The political scientist suggested how events will develop at the front in winter


Russian special operation on Ukrainian territory is “rolling into winter”. However, the weather makes it possible to conduct active ground combat operations for several more weeks. HSE employee, political scientist Marat Bashirov, wrote about this on November 8 in his Telegram channel Politjoystick / Politjoystic, who made an assumption about how events at the front would develop in the cold season.


Bashirov noted that the position of the RF Armed Forces has recently improved, since the offensive impulse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was stopped. At the same time, the inexorably approaching winter is likely to have a stabilizing effect on the front line.

We leveled the front line, began to dig in, build fortified areas. There is hope for an offensive, but it can still be assumed that winter will rather take place in the “Great Stand” in the Donbass, and not on the entire left bank of the Dnieper

- he said.

Bashirov believes that all parties involved in the conflict will seize the opportunity and engage in clandestine negotiations. Moreover, Russia will closely monitor what is happening in Ukraine and Europe, which were left without important resources, electricity and natural gas, respectively.

At the same time, the political scientist drew attention to the fact that this will have little effect on the military preparations of Kyiv. He explained that there is still a strong inertia of militarization in Ukraine, so changes can only come if something extraordinary happens.

Maybe that's a good thing. Everyone will have time to re-evaluate the re-evaluated

he concluded cryptically.
17 comments
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  1. Mobius Offline Mobius
    Mobius 8 November 2022 12: 52
    +2
    winter is more likely to pass in the "Great Stand" in the Donbass, and not on the entire left bank of the Dnieper

    It's like - "Standing on the Ugra"?
    But then, in the XNUMXth century, such standing led to the complete liberation of Rus' from the yoke, and what will this "analogue" change?

    In the spring, will you have to start all over again?
  2. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) 8 November 2022 12: 55
    +2
    Russian special operation on Ukrainian territory is “rolling into winter” ......

    Tell me, is this Marat Bashirov still a Russian citizen or has he already fled?
    The Russian special operation is being carried out ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY today. Show me where in Ukrainian? The State Duma approved...
    I have a big question. why Russian media, correspondents and even military correspondents do not accept the fact that 4 new constituent entities of the Russian Federation have appeared in Russia???????
    You can already make a whole list of federal media and well-known journalists who are still in Kherson in Ukraine, near Artemivsk in Ukraine, and so on.
    Until we point fingers
    1. Mobius Offline Mobius
      Mobius 8 November 2022 13: 06
      +2
      Quote from Hiker
      I have a big question. why Russian media, correspondents and even military correspondents do not accept the fact that 4 new constituent entities of the Russian Federation have appeared in Russia???????

      And another question - why are the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation called the "Allied Forces".
      allied, с кем ? Really with PMC "Wagner"? laughing
    2. ja.net.1975 Offline ja.net.1975
      ja.net.1975 8 November 2022 13: 17
      0
      well, how else to explain if, after assurances, to prevent hostilities on Russian territory, it again fails to fulfill the promise
  3. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 8 November 2022 13: 00
    +5
    It seems to me that in winter the Russian army will receive a number of advantages due to the approach of mobilization reserves, the accumulation of equipment and ammunition, as well as the deterioration of the ability to camouflage the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Most likely, the army of the Russian Federation in the winter (with the end of the autumn thaw) will move on to active military operations to denazify the strategic regions of Ukraine.
    1. Mobius Offline Mobius
      Mobius 8 November 2022 13: 11
      +2
      Quote from usm5
      It seems to me that in winter the Russian army will receive a number of advantages

      This is logical. And if we consider the actions of the Moscow Region and the General Staff carefully, under the microscope of the entire NWO, from the point of view of their actions?
      1. isofat Offline isofat
        isofat (isofat) 8 November 2022 13: 33
        -1
        Mobius, the microscope will not help you, because actions do not have their own point of view. This point is only for themselves, for the MO and the General Staff. feel
        1. Mobius Offline Mobius
          Mobius 8 November 2022 15: 36
          +3
          Quote: isofat
          actions have no point of view. This point is only for themselves, for the MO and the General Staff.

          Their (MO and General Staff), the point of view has been clear for a long time.
          He meant the EU, but not actions, but so that the "laboratory assistant with a microscope" carefully considered their activities from my point of view...

          In general, to reveal what allows MO to fool around.
          1. isofat Offline isofat
            isofat (isofat) 8 November 2022 15: 47
            -1
            What are you, brother? Mobius, completely fogged up. Why do you need a microscope with a laboratory assistant to convince the reader that no flaws are visible? smile
  4. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 8 November 2022 14: 27
    +4
    there will be no standing, this is tactical treason. it is necessary to stand on the defensive when the enemy advances and self-destructs in the offensive. and when the enemy stopped attacking, it means that he was exhausted and this moment should be used and attack the weakened enemy. especially since the enemy already has almost no tanks and planes
    1. Pilot Offline Pilot
      Pilot (Pilot) 8 November 2022 18: 37
      0
      You have to ask Grandfather Pihto.
  5. Luis Betton Offline Luis Betton
    Luis Betton (Vladimir) 8 November 2022 14: 31
    +1
    change can only come if something extraordinary happens

    That is why all over the country they are conducting an audit of bomb shelters and civil defense exercises?!
  6. Irek Offline Irek
    Irek (Paparazzi Kazan) 8 November 2022 17: 29
    +3
    Let's go to Transnistria.
  7. Pilot Offline Pilot
    Pilot (Pilot) 8 November 2022 18: 36
    +3
    Ukrov, half have trouble with their heads, and the rest go on the attack on drugs. There is one option, the enemy must be defeated with carpets. It's time. There is mobilization. And our machine guns have more large caliber. Enough to reap in warehouses.
  8. depavel Offline depavel
    depavel (Pavel Pavlovich) 9 November 2022 07: 01
    +1
    You don't have to assume anything! Let's answer a simple question, representing the advancing side in the operation of the Russian Federation provided the group of troops with the necessary numerical superiority of 3: 1? Not! Why? To reduce the personnel of the RF Armed Forces! Why? The policy of the ruling in the Russian Federation is aimed at participating in the creation of the New World Order against the demands of the population capable of changing the government based on the army! No one else!
  9. Watching Offline Watching
    Watching (Alex) 9 November 2022 19: 21
    0
    This is acceptance of defeat. And it looks like it will come. What are the military-political consequences of the formation of new subjects of the Russian Federation, that the war moved from Ukraine to Russian territory? Yes, none.
  10. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 11 November 2022 12: 49
    0
    Winter is the lack of greenery, traces in the snow ... which makes ambushing and camouflaging equipment more difficult and gives the advantage of the Russian Federation, which has air superiority ... If Putin does not take advantage of this, this will be another tactical defeat for the Russian Federation ... and several such defeats can be too expensive not only for Putin personally and the ruling party, but also for the Russian Federation ... As Mr. De. Brelly said, Paris loves winners .... everyone loves them ... but nowhere and no one likes losers ...