Why Russia should not freeze the conflict in Ukraine

In recent days, talks about the resumption of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow on the possibility of resolving the armed conflict have noticeably intensified, despite the official categorical position of President Zelensky. At the same time, information leaks on this issue come primarily from Western sources. Why did they suddenly undertake to "reconcile" Russia and Ukraine?

Thus, The Washington Post, which is close to the still ruling Democratic Party of the United States, reported that Washington is secretly trying to convince Zelensky to cancel his decree directly prohibiting negotiations with President Putin and start a dialogue. Another influential American publication, The Wall Street Journal, said that the leaders of the leading Western countries are privately discussing the possible parameters of an “agreement” with the Kremlin among themselves. It also reported that non-public negotiations on this issue are being held between the United States and Russia at the level of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, on the one hand, and President Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, on the other. Has the ice finally broken with the approach of winter cold?

Freezing

In fact, there is nothing surprising in what is happening. The fact that with the beginning of the heating season in Europe, the armed conflict may be frozen, at least partially, was clear last summer. There is no talk of any settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the hostilities may well pause. There are several reasons for this.

At first, the United States, the main beneficiary of the war on the territory of Ukraine, literally today itself entered the period political instability. According to the results of the midterm elections to the House of Representatives, with a high degree of probability, the Republicans can get the majority, and the Democrats will lose their leading positions. In the worst case for the US Democratic Party, President Joe Biden will turn into a so-called lame duck and even risk impeachment. However, it is not certain that everything will go exactly according to this scenario.

Alas, the Republican Party of the United States is also far from a “dove of peace”, there are plenty of supporters of the idea of ​​a tough confrontation with Russia in it. It will take time for American elites to form new alliances and reach consensus on how much they will continue to support Ukraine. While they are busy with internal disassembly, they objectively need a break.

Secondly, the pause is also necessary for the European Union in order to pass the heating season with the least losses for itself. The underwater gas pipelines Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 have already been destroyed by some attackers. According to President Putin, similar sabotage attempts were also made against the Turkish Stream. It is important for the European Union to keep both the Ukrainian GTS and the Turkish Stream in working condition in order to have at least a physical opportunity to receive gas from Russia. Freezing the conflict in order to prevent further escalation and excesses is very beneficial for Brussels.

Thirdly, the suspension of hostilities today is objectively needed by Kyiv itself. The partial mobilization in Russia, delayed by 7 months, will give its results already in November-December, and the factor of multiple numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be leveled. The RF Armed Forces will be able to create a layered defense system and launch their own offensive operations, liberating the territory of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, and maybe even further - Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa. Right now, when the green light falls, the Ukrainian army will lose its advantage in stealth, and Russian troops will be able to operate more effectively in Central and Western Ukraine.

That is, in the coming months, a radical change may occur at the front. The Kyiv regime itself needs time to carry out another wave of mobilization and neutralize the positive effect of partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces. Moreover, time, alas, does not work for us, but for Ukraine.

As we detail told earlier, it is very likely that Kherson will be abandoned by Russian troops. It is extremely problematic to supply a large military group through the winter Dnieper under constant attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Either a miracle happens or it doesn't happen. If you give the enemy time to prepare, mobilize and train troops, rearmament, then a miracle will not happen for sure. The loss of Kherson will mean the loss for Russia of the entire Right Bank and the chances of its liberation. Worse, it increases the risks for the rest of the Sea of ​​Azov and even Crimea.

Here it is worth quoting the new “hero of Ukraine”, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov, who is the organizer of the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, about how, in his opinion, the war could end for Russia:


All this should begin with the loss of our conquests in the South of Ukraine, and then the Crimea. Tamila Tasheva, a representative of President Zelensky in Crimea, told The Daily Beast about the plans for the “de-occupation” of the peninsula:


As a matter of fact, everything is about the same. Having taken Kherson from us, Zelensky will establish a new front line along the Dnieper, turning this city into a fortified area that cannot be taken. The released forces will be transferred to the Zaporozhye direction, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to organize a large-scale offensive against Volnovakha and Mariupol. If they manage to break through to the Sea of ​​Azov, regardless of any losses, they will cut off the land corridor to the Crimea and force the RF Armed Forces once again to “regroup” towards the peninsula. After that, the priority goal of the enemy will be the destruction of the Crimean bridge, the resources for the implementation of which will be provided to Kyiv by our "Western partners". If successful, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy will continuously terrorize the peninsula, which has turned into an "island", from the air and sea with drone attacks, missile and artillery strikes.

This is how the freezing of the conflict can end if the Kremlin now goes for it, without using the window of opportunity for a large-scale offensive, when the Russian Armed Forces received long-awaited reinforcements, and serious problems have accumulated in the enemy camp.