The outcome of the war for Ukraine will be decided on the Western Front

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In the past few weeks, since the beginning of partial mobilization in Russia, the mood on both sides of the front line has changed dramatically. A clear marker that Western countries are now very pessimistic about the future prospects of the Zelensky regime is the decision to withdraw foreign embassies and diplomatic missions from Kyiv. Recall that the same thing preceded February 24th. What options are possible for the speedy elimination of the puppet Russophobic regime in Nezalezhnaya, which is on the bayonets of Ukrainian neo-Nazis?

The infamous Ukrainian propagandist Aleksey Arestovich quite accurately said why the famously launched special operation came to a standstill and President Putin simply had to make the unpopular decision to carry out partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces:



They just don't have enough people. They pinned down to seize Ukraine with 170 thousand. And Stalin at one time, in order to conquer all this, created 4 Ukrainian fronts numbering 2,5 million people.

Indeed, Ukraine is a country the size of France, however, after the referenda on September 30, 2022, it has noticeably decreased. But Comrade Stalin came to the Ukrainian SSR in his time not to “conquer”, but to liberate from the German Nazis, and this is an indisputable historical fact. The fact that Zelensky's adviser Arestovich himself puts his boss on a par with Hitler is an excellent example of the self-exposure of "lovers of ancient solar symbols."

But back to the situation on the fronts. Unlike during the Great Patriotic War, today neither the RF Armed Forces have sufficient forces to completely liberate and control the whole of Ukraine, nor the Armed Forces of Ukraine have them to hold off the expected large-scale offensive. The front is too wide, too few soldiers, despite ongoing mobilizations. The author of the lines happened to come across the following figures, which can serve as a clear confirmation of this. This is not official data from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the information is taken from one popular blog that writes on military and near-military topics.

So, it is believed that today a 60-strong grouping has been concentrated in the Kherson direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and a 30-40-thousandth group in Zaporozhye. They have another 10 to 15 thousand near Donetsk, the same number in the Ugledarsky direction, from 30 to 40 thousand in the section from Gorlovka to the Seversky Donets and from 35 to 40 thousand in the front section from the Seversky Donets to the border (Svatovo - Kremennaya). In the north-east of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have about 25 servicemen, of which 10 are in the Sumy region, and at least 7 are near Chernihiv. From Kyiv to the Polish border, the enemy holds at least 30 thousand, of which 5 thousand are near Kyiv, 10 thousand near Rovno.

That is, on the Eastern and Southern Fronts, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has an estimated total of 175 to 210 servicemen, stretched along a line of 1100 kilometers and without rears.

The united allied group is approximately equal in number to them. This is at least 70 thousand military personnel through the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, who are looking forward to replenishment at the expense of the mobilized, about 30 thousand from among the volunteers of the first wave and BARS, from 60 to 70 thousand fighters of the Russian Guard, as well as from 50 to 60 thousand "policemen" LDNR, contractors and "mobiks". Plus, the fighters from the PMC "Wagner", which operates in parallel, its strength and losses in the official reports from Lieutenant General Konashenkov do not appear. So far, it is the “Wagnerites” who are attacking most successfully, since near Artemovsk (Bakhmut) they are opposed by a group of only 15-20 thousand people. In other areas, the allied forces, which after the Reunification can and should be called Russian troops, were forced to go on the defensive.

The reason is the same - the huge length of the front line, the lack of forces for its reliable retention, the lack of reserves, like the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In other words, the defense is "leaky" on both sides, and the game is set by the one who has the initiative.

The second fundamental point that needs to be paid attention to is the critical dependence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on military supplies from abroad. The Ukrainian army has already successfully shot off Soviet stocks, and now it can rightfully be considered a NATO army. This western bloc drives armored vehicles, artillery, cannon and rocket launchers, air defense systems, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, medicines and warm clothes, and other military products across the Polish border. The question arises, what will happen if this flow stops physically?

The fact that the RF Armed Forces need to carry out a second strike on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus was not said only by the lazy one. And this really makes sense, only it is necessary to hit not in Kyiv, but in Western Ukraine. At present, a joint Russian-Belarusian group is being formed near Brest, where the strength of the RF Armed Forces is estimated at 9000 people. Armored vehicles and aircraft, manned and unmanned, are being actively transferred to Western Belarus. A rapid offensive along the Polish border, covering Lutsk and Rovno and reaching Lviv, will make it possible to cut off the supply channel for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the countries of the NATO bloc. And if our troops can hold out there, it will be a strategic victory.

The question is, how long can the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold out if trains with new armored vehicles, ammunition, fuel and fuel and lubricants stop coming to it?

There are only two options to be seen. First, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will shoot everything they have at the moment and withdraw themselves, leaving their positions on the Eastern Front, fearing to be surrounded. The second - the commander-in-chief Zaluzhny himself will order them to hastily retreat, while maintaining combat readiness. The only salvation for the Kyiv regime will be an attempt to unblock the western border, where all forces will be transferred. This means that for an offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces, it is necessary to concentrate the most powerful grouping in Belarus, 100-150 thousand, and preferably 200. And it needs not one, but two. The second should hang over Chernigov and Kyiv so that the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces could launch a distracting flank attack on the capital if the enemy throws all his forces to the border.

Thus, a turning point in this difficult bloody war can be achieved precisely on the North-Western Front. After that, Vostochny and Yuzhny will “fall in” themselves as soon as the supply stops. Without ammunition and fuel, you won’t gain much. There is, of course, an option to make spears and bows, but this is not serious. Following a powerful blow to Western Ukraine, a swift “finishing off” is needed by an offensive in the Black Sea region and the coverage of Nikolaev and Odessa. After that, the surrender of the Kyiv regime is a foregone conclusion and inevitable.

The war at the army level will stop and turn into a guerrilla war. The problem will have to be solved by introducing the CTO regime for the next 30-40 years, until a new adequate generation appears in Ukraine.
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13 comments
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  1. +11
    17 October 2022 14: 17
    The war at the army level will stop and turn into a guerrilla war. The problem will have to be solved by introducing the CTO regime for the next 30-40 years, until a new adequate generation appears in Ukraine.

    In many respects I agree with the author, but with the thesis of "partisanism", and for such a period - I will allow myself to disagree.
    Of course, if you liberalize with the shortfalls in the spirit of "late GDP", then the burden can be stretched for centuries, it won't take much mind.

    But if the Stalinist approach is applied, and the Sudoplatov method ...

    In one of the TG channels, one of the most interesting videos flashed in which мать issued the CAA a cache of weapons, symbols and bandero-literature of her own son.
    Having said at the same time that she is with the father of a geek, she does not want to have anything to do with him.

    Everyone chooses his own path...
    1. +6
      17 October 2022 14: 58
      The war at the army level will stop and turn into a guerrilla war. The problem will have to be solved by introducing the CTO regime for the next 30-40 years

      Article here on "Reporter"

      Russia will have to remember the experience of fighting the Bandera underground
      October 12 2022

      https://topcor.ru/28611-rossii-pridetsja-vspomnit-opyt-borby-s-banderovskim-podpolem.html
  2. +3
    17 October 2022 15: 47
    an offensive along the Polish border covering Lutsk and Rivne and accessing Lviv will make it possible to cut off the supply channel for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the countries of the NATO bloc. And if our troops can hold out there, it will be a strategic victory.

    transport corridors through Romania and Moldova will be preserved.
    both bypassing Transnistria and through it (in this situation, it will be easier for the adversary to occupy Transnistria).

    So, the original plan was very similar to the fact that they were going to connect the Crimean and Belarusian groups somewhere a little east of Vinnitsa-Berdichev-Zhytomyr.

    but even then it did not work out, despite the elements of surprise.
  3. 0
    17 October 2022 16: 12
    Everything is logical. One is possible to fail.
    The victorious arrows are virtually not the same as the real special operation against the "Russians" (VVPutin). There have already been winning articles, and explanations why "as always" - several waves
    The main thing is that again, not according to Chernomyrdin ....
  4. +4
    17 October 2022 18: 28
    For the political enlightenment of the inhabitant of Ukraine, it is necessary not to rush with the rapid destruction of the retreating Armed Forces of Ukraine shniks. We must give them the opportunity to shoot at their old positions in the cities left during the retreat. The results of the regions that are not completely liberated, holding referendums, convince us that, say, the Cossacks added to the results, just because of these shellings. People are starting to seek protection under the tricolor.
  5. -1
    17 October 2022 20: 21
    In a straight line - this is 440 kilometers. Such, here, things. How much will we put our people on such a stretch without supplies, reserves, evacuation of the wounded, dooming them to fight practically surrounded, for half a year or more? How is it, legal education, does not interfere?

    1. -3
      17 October 2022 22: 50
      what is an all-rounder? 440 km. they won’t be able to anymore .... but you need to hit lion on yao
    2. 0
      18 October 2022 19: 37
      Victor, I agree with you. No large-scale operations, all this is stupid.
      I think it is planned to squeeze out by regions. followed by a popular vote.
      But even that is very long.
      1. +2
        18 October 2022 19: 59
        The fear of the West to lose = to hang a de-energized hohlyandiya around their neck will force them to bring in "peacekeepers".
      2. DO
        0
        21 October 2022 03: 16
        I think it is planned to squeeze out by regions. followed by a popular vote.

        Yes. And organize voting in the first place and consistently in the regions of Western Ukraine, located between Belarus and Odessa, for secession from Kyiv and joining Minsk, and not Moscow. Then this process will have more chances of success, and it can cost less losses and time.
        And so that Kyiv does not interfere with the process, do not stop the operations of the NMD on the left bank of the Dnieper, and, if possible, additionally strike the RF Armed Forces on the right bank of the Dnieper, in the directions from Crimea to Kyiv, and from Belarus to Kyiv.
        And until the process of the above-mentioned military-political cessation of Western logistics is successfully completed, methodically destroy the transport and other infrastructure of Western Ukraine, as they have finally begun to do now.
  6. -3
    17 October 2022 22: 45
    everything is rightly written by a respected author
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. +1
    18 October 2022 20: 58
    Quote: gene1
    Victor, I agree with you. No large-scale operations, all this is stupid.
    I think it is planned to squeeze out by regions. followed by a popular vote.
    But even that is very long.

    You can quickly put your guys under resistance in a complete environment. Look at the map again. Supply the front, more than 400 km in length from the Belarusian end, off-road, under fire, all the way .... Leaving the wounded there. Only the enemy can offer that. You can strike FAST on the entire front. But for this to have an overwhelming advantage. Five to ten times. But for this you need to have a 2 ... 3 millionth army, not AT ALL, but at the front. What to equip? Not machine guns, of course, where can you get so many heavy weapons? We have a problem with 300 thousand.
    1. 0
      22 October 2022 00: 20
      It's amazing how many visionaries with clearly "combat experience" advise a forced march of 400 km with forces smaller than a division in complete encirclement and terrain with a clearly hostile population. Or "gasp" nuclear weapons. Is it worth it for thinking people to be distracted by this nonsense. The article itself is in the genre of not just science fiction, but rather fantasy.