Ukraine may join NATO in a confederate alliance with Poland

President Putin's historic decision to admit the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to the Russian Federation following national referendums will have very serious and far-reaching consequences. On the one hand, Moscow took the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov legally under its protection. On the other hand, Kyiv refused further negotiations and applied for an accelerated entry of Ukraine into the NATO bloc. How can events develop further?

There will be no peace

During his speech on September 27, 2022, dedicated to the reunification of the four former regions of Ukraine with Russia, President Putin once again and, hopefully, the last, ritually called on the criminal Kyiv regime to sit down at the negotiating table. In response, President Zelensky said that any further negotiations with Moscow are possible only after the departure of Vladimir Putin, thus voicing a kind of "ultimatum" that was clearly addressed to a certain circle of people:

It is our state that has always offered Russia to agree on coexistence on equal, honest, worthy and fair terms. Obviously, with this Russian president, this is impossible. He does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with a different president of Russia.

Presumably, from the Russian fifth column, dreaming of the return of the coffee bun at the Vienna Opera and the water bus in London, and at any cost, "Western partners" are now waiting for some action.

Also, the military and ordinary Russians are waiting for the most decisive actions from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, marveling at his inconsistency. Indeed, playing "Leopold the cat" while taking away one region of a neighboring sovereign country after another is rather strange. The “friendly Ukraine, but without Crimea” option did not work 8 years ago. “Peaceful Ukraine, but without Crimea, Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov” will definitely not happen. This, in fact, was once again confirmed by President Zelensky, who immediately after Reunification sent an application for Ukraine to join the anti-Russian NATO military bloc under an accelerated procedure:

De facto, we have already passed our way to NATO. De facto, we have already proven compatibility with the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance. <...> De facto today Ukraine is applying to do this de jure. By a procedure that will be consistent with our value for the protection of our entire community. On an expedited basis. We are taking our defining step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.

An ambiguous reaction followed Kyiv's initiative as part of the North Atlantic Alliance. 8 countries included in the bloc have already spoken in favor: Romania, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland and Slovakia. The problem is that in order to accept a new member, all members of the alliance, without exception, must express their consent. It is believed that Hungary, which has a bunch of unresolved problems with Ukraine, will definitely be against it, as well as Turkey, which will start active trading in exchange for its vote. But soon Germany also expressed its negative attitude towards the reception of the Independent, and the motives of Berlin were explained by the country's permanent representative to the military bloc, Rüdiger Koenig:

Ukraine is not a NATO member. Therefore, there is no obligation for collective self-defence. <…> We also by no means want NATO to take an active part in hostilities.

It would seem that victory, again Putin outplayed everyone? In fact, everything is somewhat more complicated.

There are fears that Ukraine's accession to NATO will automatically entail the joining of the entire bloc to the war against Russia by virtue of Article 5 of the Charter of the alliance on collective defense. But let's take a closer look at what it says:

The Contracting Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be regarded as an attack against them as a whole, and therefore agree that in the event that such an armed attack occurs, each of which, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, shall render assistance to a Contracting Party or Contracting Parties so attacked by immediately taking such individual or collective action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force forces in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of the North Atlantic region.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result of it are immediately reported to the Security Council. Such measures will cease when the Security Council takes the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Is it written here that the accession of an already belligerent country to the North Atlantic Alliance automatically entails obligations for its defense? Sorry, but an armed attack on a full member of NATO is one story, and an attempt by an already warring Ukraine to become a member of NATO in order to save itself is another story. Starting the special operation, Russia did not attack the North Atlantic Alliance, and Article 5 of the NATO Charter does not say anything about the possibility of using "retroactive force". In any case, if we proceed from the letter of the law.

It turns out that nothing good will shine for Ukraine in NATO, except for the role of being highly effective cannon fodder in a proxy war against Russia?

It seems that Kyiv still has the option of joining the alliance with one foot. This is the conclusion of a confederal treaty between Ukraine and Poland, which is part of the North Atlantic Alliance. The logic of the Trimorye geopolitical project requires Warsaw to return its Eastern Creses and, along with them, huge underground gas storage facilities in Western Ukraine. As a result, the Polish Army should go at least to Galicia and Volhynia, perhaps it will move even further on the Right Bank, based on the real successes or failures of the Russian army.

After that, the situation for us will become very complicated. Drawing Poland into the war against Russia on the side of Ukraine will automatically transfer the armed conflict to a fundamentally new level. There are no good options after that, only bad or very bad ones. In order to avoid such a scenario, the RF Armed Forces must build up a powerful strike fist in Belarus and, together with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, transfer military operations to Western Ukraine, cutting off the Kyiv regime from the supply of NATO weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel and lubricants.
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  1. Lev Rudey Offline Lev Rudey
    Lev Rudey (Lev Rudey) 3 October 2022 15: 21
    In short - GO!
  2. Sydor Kovpak Offline Sydor Kovpak
    Sydor Kovpak 3 October 2022 15: 27
    And what will it change? It's too late to join NATO, and it won't help.
  3. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
    Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 3 October 2022 15: 28
    What are you writing about..? Now there is NO way to reach Lviv without a full-fledged conflict with NATO.
    Since if ours suddenly find the strength to go there or to Kyiv, or show any other success, crests will be accepted into NATO in 1 day.
    And they will make us guilty - they will shoot down more passenger planes or make an accident at a nuclear power plant or a chemical attack - there are a lot of options.
    Our miserable populist strategists opened a pandora's box ahead of time with the inclusion of areas half occupied by dill, without freeing it, without backing it up with factual material, offering a dummy and dooming many to savage death. And in addition, they only increased the risk of nuclear war - our speed of movement gives them complete flexibility in taking action. They won't let us go west.
    1. Smilodon terribilis nimis 4 October 2022 20: 51
      Nobody will take them there. To die yourself - please, but there are no other fools.
  4. Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 3 October 2022 15: 50
    Everything can be expected from today's Ukraine, so this option is not excluded. But the Poles are interested in the return of their lands, Lviv first of all, and not a direct war with Russia
  5. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 October 2022 15: 56
    that an armed attack on one or more of them in Europe or North America would be considered an attack on them as a whole

    It's about attacking states. Now, if the Polish Armed Forces are defeated in Ukraine, this article does not include, therefore, diligently beat everyone who crossed the Ukrainian border, both on the ground and in the air, despite the flags. The entry of a NATO country into a war with the Russian Federation dramatically increases the possibility of a full-scale nuclear war, and NATO understands this as well. Poland wants to receive dividends from the Ukraine-Russian war, so it is moving closer to Ukraine, ultimately the future corpse ..
  6. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 3 October 2022 16: 13
    be highly effective cannon fodder in a proxy war against Russia?

  7. silviu Offline silviu
    silviu (Silviu) 3 October 2022 17: 04
    For this purpose, NATO was created against Russia in order to wage a limited war with it on the Eurasian continent, bypassing the American one. The Ukrainian authorities now understand this and that only together with NATO will they defeat Russia in a non-nuclear conflict, since Russia in this case will not dare to use nuclear weapons, including tactical shells, bombs and missiles and lose this military conflict with all the ensuing consequences. And Poland will first help them and gradually get involved with other NATO members so that Russia goes through training bypassing a direct nuclear conflict with the United States
  8. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 3 October 2022 17: 57
    It may or may not join, there will be no sense from it, because there will be no Ukraine as a state. It is no longer in an independent form, and even with the lost territories, which gave more than half of the GDP.
  9. zloman Offline zloman
    zloman 3 October 2022 17: 59
    Do you understand what Belarus is? It's practically Europe. Read the story gentlemen. A good part of Belarusians have family ties in Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine too. It seems to me that many couch analysts who write here, mothers did not go anywhere further than Russia. Although Russia is beautiful, multifaceted. I won't say anything bad. But they fool your head with propaganda. Like us, however.
    1. Vladimir Khrebtov (Vladimir Khrebtov) 4 October 2022 14: 58
      Ukraine is also connected with Russia by many family ties, but this did not stop them from jumping on the Maidan. And it would be okay to shout to yourself so no.
      1. zloman Offline zloman
        zloman 4 October 2022 15: 12
        You have iron logic. It turns out, under this brand to exterminate all Ukrainians? Back in the 90s I came to Pskov, so then your teenagers shouted at me with a bulbash. They threw stones at the bus. I remember it well. And now what?
        1. Smilodon terribilis nimis 4 October 2022 20: 53
          Pskov is more to the Balts. But the cities bordering Belarus, like Nevel, are just that - bulbashi. At least I have seen a lot of them.
          1. zloman Offline zloman
            zloman 4 October 2022 21: 58
            Still, we are a little different in terms of worldview, worldview for the most part. It seems to me.
            1. Smilodon terribilis nimis 25 November 2022 05: 38
              Different with whom?
    2. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 7 October 2022 12: 00
      Quote from zloman
      A good part of Belarusians have family ties in Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine too.

      And evil part , and overwhelming greater , relatives, fate and thoughts in Russia, so ... Either do not appear, or go to your "Tse Europe" or even much deeper yes

      Little, little, AG crushed you ...
  10. zloman Offline zloman
    zloman 3 October 2022 19: 52
    Minuses, but there is nothing to object to. Okhlobystin is a former drug addict. Failed priest. Mikhalkov adapted. Ay. Are you all crazy there?
  11. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 4 October 2022 11: 46
    This is what needs to be done, to transfer the war to Western Ukraine. And there you can train the army for years.
  12. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 4 October 2022 13: 47
    or maybe through the Treaty of Trimorye, which was signed not only by Poland, but also by a dozen other members of NATO and the EU.
  13. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 4 October 2022 17: 42
    Lose your non-existent independence and become part of the land of the gentry? For some, this is just a paper to sign. Where is the world heading?
    1. zloman Offline zloman
      zloman 6 October 2022 12: 44
      What is not, it is not a pity to lose.
  14. The comment was deleted.
  15. isofat Offline isofat
    isofat (isofat) 4 October 2022 17: 51
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 6 October 2022 22: 12
      (Isofat) They studied the genes of the third generation, so during this time, especially in the USA, a cauldron of peoples, they got offspring of both Jewish and Negro impurities (the mothers are different, and the Americans, they carried the whole set of everything) Adolf Shiklgruber has the surname of his stepfather , a difficult fate, that he had a small admixture of Jewish blood on the maternal side, it is quite likely (like Goebbels, Kaltenbrüner, Goering, etc.). Nothing strange, the great Spanish inquisitor Torquemada, who strictly persecuted the Jews, was himself one of the baptized Jews. And a modern example, the great defender of Ukrainianness, President V. Zelensky is a purebred Jew. The great Russian reformer A. Chubais is the same .... Only under these deeds and patriotism are the benefits of the Jewish nation always hidden.
  16. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 4 October 2022 23: 07
    if we imagine for a moment that there were no retreats, that on the contrary, the RF Armed Forces, smashing the enemy, are advancing in all directions - what do referendums and annexations look like against such a background? Could Russia go further in such cases? How could Kyiv react in such a situation? Everything would look so that the empire seizes territories from a weak victim without any problems, annexes them and moves on to annex other territories. And the victim silently and plaintively looking at the world, having received no help, puts on a helmet and goes back to the front to die in an unequal battle. On the way, he stops once more, turning around with a reproach to the world for not providing assistance ... In such cases, the West would be under great pressure to intervene. For Russia, such an alignment would mean the impossibility of liberating other territories and the possible freezing of the conflict, which Russia also does not need.

    Do not forget that everything that is happening and being said now is all aimed at solving the main dilemma - how will this conflict end? Who will win, who will lose? And in this regard, what is happening makes sense. Now Ukraine is no longer in the guise of a victim, but in the guise of an inadequacy who refuses to negotiate (Mask for help here is a separate senkyu). Now Russia is in the form of a country that, after referendums, proposes to end the conflict through negotiations and leave those people who want to live with Russia alone. But Kyiv, against the backdrop of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has now legally refused to negotiate, Zelensky swore for the hundredth time not to even think about negotiations, which in fact is exactly what the Russian Federation needs.

    Now Russia has a reason, legitimacy, to give a military response to the aggressive policy of Kyiv. At the same time, Russia can now move further, occupy those territories that it can. And it will not put pressure on the West to provide assistance, NATO intervention. Russian retreats, proposals for negotiations and Kyiv's refusal are changing the image of Ukraine and Russia.