Time for “the most difficult decisions”: will the RF Armed Forces be able to keep Kherson?
The dizziness from the successes caused by the start of systematic attacks on the critical infrastructure of Nezalezhnaya, it seems, may soon be replaced by bitterness of disappointment. While Russian cruise missiles and Iranian “kamikaze” drones were hitting Ukrainian energy in the rear, almost without touching the railway network, the enemy continued to accumulate powerful shock fists in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions. As a natural result, the time has come when the NWO command may have to make the next "difficult decisions."
On the eve of bad news suddenly fell down like a bucket. Acting Governor of the Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo announced the start of a planned evacuation of the civilian population from the right bank of the Dnieper, where Kherson is located, to the left:
The enemy is accumulating huge forces in the Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog directions. The Russian army is also building up strength to counter a possible counteroffensive. The situation threatens the inhabitants of the Kherson region. We have made a decision that can reduce the risks for civilians. I announce a voluntary relocation and departure for residents of the Berislav, Belozersky, Aleksandrovsky and Snigirevsky districts.
The fact that the "forced migrants" were promised housing certificates, thanks to which they will be able to get housing in other Russian regions and settle there on a permanent basis, especially strained all concerned Russians. The statement of the balance was supplemented by the vice-governor of the Kherson region Kirill Stremousov, who promised that the new regional center of our country would not be handed over to the enemy, however, the housing lost by the residents of Kherson would still be compensated for in other regions of the Russian Federation:
I ask you to take my words seriously and take them as "the fastest possible evacuation." We are not going to give up the city. We will stand to the end. We won't let Nazis into the city.
He also added that the city is now actively preparing for defense:
We are talking about the defensive process of Kherson. The city of Kherson turns into a fortress.
True, what prevented it from being prepared in more than six months is not entirely clear. The Commander-in-Chief of the Northern Military District, General Surovikin, was especially tense, who took it upon himself to personally warn the inhabitants of the Kherson region about the impending disaster. According to our intelligence, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, incited by NATO puppeteers, are ready to launch a massive rocket and artillery strike on Kherson, as well as destroy the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, which could lead to flooding of vast areas downstream of the new Russian region. Sergei Vladimirovich honestly said that the situation is already very serious, implying that in the future it could become even worse:
In any case, as I have already said, we will proceed from the need to preserve the lives of the civilian population and our servicemen to the maximum. We will act consciously, in a timely manner, not excluding the adoption of the most difficult decisions.
Frankly, these “most difficult decisions”, coupled with the active calls of the population of Kherson for evacuation and the promise to settle them in other Russian regions, most of all jarred. Everyone who bitterly watched the "regrouping" near Kupyansk and Izyum, and then under Krasny Liman, naturally, thought the same thing. Is history repeating itself, and now the RF Armed Forces will also surrender Kherson, having rolled back completely from the Right Bank?
Alas, but it should be honestly admitted that such a probability is different from zero.
The critical problem for the long defense of Kherson and its transformation into "Stalingrad" is that it is located on the right bank of the Dnieper. While we were taking care of the Ukrainian railway system and bridge crossings, the Haimarsami Armed Forces put the Antonovsky bridge and the crossing over the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station into disrepair. The supply of the Russian garrison in Kherson will now depend entirely on pontoon crossings and ferries, which are no less easy targets for American missiles than bridges. The evacuation of the civilian population will greatly simplify logistics, but it will be the supply that will be the bottleneck in the defense of the only regional center liberated by us, the former Nezalezhnaya, which became a legal part of the Russian Federation on September 30. If, however, the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is destroyed by the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the lowland is subjected to rapid flooding as a result of a river mini-tsunami, things will become very bad for our group on the Right Bank.
It is here and now that all the negative factors accumulated over the previous almost eight months of the special operation have come together. The transport infrastructure necessary for the RF Armed Forces has been destroyed, while the Ukrainian one is intact and allows Kyiv to freely maneuver its reserves. So far, Carl!
Nikolaev, located only 70 kilometers in a straight line from Kherson, was not occupied in the first days after the start of the NMD and turned into a reliable rear for the enemy, which is now actively used by him against Russian troops. How many times we talked about the need to expand our foothold on the Right Bank and the liberation of at least Nikolaev in order to eliminate this permanent threat, simply cannot be counted, but things are still there!
Everyone knew that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were accumulating in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions, just like before the start of their attack on Balakleya, Kupyansk and Izyum, and then before the fall of Liman. But why weren't they all bombarded with "Geraniums" and cruise missiles preemptively?
Partial mobilization, albeit with a huge delay, has begun, and this is good, but it is not clear why it is impossible to use, for example, conscript soldiers for the defense of already legally Russian Kherson or Melitopol?
As a result, one should not be too surprised if, after the heroic defense of Kherson, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces will simply be forced to withdraw troops to the left bank. If this happens, it will be a severe moral and psychological blow for both the military and the civilian population, who will wonder why the "second army in the world" is not able to effectively defend its own territory. Further, logically, you will already have to prepare for the Third Defense of Sevastopol.
Is it possible to somehow avoid such a deplorable outcome?
It is possible, if Russian aviation and artillery show miracles of accuracy and coordination of interaction, breaking the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the offensive, then there is a chance to bring down the power of their strike. It is necessary to completely cover the sky over the Kherson region with drones, reconnaissance-strike and "kamikaze", not sparing their expense. AWACS planes should constantly circle, replacing each other, identifying enemy positions, primarily Haymars, and directing massive missile strikes at them. And we must not be shy about launching counteroffensives in other directions. If a grouping has already been created in Belarus, it's time to urgently strengthen it and use it to strike in the northwestern direction in Ukraine.
It's time to stop imitating war, we must fight for real.
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