Transcaucasian castling: what is behind the growth of Turkish influence in the region


A very interesting situation is developing around the Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions. On the one hand, the recent escalation of the conflict actually put an end to the CSTO, which refused to take the side of Yerevan. All over the world, this fact was regarded as Russia's recognition of its inability to control the Transcaucasus, and the American political landing in the face of the "fighting old woman" Pelosi.


It must be said that the Americans managed to dampen the conflict by purely “diplomatic” methods: shouts from Washington brought down the arrogance of both Aliyev, who stopped his troops, and Erdogan, the “godfather” of the Azerbaijanis. Pashinyan ran to Brussels in search of closer cooperation with the EU and NATO, and the alliance itself showed its willingness to dig in Armenia.

But then something went "wrong" - wrong for the "white masters". After meeting with Macron and the President of the European Council (a kind of "politburo" of the EU) Michel on the sidelines of the informal EU summit in Prague on October 6, Pashinyan talked face-to-face with Erdogan there. Strange as it may seem, this dialogue and the subsequent trilateral conversation with the participation of Aliyev also turned out to be productive and gave a timid hope for a compromise settlement of the conflict.

I will help! I will be in command!


Moreover, there have been shifts on the issue of the so-called Zangezur corridor - a potential railway artery from Azerbaijan to Turkey through Armenia. The project promises a significant improvement in the transport provision of the region, the growth of cargo flows, which are now forced to go in a roundabout way - in a word, a solid benefit, and not only for the Turkish-Azerbaijani, but also for the Armenian side.

Previously, the main problem of this topic was that on the ground the “corridor” passed through the disputed territory of the Nagorno-Krabakh Republic, which, of course, impeded the implementation of the project. Actually, in the Soviet period there was already a railway line between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but after the collapse of the USSR, it was dismantled, as against the backdrop of a conflict between the two countries.

The severity of this loss was so obvious that the search for ways to "bring it all back" began almost immediately, and with the close interest of Turkey, which is very interested in establishing a direct physical connection with the "little brother". Even the option of dismantling the NKR and exchanging territories on a demographic basis was considered: Yerevan was supposed to receive the northern part of Karabakh, populated mainly by Armenians, and Baku - the southern part and access to the desired Zangezur corridor. However, this rather good (at least at first glance) option was not implemented.

The “corridor issue” was also raised based on the results of the hostilities in 2020. In general, “breaking through” a direct path between “mainland” Azerbaijan and the exclave (Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic), separated by the Armenian and Karabakh territories, was the most important goal of the campaign set by the Azerbaijani leadership is in front of them - and partially achieved what they wanted. The territory of the southern part of the NKR, and the status of the Zangezur corridor was settled in the truce signed on November 9, 2020, but de jure it was only about organizing communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, and not about free Turkish-Azerbaijani transit through Armenian territory. Pashinyan's persistence in upholding just such a status of a "corridor" has become one of the reasons for a new aggravation of the conflict this year.

And here Erdogan bursts into the situation as an intermediary. Although it is not known what exactly he promised Pashinyan, but during the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, held in Astana on October 12-13, it was announced that Yerevan and Baku plan to sign a new peace treaty by the end of the year. At the same time, Erdogan himself stated that the issue with the Zangezur corridor was practically resolved. Whether this means assigning him some kind of special regime, or even an exchange of territories according to the scenario described above, we will soon see.

Whatever option is realized, it will meet strong resistance, primarily within Armenia, where a huge proportion of the population considers Pashinyan a traitor, and his entire policy towards Azerbaijan is one continuous “drain” (and not without reason). But even more possible pacification in the region, and even under the auspices of Turkey, is dissatisfied in the West: Washington needs a continuously smoldering conflict that can be fanned and muffled as needed.

As soon as there were some signs of a possible rapprochement of the parties, provocations began, and not only in the form of classic "self-attacks" in the border area, but also much more dirty ones. On October 2, a video of the execution of Armenian prisoners by Azerbaijanis was published, apparently designed to raise a new wave of protests in Yerevan against the truce and against Pashinyan personally. And although the provocation had some effect, it was not possible to disrupt the negotiation process.

Then, on the night of October 11, right in Washington (!!!) a car belonging to the Azerbaijani embassy was shot; no casualties or injuries were reported, and responsibility was immediately placed on the local Armenian diaspora, as in recent cases of acts of vandalism against Azerbaijani diplomatic missions in other countries. On October 14, in the conflict zone, an Armenian car was blown up by a mine, either with military or civilians on board.

Also on October 12, the European Commission invented a kind of “observation mission”, which was supposed to go to the border regions of Azerbaijan. And in Paris, there was a real hysteria: on October 14, the city council demanded that the government impose sanctions against Baku, and Macron accused Russia of inciting the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. However, this did not result in any new practical consequences, and the Brussels "observers" were simply not allowed into Azerbaijan.

Multi vector sultan riding a pipe


Frankly speaking, it is surprising to me how methodically and consistently the West itself turns the Turkish elite against itself. Against the backdrop of the “frictions” that arose at the beginning of the summer with the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, I believed that Erdogan would receive satisfaction at least part of his claims and, in general, would be “strongly embraced” by the alliance and the EU - but instead, he was downright pushed into the arms of Russia and the SCO. Moreover, part of the Western demarches is directed against Erdogan personally. So, on October 5, a comedian of Kurdish origin appeared on Swedish television, in the Kurdish language, he used insulting jokes about the Sultan and his country.

In the context of the fight against Russia, such extremely witty moves are perceived only as “shooting yourself in the legs” ... But if we start from the introductory statement that the main goal of Washington is to “drain” Europe and indirectly weaken Russia through this, then everything falls into place and quite fits into the general logic of the work of American puppets in European governments.

The more interesting then to look at strengthening "gas friendship" Turkey with Russia. This is perceived by many as a "drain" already with us, moreover, as another "drain" - immediately after the concession to the Sultan of Transcaucasia. But what if this is a lead to the "drain" of Turkey itself, along with the rest of Europe, and not without the help of the latter?

The destruction of the Nord Streams showed the fragility of such (generally beneficial) communications through neutral waters to sudden attacks, and the Turkish Stream is clearly no more, if not less, reliable in this regard. At the same time, it is now the main hope of the Balkan countries to survive the coming winter with at least some kind of heat supply. The Balkans (and especially Hungary), in turn, are also a zone of Turkey's interests, like the Transcaucasus. In September, Erdogan made an almost week-long trip around the region, even visiting Serbia on business, which the language would not dare to call “part of the Turkic world.”

The strengthening of Russian-Turkish energy cooperation will cause even greater bitterness against the "too many-vector" sultan in the West, and will shift a substantial part of the responsibility for the well-being of the Balkan satellites onto him. And this is not a joke, given that anything can and should be expected from the "extreme West", up to another attempt to undermine the Turkish Stream - Putin understands this, Erdogan himself understands this. The hypothetical loss of the gas transportation artery would seriously undermine many of the latter's plans for "Ottoman" expansion, so it is in his interest to maintain truly good neighborly relations with Russia, even to the detriment of the "Western vector".

So, in a sense, we can talk about Turkey's "import substitution" of the Anglo-American influence in the Transcaucasus, which is taking place not without the participation of Russia. Of course, this situation cannot be called optimal, but against the backdrop of the loss of Russian influence itself, the Turks are definitely the lesser of two evils in the near future.
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  1. Corsair Offline Corsair
    Corsair (DNR) 16 October 2022 11: 57
    +8
    Transcaucasian castling: what is behind the growth of Turkish influence in the region

    You don't need to be "about seven spans in your forehead" to understand that these are the consequences of Russia's weakness in general, and its foreign policy outline in particular ...
  2. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 16 October 2022 13: 33
    +1
    And here Erdogan bursts into the situation as an intermediary. Although it is not known what exactly he promised Pashinyan, but during the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, held in Astana on October 12-13, it was announced that Yerevan and Baku plan to sign a new peace treaty by the end of the year

    This is not surprising given the not too significant role of Russia and the growing influence of Turkey and the EU...
  3. Opozdavshiy Offline Opozdavshiy
    Opozdavshiy (Sergei) 16 October 2022 14: 32
    +2
    The management of these Caucasian regions (Armenia-Karabakh-Azerbaijan) has always been problematic. Elements of psychopathy in the position of Armenians, as well as the desire to sell out to the highest bidder among Azerbaijanis, are historically irremovable phenomena. I draw your attention to the fact that this intra-Caucasian region does not have any serious resources. The oil of Azerbaijan is about something else. The only externally demanded resource is the node location. Hence the historical arrogance of the entire kaleidoscope of national formations in the region. The local population is used to the fact that everyone is fighting for them. For them, this is a way of profitable life. That is why conflicts are inescapable there - the small-town elites need them simply in order to remain elites, even if they are small-town ones.
    Erdogan's hopes for the stability of this region as part of the "Turkic world" are as ridiculous as any other hopes for the sanity of the local population.
    As for Russia, which is already thoroughly fed up with the progressive Armenian idiocy, it held a quite competent middle game in Africa, from where France is bulging out at a terrible speed. And Macron, for the complete happiness of the French, will still hang Armenians on himself.
    Macron was naturally offended by the African pranks of Russia, and naturally (this is Macron) decided to spoil Russia in its Caucasian underbelly - in Armenia. Fit in. As a result, the Armenians left Pashinyan and want to leave the CSTO.
    Yes, for God's sake. SCO on a global approach.
    But what next?
    But nothing. No one will touch the base in Gyumri, including the supply - it's more expensive for yourself.
    And so France will now take upon itself the maintenance and protection of impoverished Armenia.
    And in a year, in addition to all the joys of European existence, Macron will have the opportunity to support Armenia and systematically bark with Turkey. This bodyaga will drag on for the life of the current generations of local politicians, i.e. for 10 or 20 years.
    1. Romanovski Offline Romanovski
      Romanovski (Roman) 16 October 2022 21: 48
      +1
      You are deeply mistaken ... And it’s better to take care of your chicken coop
  4. sat2004 Offline sat2004
    sat2004 16 October 2022 14: 45
    +1
    Georgia has calmed down, understood what Europe, European values ​​are, Ukraine has put all the dots. Azerbaijan is divided into two parts, Artsakh, thanks to Russian peacekeepers, and Turkish, under the control of Erdogan. The republic artificially created by Lenin collapsed. Pashinyan's Armenia, trying to show its viability, dangles like ..., it could not be otherwise, a half-educated historian, hence the corresponding attitude to the history of Artsakh, Armenia. Complete disregard for historical facts, since Iran and Russia stand guard over the interests of Armenia, completely blocking Turkish influence. It is not clear the purpose of "and the Zangyazur corridor", having adopted a declaration of independence, Azerbaijan handed over Nakhichevan and Artsakh to Russia, and now it has nothing to do with either Nakhichevan or Artsakh.
  5. Benjamin Offline Benjamin
    Benjamin (Benjamin) 16 October 2022 15: 26
    0
    CSTO became zero, they began to scatter, and the weight of Turkey became the main one, the result of the NWO
  6. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 16 October 2022 16: 16
    +2
    Armenians stepped on the rake of Ukraine - Georgia and chose the puppet of the West in the person of Pashinyan, hoping that the West would give them not only lace panties, but also large benefits to everyone, printing tens of billions of euro-bucks for them)) apparently poverty and the collapse of the economy of already pro-Western Ukraine - they don’t see Georgia point-blank, and how can they see if most of them (2-3 million) have long been dumped in the Russian Federation for permanent residence, like the numerous millions of Aliev’s “sons”, Georgians, Asians.
    with the permission of the Tsar, the processes of actual resettlement of people from the CIS to the Russian Federation are taking place.
    moreover, from those republics that were the first (already in the late 80s and early 90s) to drive Russians to the cries of "Russ, go to your own Russia." And to whom do they liberate their "square" territories? ... that's right, they hand them over to the enemies of the Russian Federation, that is, the West and the Turks (the governors of England in Central Asia). naturally, this cannot be tolerated, if these people want to live in the Russian Federation, recognizing that the anti-Russian regimes have made life unbearable in their camps, then it is necessary to form Liberation Armies from these people, and send them back from the Russian Federation to their republics, let them free them from the West and Turkish influence. and if they don’t want to, let them blame them for permanent residence in other countries.
  7. Norma51 Offline Norma51
    Norma51 (Nick) 16 October 2022 16: 43
    +3
    Azerbaijan left the CSTO in 1999. And in 2012, he drove Russia out of Gabala with our radar. The BBC then called it "a slap in the face to Putin." Aliyev, playing friendship with Putin, is squeezing Russia out of Transcaucasia in every possible way and dragging Turkey into it. However, Putin himself is happy to help his friend Erdogan strengthen his country. We are building a huge nuclear power plant for him for free, selling gas for a pittance so that he helps Zelensky with weapons, and also implements a policy of turanism.
  8. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 16 October 2022 17: 00
    +3
    Yes, just another offshore company is being made from Turkey for "our" big businessmen, but simply oligarchs. Hence the influence grows. Turkey itself is on two chairs like these oligarchs. It will end with the Turks as with crests.
  9. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 16 October 2022 17: 13
    +4
    Quote: 1_2
    Armenians stepped on the rake of Ukraine - Georgia and chose the puppet of the West in the person of Pashinyan, hoping that the West would give them not only lace panties, but also large benefits to everyone, printing tens of billions of euro-bucks for them)) apparently poverty and the collapse of the economy of already pro-Western Ukraine - they don’t see Georgia point-blank, and how can they see if most of them (2-3 million) have long been dumped in the Russian Federation for permanent residence, like the numerous millions of Aliev’s “sons”, Georgians, Asians.
    with the permission of the Tsar, the processes of actual resettlement of people from the CIS to the Russian Federation are taking place.
    moreover, from those republics that were the first (already in the late 80s and early 90s) to drive Russians to the cries of "Russ, go to your own Russia." And to whom do they liberate their "square" territories? ... that's right, they hand them over to the enemies of the Russian Federation, that is, the West and the Turks (the governors of England in Central Asia). naturally, this cannot be tolerated, if these people want to live in the Russian Federation, recognizing that the anti-Russian regimes have made life unbearable in their camps, then it is necessary to form Liberation Armies from these people, and send them back from the Russian Federation to their republics, let them free them from the West and Turkish influence. and if they don’t want to, let them blame them for permanent residence in other countries.

    That is exactly what it is, Russians were forcibly driven into Russia, taking away property and lives, while they themselves are now trying to flood our country. Because it is easy to get a Russian passport after working for a year at a construction site, and then as a courier in a Moscow company. Here you have good health care, which is not available in other regions, and prospects for study and career, etc.

    All liberals from the FSU countries dream of the collapse of Russia and the acquisition of a piece for themselves. The Asians have this Turan, the Armenians have the same pieces. Moreover, these minorities from the FSU countries treat Russians as a minority that can and should be oppressed.
    1. Romanovski Offline Romanovski
      Romanovski (Roman) 16 October 2022 21: 58
      -2
      All liberals from the FSU countries dream of the collapse of Russia and the acquisition of a piece for themselves. The Asians have this Turan, the Armenians have the same pieces. Moreover, these minorities from the FSU countries treat Russians as a minority that can and should be oppressed.

      Sir - believe me that you are very rude and slyly mistaken ... Calm down and land on this sinful earth ... And also take off and throw away your rose-colored glasses.
    2. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
      Pat Rick 18 October 2022 08: 53
      0
      Because it is easy to get a Russian passport after working for a year at a construction site, and then as a courier in a Moscow company. Here you have good health care, which is not available in other regions, and prospects for study and career, etc.
      All liberals from the FSU countries dream of the collapse of Russia and the acquisition of a piece for themselves. The Asians have this Turan, the Armenians have the same pieces. Moreover, these minorities from the FSU countries treat Russians as a minority that can and should be oppressed.

      1) It is really easy to get a Russian passport. But at the same time, one must take into account that it does not give much - you just get on the same step as the locals.
      2) I would be lying a lot, arguing that there is good healthcare in the Russian Federation (I do not mean the Central Clinical Hospital with a clinic under the manager of the President of the Russian Federation).
      3) I will simply keep silent about the prospects for work and career.
      4) It's time to get used to the fact that the USSR became the FSU, and the Russians became national minorities in the national republics, and nothing can really be done about it.
  10. svit55 Offline svit55
    svit55 (Sergey Valentinovich) 16 October 2022 21: 34
    +3
    The strange friendship between GDP and Erdogan, if not to say something worse, the free construction of a nuclear power plant, now the creation of a huge gas distributor, and this despite the fact that the Turks are everywhere against us. What is it for? Or is Turkey a "cottage" for our oligarchs to sit out the hard times?
  11. Romanovski Offline Romanovski
    Romanovski (Roman) 16 October 2022 21: 51
    -1
    Quote: 1_2
    Armenians stepped on the rake of Ukraine - Georgia and chose the puppet of the West in the person of Pashinyan, hoping that the West would give them not only lace panties

    Wrong ... Very rude ....
  12. Romanovski Offline Romanovski
    Romanovski (Roman) 16 October 2022 22: 02
    -1
    Israel urged to help Ukraine amid rumors of Iran supplying weapons to Russia

    Israel should begin to provide military assistance to Ukraine after information appeared in the media about Iran's alleged supply of ballistic missiles to Russia. This was stated on October 16 by Israeli Minister for Diaspora Affairs Nachman Shai. “There is no longer any doubt about what position Israel should take in this bloody conflict. The time has come to supply military assistance to Ukraine, as the United States and NATO countries do,” the politician said on his official Twitter page.

    https://topcor.ru/28686-zakavkazskaja-rokirovka-chto-stoit-za-rostom-tureckogo-vlijanija-v-regione.html

    Since the beginning of the special operation of the Russian Federation to protect Donbass, Israel has been supplying Kyiv with only humanitarian aid and limited supplies of protective equipment for employees of civil emergency services.

    Earlier Sunday, The Washington Post wrote that Iran, under a deal between the countries, will allegedly supply Russia with a shipment of weapons, which will include Iranian surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and drone shipments. The newspaper pointed out that recently Iranian technical advisers allegedly visited the southern regions of Russia and gave instructions on how to operate their drones.

    Earlier, on September 26, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that Tehran does not consider it right to support any of the participants in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. He did not deny the existence of agreements with the Russian Federation on cooperation in the field of security, but stressed that they do not include the supply of weapons or military equipment.

    On August 29, The Washington Post also reported that the first Iranian drones that could be used in a special operation in Ukraine allegedly arrived in Russia on August 19. Presumably, we are talking about devices of the Mohajer-6 and Shahed series.

    The next day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied this information, noting that The Washington Post "publishes a lot of information stuffing lately." At the same time, Peskov said that relations between the Russian Federation and Iran "are developing dynamically."

    On September 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was shocked by the lack of arms supplies to Kyiv from Israel. According to Zelensky, he understands the difficult situation in Israel itself, but still called on the country to supply Kyiv with air defense systems.

    Prior to that, on September 15, it became known that Israel refused to supply Ukraine with air defense systems (air defense).

    Western countries began to supply Ukraine with weapons against the backdrop of a special operation carried out by Russia since February 24 to protect the Donbass. The decision to hold it was made against the backdrop of the aggravated situation in the region due to increased shelling by the Ukrainian military.
  13. Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 22 October 2022 06: 38
    0
    Frankly speaking, it is surprising to me how methodically and consistently the West itself turns the Turkish elite against itself.

    Not the top, though, but Erdogan personally. They probably see opportunities to displace him in one way or another. And there is a pro-Western contingent in Turkey, this is the army. She has taken power into her own hands more than once and can return. It looks like the West made a bet
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 22 October 2022 23: 35
      0
      Of course, individuals play a role in the strategies of the regions, R. Erdogan is a strong player, Iran in sanctions, like the Russian Federation, also needs allies .. Today, a regional friendly anti-State union is being created: Turkey, Iran, Russia. In such allied relations spheres of influence are divided. Through the efforts of the United States, Georgia is torn off from the Russian Federation, then Armenia departs. Russia has no opportunity to counteract, therefore the entire Asian Transcaucasia is transferred to the sphere of Turkey. The Russian Federation is getting rid of problems with Georgia and Armenia, we are jointly delegating problems with Turkey to them ... There is nothing to share with Iran, except for our own sanctions. Therefore, Iran went to military cooperation with the Russian Federation, although US sanctions will become tougher. There is a strategic war for survival and the United States can only be defeated in alliances.