"Scars on the body of the economy": Chinese economists have calculated the price of CBO for Russia


Russia faces a sharp and prolonged decline in its real income, according to a study by two Chinese scientists, as international sanctions over Russia's special military operation in Ukraine leave deep scars on its body. economics. Chinese economists are calculating the cost of the conflict and warning of irreversible consequences. Writes about this agency Bloomberg.


Severing trade ties and cutting off access to multinational manufacturing could cut real incomes by nearly 12% and lead to a "permanent decline in real gross domestic product" for Russia, say Xiai Du and Zi Wang of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. They published their arguments in the journal Economics Letters.

This loss of wealth is mainly due to the loss of access to foreign final goods and intermediate products.

Chinese experts said.

The study shows that real income could fall by almost 12% after the sanctions. The economy becomes isolated due to the rupture of trade and industrial ties. The Russian economy has adapted, but isolation will hurt.

While the Russian economy has adjusted and is likely to face a smaller recession than initially feared, the long-term damage remains more uncertain and harder to quantify.
Chinese economists found that Russia would suffer a smaller, but still substantial, wealth loss of nearly 10% if the sanctions only affected trade and left industrial ties intact. Their research model included 44 economic sectors and 34 industries.

As Chinese experts predict, the rupture of bilateral ties with the Russian Federation will hit not only the economy of Moscow, but also Western countries. According to the study, the economic pullback will spread beyond Russia, albeit slightly. The cessation of trade and production will reduce real income in Eastern European countries by 0,56%, and in Western Europe by 0,25%.
  • Photos used: pixabay.com
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  1. GIS Offline GIS
    GIS (Ildus) 19 October 2022 08: 48
    -2
    yes, it really will

    associated with loss of access to foreign final goods

    if we talk about high-quality Western samples, then yes. they will either not be available at all or it will be sooo expensive to buy them.
    and yes, there will be no raw materials, there will be no goods. so

    according to the study, the economic pullback will spread beyond Russia, albeit slightly.

    about slightly let's see in the end
  2. Alexey P. Offline Alexey P.
    Alexey P. (Alexey P.) 19 October 2022 08: 54
    +2
    EVERYONE will face the consequences, some more, some less, we will calculate later. Predicting numbers now is like pointing your finger at the sky
    1. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 19 October 2022 12: 33
      +7
      Quote: Alexey P.
      EVERYONE will face the consequences, some more, some less, we will calculate later. Predicting numbers now is like pointing your finger at the sky

      As one of my colleagues said - "Bullshit, we survived the 90s, and we will survive this war even more"
      I cannot assess and predict how it will be in other regions of ex-Ukraine included in or still planned to be included in the Russian Federation, but Donbass is ready to join the work of the all-Russian economy.
      Just give me the initial push.

      And everything we have, in Greater Russia, will be class good
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 19 October 2022 09: 05
    0
    Chinese "specialists" forgot to point out that China actually joined the sanctions. What will happen to the Chinese economy if Russia joins the sanctions against China? For example, because of the Taiwan crisis.
    When Western media write this, it's understandable. When they write Chinese, I want to say what they are.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 October 2022 09: 48
    -3
    The Chinese have put it mildly.
    Meat semi-finished products that 2 years ago cost 100 rubles in Peterka, six months ago 150 rubles, now 200 rubles.

    "loss of well-being" however
    1. isv000 Offline isv000
      isv000 22 October 2022 20: 32
      -1
      Have you tried buying meat for 200-250? And to make semi-finished products for taste and color, and not buy what they put us ...
  5. Denis Z Offline Denis Z
    Denis Z (Denis Z) 19 October 2022 11: 25
    -4
    These cross-eyed degenerates are ready to endure everything for the sake of trade. Taiwan will never be their land. And this is the right side of the story. We are waiting for the next group of senators like pelosi
  6. Luca Chrome Offline Luca Chrome
    Luca Chrome (Peter) 20 October 2022 02: 00
    +3
    Yes, as it were, inflation in the West is already 12-20%. What are "0,25"? Have the guys forgotten that the entire system of the West has been based in recent years on devouring the corpse of the USSR and the CMEA? I'm afraid that without free resources from Russia, it will not be sweet for everyone. Actually, all this Western provocation was designed for the new 90s in the end, in order to devour us again. But, something went wrong. The smallness of the white gentlemen miscalculated
  7. Alexander Ponamarev (Alexander Ponamarev) 20 October 2022 13: 59
    -1
    If you nationalize strategic resources, leave one state bank, leave small businesses to the private sector, lift the moratorium on the death penalty, try to revive the agrarians to the level of 1979, finance and support scientists in all sectors, then this is a moot point, of course, there will be demand for foreign products at first. ....... and finally ..... if ideological and motivated people come to power, then we'll see .... (I wrote something from the science fiction section) ..... but shjert pobieri, even with Stalin had millionaires and there were courts of honor, special programs were developed to enrich every citizen of the USSR, and if it were not for the war and the poisoning of the leader of the peoples, then who knows
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 20 October 2022 14: 13
      -1
      Quote: Alexander Ponamarev
      try to revive the agrarians to the level of 1979.

      maybe you don't need to?

      1978
      30 years after the abolition of cards, the country returns to the "normalized distribution of products" - in the provinces, the population is given coupons for butter and sausage

      There is no all-Union system - coupons of various types are issued by local authorities. But even at the regional level, one cannot speak about coupons publicly and write in newspapers: officially they do not exist. The initiative was shown almost simultaneously in several Ural and Volga regions. The coupons guarantee the purchase of the food minimum without a lot of shopping around and standing in lines (the problem of redeeming the coupons will arise later).

      Issue coupons at the place of residence. The usual norm is 500 g of sausage and 300 g of butter per person per month.

      in the RSFSR there were only 3 years in a row when 100+ million tons of grain were harvested, just 77-79.
      Then, apparently, it became more difficult with postscripts.

      now for the 7th year in a row 115+ million tons.

      147,5 million tons of bunker weight have been harvested so far, while harvesting is still ongoing

      https://www.zol.ru/n/37621

      And yes, the USSR bought 20+ million tons of grain a year from the sworn ones, now it will not be possible to revive this ...
    2. Essex62 Offline Essex62
      Essex62 (Alexander) 26 October 2022 09: 26
      0
      What kind of millionaires were in the temporary detention center? Like Koreiko, underground? Who told you this nonsense? And yet, personal enrichment, under socialism, is a taboo. This is its cornerstone, the basis of the equality of people. As a true Bolshevik, Stalin could not put up with such a phenomenon. Caught and to the wall. Yes, there was cooperative property, but not private and restrictions, on its owners, hung like fleas on a watchdog. In fact, it was included in the planned economy of the Union.
  8. dub0vitsky Offline dub0vitsky
    dub0vitsky (Victor) 20 October 2022 19: 16
    +1
    To calculate losses, it is necessary to take into account the profit from actions. Accession of new territories with the most developed industrial potential of Ukraine. Today, 8 million new citizens. If the forecasts of the Chinese look to the future, then it is necessary to look into the future from the point of view of income. The expansion of territories has not ended. China's takeover of Taiwan. Not the same situation? Stopping our neighbors economic losses?
  9. Fizik13 Offline Fizik13
    Fizik13 (Alexey) 21 October 2022 10: 32
    +1
    All and sundry wrote about the collapse of the Russian economy, now the Chinese have joined them.
  10. Bubla Offline Bubla
    Bubla (bubla) 21 October 2022 16: 15
    +1
    Let's wait and see, a country where everything has all the natural resources - it's not good to predict this
  11. ont65 Offline ont65
    ont65 (Oleg) 24 October 2022 06: 21
    0
    The economic downturn in all or separate positions has been going on for more than a year. Sanctions have been intensifying since 14, exacerbating the negative impact on the already extremely one-sidedly formed economy of 'goods for resources', revenues are not invested in development, but are accumulated by the Ministry of Finance for a rainy day, which naturally will inevitably come. Deferred income will be consumed, but what's next? - Where is the magic wand of the economy, since resources can no longer be sold, starting to save again? And there is none. In order for it to grow into a fruit-bearing tree, officials would have to feed too many roots, and they need money for something else, how to more efficiently pump income first to the West, now to the East.