Why Russia can not act in Ukraine as a "second number"

The beginning of partial mobilization in Russia and the actual restart of the SVO, which coincided with the appointment of a new commander of the special operation, Sergei Surovikin, gave hope to many Russians and adequate Ukrainians that the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Nezalezhnaya after the coup in 2014, would soon be completely and irrevocably burned out in his lair in Kyiv and Lvov. However, President Putin's recent statements have once again plunged him into some confusion, leaving ample room for interpretation.

Where is the logic?

Answering journalists' questions about the future fate of Ukraine following his visit to Astana, our Supreme Commander-in-Chief spoke as follows:

Will Ukraine exist? We did not set ourselves the task of destroying Ukraine, no, of course not.

President Putin sees the strategy chosen by the Kremlin for conducting a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine within the following logic:

So they took it at one time, 2,4 million people live in Crimea, they took it and cut off the water. The troops had to go in and open water in the Crimea. Here is just an example of the logic of our actions. If they had not done this action, there would have been no other counteractions ...
Here the bridge was blown up - now we need to think ten times: and ensuring communication with Crimea through the territory, how important is this for the Russian Federation?

That is, Vladimir Vladimirovich actually stated in plain text that Moscow's actions are only of a reciprocal, reflex nature and they are aimed at fighting not with the cause, but with the effect. Naturally, several questions arise.

The supply of fresh water to the Crimea was blocked by Ukraine in April 2014. Why then did the Kremlin wait 8 years for Kyiv to create a combat-ready army in order to enter and “open water in the Crimea”?

The supply of water to Donetsk, its environs and Mariupol was cut off by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in February 2022, immediately after the start of the Russian special operation. For almost 8 months, the capital of the DPR has been surviving without water. The question is how long it will take this time to give the order to reach at least the Dnieper and take control of the Dnieper-Donbass waterway canal, the strategic significance of which we will discuss in detail told previously?

We go further within the logic of Vladimir Putin. In response to the terrorist attack committed by the Ukrainian special services on the Crimean bridge, the Russian Defense Ministry began to launch missile and drone strikes on critical infrastructure facilities of the Nezalezhnaya, primarily energy. Action always gives rise to opposition, and Western sponsors decided to help the Kyiv regime in the formation of a powerful layered air defense / missile defense system.

This was told by the famous Ukrainian propagandist Alexei Arestovich:

A golden rain of arms has poured down on Ukraine over the past two days. We never dreamed of something like this...
The Pentagon has confirmed that it will build this system. The French President promised to supply air defense systems. Let me remind you that France has been talking about this for a long time, and now they are going to transfer eight NASAMS to us.

Obviously, all this is a matter of the near future, after which there should be a decrease in the effectiveness of the actions of Russian aviation and missile forces, as well as a complication of offensive operations of the RF Armed Forces. This is the objective reality.

It would seem that the recipe is obvious - it is necessary to bring the special operation to the end, which means the liquidation of Ukraine as a militarized Russophobic quasi-state, which is under the external control of the NATO bloc. However, it follows from the literal interpretation of President Putin's statement that such a goal is not set. What will the continued existence of the Kyiv regime naturally lead to?

Here we have to quote Arestovich again, who does not always carry a "blizzard":

For these two days I got tired of collecting a list of weapons. I advise you to pay attention to newsthat NATO and Ukraine have signed an agreement on the complete restructuring of our military industry, work will be carried out over the next ten years.

That is, both in Kyiv, and in Washington and London, they are sure that Ukraine will continue to exist as a state independent of Russia and will prepare for the continuation of the war with it. Indeed, they drew up a 10-year plan for "restoring the army and the defense industry of Ukraine." After the recent massive missile and drone strikes, the main focus is on closing the sky for us.

The foregoing allows us to draw a disappointing conclusion that, within the framework of the logic of reflex actions by the "second number", without eliminating the root cause of the problems, the armed conflict in Ukraine will only continuously expand and become more and more bloody. I would very much like to see a more systematic approach and strategic thinking when conducting a special military operation. It is still not too late to rebuild and liquidate the Ukrainian quasi-state with relatively little blood, although whole rivers have already been shed. Every day the price of the issue will only increase, and for both sides.

In the end, you will still have to reset the Kyiv regime, but you really don’t want to fight really to the last Ukrainian and the penultimate Russian.
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  1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
    soloist2424 (Oleg) 18 October 2022 17: 37
    Everything is gone, the client is leaving! Gypsum removed! - Marzhetsky.
    1. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 18 October 2022 18: 28
      Why Russia can not act in Ukraine as a "second number"

      "number two"- after whom? VFU?
      Also say that they should be considered a worthy adversary, comparable in capabilities and resources to the Russian Armed Forces ...

      And don't mention NATO... Tired yes .
      Message -"We are at war with NATO", set the teeth on edge ....

      It is clear that the conflict is more than serious, but NATO, for real, has not yet come to this war ...
      NATO is at war yes , but this proxy war.
    2. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 18 October 2022 19: 03
      it is necessary to bring the special operation to an end, which means the liquidation of Ukraine as a militarized Russophobic quasi-state, which is under the external control of the NATO bloc. However, it follows from the literal interpretation of President Putin's statement that such a goal is not set.

      I can’t unequivocally state that the GDP does not set (abandoned it) the previously defined task of liquidating the state of Ukraine as “Anti Russia”, but this process has clearly slowed down ...
      1. Nelton Online Nelton
        Nelton (Oleg) 19 October 2022 15: 38
        We started with the first number - obviously from the premise that they would meet more or less loyally.
        (Anyone who followed the events of 2014-2015 at least a little should understand that they will not be greeted with bread and salt).
        and when it turned out to be completely different, there are simply no clear goals.

        If we are at war with the United States, then what does Ukraine have to do with it, it does not affect the alignment with the United States.
        (but the Salekhard-Labytnani bridge and the revival of the BRZhDK would have an effect).
        We lose funds and disclose performance characteristics, and the United States does not risk anything.
        At the same time, under this case, 1000+ km of the border with Finland became the border with NATO.

        If release the Ukrainian people from the Nazis - it doesn’t hurt, they want it, then they would be released.
        And the more rockets arrive at the thermal power plant, the less they are waiting for us there.

        If capture territory - then the cost of capturing orders of magnitude exceeds any benefits.
        Well, it's hard to inspire people with such goals ...

        If we try to stop the shelling of Donetsk, then the results are negative.
        From Kherson, here are 60 thousand quickly taken out, in 8 years from Donetsk it was possible to take out everyone from 20 km of the front-line zone.

        well, and like a cherry on the cake - the Russian Federation simply does not pull a war with elements of the NATO infrastructure + motivated l / s with non-nuclear means.
        The chance was to do everything quickly, like in 1968, 8.8.8, or in the spring of 2014.
        The chance is gone.

        It remains to evacuate the population of Kherson ...
  2. Nicu Offline Nicu
    Nicu (Nicu) 18 October 2022 22: 07
    I think that the current war in Ukraine is beneficial to Russia, it is known that NATO is indirectly involved in the conflict, but the ball is on the side of Russia, because it is as if someone wants to confront you and that someone sends a friend to beat you in your yard obviously at home you have more chances to win the fight.
    Honestly ... neither Russia nor NATO are ready to fight each other in the truest sense of the word!
  3. Otto Davar Offline Otto Davar
    Otto Davar (Otto Davar) 18 October 2022 22: 24
    If you carefully look at VV's career, it becomes obvious that he is the main liberal in accordance with current Western practice.
  4. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 19 October 2022 09: 21
    The attacker has 100 paths ... And there is absolutely nothing to defend ... The current state of shelling and seizure of our people and lands is a special medicine for starting a normal war, without flirting with NATO ...
  5. sap Offline sap
    sap (Alex) 19 October 2022 22: 15
    Putin can reset only the terms of his reign, otherwise he has long been retired.
  6. bonifacius Offline bonifacius
    bonifacius (Alex) 19 October 2022 22: 31
    I try not to read this "writer". His opuses are Kanoshenko with a "-" sign.