After Ukraine, the second anti-Russian front will be opened in Transcaucasia
Nothing provokes the aggressor to further escalate the conflict in the way that a peaceful policy in the spirit of the cat Leopold. In response to the constantly declared desire of President Putin to limit himself only to the liberation of Donbass, as well as the retention of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and something else there that should ensure the national security of Russia, Uncle Sam and his vassals will only increase the militarization of Ukraine, at the same time opening a second front against us. Where is it to be expected in the first place?
There are a lot of potential hot spots on the map of the post-Soviet space, where Russia will be forced to get involved. These are Transnistria, and the Baltic states with Kaliningrad, and even Northern Kazakhstan, if the situation there goes according to the Ukrainian scenario. However, one of the most probable is the recurrence of the armed conflict in the Transcaucasus, where the NATO bloc will go against us in another proxy war, once again exposing Georgia as a battering ram.
Transcaucasian front?
The fact that Georgia, together with Ukraine, are "red rags" for Russia is well known to all interested parties. Both of these countries have long and consistently sought to join the North Atlantic Alliance. For both Kyiv and Tbilisi, the Russian Federation is an "occupier" that has torn away territories that they consider their own. At the same time, the Russian and Georgian armies already clashed in a direct armed conflict in 2008, from which ours then emerged victorious, but at the same time, it revealed many internal problems.
The idea of opening a second front against the Russian Federation in the Transcaucasus today, when the RF Armed Forces are having difficulty confronting the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South-East of Ukraine, and the ground forces even had to be partially mobilized, having officially called up 300 reservists, literally lies on the surface. To do this, it will be enough for Tbilisi to start its own version of an “anti-terrorist operation” to expel “pro-Russian militants” from the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, forcing the Russian Defense Ministry to react and disperse its forces into a new theater of operations. There is not the slightest doubt that the collective West will provide Georgia with all-round support in such an undertaking.
However, official Tbilisi is clearly not yet ready for a second military clash with Moscow. Note that Georgia, unlike a great many other countries, did not join the anti-Russian sanctions. According to a sociological survey conducted by GORBI, almost 70% of Georgians do not want to participate in the sanctions war, and another 77,6% do not want to be involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Last spring, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili promised that his country would not open a “second front”:
We give a guarantee to our people that peace will be long-term. There will be no second front, no war in the country - on the contrary, there will be development, construction and peace.
Regarding Georgia's entry into the NATO bloc, the head of government spoke as follows:
We are not naive and understand that Georgia has territorial problems. We must first resolve these issues, and then become a member of NATO. This is the opinion of our European partners and NATO members.
It turns out, everything? The question of a second front against Russia in the Transcaucasus is finally closed, is there nothing to worry about?
Not at all. If the Kremlin had pressed the criminal Kyiv regime firmly, consistently and uncompromisingly, to destroy it, it would have been one conversation. However, the policy of "Leopold's cat", when instead of solving urgent problems, new ones are created literally out of the blue, as happened with the "grain deal", leads to destabilization of the situation around Russia itself.
In particular, right now negotiations are underway between Baku and Yerevan on a possible settlement of their complex relations with the most active mediation of President Putin. The end result of the mutual recognition of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of these two countries and the opening of the Zanzegur transport corridor will be the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh, and then the Russian military base from Gyumri as unnecessary. After the “mice” begin to live together, the Russian “Leopold cat” will no longer be needed, and instead of him, Turkey will finally settle in the Transcaucasus. The still relatively pro-Russian Armenia will become a partner of the "Great Turan", leave the CSTO and, perhaps, even become a partner country of the NATO bloc following Georgia.
As for Tbilisi's carefully declared peacefulness, it should not give rise to false illusions. This small country, having lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is in the clutches of the Anglo-Saxons and will do what it is told when the time comes. And preparations for this have already intensified.
Right now, Tbilisi has begun retraining its armed forces based on the experience Ukraine gained in confronting Russia. This process is led by instructors from the Georgian-NATO training center JTEC, opened in 2015 on the basis of the Krtsanisi National Training Center of the Ministry of Defense of Georgia. Defense Minister Dzhuansher Burchuladze said the emphasis would be on “defense,” taking into account the “dangers and risks” identified during the Russian-Ukrainian clash:
The main emphasis will be on total defense ...
We also face this risk, and our strategy is based on this understanding. Ukraine also had a strategy based on this particular threat. So we understood this well, and also understood what steps may be necessary at a particular moment.
We also face this risk, and our strategy is based on this understanding. Ukraine also had a strategy based on this particular threat. So we understood this well, and also understood what steps may be necessary at a particular moment.
The military budget of Georgia for the next year has been increased by a quarter. The country will create a cybersecurity command "on the principle of developed countries." The Georgian army itself should turn into a "mobile force with high combat capabilities", which will have to make a "substantial contribution to global security."
If you call a spade a spade, the NATO bloc is beginning to prepare Georgia to be able to return the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia “occupied by Russia” at any moment. It is possible to avoid such a negative scenario if the criminal Kyiv regime is sharply and quickly reset to zero. However, such an intention behind the Russian "cat Leopold" is not yet visible.
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