Ammunition is considered in autumn: will Russia have enough high-precision missiles to win?

October 14 2022 44

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided once again to amuse citizens with hopes for the depletion of Russian arsenals. At the beginning of the special operation, attempts to count the Caliber and Iskanders in the bins of Russia were made at the Pentagon. American intelligence officers claimed that the "Caliber" would end by March 20 of this year. After the recent active shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure, Ukrainian intelligence officers also decided to start counting missiles.

Information about the number of missiles is absolutely secret. Only the Ministry of Defense and a number of high-ranking Russian politicians. But enemy scouts were able to calculate, to within one, the remnants of precision-guided missile munitions in the Russian army. So, before the start of the special operation on February 24, according to the General Staff of Ukraine, the RF Armed Forces had 900 missiles for the Iskander-M OTRK, 500 Caliber missiles and 444 Kh-101 (Kh-555) missiles. According to the results of almost 8 months of the NMD, the stocks of missiles were allegedly reduced to 123 units in the case of the Iskanders, to 272 with the Caliber and to 213 with the Kh-101.

In total, according to Kyiv, Russia had 1844 units of high-precision weapons (this also includes aerial bombs, smaller-caliber missiles, etc.).

In his optimistic calculations, the enemy, apparently, did not take into account the production capacities of the Russian military-industrial complex. In peacetime, the volume of production of "Caliber" could be up to several pieces daily. With the transition of military enterprises to work in three shifts, it is logical to assume that the volume of production has increased many times over, and the arsenal spent since the beginning of the SVO is quickly replenished.

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m.cempbell

-4

14 October 2022 16: 46

I am not an expert, but it is very difficult to believe in several calibers per day. If there are knowledgeable people, can enlighten on this issue
1. Avarron
  
  +2
  
  14 October 2022 17: 27
  
  And what is there not to believe? What is a cruise missile in essence? A pipe stuffed with explosives, with a weak PC and a GLONASS module on board. Several servo drives, a simple turbojet engine, not much more complicated than those that Igor Negoda rivets in a barn, and a couple of buckets of kerosene.
  What is particularly difficult about this?
  1. forcecom
    
    0
    
    14 October 2022 18: 55
    
    I sent your opus to my father, he worked as a military representative on the subject of KR / PKR for 25 years at the head Central Research Institute, as he answered me - he hadn’t laughed like that for a long time.
    From myself, as a person who did not develop or manufacture anti-ship missiles, but operated, I can add that your knowledge in this matter, let's say, is very superficial.
    1. Avarron
      
      +4
      
      15 October 2022 04: 04
      
      Is there really anything to say? Neighing and I can. Come on, tell me what is so mega-complex in a rocket that it can only be produced individually.
      1. qsemjon
        
        -3
        
        15 October 2022 10: 41
        
        And why, then, are military representatives such salaries and enhanced nutrition, if the product is simpler than a meat grinder?
        In fact, they are paid to be preoccupied and puffy.
        
        forcecom
        
        0
        
        17 October 2022 17: 14
        
        you are a stupid person, especially about "enhanced nutrition", and the salaries of military representatives were raised only after they were dispersed under Serdyukov, and a year later, a complaint with military units that had flown in the direction of the military-industrial complex suddenly became possible to generate heat at the thermal power plant, and they began to personally call them again to these "cheek puffers" have returned, because due to low salaries, the people there are often older and after a reduction of 70% of the staff, they simply retired or work somewhere as a civilian.
      2. forcecom
        
        0
        
        17 October 2022 17: 11
        
        but in essence - go work in the military-industrial complex, then you may realize that weapons other than light small arms are "piece" goods, and even if they are produced in hundreds and thousands over the cycle of their "life" they still remain "piece".
    2. Bobik012
      
      0
      
      15 October 2022 14: 27
      
      Well, explain outside the function of the military representative in
      
      at the main Central Research Institute
      
      I have strong fears that the story with your parent is somewhat ... er ... invented
      1. forcecom
        
        0
        
        17 October 2022 17: 29
        
        and I have strong fears that you are another stupid person, before expressing your OBM, I recommend that you familiarize yourself with what used to be called the Granit Central Research Institute and now Granit-Electron Concern JSC, which is part of Tactical Missile Armament Corporation JSC
        If this is not enough for you, you can come to St. Petersburg, I will personally introduce you to my "fictitious parent" and you will personally tell him what Pioneer can do in a labor lesson, but not, now these lessons are called "Technology", it will be fun to watch and listen .
        And the function of a military representative in any production is the strictest control of manufactured defense products, the quality control department does not even come close to its level, so that when it is needed, the weapon does not fail, not the factory worker, not the military representative himself, but a simple Russian guy who will use it.
  2. Vladimir1155
    
    +6
    
    16 October 2022 08: 45
    
    of course, not a couple of buckets of kerosene, a rocket is essentially a tank of fuel, with all your humor, you are right, the rocket is mass-produced, production is debugged, and debugged production is not difficult for specialists working in it
    1. forcecom
      
      -2
      
      17 October 2022 17: 37
      
      production is debugged, mass-produced, but if the production cycle takes 20000 hours, then it cannot be reduced, you can deploy production at a new site, but it will have to be debugged there, which will take time and trained people, which again time. Alas, not everything is so fast, but it’s impossible to “optimize” production, it’s not consumer goods, the phone broke, threw it away, bought a new one, then if something “breaks in time” the price will be the lives of those who operated this weapon at that moment, therefore, they check , double-check and check again so that it does not fail.
      1. Vladimir1155
        
        +1
        
        17 October 2022 19: 54
        
        Have you ever worked in a factory? Do you know the technical processes and organization of production? where did you get 20000 hours from? Do you understand that production is some kind of operation at production sites and workshops? they go in parallel, and in series, and there is always the opportunity to do more, this is not a conveyor, where there is speed and that’s it, I don’t see anyone in the production of missiles that requires 20000 hours of technological process, we do it in the hull shop, bend welding, stamp it in another shop computers make robots, in the third we fill the rocket with fuel, in the fourth we put the engine, in the fifth we make these engines, in the sixth the blades for the engines in the seventh turbines, etc. ... the assembly of the components itself is also fast ... it all depends on the number of workers of course, and on the ability of management to resolve problems and bottlenecks
        
        forcecom
        
        0
        
        18 October 2022 10: 11
        
        And now I work at the Leningrad Metal Plant, which is part of JSC Power Machines, so let's say that I know a little about the organization of production. I took 20000 hours conditionally, bearing in mind that there is a production cycle that cannot be shortened.
        By the way, you painted the "conveyor", forgetting the truth that it is also limited in speed + logistics, delivery of the necessary materials, and so on. But this is solvable, there would be money.
        But with people.
        Let me tell you a story that I witnessed in 2018.
        The prehistory is as follows: in 2011-2012, Power Machines sold its gas-tube production to Siemens. The justification was quite commercial - the gas theme has not given good results since the 80s, steam turbine production has been the "beloved wife" that brings income for many decades, in general, gas workers were a "garbage asset" unable to compete normally in the market with the same Siemens.
        And so the parties agreed, SM gave away an unnecessary asset, returning a block of shares that previously belonged to Siemens, and Siemens "killed" the last competitor in the Russian market. Under the terms of the deal, SM did not have the right to deal with gas turbine topics for 5 years. In general, everyone is happy.
        And then 2014 happened. The events that followed, including the adventures of Siemens gas turbines in the Crimea, I think you either remember or can read.
        In general, the need arose again for Russian gas turbines for the fuel and energy complex, well, then all sorts of "import substitution" of the "state program" and the like loomed, and away we go.
        More precisely, it didn’t start, since until the last year the Russian Federation tried to abide by the rules of the game, and the SM signed a moratorium, then real steps to restore production began in 2017-2018. And here...
        Over the past 5 years, Siemens successfully disbanded the gas special design bureau that he inherited, fired someone, took someone for himself completely, but someone just got very old / died. As a result, we managed to find 15 people of the old composition, despite the fact that not everyone agreed to return to the ashes since everything in the CM had been destroyed by that time and part of the documentation was preserved only thanks to some fans of their other Special Design Bureau who at one time managed to take it out and keep it.
        The question arose - where to get 60-70 competent design engineers with knowledge in a given topic. And now Peter - 5 million inhabitants, on every corner - a tavern, a beauty salon, a nail salon, a law office, and so on. And specialists of the required profile in commercial quantities can only be taken in one place, at JSC UEC-Klimov, which is part of Rostec.
        Well, what to do, a state program has been launched to recreate the gas theme, really huge money has been allocated, but in addition to money, there are TERMS and responsibility for the fact that the deadlines will be missed.
        A little commercial espionage makes it possible to find out the pay scale of the Klimovtsy, and a commercial offer is made to them in various roundabout ways - the salary is about 1,5 times higher than they have. Open market, fair competition, people certainly agree. Voila, SM has people from which to form SKB.
        And here they grab their heads already in Klimov, they have for some month, that is, count 2/3 of the engineers from the design bureau at once, and they also have a defense order, import substitution, the development of helicopter engines to replace the Motor Sitchevskys. Epiksrach stood up to the skies, it came to connecting curators to the showdown, since both enterprises have serious subscriptions.
        Somehow they settled the scandal, the Klimovites were forced to raise the salaries of their designers, some of the people returned back, but the two concerns beat the pots of honey so well.
        And this is in the "peaceful" year of 2018 in one particular enterprise. And now imagine that now, in order to deploy the notorious "third shift", dozens of enterprises must increase their staff by taking from somewhere LITERAL specialists in professions that are not now fashionable. engineers, technologists, workers. Are you sure this is possible? my experience tells me that no, you can recruit students, "young specialists", but it will take time to train them, money will also go away, but it's not so scary with them, but the result is needed now.
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        18 October 2022 20: 31
        
        thanks for the interesting story .... well, firstly, what you write about specialists is fundamentally wrong! for example, in a design bureau you can stupidly recruit young specialists, before your technical university-lmz produced annually 20 specialists in gas turbine engines and 20 in vocational training, that is, 40 certified specialists for your gas design bureau annually, half of them are unsuitable for professional work, but 10-15 can be quite adapted to work , and now the Polytechnic University is probably graduating young specialists, then we start working with young people, the old specialist takes 4 assistants for himself and charges them with all the stupid work, leaving all the creativity and ideas to himself (although as far as I know the average specialist that you lured from Klimov, then how didn’t invent anything, but learned to repeat after the specialist who hired him 10-20 years ago), one of his assistants may not be stupid and you can start instructing him and actually what to do according to your mind .... your KB is really nothing he won’t be able to create a new one, all gas turbine engines were invented 50-100 years ago, all the work there is stupid technical and copying all the junk and using the “similarity theory”, especially for compressors that have generally forgotten how to design 60 years ago, and you don’t write in vain that archives are important to you, in your archive I saw so many blue marks, almost on every bolt, in general, gas turbine engines and pts differ little, a rotor with blades, and even more so equipment for production identical, and even usually smaller in size .... but if it’s about missiles, then your whole interesting story has nothing to do with it at all .... because we are not recruiting engineers, but workers for routine operations, their training will take, if not two days, then a week two
        
        forcecom
        
        0
        
        19 October 2022 12: 45
        
        To clarify, I work at the LMZ in one of the design bureaus and, according to my position, all newcomers go through me, including yesterday's and current students, and I have a good idea of what kind of people they are, and I also have an idea how many of them remain at the enterprise after 1-2 years of work. I will quietly keep silent about such trifles as GOSTs, ESKD, STP, before a student can finally develop something serious, 3-5 years will pass, the option of copying / scaling previous products is a so-so thing, in our case it is applicable very limitedly. I also ask you to take into account that the VTUZ-LMZ ceased to exist as an independent university and now it is a branch of the Polytechnic University with all the pluses and minuses of the branch, several leading design engineers sit "across the wall" from me who lecture at the Polytechnic University - their literal opinion on the quality of education in the branch, I can’t bring it here - they will ban me for a couple of months. In order not to spread too much along the tree, I’ll say this - the age of smart specialists in SKB is really 55+, there is a liquid layer of 35-50 year olds who are still studying, everything younger is not an "oak grove" of course, but the abyss between those who still found the Soviet school and those who passed the exam is huge. Yes, they can be trained - those 25% who will not leave to trade in real estate (well, if not in underpants bras) or in some small narrow-profile offices, but this takes time, and it is in place with the departing / dying truly experienced mentors who have passed and workshops and assembly facilities are getting smaller and smaller. Designers leave and draftsmen come to NX/Solidworks.
        And now I'm not ready to believe that in other areas with suitable human material it is much better.
        Archives are a good help BUT, there is a phrase told to me by one very competent gasman - "5 years, this is the abyss of a generation long development" - I have no reason not to believe him.
        As for your last phrase, that a worker can be trained in 2-3 days, and even 2-3 weeks, I beg your pardon - no comments, because I know how they mess up the shops with a complete set of design and technological documentation and quite competent people.
        I'm not saying that it is impossible to deploy additional production, increase capacity - it is possible and necessary, but it will not work with a wave of a magic wand, it's good if it can be done in a year, and even then I suspect that a number of "childhood diseases" will remain.
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        19 October 2022 21: 21
        
        ahhh... are you the head of the BOT? general staff? therefore, you have an idea about engineering from the words of designers ... everything depends directly on the specialist, if I were your head of the design bureau of the gas turbine engine, then everything would work for me from young specialists to the release of new products
        
        forcecom
        
        -1
        
        20 October 2022 10: 38
        
        no, I am not a personnel officer, but you are right, I am not directly involved in design activities. I don’t want to offend you, but I doubt that everything would work under your leadership, and it’s not about you, but about the general organization and leapfrog of “effective managers” of temporary workers who drag my “team” of uncles, aunts, nephews , who come and go, and everyone has their own "vision" of how to do better (that is, grab yourself more).
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        20 October 2022 19: 50
        
        well, you confirmed that I would improve everything, because those who are working now ... leapfrog .. and not only with you
        
        forcecom
        
        0
        
        21 October 2022 08: 33
        
        for this you would have to be cloned and put in hundreds of positions, (and this is only with us) which, alas, science cannot yet :)
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        21 October 2022 09: 17
        
        without false modesty, if I were appointed the general director of a metal plant, then everything would immediately work out)))) ... but these are, of course, pipe dreams
        
        forcecom
        
        0
        
        21 October 2022 10: 38
        
        no offense will be said, I have already experienced the 5th State Duma, everyone at the first meeting with the creative team promised everything the same
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        21 October 2022 20: 50
        
        Well, didn’t they let you steer? the one that would do better than those five
2. Anatoly-68
  
  +1
  
  15 October 2022 18: 45
  
  somewhere I once read (before the war) - 20 pieces a month, I don’t know how true it is. Now it’s more likely, probably
  1. Vladimir1155
    
    +2
    
    16 October 2022 08: 51
    
    when switching to three shifts, it turns out 60 pieces a month with the intensification of production in wartime, it will probably turn out another 30 percent, that is, about 80 pieces a month ..... yes, they use about as many, not counting the stocks of point U .... also calibers are also produced and produced ...... that is, the total number of missile stocks does not even decrease
    1. Z.E.N.
      
      0
      
      17 October 2022 14: 08
      
      In fact, there were already few "Points" suitable for operation.
      So Vika says, most likely, almost everyone has already used them. It is logical to assume that those with the expiration date of storage are used first of all. Save the new ones.
      Probably 60-70 per month will be real digital
      It matters: how many enterprises produce, rockets, how many enterprises can switch to production
      1. Vladimir1155
        
        0
        
        17 October 2022 15: 33
        
        Quote from Z.E.N.
        It matters: how many enterprises produce, rockets, how many enterprises can switch to production
        
        I agree with you, I assume that missiles are made at one plant, I don’t know about reserve capacities and I assume that this is a military secret, like missile stockpiles, I don’t believe the wiki, there can be a lot of them, they were made continuously for 50 years and they are in secret warehouses for sure yes, even Nagant revolvers are still stored there
        
        Z.E.N.
        
        0
        
        3 December 2022 09: 58
        
        Revolvers, maxims and rifles are no longer in stock
        There was information on TV that the latter had already been removed from storage.
        And that was 20 years ago
Vladimir80

-2

14 October 2022 17: 49

taking into account the fact that, as a result, we buy drones in Iran - maybe the missiles will run out soon ... we will buy in North Korea ... and there will be reports on TV about the defeat of another barn ...
1. krot
  
  +4
  
  15 October 2022 09: 11
  
  And how do you think a shed should look like, where they hide equipment, weapons, ammunition .. Probably like in the Warcraft game, with huge parabalic antennas and a megatron at the entrance?
  Illiterate people who have been given the right to vote are worse than an enemy.
  1. Bobik012
    
    +2
    
    15 October 2022 14: 20
    
    Illiterate people who have been given the right to vote are worse than an enemy.
    
    these are the enemies. Paid, instructed. In the hope of illiterate readers.
    1. Vladimir1155
      
      -2
      
      16 October 2022 08: 53
      
      Quote: Bobik012
      these are the enemies. Paid, instructed. In the hope of illiterate readers.
      
      right! alarmists and spreaders of harmful rumors are enemies and often paid
2. qsemjon
  
  +3
  
  15 October 2022 10: 44
  
  If this crap reaches where WE need it, then what difference does it make where it came from?
3. Bobik012
  
  +3
  
  15 October 2022 14: 15
  
  This is where all sorts of Hohlohaiters salivate that the second army of the world is buying drone scooters in Iran, because there are none of their own. I would like to suggest that they calm down a lot. Because for those whose ass they actively lick, i.e. the first army of the world does not have them either. And there is nowhere to buy, more with Iran in contra. So they spit shit in all directions from impotent annoyance. By the way, the second army of Europe cannot produce such a thing, although earlier there was a whole aircraft factory on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR temporarily occupied by NATO. So, when you put shit in your mouth to spit at others, be careful, you can choke....
Sergey Latyshev

-3

14 October 2022 17: 52

Ha. refer to Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine ... this is a pasta factory.
Here everyone asks our Defense Ministry of the Armed Forces - do you know how to count? Or is it strange in terms of optimization?
And even more so the APU.

And missiles, yes. Subsonic ones are relatively cheap, there, aircraft modellers received world prizes without any Shoigu and Serdyukov. There are a lot of rollers on the internet, how they make SU from sticks, foam plastic and a fan and spin aerobatics on radio control ...
Sydor Kovpak

+2

14 October 2022 18: 06

They don't worry about that. Should be enough for everyone
1. goncharov.62
  
  +2
  
  14 October 2022 18: 54
  
  We must add! We won't rust! Think right...
Jacques sekavar

+4

15 October 2022 09: 54

The point is not when high-precision missiles run out, but who can make more of them, and the one who has more industrial and scientific potential will do more
assault 2019

+4

15 October 2022 09: 55

Considering how our rear services from the Ministry of Defense "prepared" for the NMD, I would not be surprised that these figures from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for high-precision missiles turn out to be correct .....
1. Monster_Fat
  
  +1
  
  15 October 2022 20: 17
  
  T-62s have already begun to be withdrawn from conservation (we are talking about 800 pieces). .. And these are tanks, among which, according to the Ministry of Defense, there are "little" losses ... And these are rockets - consumables. Moreover, it takes a lot of time to assemble one rocket, test it and prepare it for use - the capacities of existing factories are limited, even when working for 24 hours ...
qsemjon

+2

15 October 2022 10: 36

Quote: Avarron
with a weak PC and a GLONASS module on board

The simplest cell phone will do just fine.
All you need to do is reprogram it a bit.

Instead of plastic canisters, spank UAVs with electric motors from a telephone battery.
He scored the inside with everything that explodes and burns, and let this thing fly there to Kyiv.
1. Aylok
  
  0
  
  15 October 2022 19: 36
  
  Probably that's why everyone who is not too lazy to have them? And Khokhols, apparently, are too lazy to tie the phone to a barrel with a charge
Vox_Populi

0

15 October 2022 13: 44

You can "gee-gee-kat" as much as you like, but due to very tough sanctions, problems with high-tech components could already have arisen!
1. Bobik012
  
  +1
  
  15 October 2022 14: 16
  
  problems with high-tech components could already arise
  
  Only in the wet dreams of the American Treasury
Siegfried

+1

15 October 2022 17: 34

there is no doubt that the Russian Federation has the main stock of modern missiles, such as the caliber, Iskander, dagger, X-101 and others, remains as a means of deterring NATO. In Ukraine, they work mainly with Soviet stocks.

The offensive began in the Kherson direction. This is where the consumption of ammunition for artillery and MLRS, especially beyond the Dnieper, can cause logistical difficulties. The enemy will constantly push with small forces, which can become a race for the loss of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the logistics of ammunition of the Russian Federation. This offensive is not sudden, the enemy does not need to rush to use the moment before the defending side reacts.

Perhaps they will attack everywhere every day in order to force them to spend shells and try to make a decisive breakthrough in a few days. Whether this is so will be seen from the composition of these first waves. If the composition is second-rate, if the most trained units, special forces, etc. are not involved, then the offensive as such has not yet begun.

On the other hand, the RF Armed Forces have so far made little use of high-precision munitions for artillery and MLRS (Krasnopol, Tornado-S). These types of ammunition significantly reduce the burden on logistics and increase efficiency. Perhaps stockpiles of guided munitions were also held for NATO, but now the time has come for their use in the Kherson direction.