hatred for the Russian Federation will decrease, I hasten to disappoint - it will only increase, and with closed borders, they have only one road - to the front!
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