Why China has not become a reliable rear for Russia in the confrontation with the West


Long before the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, which resulted in a proxy war with the entire collective West, one myth was very popular in Russia. According to him, our Great Eastern Neighbor China had to stand with us shoulder to shoulder or, if you like, back to back, providing, if not direct military assistance, then at least militarytechnical support, as well as promptly close all gaping gaps in import substitution. The reality turned out to be somewhat different.


Chinese "Dragon" Russian "Bear" is not a friend?


Recall that the solemn “pivot to the East” was announced by President Putin in 2014 immediately after the Maidan in Ukraine, the return of Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia, the declaration of independence of the DPR and LPR, the start of the UAF terrorist operation in the Donbass, as well as the introduction of the first Western sanctions. An agreement was promptly signed to start construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the PLA of the PRC began to conduct joint exercises more often.

Frankly speaking, all this looked like a kind of blackmail of a united Europe in the spirit - look how we can do without you, if anything, that is an imitation. Eight years later, we managed to find out in practice what this very friendship with China is worth. The result was not entirely clear.

On the one hand, the volume of trade between Russia and China is growing year by year. In the first eight months of 2022, it increased by 33% and reached $153,93 billion. Not far off is the 200 billion mark, which was planned to be reached only by 2024 under optimistic scenarios. And it pleases, because about a certain economic So far, there is no need to talk about the isolation of Russia. On the other hand, there are questions about the structure of this mutual trade.

Russian exports to the Celestial Empire have grown by almost 50% since the beginning of the year to the amount of $94 billion. At the same time, 68% of it was oil, fuel and refined products, 22% - copper and rolled metal, 5% of the total turnover - rough wood and ores, and only a small share of our exports to China were "mechanical devices". The volume of Chinese exports to Russia turned out to be much more modest, only 60 billion dollars, and it grew by only 13% over the specified period. Its structure is presented as follows: mechanical machines and electrical equipment occupy 25%, another 44% are distributed between clothing, footwear, optical devices and plastics, cars account for only 6%.

What do these numbers say?

Russia continues to send raw materials to China, receiving conditional consumer goods in return. In other words, instead of getting away from technological dependence on the part of the collective West and making real import substitution, our country has become a “raw material appendage” for the Celestial Empire. At the same time, the Chinese partners are actively taking advantage of the difficult geopolitical situation in which the Russian Federation finds itself in order to beat huge discounts on the purchased raw materials out of it. China has not become a reliable rear for our country.

Today, Beijing has sharply reduced its purchases of LNG, which has increased significantly in price, and has increased the consumption of cheap pipeline gas from Russia and Turkmenistan, the price of which is pegged not to spot, but to oil. That is, a “penny”, of course, drips, but not a big one. Thanks to the hastily and defiantly concluded agreement on the construction of the "Force of Siberia". From the Power of Siberia - 2 project we are waiting for the next unpleasant surprises in terms of the pricing formula.

If someone is comfortable considering this "help and support", so be it. But in fact, more use so far from other countries. Oddly enough, these are Turkey and Kazakhstan, which have turned into logistics hubs through which Russia has established the so-called parallel imports.

Having found themselves under sectoral Western sanctions and not having the technological ability to quickly carry out import substitution, the Russian authorities had to allow the import of a wide range of goods into the country without the consent of their right holders. Among them were foreign cars and spare parts for them, electronics, equipment for the leading sectors of the economy, as well as various consumer goods. This list is limited and established by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Signed on 28 June 2022 by President Putin, the Law on Parallel Imports officially exempted gray import companies from administrative and criminal liability.

It is quite obvious that this practice will now become permanent, as Minister Manturov hinted at:

While we are talking about an extension for 2023, and then how it will turn out.

Initially, it was assumed that the main “entry points” would be China, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Kazakhstan, but in fact now the largest logistics hubs of parallel imports to Russia have become “multi-vector” Turkey and increasingly “multi-vector” Kazakhstan. China, on the other hand, prefers to remain on the sidelines for the time being, since for it our country is an important, but far from the main trading partner.
23 comments
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  1. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 9 November 2022 13: 18
    +17
    And why should China even care about our prosperity more than our own leadership?? Comrade Xi elected to steer the PRC, not the Russian Federation ..
  2. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 9 November 2022 13: 44
    +7
    It seems to me that reasonable people did not have any illusions about China and its support, in many respects this myth was imposed by media propaganda.
    From the point of view of a raw material appendage - yes, we fall into dependence on them (India, China, etc.), what can we do, this is the role of modern Russia, we cannot build a closed economy following the example of the USSR.
  3. Oleg Osadchiy Offline Oleg Osadchiy
    Oleg Osadchiy (Oleg Osadchiy) 9 November 2022 15: 17
    +3
    The question, of course, is stupid, but if the person who asked it and then tried to answer it simply decided to make money by writing a lot of letters. Then I, in turn, want to ask him a question. And why didn’t the USA and Great Britain become a reliable rear of the USSR in the war with Nazi Germany, and did everything only for loot? And only when the USSR ran out of steam, fighting with the last of its strength and suffering losses that have not yet been replenished in terms of human resources, and everything else. Or did you study poorly at school, and then wherever you studied?
    1. i232323b Offline i232323b
      i232323b (Igor) 10 November 2022 06: 45
      -3
      fighting with the last of his strength and suffering losses that have not yet been replenished in terms of human resources, and everything else

      On the other hand, human resources, as we see, were well replenished from the descendants of the NKVDists - GPUushnikov and other guards ...
    2. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 10 November 2022 12: 50
      +3
      Well, parallels ... (oh fool! ©)
  4. A.Toroschin Offline A.Toroschin
    A.Toroschin (Alexander) 9 November 2022 17: 12
    -11
    After defeating the Eurekas and the Biden, it will be the turn of the cross-eyed, we do not get used to burying former friends.
    1. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 10 November 2022 12: 51
      +2
      And where are we going to bury them?
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 9 November 2022 18: 36
    +6
    Strange statements.
    Even the Kremlin did not really insist on this myth - there are many hand-shaking traitors (socialism) for the Chinese, they regularly showed this, regularly turned up their noses from our corruption.
    And dachas are in our power, and yachts are also not in China ....
    Foreign trade with Russia - despite the neo-colonial supplies to the mother country - is not that big compared to Asia and the West.

    So "Rear for confrontation with the West" is nothing more than a convenient PR for the authorities ...
    In real life, they write, they remember that the land before Baikal was once theirs, just not up to it now ...
  6. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 9 November 2022 18: 47
    +8
    They can be understood. President with eternal goodwill gestures and hundreds of red lines in his hands.
  7. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 9 November 2022 21: 10
    0
    Unfriendly state formations - almost all economically developed state formations of the world on which all the rest depend to one degree or another, including “friendly” ones, and if India, Brazil or Turkey, a NATO member, is allowed to increase trade turnover with the Russian Federation, then this is in the interests of unfriendly state formations that have declared Russia is an enemy and set a goal to decolonize it. The reorientation of the Russian Federation to the east is in the interests of the PRC and allows it to dictate the price of energy resources to the Russian Federation in exchange for consumer goods, without being subject to sanctions from state entities unfriendly to the Russian Federation and thus essentially playing into their hands.
  8. anclevalico Offline anclevalico
    anclevalico (Victor) 10 November 2022 07: 23
    +9
    In fact, the civilian population and the economy have always been considered a reliable rear. And not some hypothetical "friends" that Russia never had. The spineless power, having no will, is constantly trying to rely on someone.
    1. goncharov.62 Online goncharov.62
      goncharov.62 (Andrei) 10 November 2022 14: 38
      +1
      Spinal ... For them, the ridge is 44-FZ, 223-FZ, and a bunch of others, making the opportunity for a small business to work normally an unrealizable dream. And at Comrade. Artels made the first Soviet TV set for Stalin...
  9. Sam Rimer Offline Sam Rimer
    Sam Rimer (Sam Rimer) 10 November 2022 10: 28
    +4
    Was in the PLA Museum in Beijing 4 years ago. There is a large exposition about Damansky. Everywhere posters "Damansky ours!". USSR - "paper tiger". There is even a captured tank, like the T-62. The spectacle is not very good. In this country, Russian-speakers and not only them, but also other whites and all kinds of foreigners are treated with contempt. And some fools are ready to kiss them, you know where. So or not?
    1. syndicalist Offline syndicalist
      syndicalist (Dimon) 10 November 2022 11: 46
      -1
      There are many such museums in China. All of Siberia on Chinese maps is designated as "temporarily lost Chinese northern territory." Baikal is their "Great Chinese North Sea". But today Comrade Xi's appetites extend much further than Baikal and Siberia. Now there is a real opportunity to get all of Russia. Whole. No remainder. In this case, China will be guaranteed against a possible revenge in the event of the revival of Russia.
      This topic will probably be finally resolved next week at Biden's meeting with the Chinese leader. If in the end they announce that they have reached a complete agreement on the Taiwan problem, this will mean that Taiwan has been exchanged for Russia. Taiwan will go under the United States, And Russia under China. And there will be no need for any Chinese military intervention. Everything will be amicable, under the sauce of the revival of the USSR.
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 10 November 2022 13: 37
        +3
        (Dimon) Well, yes, we have Finland, the tribaltic with other Ukraine, and Poland, are also primordial Russian lands. We must not forget the 70s, when the revisionism of the USSR was the main enemy of the PRC, and the United States promoted China for this. Everything has changed, the Russian Federation has become an ally against the enemy of the United States, and the PRC, according to the initial efforts of the United States, is becoming the first economic and military power in the world. As long as the United States exists, Russian lands are not relevant for China, more important cooperation and nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation in the confrontation between China and the United States.
    2. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 10 November 2022 12: 55
      +2
      Well well! But you would have hammered it into Putin's head, and we have known about it for so long. And about their textbooks and about maps to the Urals and much more.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 11 November 2022 00: 01
        -2
        You might think Putin does not know about these cards. Now they have maps, and we have territories. Therefore, it is completely stupid to aggravate relations with China because of stupid pieces of paper.
        When necessary, there will be real maps, where it is clear and understandable which territories are historically Chinese.
        When Theresa May started working (if anyone forgot - the World Bank Prime Minister recently), she brought a gift during her visit to China. Original map from the 18th century. Map - China. The northern border of China is exactly along the Great Wall of China. And so on all frontiers.
        And China itself at that time was not an empire, but a kingdom under the control of the emperor of Tartaria.
        Comrade Xi thanked for the gift with a sour face (the eyes completely disappeared) and that's it, wiped himself off.
        There are a lot of these cards, Xi knows about them very well. Putin (no doubt) too.
        Therefore, no one will create problems from scratch. Not the time.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 11 November 2022 00: 25
          -2
          Sorry, Merkel gave me the card. Teresa brought another gift.
    3. Atmospheric QUEEN (Atmospheric QUEEN) 11 November 2022 09: 45
      +1
      China will never be our friend. This is a criminal misconception. The fact that now we supposedly have friendly relations is also not true. China, building up its armed forces with advanced weapons, developing one of the most powerful economies in the world, uses Russia's cheap energy resources for this. When he becomes a global leader in the world, he will be the first to crush Russia.
  10. Konstantin_2 Offline Konstantin_2
    Konstantin_2 (Konstantin Alexandrovich) 10 November 2022 17: 52
    +3
    Poor Russia, deceived again.
    It is necessary to engage in internal prosperity, invest in industry, conquer markets.
    And if they got involved in "Crimea-ours", then it was necessary to go to the end - and take all of Novorossia. There would be no resistance at all.
  11. faiver Offline faiver
    faiver (Andrei) 11 November 2022 17: 20
    +3
    and who needs a weak, unreliable, but puffy cheeks from his own complacency, partner in business?
  12. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 13 November 2022 21: 59
    0
    Maybe this was done to do with China the same thing that was done with the USSR?
  13. sacha1960 Offline sacha1960
    sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) 15 November 2022 20: 52
    0
    The author is always whining, everyone is to blame, except for Putin.