Military expert told how the Russian army to quickly seize the initiative from the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions are potentially very dangerous, so the Russian army urgently needs to change tactics in order to quickly seize the initiative. On October 4, an expert and military commander Yuri Kotenok told about this on his Telegram channel, offering his own solution.

In his opinion, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation should take possession of the city of Chernigov in order to threaten Kyiv again and, as it were, hang over Kharkov. Moreover, this can be done by the forces of one army corps.

I would take Chernihiv and go no further, I would start digging in. Sumy is Ukrainian, and Chernihiv is Russian. When we left Chernigov this winter, people were on their knees, crying: “Why are you leaving?” But for those who are not waiting for us, "brothers" and "comrades", I would now make such a surprise

- he explained.

The military commissar noted that at the beginning of the SVO in the forests of the Chernihiv region, they tried to organize a partisan movement against the RF Armed Forces, but it was cleared out in a month.

Special forces of central subordination worked. Can't be more central

- he specified.

The expert added that the attention of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian authorities would immediately be drawn to the Chernihiv direction. They will start feverishly transferring forces and resources to the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions from other directions.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine threw everything on the offensive, they are still trying to put pressure on the Kherson region. They accumulate, creating a threat, and will do it all the time, because they have a working infrastructure in the Zaporozhye region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine in this case have the initiative. To intercept it, it is necessary to open a new direction, stretching the enemy's forces, counting on directions where the enemy does not expect a strike. Therefore Chernihiv

- he is sure.

In addition, Yuriy Kotenok pointed out that lately there has been a semblance of hysteria associated with a nuclear war and the “probable” use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine. At the same time, he recalled that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the RF Armed Forces has a huge number of other tools in his hands. Therefore, there is no need to use the “nuclear” against Kyiv.

With adequate command, we are still stronger and can defeat Ukraine without the use of WMD if we start knocking out three things: infrastructure, thermal power plants, bridges across the Dnieper. This enemy will be enough for his eyes so that everything falls down on him

- he stressed.

The kitten noticed that long-range Iranian kamikaze UAVs "Geran-2" (Shahed 136) fly at given coordinates, and all transport and energy infrastructure facilities are stationary, they do not need to be searched for in forests and fields, as machinery the adversary.

In case of problems with intelligence, it is adequate to hit the old Soviet maps. They certainly contain a thermal power plant and the entire infrastructure of Ukraine. Unlike military installations, we know this infrastructure ironcladly - it has not changed, the enemy has not invested in it. You just need to knock it out, destroy it, burn it with a red-hot iron. Why use nuclear weapons? Everything can be done in other ways.

He summed up.
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  1. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 4 October 2022 17: 47
    If we take Chernihiv, then at the same time we need Odessa and Nikolaev, but what will happen in the center? Maybe for this mobilization? Strengthen the center?
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 4 October 2022 21: 48
      To do this, you also need to have troops in the right amount.
    2. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 4 October 2022 21: 56
      Just not "quickly seize the initiative", but when ready (before the end of mobilization)
      And there the General Staff of the Moscow Region is more visible - according to the market situation, which is faster. But the general trend, obviously, is now - to the south (and it is logical - it gives more advantages and more possible moves later ...). Chernihiv is nearby, in theory it would be possible with one swoop, but there is most likely a lot of saturation and heavily fortified positions in 8 months (no fools tea, they understand that they can be beaten from the north first of all). And again, the forest, as in Kharkov, you need a lot of drugs.
      The south is the steppe, where it is easiest to realize the advantages of the RF Armed Forces in technology. Therefore ... everything depends on the success of the mobilization
  2. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 4 October 2022 17: 54
    We have a General Staff with highly paid chauffeurs, in theory, they know better, but I absolutely agree with the opinion of a respected expert on one thing: we need to take something! While heroically defending, we retreat. How long?
  3. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 4 October 2022 18: 17
    here, of course, one can only guess, but there are moments in the current situation that are striking.

    If you have an enemy with a huge preponderance of forces breaking through the front here and there, occupying the territories that you have just accepted as part of the state and threatening to collapse the front altogether, then in such a situation you will do everything possible to prevent a catastrophe. This is clearly not observed, the bridges across the Dnieper are standing, the logistics infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not being particularly touched, even the electricity in the deployment areas of enemy groups has not been touched.

    Perhaps things are not as clear cut as they seem. Perhaps all this retreat movement is only to drive the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the offensive. Here, by the way, referendums are then attributed harmoniously. With a "victory" like with a carrot in front of their noses, they climb and are destroyed simply en masse. Now try to smoke these masses out of the fortifications, if we have to advance.

    Criticism of the General Staff and local commanders is needed, perhaps even a big purge. But there is no doubt that in the present NATO analyzes, the assessments of the combat effectiveness of the RF Armed Forces are completely different than those that are thrown into the public field. A group of 200 rolls out a 700th for half a year. In some places, the ratio of forces reaches 1 to 10.

    Those problems that exist in the army, for example, communications and means of destruction, network-centric control, target designation - here you need to understand that we do not use everything that is, so as not to merge ahead of time what should be used directly against NATO.

    There is a careful demonstration of the possibilities, but in such a way as not to merge what is categorically not worth merging. For example, information transmission channels, communication - use all this now, in a month they will control you through your systems, they will give your artillery the coordinates of your headquarters ...

    Therefore, it is not worth escalating panic, but it is better to demonstrate calmness - calmness in Russian society, this is the first thing that will convince the West of the hopelessness of further confrontation.
    1. Offline 4 October 2022 23: 15
      by whom and with what, of course, you can kill with a word, theoretically, but practically pedal so that they don’t catch up, but if they catch up, then we’ll show them Kuz’kin’s mother .......
  4. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 October 2022 18: 29
    When absolutely true things are said in the comments, understandable even to any storekeeper, but in reality, on the contrary, the question arises why the opposite is true and to the detriment of the Russian Federation. Who benefits from dragging out the SVO and exterminating the patriots of Russia - that’s the most important issue for today, and he goes to the top of the board. Conclusion: Russia is not under the control of patriotic Russian forces, but disguised collaborators acting under the guise of the icon of V. Putin ...
  5. Ulan.1812 Offline Ulan.1812
    Ulan.1812 (Boris Gerasimov) 4 October 2022 18: 41
    that's right, these are the basics of military science, if the enemy has gathered his forces in one place trying to break through our defenses, then you need to strike where he weakened his forces.
    Only now we have nothing to hit. Reserves were not prepared in time. Everything rests on this - initially they incorrectly assessed the situation and did not prepare reserves in time.
    Moreover, we stubbornly hold on to tactics and strategy that have not justified themselves.
    1. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 4 October 2022 22: 08
      Well, it is always possible to scrape together a couple of divisions in Chernihiv from the regular strength of 280 thousand (150 are fighting, and the rest - at home, at bases). The main thing is not to get draped like 1 tank (Kharkov)
  6. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 4 October 2022 18: 48
    acting under the guise of the icon of V. Putin ...

    There was no canonization yet, but he himself saw how some people crossed themselves and bowed in front of the portrait of the president.
    It's crazy for me, but I understand them.
    It is a pity that the central icon (irony, sarcasm, smirk) is polluted by a bunch of fig saints.
  7. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) 4 October 2022 19: 07
    If everyone is talking. that it's time to do something, but nothing happens - then this is either a betrayal. or sabotage... Liman surrendered, after the referendum, now villages and villages are being surrendered one by one in the direction of Kherson. They boasted about the army, but in fact, zilch. Or six months, as they waited until NATO rearmed them? Did you wait? For 2-3 months they took villages head-on, and now in 2 days they are handing over what they conquered for six months? All housewives are already saying that only the latter could allow NATO weapons into Ukraine... But they did. Where did they get their tanks, fuel.... Already in the open in an open field, drones shoot dozens of Ukrainian tanks and whatever. It is clear to everyone that some delays and aggravates the situation. Find this nit and crush it. Moreover, the officers know 1000 percent who it is.
  8. alsi61 Offline alsi61
    alsi61 (Alexey) 4 October 2022 19: 09
    I'm not an expert. But I can’t understand why 1 thousand conscripts will be demobilized from October 147 and at the same time they report that they have already recruited 200 thousand reservists. The conscripts for the demobilization are clearly more combat-ready and detaining them for six months to liberate our territory while the reservists are burning fat and restoring the skills of the reservists suggests itself. Or it turns out when an enemy attacks, conscripts do not fight, but are waiting for reservists. Once again, I am clarifying exactly about the demobilization, and not the spring draft, and it is on our territory.
    1. svit55 Offline svit55
      svit55 (Sergey Valentinovich) 4 October 2022 20: 37
      Right. It turns out that who is now undergoing urgent is not the army. And then what? Kindergarten? And if they are called up in two years, upon mobilization, will they be ready? The MO should be a military man who will immediately understand the problem, and not a firefighter without army experience.
      1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
        Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 4 October 2022 22: 00
        The decision on the next demobilization of conscripts is a rather strange phenomenon during the war. They could deploy units with conscripts along the border in the Sumy, Belgorod, Bryansk regions, which would at least put pressure on the brains of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  9. Fizik13 Offline Fizik13
    Fizik13 (Alexey) 4 October 2022 19: 31
    Thank God I don't read any telegram channel!!!
    And then I myself would become another military expert !!!
  10. Alex D Offline Alex D
    Alex D (Alex D) 4 October 2022 19: 55
    You can stop exports to hit the 5th column in Russia, so the US will be left without money for support.
  11. Hiker Offline Hiker
    Hiker (Dmitriy) 4 October 2022 19: 57
    It seems that the Russian General Staff is on the payroll of either Zelensky or NATO....
    I can't explain the constant news otherwise... left, left, left ..
    1. Offline 4 October 2022 23: 24
      the military in this situation are hostages of the collaborationist policy and nothing more...!
  12. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 4 October 2022 20: 02
    it seems that mobilization takes place exclusively in a stereotyped way. Put together "green" units, which will have access to experience exactly = 0.

    Maybe it's worth sending some of the mobilized immediately to the experimental units on the front line. Give the same BARS 100% of its own strength. Let them decide what to do with them, who to the rear in the reserve, who immediately to the composition.

    The wider the access to experience for the mobilized, the better.

    The exploits of the ZVO forces demonstrate that purely green parts are no good. A fighter must have a landmark. If the composition is 50% green, then they will focus on the experienced, will not run when it is not necessary and will quickly accept the experience.

    ALL units at the front are now the armed forces of the Russian Federation, including the forces of the DNR and LNR. Give them at least 30% of their number right now from the mobilized, and preferably 100%. Experienced units will see for themselves who is good for what. Who to prepare as a reserve in the rear, who to put where. The units themselves will prepare their reserve. It's better than template preparation now.
  13. Moscow Offline Moscow
    Moscow 4 October 2022 20: 20
    Good must be strong (I want to see it). When good is at war with evil, good should not be snotty, be very peaceful, always retreating and always waiting for negotiations with evil and not knowing what it wants. Good should not think that evil will think something bad about good (it will be terribly insulting for good). The snot of good only intensifies evil. The appeals of good to the peacefulness of evil, the eternal desire to talk, assurances not to harm evil and never pursue the forces of evil, this only provokes evil and Satan (the West). It's a shame for this our toothless kindness.
  14. Sergey Offline Sergey
    Sergey (Sergey Berezin) 5 October 2022 00: 54
    We do not yet have so many troops to stretch the front, this one needs to keep reserves on the way. I'm sure we'll hold and strike. It won't seem like much.
  15. Nikolay Volkov Offline Nikolay Volkov
    Nikolay Volkov (Nikolai Volkov) 5 October 2022 03: 22
    as soon as pressure on Chernigov begins with a threat to Kyiv, "negotiations with respected partners" and "gestures of goodwill" will immediately begin ... again Russia will lose the guys and leave ... can't you see that Moscow is not eager to win this war?

    sometimes one gets the impression that both sides are playing the bloody game of the West to exterminate the excess Slavic population ... Zelensky directly, and ours indirectly, but also very confidently with their gestures. Russians and Ukrainians - death, British - iPhones
  16. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 5 October 2022 12: 04
    You have to start by stopping lying. Clear the Defense Ministry and including the General Staff from officials and effective managers, mistresses with epaulettes right up to the general. We need real military commanders, not overripe lampoons.
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