The surrender of Kherson calls into question the land corridor and water supply of Crimea

The decision to withdraw all Russian troops from Kherson to the left bank of the Dnieper, motivated by the need to save the lives of soldiers and maintain the combat capability of the Russian Armed Forces, adopted on November 9, 2022, has already yielded results. Alas, so far they have turned out to be strictly negative.

In fact, what is happening simply does not fit in the head, if we judge it from the point of view of Russia's national interests. The main problem, about which all those involved were trumpeting literally from the first days of the special operation, was the acute shortage of forces allocated for it by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Both for the offensive and for defense, numerous, well-armed, trained and motivated infantry were needed. What happens in its absence, we saw in the Kharkiv region after the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had to hastily leave their positions in order to avoid being surrounded. Shortly thereafter, Red Liman had to be abandoned.

Everyone feared a repetition of the Kupyansk-Izyum-Limansky scenario on the Southern Front, where the situation was little better. However, on September 21, President Putin announced the beginning of a partial mobilization in the country, and the situation gradually began to improve. On October 28, Defense Minister Shoigu reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief that the plan to mobilize 300 reservists had been completed, of which 82 had already been sent to the NVO zone. The number of the Russian group in Kherson was estimated at 20 people, but other, more significant figures were also mentioned. Everyone expected that already in November-December an additional several hundred thousand reservists would get to the front, and then it would be possible to start our counteroffensive. The priority areas were called Krivoy Rog-Nikolaev and Odessa, which would give Russia a strategic victory over the Kyiv regime. The key condition was the retention of the bridgehead on the Right Bank by the RF Armed Forces.

However, this "strange" NWO suddenly turned in a completely different direction. Instead of a counter-offensive and even the usual dead-end defense like Stalingrad, supported by artillery from the left bank and air strikes, Russian troops were ordered to evacuate from the right bank, surrendering it to the enemy without a fight. What did it give us?

At first, due to the threat of flooding of the low-lying Left Bank as a result of the undermining of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station by the Ukrainian Nazis, the RF Armed Forces took up positions prepared in advance on this very low-lying left bank of the Dnieper. I wonder what we will do if the APU does not blow up the dam, but simply starts to quickly dump water from it, first of all, flooding our side?

Secondly, the reliable water supply of the Crimea will now be in question. The Russian authorities could not solve this problem completely for 8 years by peaceful means, and this could only be done by military means. Yes, the main structures of the North Crimean Canal, through which the peninsula receives fresh water from the Dnieper, are located in Tavriysk, on the left bank. However, the entry of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Dnieper will allow them to carry out constant rocket and artillery shelling of the Russian water transport infrastructure, ultimately rendering it unusable, as happened earlier with the Antonovsky bridge and the crossing over the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.

Thirdly, now the highways Kherson - Armyansk, Kherson - Melitopol and Melitopol - Dzhankoy will be under the fire control of the enemy. That is, this is the same “land corridor” to the Crimea, the penetration of which is considered the second undoubted victory of Russia during the special operation after the resumption of fresh water supplies to Crimea. From the higher Right Bank of the Dnieper, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to calmly fire at the roads leading to the peninsula, disrupting its supply, as well as Crimea itself, its northern part. If Washington provides Kyiv with its missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, then from Kherson, abandoned by Russian troops, the enemy will be able to freely cover the main naval base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol. Its evacuation to Novorossiysk under the pretext of "saving the lives of sailors" and "preserving the combat capability" of ships and vessels of the Russian Navy seems to be a matter of time.

In other words, the positive effects for Crimea from the special operation, nine months after it began, are in danger of being reset to zero. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine, released from near Kherson, are able to ensure a successful offensive towards Berdyansk, this “land corridor” will be cut altogether, and the peninsula will turn into an “island” besieged and shot through by the enemy. The safety of the Crimean bridge in such conditions is of great concern. Ukrainian saboteurs have already demonstrated once that they can damage it.

And to complete the picture, here are a couple of quotes that characterize the attitude to what happened around Kherson. Literally today we they said that the NWO, conducted as it is, would hurt Russia's international prestige. And this, alas, has already happened.

In particular, the president of the still friendly Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, commented on the fact that the RF Armed Forces left the Right Bank without a fight:

I thought that the Russians would put up more resistance near Kherson, it’s obvious that I was wrong ... This shows us that we must understand that we must create our own future, take care of it, in a military sense, we must take care of ourselves if We want to maintain our military neutrality.

In general, the Kremlin in Belgrade is no longer counted on as a true ally. Naturally.

Ukrainian political emigrant Rostislav Ishchenko, widely known to the Russian public for the fact that for 8 years he has consistently justified the Minsk agreement as "Putin's cunning plan", now made a very bold forecast that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could create a strike force for an offensive deep into our territory, towards Moscow:

If our troops finally go to the left bank of the Kherson bridgehead, they will occupy a small arc from the Kakhovka reservoir to the junction of the borders of the Lugansk and Kharkov regions of the Russian Federation ...
For 7-8 hours, a column of military equipment, if it crosses the border in the Glukhov region, it will reach the capital at a speed of 70 kilometers per hour ... If a large group breaks in at night, reports of the capture of cities may go to the Kremlin by morning. It will be difficult for the military to immediately orient in which direction the offensive is going.

In general, they were "smartly planned."
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  1. archer 13 Offline archer 13
    archer 13 (Alexander Strelnikov) 11 November 2022 16: 13
    As long as there are devotees, not professionals, in the General Staff and the Defense Ministry, a bleak fate awaits us.
    1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
      vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 12 November 2022 13: 33
      Why are the generals here? Performer generals. Putin gives orders, he is the commander in chief. In the army, orders are carried out, not discussed.
      1. lord-palladore-11045 (PATE) 13 November 2022 00: 01
        What are the generals for? To wear a cap? All incompetent officers and generals to the court of officer honor!
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 11 November 2022 16: 22
    with the current strategist, after 9 months of bullying the army and the country, I personally would not be surprised if the war is already on the territory of Russia, then, according to the logic of the Kherson flight, we must leave our cities in order to avoid casualties from the military
    1. sgrabik Offline sgrabik
      sgrabik (Sergei) 11 November 2022 17: 00
      The army has been mocked since the liberal Eltsin times, but the huckster Serdyukov - Taburetkin played a special role in its reduction and so-called "optimization", but he was not the only one who did all this, with the tacit consent of the liberals, our army was "reformed" to pocket size, now we have what we have and we have no one to complain about, we ourselves are to blame for everything, now we urgently need to start correcting our mistakes, because without a modern powerful and combat-ready army we simply cannot survive, better late than never.
      1. Offline 12 November 2022 19: 06
        this is a call to whom, to performers on the front line or to a decision-making center, if the first is not at the right place, they did everything and even more, if the second, then this is also at the wrong address, since eggs don’t teach chicken .. ...!!!
  3. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 11 November 2022 18: 57
    Well done Ishchenko, sarcastic bitterness is felt in such a forecast, albeit a probabilistic one. Well, it's not fun for everyone, to put it mildly. Of course, such a group that breaks through will be a suicide group as soon as it breaks away from support and supplies, but the expert argues in the right direction.
    And if, indeed, instead of the borders of a possible agreement guaranteed by the staff, the fallow one will go into all serious trouble on a wave of enthusiasm from the obvious failures of the actions of the RF Armed Forces, then our General Staff and the Defense Ministry will have to more actively take up the matter of resetting the notorious decision-making centers, damn it!
  4. Semyon Sukhov Offline Semyon Sukhov
    Semyon Sukhov (Semyon Sukhov) 11 November 2022 19: 24
    This whole operation militarily until today is a colossal failure in politics, analysis, intelligence and military planning .... You don’t have to be an expert to see the obvious ... Without the restructuring of society, the country will face big problems ... The people and the army they are waiting for changes ... The people need leaders of the scale of Stalin ... although what could Stalin have done without the AUCPB and its party discipline? GDP is strong and serves as best it can in its own way, but does not reach the level of existing problems ... Inconsistent in economic reforms, soft-hearted in relation to leaders and figures of various stripes who have compromised themselves, indecisive in demonstrating strength ... Personnel failures in the form of Chubais and that Nabibulina is a brake on the development of the country ...
  5. Otto Davar Offline Otto Davar
    Otto Davar (Otto Davar) 11 November 2022 20: 52
    300000 mobilized is a total of about 50 motorized rifle divisions. But does the Russian Defense Ministry have the necessary number of framed units capable of accommodating such an abyss of people? I am already silent about the types of ground forces that are less critical to the number of personnel. Or are they going to fight "mounted on foot"? hi
  6. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 11 November 2022 21: 29
    I agree. The arguments of the leadership of the Russian Federation are more than pathetic and unconvincing. Perhaps NATO sounded an ultimatum to Russia and brought strong arguments that frightened Putin. But then it was necessary to honestly tell our people about this something like this: "We miscalculated the Russian people with the NMD, we are confronted by a stronger enemy, and in order not to be destroyed, we need to give in to him." And after such a statement, resign.
  7. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
    Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) 12 November 2022 06: 28
    Another couch experience for the fate of Russia.
  8. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 12 November 2022 10: 05
    There are no such fortresses that the bourgeoisie would not surrender ...
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  11. Ivanov IV Offline Ivanov IV
    Ivanov IV (Igor Vasilievich) 13 November 2022 08: 10
    Everything is explained in one word - IMPUNITY.
    The entire ruling elite is absolutely sure of impunity.
    And it is true. Look back at History, how many betrayals, how many Russian lands by different "rulers" were sold, distributed, proo.
    Remember the "sale" of the South Kuril Islands.
    And all with impunity.
    It was in 1917, after the betrayal of the tsar's lackeys, that the soldiers returned home with weapons and swept away all the corrupt ones.
    Now the men have been sent to Banderlogia to die until the "hucksters" come to an agreement.
    And back, with weapons, no one will let them in.
    Dead means dead.
  12. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 16 November 2022 12: 24
    It's very possible. The facts confirm that after the first days of surprise, the Armed Forces of Ukraine quickly recovered and are constantly moving towards the Russian Federation, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already constantly losing territory. Ukraine has brought up motivated citizens in 30 years, while Russia has been mired in a neoliberal ideological quagmire, which is actually alien to it, relaxing it. Here is the result.