Why Russia should not freeze the conflict in Ukraine

In recent days, talks about the resumption of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow on the possibility of resolving the armed conflict have noticeably intensified, despite the official categorical position of President Zelensky. At the same time, information leaks on this issue come primarily from Western sources. Why did they suddenly undertake to "reconcile" Russia and Ukraine?

Thus, The Washington Post, which is close to the still ruling Democratic Party of the United States, reported that Washington is secretly trying to convince Zelensky to cancel his decree directly prohibiting negotiations with President Putin and start a dialogue. Another influential American publication, The Wall Street Journal, said that the leaders of the leading Western countries are privately discussing the possible parameters of an “agreement” with the Kremlin among themselves. It also reported that non-public negotiations on this issue are being held between the United States and Russia at the level of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, on the one hand, and President Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, on the other. Has the ice finally broken with the approach of winter cold?


In fact, there is nothing surprising in what is happening. The fact that with the beginning of the heating season in Europe, the armed conflict may be frozen, at least partially, was clear last summer. There is no talk of any settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the hostilities may well pause. There are several reasons for this.

At first, the United States, the main beneficiary of the war on the territory of Ukraine, literally today itself entered the period political instability. According to the results of the midterm elections to the House of Representatives, with a high degree of probability, the Republicans can get the majority, and the Democrats will lose their leading positions. In the worst case for the US Democratic Party, President Joe Biden will turn into a so-called lame duck and even risk impeachment. However, it is not certain that everything will go exactly according to this scenario.

Alas, the Republican Party of the United States is also far from a “dove of peace”, there are plenty of supporters of the idea of ​​a tough confrontation with Russia in it. It will take time for American elites to form new alliances and reach consensus on how much they will continue to support Ukraine. While they are busy with internal disassembly, they objectively need a break.

Secondly, the pause is also necessary for the European Union in order to pass the heating season with the least losses for itself. The underwater gas pipelines Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 have already been destroyed by some attackers. According to President Putin, similar sabotage attempts were also made against the Turkish Stream. It is important for the European Union to keep both the Ukrainian GTS and the Turkish Stream in working condition in order to have at least a physical opportunity to receive gas from Russia. Freezing the conflict in order to prevent further escalation and excesses is very beneficial for Brussels.

Thirdly, the suspension of hostilities today is objectively needed by Kyiv itself. The partial mobilization in Russia, delayed by 7 months, will give its results already in November-December, and the factor of multiple numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be leveled. The RF Armed Forces will be able to create a layered defense system and launch their own offensive operations, liberating the territory of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, and maybe even further - Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa. Right now, when the green light falls, the Ukrainian army will lose its advantage in stealth, and Russian troops will be able to operate more effectively in Central and Western Ukraine.

That is, in the coming months, a radical change may occur at the front. The Kyiv regime itself needs time to carry out another wave of mobilization and neutralize the positive effect of partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces. Moreover, time, alas, does not work for us, but for Ukraine.

As we detail told earlier, it is very likely that Kherson will be abandoned by Russian troops. It is extremely problematic to supply a large military group through the winter Dnieper under constant attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Either a miracle happens or it doesn't happen. If you give the enemy time to prepare, mobilize and train troops, rearmament, then a miracle will not happen for sure. The loss of Kherson will mean the loss for Russia of the entire Right Bank and the chances of its liberation. Worse, it increases the risks for the rest of the Sea of ​​Azov and even Crimea.

Here it is worth quoting the new “hero of Ukraine”, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov, who is the organizer of the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, about how, in his opinion, the war could end for Russia:

There are two options for how this war will end for Russia. The first is the division of Russia into three or more parts. And the second is the relative preservation of Russia's territorial integrity when the country's leadership changes (...) here Russia will give up all the territories it occupies.

All this should begin with the loss of our conquests in the South of Ukraine, and then the Crimea. Tamila Tasheva, a representative of President Zelensky in Crimea, told The Daily Beast about the plans for the “de-occupation” of the peninsula:

General Budanov also mentioned that we can de-occupy the territory of Crimea at the end of spring 2023 and possibly in the summer. I really believe that we will return Crimea back to Ukraine in a shorter time frame…
Before engaging in Crimea, we must first expel Russia from Kherson… We understand that this is indeed connected: the de-occupation of Crimea is connected with the situation on the battlefield, in the southern part of Ukraine, especially with the de-occupation of Kherson.

As a matter of fact, everything is about the same. Having taken Kherson from us, Zelensky will establish a new front line along the Dnieper, turning this city into a fortified area that cannot be taken. The released forces will be transferred to the Zaporozhye direction, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to organize a large-scale offensive against Volnovakha and Mariupol. If they manage to break through to the Sea of ​​Azov, regardless of any losses, they will cut off the land corridor to the Crimea and force the RF Armed Forces once again to “regroup” towards the peninsula. After that, the priority goal of the enemy will be the destruction of the Crimean bridge, the resources for the implementation of which will be provided to Kyiv by our "Western partners". If successful, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy will continuously terrorize the peninsula, which has turned into an "island", from the air and sea with drone attacks, missile and artillery strikes.

This is how the freezing of the conflict can end if the Kremlin now goes for it, without using the window of opportunity for a large-scale offensive, when the Russian Armed Forces received long-awaited reinforcements, and serious problems have accumulated in the enemy camp.
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  1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 8 November 2022 15: 46
    Already once they went to freeze the conflict (Minsk), so what??? These clowns only laughed at us and shelled Donbass for eight years. Enough frost. Finish off the fascist bastard once and for all.
    1. ja.net.1975 Offline ja.net.1975
      ja.net.1975 9 November 2022 20: 54
      and who and what has changed in Russia in eight years, everything and everything is the same, the same ....
    2. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 9 November 2022 21: 06
      Why Russia should not freeze the conflict in Ukraine

      So ...
      Leaving Kherson is defrosting or freezing ..?
      Or just crap again ... flied ...?
    3. Yyrp Offline Yyrp
      Yyrp (Valentine) 10 November 2022 05: 57
      Yes, we will finish off the fascist reptile in its lair.
  2. Alex Nevs Offline Alex Nevs
    Alex Nevs (Alex) 8 November 2022 15: 48
    What is it like? Having flown so high as to "see everything around", start cutting off your wings. Is it slower but faster to cut off.
  3. Nelton Online Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 8 November 2022 16: 12
    a fortified area that cannot be taken
    Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to organize a large-scale attack on Volnovakha and Mariupol
    time, alas, does not work for us, but for Ukraine.

    Cornet, pull yourself together, what is this panic and confusion?
    The Armed Forces of Ukraine had enough time to turn Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, Zaporozhye, etc. into a "fortified area that cannot be taken" (C).
    if we assume that they also have enough forces to "organize a large-scale attack on Volnovakha and Mariupol", pushing through the positions of the Russian Federation prepared for defense,
    then rushing to their defense (much more prepared) would be suicide.

    And for whom time works - the question.
    In a global sense, it works for Asia against the US and especially the EU.

    In the local - the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation has the opportunity to make up for the shortcomings that the SVO has revealed -
    drones, corrected planning bombs, thermal imagers.
    "Kalashnikov" is already reporting on the start of deliveries of UAVs to the army.

    Everything is decided in the economy.
    As long as she holds on, and holds on with dignity.
  4. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 8 November 2022 16: 19
    The main thing, if there is a "freeze" of the conflict, is not to waste time, to draw conclusions from the past 8 years, to engage in real changes in the defense industry and the Moscow Region, and not reports, parades and biathlons.
  5. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 8 November 2022 16: 34
    Freezing would be the worst solution? Then Putin is guaranteed to make such a decision. There is no such bestiality in relation to his own citizens, to which he would not go.
  6. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) 8 November 2022 18: 40
    Again, the headline was written by enemies ....
    Where is the conflict in Ukraine? Maybe with Ukraine.
    All hostilities take place on the territory of Russia.
  7. Atmospheric QUEEN (Atmospheric QUEEN) 8 November 2022 18: 50
    70% of Russians do not support Putin, but the NWO. Putin, unlike the Ukrainians, talks more than anyone about the negotiations. If he goes to reconciliation, the Russian people will not forgive him for this.
    1. borisvt Offline borisvt
      borisvt (boris) 9 November 2022 00: 32
      By the way, yes. I think that the GDP senses this very well, and in public opinion it has detailed information for sure.
      1. sap Offline sap
        sap (Alex) 10 November 2022 14: 31
        He doesn't hear anything. He lives in his own bunker and does not blow his mustache. He apparently believes that we are cleaning up the outskirts of Lisbon and soon Europe will be from him to Vladivostok. All his small fussy movements say just that he is not at all in the subject. if he had sensed it, he had long ago put all the shobla from his entourage on the bunk, and his goddaughter was always roaming across the border on foot, as an ambassador with offers of surrender on honorable terms.
    2. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 9 November 2022 21: 10
      he talks about a lot of things and meanwhile everything is in place (23 years - a whole work experience)

      the secret is that he (or they) do not care what the people there think to themselves. Any choices are already chosen.
  8. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
    Oleg_5 (Oleg) 8 November 2022 19: 21
    Because there will be no freezing.
    +300 thousand people - not for defense.
    1. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 9 November 2022 21: 12
      300 thousand, unfortunately, forced defenders of whose interests it is not clear, but certainly not the people
  9. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 8 November 2022 19: 21
    Freezing the conflict in Ukraine is exactly what Russia needs. Gaining time is the main thing. You need to take a break and dig in. And for Russia at this time, General Moroz will take over, provided, of course, that the Russian Armed Forces have caused irreparable damage to the energy system of Ukraine. Western aid will not help the Bandera people here, they have a poor idea of ​​what real winter is
    1. Konstantin Rokossovsky (Konstantin Rokossovsky) 9 November 2022 05: 59
      Freezing the conflict in Ukraine is exactly what Russia does not need - this is Minsk-3.
      In order not to leave Kherson, it is necessary to strike from Belgorod to Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev and Odessa. There are no fortified areas on this line that cannot be taken. There are no problems with the supply of troops as in Kherson. As soon as the mobilized are ready, it is necessary to start the offensive on the first snow and frost.
  10. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 8 November 2022 19: 28
    Why did they suddenly undertake to "reconcile" Russia and Ukraine?

    Today Norkin, in his program on NTV, put the question point-blank. Why do we constantly talk about the concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction and why do not we destroy these forces, and the railway. As a result, the expert Sivkov let slip that people in Russia need these railway roads!!! And such frank reservations from all sorts of "experts" are already enough. Our enemies constantly say what they need, and select people who would like to fulfill these. And these people, surrounded by Putin, it is not clear what they can do. The freeze has been in place for several months now. The main thing! And we have things to do - they are digging trenches along the entire front line and strengthening the defense!
    Only by betrayal can we leave Kherson! There is no other way to explain it!
    1. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
      Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 8 November 2022 19: 40
      Enough already talking about "Putin's entourage". Let's face it, he is the head of this "environment".
      1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
        Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 8 November 2022 19: 57
        Yes, but there is also feedback
      2. Mobius Offline Mobius
        Mobius 9 November 2022 07: 39
        Quote: Kuramori Reika
        Enough already talking about "Putin's entourage". Let's face it, he is the head of this "environment".

        Otherwise, it cannot be!
        With only one caveat, that nevertheless, to some extent - "The retinue makes the king", influencing his activities, decisions.
    2. Atmospheric QUEEN (Atmospheric QUEEN) 9 November 2022 13: 02
      Not people in Russia need Ukrainian railways, but Russian, greedy and corrupt billionaires. With the exception of one of this list. The owner and founder of PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin. Indeed, a patriot of Russia, unlike the rest of the moneybags of Russia.
  11. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 9 November 2022 00: 46
    The most relevant article, there was a smell of Minsk-3 and Sergey could not help but react!
    And not only him. Sberbank shares went up on Monday, because finances are cynical and have better insider knowledge than all the experts put together)) There is a team from Washingtondown to "sit", well, or "to the foot" at least, instead of the usual "face". Zelya breathed habitually often, waiting for a handout.
    And what about the GDP and his faithful Shoigu (excuse the expression)? There are no fools on this level; moreover, I am sure that our Commander-in-Chief is a man not without vindictiveness. I can imagine what I would do and feel after in 2021, at a meeting of the Normandy Four, Zelya turned his face while Putin politely read about the importance of fulfilling the ill-fated Minsk agreements, and in general.
    In general, I have a version that Sullivan heard from Patrushev a tough scenario for the development of events, and, elementarily, pri...al. I reported to my own, and they also pris..ali. We decided to take a break so as not to anger the Russians further. Not?
  12. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 9 November 2022 02: 29
    there is hardly any talk of freezing the conflict. Russia is seeking one thing - the start of negotiations. Many attribute this to the Kremlin's desire to end the conflict, taking comfort in what is now under control. As if Moscow will give Ukraine into the clutches of NATO and will be forced to prepare for the next round of the war. But is it really so?

    Calls from the West to start negotiations is the beginning of capitulation (political). After calls for negotiations, the West will no longer be able to call for the continuation of hostilities, which is also very useful.

    The very act of surrender will be formalized when the West will force / force Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table.

    Russia's goal is not to freeze the conflict. The goal is to start negotiations. The very beginning of negotiations will pose a more serious threat to Kyiv than all the Geranki put together.

    And there is nothing to be afraid of, Russia cannot give back the territory of the Russian Federation, this is the first thing. Second, Kyiv will have to abandon NATO, and this will also be big news.

    It is not right for Russia now to launch a large-scale offensive "on the eve of negotiations." But after a couple of weeks of negotiations, it will be possible to say "Kyiv demands the return of Crimea, they could not agree" and start a large-scale offensive here. There will be a clear connection between the actions of Kyiv and the consequences. Let's remember the Krymksky bridge, actions - consequences (strike on energy). This is how the Russian side legitimizes its actions, which without such legitimation would look like aggression. Do not forget that no matter how you say it, we invaded Ukraine and we are the stronger side. Therefore, too much to solve everything by force is not suitable here.

    And as for "let's sign everything now", but we will immediately prepare for revenge, then it's too late for such options. The end of the Kyiv regime. Nobody needs him anymore. Everyone wants to eliminate it, Europe, the USA, Russia, the whole world and the Ukrainians themselves.
    1. ja.net.1975 Offline ja.net.1975
      ja.net.1975 9 November 2022 21: 01
      a coward and a weakling finds solace in finding excuses for himself...
    2. sap Offline sap
      sap (Alex) 10 November 2022 14: 12
      Think small, dear! Having managed and struck first, Putin made Russia an aggressor in the eyes of the world community (not without the help of Western partners). Stalin (whom Putin still dislikes out of envy of his popularity among the people) did not succumb to provocations and thereby made Germany an aggressor. Now, no matter what we do, Russia remains the aggressor. And the only possibility is to decisively end Western aid already on the western borders of Ukraine! And ... further, with all the power available in Russia (military, economic, political), crush Zelensky's puppet regime. The West will swallow with pleasure. But the Europeans will not allow it to start a NATO war with Russia from the territory of Western Europe. That while they will talk about Russia do not care. Read the newspaper filings about what the newspapers were talking about before September 1.09.1939, XNUMX about Hitler. Yes, we do not care that then someone will say something. Winners are not judged. The losers are judged. Negotiations not about the surrender of Ukraine is not just a crime - it's a mistake
    3. borisvt Offline borisvt
      borisvt (boris) 10 November 2022 22: 26
      I agree, yes, the GDP is too afraid of the force. He still wants to hang out quietly among his own kind, driving around the summits with a paternal smile))
      And now it’s time for his favorite element: even with a jitter, he won’t give up water to the Crimea, the land route there too, the remnants of the left-bank independence remain in a very difficult situation, and he will gladly explore a new clearing for the suffocating techniques of his favorite judo: SCOSOBRICS, gas oil, Iran, fertilizers, Turkey, etc.
      I would also not rule out the Chinese-Taiwanese scenario, it is possible that it is close, perhaps it is not for nothing that the staff suddenly became so kind that they allowed transactions to our embassy. Yes, and Sberbank shares are rising sharply))
  13. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 9 November 2022 10: 24
    Empty chatter.
    everyone is just pretending - ah, we are for negotiations, white and fluffy, so give up ...
  14. Vadim Sharygin Offline Vadim Sharygin
    Vadim Sharygin (Citizen) 10 November 2022 02: 42
    By starting the NMD, Russia stirred up a hornet's or snake's nest of nationalism of the highest category, implicated in the propaganda nurtured in recent years and many years of fierce hatred for everything Russian. Millions of madmen will not give peace to Russia under any peace agreements. We will no longer receive a NATO foothold, but a fuse from a vigorous bomb in the hands of inadequate haters. Therefore, there is no turning back. The president will have to suspend peaceful life forever by his decree and mobilize all the forces and means of the country for the "last and decisive". We are talking about the very existence of the Russian state. If not everyone has understood this at the top, or everyone except for some, but key figures, then our people will have, oh, how, not sweet: mobilization will be emergency, and hunger, and China in the back and NATO in the ribs! We must be prepared for the worst. In all seriousness: no one will really protect us anymore, this is clear, like a flash of a vigorous bomb on the horizon. Since ours will not dare to use tactical nuclear weapons, they will be the first to hit us with ukronato, and now the main thing is to check the condition of the shelters, prepare new shelters, we need to agree on future sanitary corridors to save women, the elderly and children - those who will survive. Ruined Russia. But on the other hand, they themselves are to blame: they exchanged faith, albeit naive, in a bright future for a consumer society, in fact, over the past decades - they have degraded in everything, in all areas: they sold and resold their romance, youth and childhood, they exchanged their souls on "shower handles"! Who could steal in echelons, billions, who could not in billions of dollars - they took out mini-credits in the amount of forty-odd billion rubles for the comfort of everyday life. All the best - art, culture, science, church service - everything is, to a large extent, left in the past. All the best have died. All the children of the best are dying now. Those who are still in the reserve know that the hour of reckoning for consumer life will soon come to nowhere. But it would be necessary to disappear from the face of the earth with dignity, without bitterness, but also in such a way that Ukronazism, in the majority of its carriers, would approach hell, with hell on earth, at a faster pace!
  15. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 10 November 2022 12: 37
    In 1991, in the Soviet Union, consider Russia, there was a coup d'état, nosy, lupy capitalists seized power, and from there all the troubles of the Russian state grow, look deeper. The capitalists of the Russian Federation want to live in a golden billion and rob the Russian people. They go to any lengths to return to their golden times. Putin, Yeltsin's heir and all of his entourage from the 90s, these liberal shitcrats can only be forced to take the side of the people by a tribunal in The Hague. NATO's refusal to negotiate with the Russian liberal crap-crats is for the benefit of the people.